Market summary

The previous day, while there was some pushback, liquidity was thin and the price range was limited.

With the month-end rebalancing coming up today, the ground is ripe for sudden flows to create short-term swings.

Japanese price-related indicators and authorities' attitude are restricting the upside, while on the US side there are limited clues after the holidays.

This is a phase in which the market is likely to continue to adjust and wait and see at higher prices, and reactions to materials are likely to move the market.

Assumed range

Today, the ground is easy to test both up and down, and a certain degree of swing is expected even if it is difficult to spread out.

This is a situation where you want to check the depth of the downward push, while being aware of the level at which the push is likely to be made.

The focus is on how far the short-term flow will work, with a difficult zone of return to the upside remaining.

Overall, the basis for the continuation of the higher range is based on the continuation of the higher range.

tactics

Today, we will be based on range rotation and will be cautious about swings during times of low liquidity.

If there is a push, there is room to take it in the short term, but avoid going too deep.

Consider targeting light adjustments in situations where the return is heavy, and focus on early withdrawal if momentum is weak.

Prioritise flexible standing in preparation for short changes of direction.

trigger

The upward direction is to check whether the high resistance zone is exceeded and to use the presence or absence of momentum as a criterion for decision-making.

The focus on the downwards direction will be on whether the market will break below the zone where pushback is likely to take place.

Be aware that prices tend to slip slightly during times when month-end flows tend to be concentrated.

The direction of flows out after the US market reopens is also likely to influence short-term decisions.

override condition

If the upper resistance zone is clearly breached and the push continues, the assumed range should be revised.

The scenario is negated once the push does not work on the downwards direction and the weak price movement continues.

Tactics also need to be reconfigured in the event of a one-way run due to sudden flows.

If volatility falls sharply, the decision to curb the entry itself will be considered.

risk event

Rating changes in price-related indicators in Japan.

Sudden swings in the direction of the yen due to statements by Bank of Japan and government officials.

Large flows due to month-end rebalancing.

Sudden change in US interest rates and concentration of flows after the holidays.

position management

The size is kept to a smaller than usual size and the structure is designed to have enough room for sudden swings.

Gains are set shallowly and are secured in stages, assuming a difficult stretch of ground.

Losses are mechanically executed at a point clearly outside the expected range.

In the event of a reversal, the emphasis is on waiting for the next entry opportunity, rather than forcing the market to persist.

checklist

Time of occurrence and direction of month-end flows.

Reaction and momentum around the upper resistance zone.

Availability of buying support in the push zone.

Market summary

Although there was a test of the highs on the previous day, liquidity was thin after the start of the public holidays in Europe and the market continued to lack a sense of direction.

With European price-related indicators and economic data due today, there is an awareness that month-end factors and short-term flows are likely to intersect.

The focus is on whether a test to higher prices can be made, while taking into account the possibility of temporary swings due to indicator results and rebalancing demand.

While the overall price movement is calm, fluctuations with position adjustments by short-term forces need to be watched carefully.

Assumed range

Lower limit around the 1.15s.

Upper limit around 1.16

While there is still room to test a return to higher prices in the short term, volatility is expected to be restrained depending on liquidity in the European time zone.

Be aware that if the month-end flow is biased, there is a tendency for up and down blurring.

tactics

Basic tactic is range rotation.

We believe that it is useful to avoid excessive following while checking for reactions in higher price areas, and to check for an immediate rebound in lower price areas.

It is advisable not to force a move during times when there is little sense of direction, but to wait for a return to liquidity.

If month-end flows intensify, it is necessary to manage not to be caught in a short period of swing

trigger

To the upside, will a clear move above the highs be made in the European time zone?

On the downside, the downward trend is likely to continue with a slow return to the bottom in Asia-Europe early in the day.

Watch for short-term flows to react if price indicators or economic data deviate from expectations

The timing of the return of participants in the main markets after the public holiday is also a clue

override condition

When there is a clear sell-off at a higher price and it is pushed back

If buying support is weak at lower prices and the momentum of the return remains lacklustre

If the end-of-month supply-demand bias becomes more pronounced, making it difficult for short-term assumptions to function.

When the flow is fixed in one direction triggered by an indicator

risk event

Price-related indicators in Europe.

Economic data for the euro area and major countries

Sudden flows due to month-end rebalancing

position management

Size should be more modest than usual and avoid entry during periods of low liquidity.

Be aware of the most recent reaction zone for gains and refrain from going too deep.

Losses are based on a clear exit from the range and avoid excessive persistence.

Leave room for immediate response to any swing that is likely to be involved.

checklist

Check price indices and reactions to economic data.

Is there a bias towards month-end flows?

Is there a day-to-day change in reaction at the high and low end of the range?

Market summary

The previous day saw a test of the direction of higher prices, but from European hours onwards, participation was limited and the situation remained directionless.

