Market summary

The previous day, the situation can be described as a phase in which the authorities' caution to intervene has eased somewhat, and the movement to test the upside has prevailed and the price has remained in a high range.

US interest rates are likely to be volatile ahead of key indicators, and the dollar is likely to be pushed higher, while profit-taking is also likely to occur at higher levels.

An environment in which relative interest rate differentials are likely to be perceived as a result of divergent assessments of prices and economic indicators in Japan and no significant change in the Bank of Japan's stance.

Today, the scene is to see whether the price movement will settle at a higher level while continuing the previous day's strong trend in response to these trends.

Assumed range

The lower price is expected to be lower from a level that is seen as a candidate for a push, while waiting for clues and avoiding a rush to sell.

The upside is likely to be aware of the previous day's highs and milestones, and it should be noted that if the momentum of the return slows, the situation may be sluggish or may be subject to adjustment.

Basically, assume a trend of profit-taking at the upper end of the range and a push test at the lower end, but also be aware of room for range expansion depending on events.

In the short term, the situation calls for checking price movements during Asian hours and reactions after the European entry, to see where the centre of the day's range will be formed.

tactics

The current combination of fundamentals and charts suggests a flexible response based on the image of buying on the downside and selling on the upside in the short term.

If a shallow push is made in Tokyo time, consider buying down in stages while avoiding excessive contrarianism, and reconfirm the time frame and material for a deeper push.

The situation is such that the priority is to prioritise the image of testing with smaller lots after confirming the momentum and volume of the break, taking into account the risk of stalling at the high end of the price range.

Overall, the situation should not be biased in one direction, but be aware of the short-term game, adjusting position sizes and holding times in preparation for sudden changes around events.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the previous day's highs and easily recognised milestones, and the ability to maintain these levels, will be a key factor in determining whether to follow the market.

The downside is that a clear move below the previous day's low area or the zone of potential pushes is likely to be considered as a signal that an adjustment is about to take place.

The key time frames are flows in early London and price movements before and after US indices in New York time to determine whether a trend is in place or not.

Situations to watch out for temporary spread widening and volatility when economic indicators and key figures that tend to influence US interest rates deviate significantly from expectations.

override condition

The upside scenario needs to be revised if the upside breakout at the highs becomes deceptive and pushes back to the middle of the range in a short period of time.

In terms of the downside, if it is confirmed that the market rebounded quickly after a temporary break and acted as a push towards the end of the day, the scenario of an entry into adjustment may weaken.

When sudden price movements occur during periods of low volume, it is easy to lose confidence in technical signals, and it is a phase when you want to check the subsequent price movements before revising your judgement.

Note that if the trend continues to move clearly outside the assumed range and a trend reversal is confirmed on more than one time leg, the original assumptions themselves will need to be updated.

risk event

If the results of indicators directly related to interest rate observations, such as US employment and inflation-related indicators, deviate significantly from forecasts, the direction may change in a short period of time.

In the event of a Bank of Japan-related statement or a sudden news report related to monetary policy, it is easy for the yen side to take the lead, making it difficult to respond to the situation based on technicals alone.

Be wary of sharp fluctuations with unbalanced positions if there are articles of observation on verbal intervention or actual operations by the foreign exchange authorities.

The situation also calls for attention to the possibility that a sudden change in risk appetite, such as geopolitical factors or sudden changes in the stock market, could upset the balance between demand for dollars and yen.

position management

Entry size should be kept slightly smaller than usual, and be careful not to rush into additional positions before, during and after events or at high price points.

The basic approach is to settle in instalments just before the milestone, and to limit risk by gradually raising the stop for positions with unrealised profits.

Market summary

The previous day was dominated by euro selling, with a lack of direction amidst a sense of uncertainty about US and European interest rates and business confidence.

Today's price swings are likely to be volatile ahead of the event, with short-term returns and pushes likely to be mixed.

Buy-backs are likely to be involved near the milestone, and the situation calls for careful confirmation of the sustainability of the flow.

Assumed range

The downside is to be aware of the previous day's low - near the low, while the upside is to be assumed to be around the level of the guideline for the return.

Room for range expansion ahead of US indices and likely to swing up or down depending on the material

A willingness to estimate a wide range of fluctuations without being overly biased is necessary

tactics

Basis is based on return selling, combined with short-term push-buying near milestones.

Avoid following one direction before and after the event and prioritise participation after checking reactions.

Do not follow sudden swings and be aware of entry after pulling back.

trigger

The upside is a break above the recent return high, which confirms the short-term flow change.

To the downside, watch for a break below the previous day's low and the possibility of a stronger sell-off.

The results of US indicators and the immediate reaction to their release are likely to influence the direction of the day.

override condition

Review tactics in the event of a series of legs that clearly exceed the assumed level.

