Market summary

The upward movement continues against the backdrop of a pick-up in long-term interest rates in the US, and the market is conscious of the need to move to higher levels.

Today, the focus is on reactions to interest rate developments ahead of the release of US housing-related indicators and minutes.

Tokyo time is difficult to get a sense of direction, and the market continues to wait for external materials.

Overall, price movements around the milestones are likely to be thin and the market is likely to swing both upwards and downwards.

Assumed range

The lower price is expected to be at a level where a push to the milestone area is perceived.

The upside is a return to the vicinity of recent highs.

Short-term spread before and after the event should be noted.

Liquidity is likely to vary depending on the time of day, and following is a situation where careful decisions should be made.

tactics

The basic policy is to be prepared to buy at the push.

A policy of suppressing new directions during times of large short-term swings and adjusting after confirmation is effective.

It is important to be flexible in buying more or withdrawing from the market near the milestone, while monitoring the reaction.

It is advisable to avoid excessive following during events and wait for price movements to stabilise.

trigger

The decision to the upside will depend on a clear break above the milestone.

To the downside, the focus is on whether the recent push level will be broken.

If US housing-related indicators or the content of the minutes of the meeting move interest rates, the initial direction should be closely monitored.

Flow factors are strong in Tokyo hours, and reassessment in the US and European hours is key.

override condition

In the case of a push-buy assumption, a clear break below recent support is a condition for a tactical review.

A limited reaction after the event and continued stalling around the milestone may also contribute to assumed negativity.

A review of decisions is also necessary when a short-term trend is rapidly unwinding volume.

Careful reassessment is also required in the event of a biased move in one direction during periods of low liquidity.

risk event

US housing-related indicators (starts and permits)

US monetary policy-related minutes published.

Sudden changes in stock indices and interest rates

position management

Sizes should be more conservative than usual and it is appropriate to be prepared to prioritise adjustments before the event.

It is effective to take profits just before the milestone and not to force the market to pull back.

The situation is such that it is preferable to ensure a mechanical response, with losses based on the most recent support breakdown.

When multiple positions are held, risk control through split processing is effective.

checklist

Check interest rate reactions to US housing-related indicators and minutes

Understand trading flows and price stability at milestones

Watch for reassessment of direction in European and US time.

Market summary

The previous day, the Eurodollar was weighed down by rising long-term US interest rates and the slow return of the Eurodollar.

Continued speculation over US monetary policy and caution over European forward-looking indicators, with the ground susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates and stock prices.

Today's phase is to carefully assess whether the trend in the direction of the lows extended the previous day will continue.

Assumed range

The downside is the range from the previous day's low to the recent push zone.

The upside image is likely to be heavy around the recent return highs and psychological milestones.

Basically, the main scenario is a swing within the previous day's price range, but considering the risk of temporary expansion during events.

tactics

Basic stance is based on range rotation, with priority given to the idea of a return to the market on the upside.

On the downside, carefully consider the push on the downside where there is a short-term sign of a downside.

trigger

Check price movements before and after the start of European hours and whether there will be any change in the attack around the previous day's low.

Conscious of short-term directional triggers when interest rates and stock prices swing significantly in the same direction before and after US indicators and statements by key figures.

If we enter Europe with limited returns in Asian hours, we should be slightly wary of downward pressure in European hours.

override condition

If the market breaks above the previous day's highs and holds the highs, the return-dominant scenario will be shelved.

A rapid turnaround after the previous day's lows and a close at the highs also requires a review of the outlook.

A situation where you want to return to a flat orientation once a directional trend with volume has been out of the assumed range for an extended period of time.

risk event

Sudden changes in interest rates following statements on US monetary policy and the results of related indicators.

Changes in the euro area outlook due to surprises in economic and inflation-related indicators in the euro area.

Changes in risk appetite through large swings in equity markets and commodity prices

position management

Overall position size slightly lower than usual, and new entries before and after the event carefully considered

Take profits in stages at milestones in the expected range, and even when aiming for growth, only a portion of the gain is left.

Conscious of a mechanically executed stance when unexpected price movements are confirmed, based on the previous day's highs and lows or the most recent milestone.

checklist

Is the direction of long-term US interest rates and major stock indices in line with each other?

Is there a significant gap between the results of European bloc indicators and the eurodollar reaction?

Whether the position of the previous day's highs and lows and today's price range is consistent with the pre-assumed range view

Market summary

The overall wait-and-see tone for the pound dollar continues amid continued speculation on the future of UK price indicators and fiscal policy.

The day before, the market oscillated up and down but remained in a range and did not show a clear sense of direction.