Today's phase is likely to be mixed with month-end-specific flows, and there is an awareness of the possibility of slightly more erratic price movements than usual.

Reaction to the US interest rate debate and UK budget-related discussions has also been limited, and the impression is that the price range continues to be easily restrained.

Assumed range

Today, a relatively narrow range is expected around the previous day's highs and potential lower pushes.

The upper price is likely to be slower around the milestone, while the lower price is poised to be supported once in the recent low zone.

The situation warrants caution just in case of temporary swings to the upside or downside due to month-end flows.

tactics

The basic policy is centred on range rotation, with the assumption that growth either up or down is difficult to read as sustainable.

Even if a test of higher prices resumes, follow cautiously and consider a short-term sell-back if there is a sell-back.

If a push is formed, avoid excessive lots and be aware that it can be contained in a short time, checking the momentum of the return each time.

trigger

The upside is expected to be a short-term turning point, with a clear break above the previous day's highs.

On the downside, the situation is likely to be marked by a break below the vicinity of the European time lows as a clue to a momentum shift.

As for time zones, month-end flows are likely to be affected in the early part of Europe and into New York, and the milestone should be reached with caution.

override condition

If the upside test stalls without momentum and bounces back repeatedly before the milestone, the upside scenario recedes.

If the downside break does not proceed and there is little reaction at the push points, the view of a return dominance may be broken.

Note that if price movements are extremely thin despite month-end flows, the expected swing is unlikely to work.

risk event

Irregular flows associated with headlines related to US interest rate developments and month-end rebalancing.

Additional reports and statements related to the UK budget.

Sudden increase or decrease in position adjustments due to weekend factors.

position management

Lots are kept more restrained than usual and are prepared for sudden swings.

Secure gains early, even if they are small, and do not persist in slow price movements.

The policy is to place losses at levels slightly above the milestone and to retreat quickly on unintended growth.

checklist

Are month-end flows affected?

Is there sustained momentum to test highs or break lows?

Are there unbalanced liquidity changes in the European and New York hours?

Market summary

In Australia, inflation indicators and capital investment are perceived to be resilient, and speculation over monetary policy is supporting the Australian dollar.

The US dollar's recovery has been slow amid smouldering interest rate cut speculation in the US, and overall, the market is perceived to be risk appetite-neutral.

Although there was a test of higher prices on the previous day, the market has shifted to a directionless struggle with limited participation since Europe, and today is considered to be a phase that requires attention to flows due to month-end factors.

Assumed range

The expected range is centred on 0.6480-0.6620, with price movements in the high 0.64s to low 0.66s.

While assuming a temporary swing due to the end-of-month rebalancing, we would like to create a scenario based on the assumption that the market is likely to push at the lower end of the range and remain sluggish at the upper end of the range.

tactics

The basic stance is to buy at the push point, and if there is a downward push to the push zone formed during the previous day's adjustment phase, the entry is considered in stages.

On the other hand, we will avoid chasing higher prices at the upper end of the range and will carefully select new positions, bearing in mind that short-term return flows are likely to occur.

trigger

The key to the upside is whether the market can firmly break above the previous day's highs and establish itself from Asia to European hours, in which case it will be easier to assume a shallow upward phase of the push.

On the downside, if a clear break below the previous day's push zone occurs, we will reassess the short-term upside scenario and see if a test in the direction of the lower end of the range is likely to strengthen.

override condition

If the closing price is significantly below the previous day's low and the return is limited, the assumption of a push-buy will need to be flattened and the risk of a break below the lower end of the range will need to be assessed as a priority.

Also, if a US indicator triggers a sharp move in one direction followed by a large unwinding in the opposite direction, we will consider a scenario correction as a sign of increased short-term reversal risk rather than trend-following.

risk event

Intermittent flows associated with month-end rebalancing are likely to occur today, and normal technical levels may temporarily become less functional

The US dollar in general is likely to swing depending on US consumer spending and inflation indicators and US interest rates, and the Australian dollar should be wary of the increased volatility it could be caught up in against the dollar.

position management

As price movements are difficult to read due to month-end factors, the size of new positions will be more conservative than usual, and the risk level will be kept at an acceptable level in the event of unexpected spikes.

The basic policy is to take profits at each milestone in the range, without being greedy, and to thoroughly manage orders before and after the release of an index by clarifying the stop-loss level in advance.

checklist

Today's price movement and volume against the previous day's high and push zone

The direction of US interest rates and stock markets and the general reaction of the Australian dollar to them.

Temporary spikes before and after the release of key indicators and the strength of the subsequent pushback

review

The market oscillated up and down during Tokyo hours, and remained within a certain range in Europe and New York with little sense of direction.

summary

Despite intermittent US interest rate-related headlines and statements from key figures, reactions were limited and the market as a whole remained cautious throughout the day.

