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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Nov Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [m/m]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Nov Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★★ | Oct Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) [m/m]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Oct Industrial production [MoM]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Oct Industrial production [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Oct Manufacturing production index [MoM]. | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day was marked by dollar selling in response to changing views on US monetary policy and related indicators. The market was also conscious of risk adjustments and the fact that short-term holdings were being liquidated was a factor. Today, we will see whether this trend will continue or settle down. Rebalancing and position adjustments ahead of the weekend are likely to occur and price movements are likely to lack a sense of direction. We would like to check the progress of the digestion of the materials and assume a calm transition.
The previous day, the euro was relatively supported by widespread dollar selling against the backdrop of falling US interest rates. Today is a phase to see whether this trend will continue or whether there will be an adjustment. With a monetary policy event on the horizon, a cautious reaction to new material is expected. On the other hand, attention should be paid to temporary swings due to position adjustments and rebalancing with the weekend in mind. Overall, price movements are likely to be somewhat volatile as the market searches for a sense of direction.
The previous day saw broad-based dollar selling against the backdrop of changing views on US monetary policy, with the pound also supported by this trend. Today, we are in a phase where we will carefully assess whether this weakening trend in the dollar will continue or pause. On the UK side, caution about monetary policy and economic developments remains and positive material is perceived to be limited. The price action has continued the previous day's rally, but has remained calm in search of a sense of direction. In addition, positional adjustments and rebalancing ahead of the weekend require attention.
On the Australian side, monetary policy remains cautious, while in the external environment, the US dollar's ground is a market cue. Risk appetite is volatile, with commodity trends and stock market reactions also likely to influence the situation. The previous day, the market oscillated up and down but remained within a range, with limited directionality. Today is a phase where reactions after materials have been digested are to be assessed. In addition, attention should be paid to rebalancing ahead of the weekend.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
The overall sentiment was focused on digestion of material, as investors were conscious of cautious views on US monetary policy and speculation on domestic policy. In the European session, short-term buying was seen, but the pair failed to cross the upper price milestone and remained sluggish. Thereafter, the buying momentum did not continue and the market stalled, with some sell-offs on the way back. With a lack of new clues towards the end of the session, participants took a wait-and-see attitude. As a result, the day continued to be directionless and the price range was limited.
There was an awareness of the dollar's return following the previous day's US monetary policy and the situation on the European side with the forthcoming inflation confirmation report and current account related announcements. Both material aspects had a limited impact on the market and did not encourage active trading. Therefore, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed from European to US hours. The market lacked extension both up and down, and short-term trading was mixed. As a result, prices remained slightly volatile throughout the day, with little sense of direction.
Weakness in UK indicators and a more cautious view on the economic slowdown and monetary policy led to a heavy upward pressure on the pound. In addition, the uncertain outlook made it easy for position adjustments to occur, and buying did not continue. The pound did test a recovery from the European hour onwards, but stalled due to a lack of positive material. As a result, there was strong selling throughout the day, albeit slightly, and it was a day of strong adjustment.
With no major changes in monetary policy on the Australian side and a lack of material on the US side, the overall environment remained directionless. From Tokyo to Europe, there was a wait-and-see attitude, with only small price movements. In New York, the US dollar was predominantly bought and the Australian dollar was sold against the US dollar. However, the downward pressure was limited and did not reach the previous day's low level. There was some buying back towards the end of the day, resulting in the pair remaining in a range.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Normal time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
Adjustment phase after dollar sell-off and search for direction.
Shifts in views on US monetary policy and related indicators are likely to remain in focus
Environment conducive to consolidation of positions by short-term sources ahead of the weekend.
Assumed range
Around 155.00-156.00
The centre is expected to be around the mid ¥155 range.
At milestones, both up and down, reactions should be assessed.
tactics
Basic stance on range rotation
Response to return to the market on the upside, avoiding a deep sell-off on the downside.
Do not overdo it during slow price movements.
trigger
Wary of acceleration to the downside on a break below the 155.00 area.
Watch out for a short-term buyback on a break above the 156.00 area.
Focus on movements before and after the release of indicators in European and US time.
override condition
Continued unidirectional movement clearly away from the range
In the event of a sudden change in volume
If price movements continue to run counter to the material
risk event
Results of US economic indicators
Statements by financial officials.
Flow changes due to weekend factors
position management
Supports a reduced size than usual.
Shallow gains and clear losses in advance
Be cautious about carrying over the weekend, even if there are unrealised gains
checklist
How much of the impact of the previous day's dollar sell-off remains.
Are there any flows due to weekend rebalancing?
Is the price movement calm after the material has been digested?
Market summary
Selling of the dollar against a backdrop of falling US interest rates, with the euro remaining relatively resilient
Direction is difficult to determine due to adjustments and rebalancing ahead of the weekend.
