Market summary

The previous day was dominated by buyers, and the upward trend above last week's highs was recognised, but for the time being we need to carefully assess whether this trend will continue.

Today, the environment is likely to continue to be characterized by a combination of high US interest rates and risk-off stock market weakness, while the US-Japan interest rate differential is likely to continue to push the market to higher levels.

Assumed range

The assumed range is around 155.00-155.80, with the upper range confirming the strength of the push-back pressure and the lower range confirming the strength of the push-buy appetite.

In Tokyo time, we will observe price movements and volume bias within the range to determine the direction from Europe onwards.

tactics

The basic stance is to avoid chasing higher prices and wait for an adjustment phase.

If US interest rates and stock prices remain calm when approaching the lower end of the range, we will consider diversified buying, while on the upper side, we will prioritise profit-taking while watching for slower growth at the previous day's highs.

On the other hand, if the price breaks clearly below the assumed range, we will shelve the push-buy scenario and prepare for a short-term return to the market.

trigger

The trigger to the upside is whether the previous day's high can be exceeded on a substance basis and maintained at the close to determine whether the bullishness can continue.

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To the downside, the resistance at the same level after a break below 155.00 is a guide to confirming the scenario of an expansion of the adjustment.

In the time zone, the emphasis is on the initial reaction immediately after the release of the US trade price index and industrial production and the subsequent direction of establishment.

override condition

If the daily reaction falls back with a long upper whisker and the lower limit of the assumed range is also broken, the push-buy assumption will be considered invalid.

The scenario of continued dollar strength needs to be reviewed in the event of simultaneous stock market weakness and yen appreciation following a sharp rise in long-term interest rates in Japan and reports of a change in the Bank of Japan's stance.

risk event

Today, there is a concentration of indicators that are likely to affect interest rates and risk appetite, such as the US trade price index industrial production versus US securities investment, so volatility is likely to increase depending on the results.

Japanese machinery orders and officials' statements intervention observation articles Geopolitical risk headlines are also considered as temporary sharp fluctuation factors.

position management

New positions are assumed to be smaller in size than usual due to trading at higher prices, and are to be opened and closed in multiple installments.

Take profits frequently when the momentum of the previous day's high price renewal slows or when a break below short-term support is beginning to be recognised, to avoid a sharp decline in unrealised profits.

It is safe to cut losses mechanically at a level where the scenario can be judged to have broken down, while keeping a certain range outside the expected range and withstanding the noise before and after the event.

checklist

Is there a match between the results of key US indicators and the direction of the reaction of US interest rates and stock prices?

Have there been any changes in Japanese long-term interest rates or Bank of Japan-related headlines?

Is USDJPY within its expected range or are there increasing signs of a range break?

Market summary

The previous day was weak but only slightly so, and the direction of the market remained limited amid a push-pull trend.

Today's environment is likely to be marked by a wait-and-see attitude towards materials, with statements from key European figures and US employment and housing-related indicators.

The situation is likely to focus on pre-event adjustments in the short term, as the search for lower prices around the milestone continues.

Assumed range

The range is expected to be in the high 1.15s to low 1.16s.

The market is easily aware of thick trading both up and down, and the ground is easy to return to even in the event of a sudden swing.

The composition is likely to remain in a narrow price range until the event results give a sense of direction.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on range rotation and avoid extreme up/down following.

Combination of pushing and returning around milestones, with a short staying power assumed.

In view of the directionless phase, priority is given to taking small, detailed gains, with less excessive price expectations.

trigger

If key figures' statements in the European hour are either hawkish or dovish, this can trigger short-term turbulence.

Beware of a dollar-led swing if the results of US employment and housing-related indicators fall far short of expectations.

A break above the milestone is likely to lead to a return test, while a break below is likely to lead to a search for the direction of the recent lows.

override condition

Assumptions are likely to be broken if the price continues to move clearly below the milestone area and the return is slow.

Cases where one-directional flows strengthen after European or US events, resulting in price movements that deviate from the range.

Review policy if short-term buy-backs continue to be difficult to obtain.

risk event

European dignitary statement(s).

US employment-related and housing-related indicators.

Eurozone inflation-related statistics to follow the next day.

position management

Be modest in size and be prepared for pre- and post-event fluctuations.

Prioritise small gains and adjust frequently within the expected range.

Losses are executed without hesitation on pre-determined conditions, such as breaking milestones and slowing returns.

checklist

Is the tone of statements by European dignitaries biased?

Will US employment and housing-related indicators strengthen dollar-led volatility?

Is the range between the milestones continuing?

Market summary

The situation remains supportive of the US dollar, with the US adjusting to the prospect of interest rate cuts amidst sluggish growth indicators in the UK and the Central Bank's cautious stance.

The previous day, the market tested the upward direction on the back of overseas flows, but failed to cross the milestone, and the situation is being held up by a combination of buying at the pushpoint and a slow return.

Today, the focus is likely to be on which way out of the holding range, as the adjustment ahead of the event is likely to continue.

Assumed range

The range is expected to be around 1.31 on the downside and around 1.32 on the upside.

In the short term, there is a mixture of return selling and push-buying, with limited direction.

The composition is likely to continue to attack and defend around the milestone.

tactics

The line of sight is based on range rotation, with small increments to check for reactions around the upper and lower nodes.