Domestically, there was awareness of the stance of the foreign exchange authorities, but this did not lead to positive clues, and materials affecting short-term flows were narrowed down.

Multiple market participants chose to wait and see, making it difficult to widen the price range and creating no sense of direction.

As a result, the price movement was calm, with a lot of back and forth around the major levels, and a range was perceived throughout the day.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo time, there were ups and downs between the milestones, and the flow was limited despite a temporary widening of the price range.

Even in European hours, reactions to indicators and interest rate developments were small and there was no significant movement away from the range from the previous day.

The direction remained unchanged through the New York time, with the reaction to the material remaining calm and the price range remaining constant.

Overall, the situation remained within a range from a broad perspective, with brief swings in between.

Background and materials

Despite US interest rate-related topics, their impact was limited and their influence on price movements was modest.

Key figures and market views were sporadic, but not strong enough to influence direction, and a cautious attitude prevailed.

On the Japanese side, attention was focused on the attitude of the foreign exchange authorities, but this did not lead to positive material and reactions were subdued.

There were no major fluctuations in the external markets, and the wait-and-see attitude of the exchange rate as a whole spilled over into the USDJPY.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, there were many reactions around the milestones, and the trend of repeated small ups and downs was recognised.

Price movements tended to settle around moving averages and short-term momentum was limited

Volatility was suppressed and short-term support and resistance were perceived to be in place

In the short term, it was easy for the range structure to continue with little sense of direction.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the main levels remained in the wider range band, with a continued awareness of the

Trend indicators showed no significant changes and the overall structure remained calm

The position of the highs and lows did not change significantly, and the situation remained wait-and-see from a medium-term perspective.

There were few directional clues and the market continued to wait for material

impression

Reactions to materials were quiet and the overall impression was of a calm market.

Several markets were less likely to take risks aggressively, and the USDJPY was also affected by this, with a milder environment.

Positional adjustments were easily noticed in the run-up to important events, and reactions were limited in some aspects.

trade observations

Despite short-term ups and downs, it was difficult to get a sense of direction, and I had the impression that there were many situations where entry decisions required caution.

While the reaction around the milestone was easy to confirm, momentum was difficult to sustain and strategies to increase margins were difficult to implement

Overall, the range assumption view was more likely to be effective and suitable for operations that avoided going too deep

checklist

Reaffirm the short- and medium-term range structure.

Compare key level responses with daily records

Organise to avoid overlooking the phases of changing material reactions.

review

A day of continued heaviness in Tokyo and Europe, but a buying back in New York helped to lift the day.

summary

In the early stages, the return was held back by concerns over the European economy and a cautious attitude towards the policy outlook, and selling continued to prevail for a period of time.

Thereafter, the market was directionless and oscillated easily to the upside and downside, partly due to a wait-and-see attitude towards the US indices and partly due to thin liquidity.

In the New York time, the market was inclined to buy back, and the recovery from the downward pressure phase progressed, absorbing the intraday weakness.

Overall, the impression was of a mix of multiple materials, but with a buying dominance that settled down towards the end of the day.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time was marked by a return to the market and it remained difficult to test the upside.

In the European time as well, selling was dominated by a lack of direction, and the trend was slightly pushed back.

The buying became easier as we entered the New York time, and the recovery trend absorbed the downward pressure.

Throughout the day, the price movement was range-bound, with a mixture of waiting for a return and looking for a push.

Background and materials

Weakness in consumption-related indicators in Europe was a concern, and the prospect of sluggish economic growth led to a heavy upward pressure.

Despite speculation over the ECB's stance, it remained difficult to find a positive direction due to a lack of clues

On the US side, there was a cautious attitude ahead of the release of the index, and reactions were more likely to be scattered amid overall thin liquidity.

Multiple external factors made it difficult to establish a sense of direction during the day.

Technical memorandum (short term)

While there was an awareness of a return to the market in the short term, it was easy to buy back in at lower prices and the market was range-bound.

Reactions were sporadic around the short-term line, and the trend continued to alternate between selling and buying.

The small ups and downs continued, reflecting market sentiment to find out the direction of the market.

In the short term, the balance between higher and lower prices was easy to maintain.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, there continued to be a mix of constant returns and pushes, and it was difficult to confirm a clear trend.

While there was a sense of a rebound over the past few days, there were also some moments of caution remaining on the upside.

Reaction was slow around the mid-term milestones and there was a strong impression of a wait-for-materials attitude

The trend remained more holding than directional, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailed.

impression

During the day, there was a mixed bag of material, and the balance between selling and buying seemed unsettled.

There were many short-term ups and downs, with real demand and adjustment orders influencing the market.

Although buying was dominant towards the end of the day, the general feeling is that the market is still on a cautious note.