Today is also considered to be a phase of mainly short-term price movements ahead of major events, with a strong sense of waiting for the next material.

Assumed range

Today, we assume a range of around 1.30 - 1.33 as the main scenario.

The downside is likely to be a push to the downside before 1.30, while the upside is likely to be a return to the upside around 1.33.

If there are no major surprises, this is a situation where you want to follow the price movements on the assumption that they will swing within this range.

tactics

The basic policy is to be aware of range rotation and to be prepared not to chase extreme breaks.

Prepare entry patterns for each scenario, separating push-buy on the downside and return on the upside.

It is important to select new entries carefully before and after an event, as it is possible that spreads may widen temporarily or fluctuate wildly.

trigger

On the upside, a clear test of the 1.33 level after the European hour is a guide to a short-term rebound scenario.

To the downside, a strong trend below 1.30 in London time is a candidate for a sign of a break below the range.

UK price indexes and fiscal commentary Headlines on the US monetary policy stance will also be closely watched.

override condition

If the price is firmly above the 1.33 level on a closing basis and starts to function as a push, we will revise our scenario based on the assumption of a return to the 1.33 level.

Conversely, if the price falls clearly below 1.30 and the downward trend accelerates, we will reduce the range assumption tactic.

Avoid trading unreasonably, as rapid round-trip changes over a short period of time can also reduce the reliability of the technicals.

risk event

Announcements on UK price-related indicators and fiscal policy, as well as statements from key figures, are likely to influence the direction of the pound.

Note that in the US, statements on monetary policy stance and related indicators are likely to spill over to the crosses through interest rate observations on the dollar.

Beware of temporary range breaks and increased volatility if results differ significantly from expectations or surprise elements

position management

Lower position sizes than usual before and after the event to give you more room to withstand unexpected price fluctuations.

It is also a good idea to set a profit target near the upper end of the range, and to avoid being too greedy when entering near the lower end as well.

Stop-loss levels are placed outside the trigger price zone to avoid overtrading on successive headlines.

checklist

Have you checked the UK price index and fiscal timetable and the availability of key figures' statements?

Are you aware of indicators and scheduled statements that could influence the US monetary policy stance and note the key time frames?

Did you check the quality and volume of price movements around 1.30 and 1.33 and sort out clues as to whether the range will continue or break?

Market summary

While Australian wages and price-related issues have shown resilience, the combination of a strong dollar and stock market instability has led to a lack of direction.

The previous day, while gradually cutting the lows, the lower lows were held, and then the predominant trend was to pick up the pushback.

Today, the focus is on whether there will be another test of the downside, and it is easy to be aware of a slower reaction in the return phase

Assumed range

Small ups and downs around the range of late 0.64 - early 0.65

A scene to try to recover to the 0.65 level if the external environment settles down.

Pressure towards mid-0.64s if risk-off strengthens

tactics

Basically based on range rotation, but responding flexibly to short-term swings.

Cautious attitude to pick up pushes if downward test strengthens

Consider the option of returning to the market when the upside reaction is sluggish.

trigger

Upward movement clearly above the 0.65 level

The downside is below the mid-0.64s.

Time of day when US indicators and interest rate-related reactions are stronger.

override condition

Stable transition above the mid 0.65s

Price movement rapidly collapsing to the low 0.64s.

Unexpected unidirectionalisation due to sudden changes in external risks

risk event

Publication of US interest rate-related indicators.

Australian business confidence and leading indicators.

Swings in risk sentiment linked to changes in stock prices

position management

Size adjusted to be less than usual.

Interest rates are based around the upper end of the recent range.

The loss is at the point where the downward milestone is clearly broken.

checklist

Will the dollar be unbalanced in reaction to US indicators?

Is the tone of Australia-related indicators maintained?

Have movements in stock prices and risk assets spilled over into the Australian dollar?

review

A day of overseas-led upside testing, with the yen selling prevailing as the lack of a clear check from the authorities and the recession in interventionist speculation continued.

summary

The dollar was bought in Europe and the trend strengthened, although there was a lack of direction in Tokyo time due to a lack of materials.

Impressive in that the retreat of intervention warnings following statements by the authorities has affected market sentiment, making the environment more inclined to sell the yen.

A day of short-term supply and demand supported the dollar in New York as the push remained shallow and the upward trend was maintained.

The overall impression was that uncertainty related to monetary and exchange rate policy had receded somewhat, and that the ground was more conducive to straightforward flows.

Today's price movements

The impression is that Tokyo hours were dominated by a narrow range of firings, with cautious price movements continuing while confirming intervention-related speculation.