With monetary policy events on the horizon, reactions to new material are likely to be limited
Assumed range
Lower limit is a milestone-conscious level - near the
Upper limit is the most recent high price range - around
Basic assumption of swing within a range
tactics
The basic stance is to buy at the push of a button.
Keep any upward movement to short-term reactions, and refrain from going too deep.
Prepared to carefully pick up any rebound near the lower end of the range
trigger
Whether or not the highs are reached in the European hours
Interest rate developments and dollar reaction in early US hours.
Check whether the initial movement after the release of an important indicator is biased in one direction.
override condition
Movement clearly below the lower limit of the range
Acceleration to the downwards direction with volume.
Risk-off intensifies, with dollar buying gaining the upper hand
risk event
US economic indicators released
Changes in interest rate outlook as a result of statements by key figures
Accelerated positional adjustments ahead of the weekend
position management
Size is more restrained than usual.
Priority for gains is given to short-term targets.
Ensure early withdrawal in case of assumed denial
checklist
Confirms the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Verify that the initial response in European time is within expectations.
Prepare for irregular price movements due to weekend factors.
Market summary
While the pound is likely to be underpinned by the aftermath of the previous day's broad dollar sell-off, it is also prone to swinging up and down due to pre-weekend adjustments
On the material side, the situation is a mixture of shaky US interest rate expectations and economic caution on the UK side, which makes it easy to be cautious about following the situation.
The price movement is aware of the upward trend, but is likely to erase the return when the buying momentum slows down.
Assumed range
Around 1.3200-1.3450
The centre is based on a back-and-forth between the lower 1.3300s, with the assumption that a breakout above or below is likely to be pending material.
tactics
The emphasis is on tempo, with range rotation as the axis, picking up on the bottom and prioritising profit-taking on the top.
Do not chase when there is an upswing, and choose to forgo if the push is shallow.
The downward push is based on the assumption that buy-backs are likely to occur, and will be phased in after confirmation of the rebound.
trigger
Above is a firming above the 1.3400 area to see if the short-term buyback continues.
Below, a move to the lower side of the range is expected with a break below the 1.3280 area and a weak return
The entry into Europe and early US hours is a time when the flow is likely to change, and it is easy to react to headlines on indicators and key figures' statements.
override condition
If the price clearly breaks below the 1.3200 area and continues to be heavy to the upside even after a return, the assumption of a buy rotation will be removed.
Conversely, if the push remains shallow above the 1.3450 area, refrain from selling rotation and switch to a wait-and-see approach.
risk event
There is a risk that statements or indicators relating to the US monetary policy outlook could cause interest rates to change sharply.
Changes in UK economic-related indicators and policy expectations could lead to pound-led price movements
Note that rebalancing and positional adjustments with the weekend in mind can cause moves that ignore technicals.
position management
Split smaller than usual and withdraw early if the initial response is unfavourable.
Gains are made in stages before the upper range limit and losses are made mechanically, with the aim of settling outside the expected range.
When unrealised gains are made, they are raised to near the opening price to reduce the risk of reversal.
checklist
Check the reaction of US interest rates and stocks to see whether they are dollar- or pound-driven.
Determine the reversal sign near the upper and lower limits of the range and the establishment of the range after the breakout.
Inspect for weekend adjustment flows on entering Europe and in the early US price range.
Market summary
The Australian side continues to take a cautious stance on monetary policy, with the US dollar's grounding being the main cue in the external environment.
Risk appetite unstable, with phases likely to be linked to movements in stock markets and commodities
The previous day swung up and down but remained within a range, with limited directional movement.
Assumed range
Around 0.6600 - around 0.6700
Assume a transition between price zones that are easily recognised both above and below.
tactics
Basic policy of range rotation
Do not chase sudden price increases; priority is given to confirming a rebound or stall.
trigger
Reaction near the upper or lower end of the range
Increased volume between European and New York hours
Short-term directional changes in the US dollar
override condition
Continued clear movement away from the range
When price movements are biased in one direction and continue with time
risk event
Indicators relevant to the USA
Abrupt changes in the stock market
Adjusting positions with the weekend in mind
position management
Conscious of a more restrained size than usual.
Unrealised gains are split and confirmed.
Early review in case of different movements than expected
checklist
Is the flow of US dollars consistent?
Does it diverge from equities and commodities?
Are there any irregular price movements due to weekend factors?
AI postcards: today's market
review
Returns were slow and lacked a sense of direction amid a trend of prioritising the digestion of materials.
summary
A mix of cautious views on US monetary policy and speculation on domestic policy kept active trading in check
The buy-back in the European hour was temporary and did not lead to any upward movement.
Price volatility was limited throughout the day, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time was characterized by small movements and a search for direction.
There were some signs of a recovery towards the end of the European hour, but the situation stalled due to the awareness of the milestone.
Trading was thin at the end of the day and remained in a sideways range.
Background and materials
Uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary policy remained a concern.
Intermittent awareness of observations on domestic policy led to a mix of yen buying and selling.