There appears to be a market-wide attitude of waiting for the next clue.

trade observations

There was a mix of return selling and push-buying, and the impression was that there were many situations where it was difficult to fix the direction.

It was easy to get caught up in the short-term back-and-forth, and the timing of entry continued to be difficult.

Although there was a certain clarity in the buyback in the New York hour, overall it was a day that required careful management.

The environment seemed to prioritise checking movement rather than aggressively targeting it

checklist

Is there any bias in the response in key time zones?

Is the causality between material and price movements overly predetermined?

Are you entering with unreasonable directional expectations?

review

In Tokyo and Europe, the market continued to be dominated by the return of selling, while in New York, the direction of the market remained limited, despite buying.

summary

The UK's fiscal-related topics and the US interest rate observation were of concern, and reactions to the material continued to be sought during the day.

Weakness in the return phase was seen in Tokyo and Europe, and caution remained in testing the upside

In New York, buying returned to the downside, but the price movement did not gain momentum beyond the milestone, and remained calm overall.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, the return was sluggish, continuing the trend of the previous day, with Tokyo being aware of the heaviness of the upward trend.

In Europe, too, there was a lack of direction, with mainly small price movements as the market continued to wait for material.

In New York, the market was easy to buy and there were some downside moves, but not enough to clearly break through the milestone.

Background and materials

The UK's budget-related details remained in focus, with cautious views on fiscal management and growth prospects

While there was an awareness of the possibility of a rate cut in the US, there were divergent assessments of the index results, and the environment remained difficult to determine the direction of the dollar.

The market as a whole remained in a mood of waiting for events, with price movements dominated by short-term flows.

Technical memorandum (short term)

There were some short-term downside moments, which raised awareness of the ease of buying back into the market

On the other hand, the upside was slow around the milestone, and upside growth was easily restrained.

The short-term return trend was maintained, but the direction remained unclear.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the situation remained in a range, and the trend was likely to change depending on the material

Although there was a sense of stability on the downside, there was a lack of material to aggressively test the upside.

A phase of renewed awareness of both UK and US indicators and policy outlook was seen as necessary for the medium-term trend to become clearer

impression

Price movements during the day were subdued, with limited scenes of overreaction to material.

There was a strong impression that the market remained directionless, with a mixture of buy-backs and sell-backs.

It was felt that the quiet transition was likely to continue until the next clear decision point.

trade observations

Reaction was slow around the milestones, and cautiousness was often required to follow up aggressively.

The environment remained contrarian in the short term, with firm downside prices but limited upside growth.

Flow bias tended to occur at different times of the day and it was easier to function in a wait-and-see attitude for the start of the movement.

checklist

Check reactions around milestones.

Organise Anglo-American indicator schedules.

Pay attention to short-term flow bias

review

Tokyo and Europe were dominated by a slight back-and-forth, but in New York, buying prevailed and the previous day's top price was slightly higher.

summary

Overall, there were many hours of lack of directional movement amidst the continued focus on Australian price-related issues.

In the second half of the year, there were occasions when the market was aware of the swing in interest rate observations on the US side, and it was easy to pick up a little of the pushback.

Although there has been little change in the major trends, the ground continues to be prone to detailed short-term supply and demand reactions.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the market lacked clues and remained in a narrow range.

The same trend continued in the European hour, with a strong wait-for-materials attitude.

In New York, buy-backs prevailed, confirming the previous day's slight upward movement.

Background and materials

The outlook for monetary policy is being treated cautiously amidst lingering caution about price developments in Australia.

In the US, the direction of the dollar continued to be somewhat difficult to determine due to a sense of uncertainty about the outlook.

Shifts in risk appetite and swings in commodity markets also affected the short-term price movements of the Australian dollar.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Lower prices continued to be prone to constant support, and buyers were aware of the structure of the market at the pushpoint.

Although the short-term return trend remains, the balance of the market remains vulnerable to a return to the upside.

The movements were mainly to confirm the persistence of the short-term trend, with minor ups and downs.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, there is a lack of clear direction and the market continues to be range centred.

The highs and lows of the past few weeks were easily recognised and continued to hold with price adjustments.

The medium-term trend maintains the characteristics of being sensitive to the external environment.

impression

The day was marked by a combination of small price ranges and up/down swings, which showed the market's cautious approach to materials.

Although there has been some short-term movement, the overall situation lacks a sense of broad direction.

The impression remained that the flow was still sensitive to changes in the external environment, and that the flow was easily swayed by clues.

trade observations

There were periods of short-term buying dominance, as the pushback was introduced.

However, there was also a cautious approach on the return, and caution continued to be required in following the market.

The day seems to have been suitable for a response centred on fine rotation within a certain price range.

checklist

Check announcement times and market reactions to key material.

Confirmation of the continuity of the short-term trend and the strength of the push

Check the reaction of the upper and lower limits within the expected range.