After entering Europe, buying became the predominant trend, and the bias to the upside strengthened with the addition of overseas flows.

In New York, the push was limited and buying was likely to continue intermittently, following the previous day's trend.

Throughout the day, the test towards the highs continued, and the market moved slowly higher, with some return sales.

Background and materials

The lack of specific indications of restraint after the meeting between the BoJ Governor and finance officials, and the reduced caution of intervention, are perceived as factors that may have contributed to the yen's sell-off.

Relative interest rate differentials are of interest due to a lack of clues from domestic indicators and a largely unchanged view on the current stance in terms of monetary policy

On the US side, interest rate expectations are likely to swing ahead of key indicators, and the wait-for-results attitude is one reason why the dollar is more likely to be pushed back.

Overall, the impression is that policy-related uncertainty has receded somewhat and the day was more flow-driven and easier to move.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the test to the highs continues, and the shallowness of the push suggests buy-dominated ground.

On the other hand, there is a sense of overheating in short-term indicators, and a phase in which the market should be prepared for a downside in the event of a sudden reversal.

A situation where you want to check the reaction to a shallow push or near a milestone and carefully decide whether to follow or not.

Conscious of the room for an adjustment once there is a slowdown in the upside growth in the short term.

Technical note (mid-term).

The upward bias is maintained in the medium term, and the push is easily structured to act as support.

However, depending on the attitude of the authorities and the external environment, it is easy to assume that the attack and defence around the milestone will intensify and that it will be difficult to get a sense of direction.

The period is widening and the trend remains at a high level, and it is a phase to see whether the trend continues or whether the adjustment strengthens.

Multiple moving averages are considered as support, with the focus on maintaining a gradual underlying trend in the absence of any sudden developments.

impression

A day of clear signs of a change in market sentiment as a result of the authorities' statements, with the impression that the receding sense of caution has boosted flows.

In the short term, there is a sense of overheating, so a flexible viewpoint is required rather than being biased in one direction.

The situation is felt to be more likely to lead to a greater reaction to the next material, as policy-related views have calmed down.

trade observations

The impression is to carefully pick up pushes and shallow returns at the highs, while reacting quickly to changes in the flow.

In the short term, it is felt that small increments of gain are more advantageous and a response that does not pull the holding too far back is desirable.

Medium-term trend is maintained, but position size adjustment is important as it is prone to fluctuations depending on the material.

A phase where you want to maintain an attitude of not overdoing it in following near the milestone and only enter after confirming the reaction.

checklist

Are there any changes in the authorities' statements and policy-related headlines?

Is there any bias in price movements during the hours when overseas flows are likely to occur?

Have you reassessed your risk management to ensure that short-term overheating is not increasing?

review

Uncertainty in the eurozone weighed on the dollar, and while it remained firmer from Tokyo to Europe, there was a noticeable trend of dollar buying in New York.

summary

The euro remained susceptible to upward pressure due to uncertainty over business confidence and interest rate observations

Despite the cautious attitude in the US ahead of the index, elements of resilience supported the preference for the dollar.

Overall, the ground was more likely to lean towards the dollar as the reaction to the material was assessed.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo and Europe, the direction of the market was difficult to ascertain, and the focus was on limited price fluctuations.

In New York, market participants were more responsive to the material and the dollar buying momentum increased.

Trading mixed around the milestone, but limited return of the euro

Background and materials

Cautiousness about the outlook for Eurozone business confidence indicators and interest rates made it difficult to extend the buy-back.

In the US, a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the event continued, but firming material supported the dollar.

Overall, the ground situation was likely to influence preferences between currencies, with temperature differences between the US and Europe.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The structure was conscious of a slow return in the short term and a tendency to sell off to the upside.

Buying back was easy at the lower price points and the narrow range continued

Although directional trends were scarce, the trend was characterised by a tendency for the flow to tilt in the NY time zone.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the gradual downward bias continued and the return phase lacked strength.

The trend remained difficult to judge the sustainability of the flow, with an increasing number of attacks and defences between the milestones.

Pressure remained susceptible to change depending on US and European interest rate observations.

impression

Lack of material for the euro required cautious handling of the return phase

The market was sensitive to US and European indicators, and there was an air of easy tolerance for short-term swings.

A dollar-dominated trend was seen, although it was generally difficult to be biased in one direction.

trade observations

The struggle had lasted for a long time, and the content was more about confirming a return or rebound than following it.