Lack of new material and mainly digestion of existing material
Technical memorandum (short term)
Continued to remain within the recent range, making it difficult to see short-term direction.
Easy to be aware of upside potential in the return phase
Continued firings around the short-term line
Technical note (mid-term).
The medium-term trend is holding at a high level.
Waiting for material to determine the strength of the trend
The predominant view is based on the assumption that the range will continue.
impression
Impression that market participants are refraining from aggressive position building.
A day when there was a conscious lack of material to lean in one direction.
The calm ground continues to wait for the next clue.
trade observations
Short-term trading required an awareness of the limited nature of the price range.
It is important to avoid forced follow-up and to be prepared to react.
It was felt that careful decisions needed to be made, checking for changes in the environment.
checklist
Have we seen a reaction after all the major materials have been exhausted?
Are you aware of price movements at the upper and lower price milestones?
Are they refraining from unreasonable trading until they have a sense of direction?
review
Continued holding amid lack of material clues, resulting in small changes.
summary
A day of waiting for new material while continuing the trend after the previous day's US monetary policy
There was a wait-and-see attitude in both Europe and the US ahead of key indicators.
Calm market environment with no signs of direction setting.
Today's price movements
European hours were limited to ups and downs within a narrow range.
Limited movement in US hours, mainly short-term trading.
Strong range-like price movements throughout the day.
Background and materials
Consciousness of the return of the dollar following the previous day's US monetary policy.
In Europe, awaiting inflation confirmation reports and current account-related announcements.
None of the materials had a limited impact and did not lead to active trading.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Continued to hold at recent highs
Mixture of pushes and returns, with little sense of direction.
Short-term indicators are on a sideways trend
Technical note (mid-term).
Impression of an ongoing phase of adjustment to higher prices after a rise
The trend itself is maintained but acceleration is weak.
impression
Cautious mood with long waiting periods for materials.
It wasn't a phase where we were forced to take direction.
trade observations
A day of mainly short-term trading and risk management is important.
A range awareness response was required.
checklist
Check the passage of key materials.
Watch for changes in price movements at high levels
Position adjustment until next direction.
review
Weakness in UK indices restrained upside, with a small but strong day of selling and strong adjustment.
summary
Wary of an economic slowdown and a cautious stance on monetary policy.
Returns were limited and lacked direction.
Today's price movements
There was a return test towards the European hour.
Selling was easy at higher prices and the rebound did not last.
Overall, the market remained within a range.
Background and materials
UK economic indicators weakened, leading to a cautious view of the outlook
Aggressive buying was held back due to uncertainty over monetary policy.
Relative materials were scarce against the US dollar, and the main focus was on adjustment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Consciousness of the upward pressure near the recent highs.
Shape of the short-term leg is likely to allow for a return sale.
Little sense of direction, phase of waiting for a reaction.
Technical note (mid-term).
Medium-term trend holds but momentum slows
Continued firings around key levels
Next material waiting time
impression
Impression of position adjustments amidst material difficulties.
Price movements were calm and not overly biased.
trade observations
In the short term, it is useful to take a wait-and-see attitude, rather than forcibly pursuing a response.
From a medium-term perspective, we need to carefully assess changes in the flow.
checklist
Content of UK-related indicators and how the market perceives them.
Returns and stalls in key time periods
Volume and price movements around key levels
review
Lack of direction amidst material difficulties and selling during the New York hour, but remained in a range.
summary
A day of wait-and-see attitude across the market, with a lack of new material in both Australia and the US.
Selling and buying swapped at different times of the day, but overall the price movement was calm.
Today's price movements
A narrow range of traffic continued from Tokyo to European hours.
The Australian dollar was slightly restrained on the upside as the US dollar was bought into New York time.
Downward pressure was limited and there was some recovery towards the end of the day
Background and materials
No new clues on the Australian side on monetary policy, limited market impact
On the US side, there were few high-profile economic indicators and key figures speaking, and active trading was restrained.
Overall, there was a strong atmosphere of waiting for materials, with movements centred on short-term flows.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The situation has remained within a certain range in the recent past, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.
Short-term price range is likely to be limited due to a mix of return sales and push-backs.
Minor ups and downs need to be watched until a clear break is made.
Technical note (mid-term).
The medium-term trend is for the price to continue to hover at a high level.
In a phase to determine whether the trend is continuing or entering an adjustment, awaiting the emergence of a decision point
Conscious of the possibility of increased volatility depending on changes in the environment
impression
Hard to lean in one direction and a difficult day for trading decisions.
Developments where the need to carefully track the differences in price movements between time zones is felt.
trade observations
A range-based response was required, without forcing a position.
In short-term trading, it is important to be aware of the need to make decisions on gains and withdrawals as early as possible.
checklist
The schedule of important indicators and key figures' statements is checked in advance.
Risk management is in place for range-bound markets.
Have the option to wait and see until the price moves.
FX Diary.