Suspend directional assessment if irregular price movements with long whiskers both up and down increase.

Lower confidence in signals when volume is thin and price movements are rough.

risk event

Indicators of employment and business conditions in the United States.

PMIs and price-related indicators in Europe

Dignitaries' statements and sudden geopolitical factors.

position management

Size should be lighter than normal and prepared for sudden changes before and after the event.

Set interest rates short and give priority to closing once the milestone is reached.

Stop-losses are placed outside the most recent milestone to avoid excessive endurance.

checklist

Interest rate observations in the US and Europe and the positioning of today's indicators

Reactions after reaching milestones and the strength of buy-backs and sell-backs

Presence or absence of renewed return highs and lows and persistence of price movements

Market summary

On the UK side, speculation about the timing of the rate cut continues, while on the US side, interest rate expectations continue to swing easily ahead of key indicators.

The previous day was dominated by selling, and the transition was marked by a weak return around the milestone.

With today's event on the horizon, short-term swings are still likely to occur depending on the material

Assumed range

The lower limit is expected to be around 1.30 and the upper limit around 1.32

Reactions tend to occur around milestones, and it continues to be difficult to extend either up or down.

Sudden indicator results may result in a temporary unexpected spread

tactics

The basic assumption is to return to the market and carefully check the return to the milestone.

It is safe to consider buying only in the form of a short-term push, while monitoring the reaction after the event passes.

In times of lack of direction, the alternative is to wait and see, rather than following too closely.

trigger

The upward direction will be checked for a break above the 1.32 area, and the short-term trend will be determined depending on the reaction.

On the downside, the focus will be on whether the price movement strengthens towards a break below 1.30.

In terms of time zones, short-term volatility is likely to continue in the early part of Europe and around US indicators.

override condition

A clear break above the 1.32 area on the close would weaken the assumption of a return

If there is a strong rebound around 1.30, the short-term downward bias should be reworked once

If there is a sudden change in direction after the indicator, the previous scenario will be reset.

risk event

The results of key US indicators could significantly shake interest rate expectations.

UK inflation-related and employment-related updates influence speculation on the timing of interest rate cuts

Monetary policy-related statements can create sudden fluctuations

position management

Sizes will be more conservative than usual to allow for sudden changes before and after the event.

Gains will be split at each short-term milestone and adjusted based on the assumption that the market is difficult to extend.

Losses are sorted out early when milestones are clearly crossed to limit the risk of reversals.

checklist

The impact of UK and US index results on interest rate observations.

Strength of reaction around 1.30 and around 1.32

Changes in price movements before and after the event and whether volatility can increase

Market summary

The Australian dollar continued to experience a heavy return on the previous day, with speculation about US monetary policy and risk aversion.

With the release of related indicators today, the US dollar trend and market sentiment are likely to influence the direction of the market.

News on resource market conditions and China-related news also have a significant impact on the market, and the environment is prone to short-term swings.

Overall, the situation is likely to remain cautious.

Assumed range

Lower price level is aware of the previous day's low price area - price range likely to swing downwards.

Upper level is likely to be a return point - near the top of the range where there is an awareness of the heaviness of the upper level.

Growth is likely to be limited, as flows are likely to be driven by real demand and waiting for indicators.

In the short term, it is expected to oscillate up and down, but with little sense of direction.

tactics

selling on the turnaround (e.g. in stock prices)

Prepared to consider entry at higher prices while carefully checking short-term returns

Focus on being prepared for sudden swings, as the market tends to wait for materials

Maintain a stance of not forcibly chasing ups and downs, and aim for clear reactions when they occur.

trigger

The upside is a clear breakthrough of the previous day's return high area.

Downward flow immediately after a break of the low and US indicators.

US dollar-driven fluctuations and resource price reactions are likely to trigger the market

Note the directional formation in the Asian-European early hours.

override condition

Price movement above the previous day's return high to consolidate.

Clarification of the trend of predominant buying of the Australian dollar after US indices.

Resource market pick-up provides support for the Australian dollar

Situations where a downside transition prevails in the short term

risk event

Release of US-related indicators.

Australian and China-related economic indicators.

Sudden changes in flows triggered by sentiment shifts in key markets

Sudden risk aversion against a background of geopolitical risks

position management

The size is based on a lighter-than-usual basis, and additional adjustments are reserved for before and after the release of indicators.

Divide gains at short-term returns and milestones, and be aware of the need to respond without being greedy.

Losses are taken if the transition continues to clearly exceed the upper limit of the return.

Ensure that stop-losses are set in case of unforeseen swings.

checklist

US dollar trends and reactions to US indices

Australia-China related news and resource market fluctuations.