Impression that the flow of the NY time was changeable and that switching strategies at different times of the day was effective

It was necessary to carefully assess the reactions around the milestones.

checklist

Changes in business confidence and interest rate observations in the US and Europe

Strength and weakness of reactions to material in the NY time

Which is the predominant return phase and which is the predominant push phase?

review

Selling intensified in the European hours, and by the New York hours, the dollar was predominantly bought, and the market fell below a certain range that had been perceived as a holding pattern.

summary

A slowdown in price indicators on the UK side increased speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts and restrained the upward movement of the pound.

On the US side, interest rate observations continued to swing ahead of key indicators, and the dollar buying trend was likely to prevail.

As a result, the day saw a break below the level that was seen as a holding pattern and a change in the short-term trend.

Today's price movements

The pound was easily sold from the beginning of the European session, and downward pressure prevailed with limited returns.

Dollar buying accelerated towards the New York time and the price fell below the level that had been considered as a milestone.

The day was generally biased downwards, although there were some ups and downs.

Background and materials

The pound was weighed down by a slowdown in UK price indicators and increased speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts.

On the US side, interest rate observations were volatile ahead of key indicators, and demand for the dollar was likely to increase.

Overall, the day was marked by fluctuations in views on monetary policy in the UK and the US affecting rates.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The return was held back and the short-term bias was consciously to the downwards direction as it fell below the most recent support band.

Weak resilience around moving averages limited short-term buy-backs

The chart structure continued to be dominated by sellers waiting for a return in the short term

Technical note (mid-term).

The lower end of the range, which was seen as a holding area in the medium term, was breached and a change in the trend was noticed.

The structure continued to take time to turn upwards, with multiple return points overlapping at the upper end of the range

The market remained below its medium-term moving averages and a cautious stance was required

impression

The impression is that it was a predominantly selling day, with materials and charts pointing in the same direction.

There was consistency in the flow, especially between European and New York hours, with limited ups and downsides.

It was a situation where the strength of the future return should be carefully monitored as a phase where the short-term flow switched.

trade observations

The slow return around the milestone was easy to confirm, and the transition was easy to meet short-term selling conditions.

There were occasions when movements were temporarily coarse before and after the index, and size adjustments were felt to be effective.

While following after a downwards break required caution, participation after confirmation of a return was relatively easy to handle.

checklist

How UK and US interest rate observations have changed during the day

Strength or weakness of resilience after a break below the lower limit of the holding pattern

Have we seen consistency in the Europe - New York flow?

review

On the previous day, the Australian dollar was pushed lower as dollar buying prevailed in the New York hour amid a lack of direction in Tokyo and Europe.

summary

The market remained cautious as it continued to wait for material, with Australian wage-related indicators in the spotlight.

Strong caution ahead of the event in the US and dollar preference flows weighed on the Australian dollar.

Reaction to developments in resource markets and China-related developments was also limited, making it difficult for a return test to spread.

Today's price movements

Tokyo and Europe remained in a state of struggle and it was difficult to find a sense of direction amidst a lack of materials.

The Australian dollar came under increasing downward pressure as the US dollar was predominantly bought in the New York time.

The return phase was suppressed early on and the day was marked by low prices.

Background and materials

Australian wage-related indicators were in the spotlight, with the market keen to determine the sustainability of inflation.

Ahead of major events in the US, there was a general sense of risk aversion in price movements.

Resource market conditions and China-related news received only a limited response, and were unlikely to provide material for a positive rebound in the Australian dollar.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the shape of the chart is easily aware of a return to the market, and the chart shows the heaviness of the upside.

The short-term moving averages remained downwards, with an impressive lack of reaction in the return phase.

In the short term, the environment is marked by stagnation at the lows, making it difficult for a rebound to continue.

Technical note (mid-term).

Although directional trends are difficult to detect in the medium term, there are intermittent signs of a search for a lower price.

While buying support is confirmed at key milestones, the shape of the market is also likely to be conscious of an upside barrier.

The market remained on the lower side of the medium-term holding range and was in a phase of unbalanced price movements.

impression

With the overall trend of dollar dominance, the Australian dollar seemed unlikely to test an autonomous return.

Australia- and China-related material has had limited impact and the environment remains susceptible to external risks in the short term.

The situation calls for a continued attitude of carefully checking the reaction to the return phase.

trade observations

In the short term, there was a strong awareness of the need to return to the market, and there were many occasions when the momentum of the return was slow.

There were occasions when the flow before and after the event moved the market, and the impression was to avoid making any early decisions on the direction of the market.

It was a day when it felt safer to check the reaction at milestones and consider entry, rather than forcibly chasing.

checklist

Results and market reactions to Australian and US related indicators.

Resource market and China-related news

Confirmation of price movements in the short-term return phase.