Confirmation of price movements at the upper end of short-term chart returns.

review

A day of buying in Tokyo, followed by a temporary sell-off in Europe, but then buying back in New York and closing the day on a higher note.

summary

The flow of interest rate differentials supported the market, as the composition of the market remained conscious of US monetary policy observations.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan continued to take a cautious stance, and the supply-demand situation also saw buying in the downside.

The previous day was characterised by a general firmness despite ups and downs, confirming the strength of the buy-back.

As a result, the impression was that the price remained high and stable with limited directional movement.

Today's price movements

Buying prevails in Tokyo, with firmness to the downside being recognised in the early stages of the market.

Characterised by a temporary strengthening of selling in Europe, but the momentum did not last long and recovered quickly.

In New York, there were some instances of pushback due to indicators, but overall turbulence was limited due to buying at the lower end of the market.

Calm price movements returned towards the end of the day, and the market closed at a higher level.

Background and materials

Continued cautious view of monetary policy in the US, a factor supporting the US dollar, as the prospect of lower interest rates recedes.

Domestically, the Bank of Japan's stance has not changed significantly while taking into account price trends, and there is a lack of positive material on the yen side.

Overall, flows remained polarised on the day, with interest rate differentials between the US and Japan being a concern.

Supply and demand also saw buying at the pushpoints, a trend that helped to limit the spread of the downside.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market continues to hold at high levels, with both upside and downside strength coexisting.

A situation where a quick return after the formation of a push confirms that the ground is likely to absorb a short-term downward push.

A configuration that lacks directionality in the short timeframe, but is still likely to be aware of a lower price.

Sudden swings were seen, but prices returned to calm towards the end of the day.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the highs continue to be maintained, with the major trend being the search for the upper limit of the holding area.

Lower prices have been supported multiple times, with a renewed awareness of the strength of the push

Continued testing of the upper resistance zone, but limited upward momentum

In the medium term, the market remains in a range and is in the process of determining its direction.

impression

The impression is that the previous day, despite some ups and downs, generally remained calm and was not overly polarised.

The way buy-backs are coming in shows that the supply-demand situation is stable and downside concerns are limited.

On the other hand, there is also an awareness of the heaviness of the upside, and the phase in which the flow should continue to be checked without haste.

A stance of not being at the mercy of short-term movements and capturing the flow from a slightly broader perspective is required.

trade observations

Environment in which it is easy to buy during the push phase and easy to respond mainly to short-term rotation.

On the other hand, there is also some slowness on the upside, requiring caution in timing the follow-up.

There were some short-term situations where a quicker reaction was required, but overall, the response was within a reasonable range.

A trend to face while avoiding excessive position-taking, based on a lack of sense of direction.

checklist

Changes in flows due to the impact of US indices

Strong and weak selling pressure in European hours

Degree of continued holding at higher prices

review

It was a day of mixed materials, ups and downs, and a lack of substance on a daily basis.

summary

The lack of stability in views on US monetary policy, combined with reports on business confidence in the eurozone, made it difficult for markets to find direction.

In Tokyo, the selling was led by a sell-off, which did not continue despite a temporary strengthening of buying in Europe, and in New York, there was some buying back in response to the index.

Short-term flows were easily replaced and the overall transition lacked strength.

Today's price movements

The market was dominated by a return to the market in the early stages of the session, with a mix of buyers and sellers continuing to push the market around the milestone.

Although a temporary buying up was observed in the European hours, the trend did not continue and the market was pushed back again.

In New York, the dollar weakened slightly in response to the index results, and the euro was easily bought.

Background and materials

Uncertainty over US monetary policy continued to trigger market swings in response to interest rate trends.

In the euro-zone, business confidence indicators and price-related information were in the spotlight, with a cautious attitude towards the economy.

Flows were likely to change from one indicator to another, and short-term muscle trading was a factor in widening the amplitude of price movements.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The daily shape was of small substance, and the short term was a mixture of sell-backs and buy-backs.

Rebounds and push-backs alternated around the milestones, and price movements continued to make it difficult to get a sense of direction.

Short-term indicators are less overheated and can easily swing up or down depending on flows

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market is aware of moderate return pressure and continues to be prone to selling on the upside.

On the other hand, there has been some buying back at the lower end, and the range-like movement continues.

The composition tends to fall within the central band of the holding, making it difficult to get a clear direction.

impression

It was a day of complex material overlap, with short-term trading easily influencing price movements.

Even when ups and downs swings occurred, they were not sustained, and the impression is that the situation remained in a state of flux throughout the period.

There was a lot of milestone attacks, and the scene required a wait-and-see attitude for a clear sense of direction.

trade observations

The short-term dominance of the trend was noticeable, and it was necessary to carefully assess the push and return reactions rather than follow them

As it was difficult to find a direction, the decision was required to avoid going too deep and to frequently close the market at a certain price range.

The medium-term perspective suited the attitude of not forcibly following the swing, but carefully checking the reactions of the main zones.

checklist

Check market reaction to US interest rate developments.

Organised information on Eurozone business confidence and prices.

Identify signs of short-term flow bias and sudden fluctuations

review

The UK's weak indexes led to a sell-back in the UK, with buy-backs in Europe but no upward movement, while in New York, the weakening of the US dollar in response to the US indexes led to buying, but with limited growth.

summary

Throughout the day, the UK's outlook remained cautious and active buying was difficult to spread.

Although buying was temporarily dominated by the US indices, the upside was restrained by a return to the market.

Price movements lacked a sense of direction, and there was a noticeable trend of testing up and down depending on the material.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time was dominated by sellers looking for a return, with a heavy upside in mind.

In Europe, there was a short-term turnaround in the flow of buying, but the momentum did not continue due to lingering caution about the UK index.

In New York, the US dollar weakened slightly in response to US indicators, and the pound was bought predominantly.

Background and materials

Continued awareness of slowing inflation in the UK has led to a cautious outlook on the direction of monetary policy.

Economic indicators were also weak, weighing on uncertainty about the outlook for businesses and households.

The strength and weakness of the dollar fluctuated depending on the results of US indicators, a development that affected the overall currency flows.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the price trend continued to be easily restrained to the upside, and pressure to return to the market prevailed.

Temporary buy-backs did occur, but the composition was such that profit-taking was likely to occur at high levels and the market was likely to fall back.

Short-term trends were easily changed depending on the material, and there was a noticeable lack of continuity.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the direction is difficult to determine, and the transition continues, testing up and down but failing to make a decisive breakthrough.

A range-like structure with a weakening upward momentum near the highs and a certain level of buying demand at the lows.

In the medium-term perspective, we are still waiting for material to build up, and it is difficult to create a clear advantage.

impression

The impression is that it was a day of mixed UK and US material, with flows easily broken.

The market appeared to be near a market that was susceptible to short-term movements and mainly adjusting its holdings.

With the strength of the material unclear, we felt the need to carefully assess price movements

trade observations

It was difficult to get a strong sense of direction and I had the impression that there were many situations where I could not ride the short-term wave.

We struggled with an environment of mixed returns and buybacks, where dominance was easy to switch.

I think it suited me better to be aware of early gains without pulling too hard.

checklist

Changes in flow due to the results of UK and US indicators

Which way the momentum of return sales and buy-backs has tilted?

Flow bias at high and low price points

review

Tokyo and Europe lacked a sense of direction, with selling prevailing after temporary buying in New York in response to the index, and the trend closed below the previous day's low.

summary

Throughout the day, reactions to materials were significant and short-term swings were noticeable.

In New York, US developments weighed on the Australian dollar, limiting its return.

The market remained at a low level towards the close, and landed below the holding level.

Today's price movements

Tokyo and Europe were mainly holding with small ups and downs, and it was difficult to generate a positive sense of direction.

In New York, the index results triggered buying of the Australian dollar, but it was not sustainable and the sell-off strengthened again.

The second half of the day was dominated by the low point of the previous day, with the attack and defence of the previous day's lows.

Background and materials

Australian and US business confidence-related indicators were in the spotlight, and the environment was prone to short-term swings before and after their release.

US interest rate developments continued to limit the return of the Australian dollar and the resilience of the dollar affected the market.

Mixed positional adjustments ahead of the weekend, with a tendency for flows to be skewed.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the return phase was easily restrained and the upside was perceived to be heavy.

Continued attack near near near-term support as the previous day's lows were broken

Weakness continued in relation to the short-term line and the rebound did not continue on many occasions.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the position remained close to the lower end of the range band, making it easier to be aware of imbalances.

The difference in policy stance between Australia and the US affected the medium-term direction of the market, which remained moderately heavy in the holding

The flow appeared unstable at the daily level as it was consolidating on the lower side of the main range

impression

It was a day of many material reactions, with the flow easily switching in a short space of time.

The Australian dollar buying scene was limited, with the impression that developments on the US side had a strong influence on the overall trend.

The market proceeded cautiously, with some signs of holding back in directionless situations.

trade observations

Impression that the rebound phase was unlikely to last long and that short-term discernment was required.

The strength of selling outweighed the strength of the low and the trend required a cautious decision to follow.

When targeting a short-term return, it feels like the structure was structured to make early gains pay off.

checklist

Swings before and after the release of an indicator and the persistence of the reaction

Impact of US interest rate developments on the Australian dollar.

Flow bias due to weekend factors