Buy entry after confirming a downward pullback in the lower range; sell entry after confirming a slowdown in the upper range.

Avoid over-pulling positions and operate mainly on short-term completion.

trigger

On the upside, watch for a clear break above the 1.32 level, where the trend is likely to change.

On the downside, be aware that the adjustment is likely to deepen if the 1.31 break below becomes more entrenched.

Watch out for situations where the direction of the dollar moves with US indicators (prices, production and investment in US securities) in the New York time.

override condition

If the 1.32 level is broken vigorously and established in the upper range with a return, the assumed range view will recede.

The range-below scenario is temporarily invalid even if the break below 1.31 does not last surprisingly and a strong rebound forms a support.

When liquidity is skewed by sudden headlines and price retention occurs outside the expected range.

risk event

US price-related statistics.

US production indices and equipment utilisation rates.

US external securities flows.

position management

The size is more modest than usual and the emphasis is on balance, not leaning too much to one side.

Interest is taken in stages before milestones, with an awareness of operating in a way that does not aim for too much growth.

Losses are mechanically executed when a milestone is clearly out of line, based on recent fluctuations.

checklist

Confirmation that position adjustments are likely to intensify ahead of UK indices.

Understand when the US dollar is likely to swing in the short term due to US indicators.

Determining whether price movements at milestones continue to be range-bound or not

Market summary

The upside ground was heavy due to a sense of uncertainty over monetary policy ahead of the Australian parliamentary summary, combined with caution over US interest rate developments.

The Australian dollar experienced a slow return as global stock market weakness dampened risk appetite.

The previous day saw a gradual decline to lower lows, and a short-term rebound was limited.

Today's phase will be about assessing reactions to the material and whether the downside test will continue.

Assumed range

Assumed lower limit around 0.6450 and upper limit around 0.6550.

In the short term, the price range is slightly narrower and there is a sense of waiting for material.

In situations where it is difficult to get a sense of direction, the composition should avoid excessive following of ups and downs.

tactics

The basic policy is to sell on the return and take a cautious approach while confirming the heaviness of the upside.

Push-buying is likely to limit the price range and is considered to be suitable for short-term rotation

If the fluctuations are intensified by the material, do not force it to pull back and wait to see how it reacts before making a decision.

trigger

Any change in tone in the Australian minutes in Asian hours will provide a clue to direction.

A break above around 0.6500 is a guide to consider a standard correction for a return sale.

A break below the 0.6450 area will be a point where the bearish bias is likely to strengthen

override condition

If stronger-than-expected Australian-related material leads to the 0.6530 holding steady.

If risk appetite improves due to lower US interest rates and higher equities, and the Australian dollar is widely bought back

If selling does not continue after testing lower prices and a rebounding trend is clearly established

risk event

Content and interpretation of the Australian Agenda.

Market attitude and interest rate trends ahead of US indices

Changes in risk appetite due to stock market fluctuations

position management

Positions are usually lighter than usual, with priority given to checking post-material fluctuations.

Gains are focused on short price ranges, with early adjustments near milestones

Losses are executed mechanically according to the criteria of the most recent return high or lower price break.

checklist

Change in tone of Australian minutes.

Direction of US interest rates and stock prices

Confirmation of reactions around 0.6500 and around 0.6450.

review

Tests of higher prices in Europe did not continue, but in New York, the trend was slightly higher than the previous day's highs due to interest rate trends

summary

The European hour was somewhat directionless, with a continued attack and defence of the highs but no break above.

In New York, the US interest rates were perceived to be picking up, creating a more favourable environment for dollar buying.

As a result, there was a slight movement above the previous day's high, with interest rate-linked price movements taking centre stage for the day.

Although there were temporary swings up and down, the flow itself was relatively straightforward and reactions to the material were calm.

Today's price movements

The first European session started with a test of the highs and a continued awareness of the upside.

Thereafter, the upside was heavy amid a mix of buying and selling, which did not lead to a clear breakthrough.

In the New York time, the dollar was bought predominantly against the backdrop of interest rate developments, and the upward movement was once again perceived to be in the direction of the US dollar.

The market remained mainly in a high range throughout the day, closing slightly above the previous day's highs.

Background and materials

Long-term US interest rates picked up over the New York hours, creating an environment conducive to buying dollars with interest rate differentials in mind.

The lack of material in the European hour made it difficult to get a sense of direction, and the market continued to swing back to higher levels.

Japanese side materials were limited, with relatively US interest rate developments being the main driver.

The mood was calm, with no signs of excessive risk appetite or aversion in the market as a whole

Technical memorandum (short term)

The market is slightly higher after a struggle at the highs, and short-term room for a push appears to be limited.

On the short-term line, one guide is around the European highs, and whether or not it is breached is likely to influence the next sense of direction.

The short-term focus is on whether the return trend of the New York time will be maintained, with volatility remaining relatively calm.

Although there were ups and downs in the short legs, the direction itself continued to be easily linked to interest rate trends

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium-term, the situation is likely to be renewed with a renewed awareness of the attack and defence of the milestone area in a trend that continues to be upwards-oriented.

The major trend is maintained despite certain adjustments, and the composition of the market continues to be buyable at the pushpoints.

The high price area has been stagnant for a long time, and the level that is perceived as a support zone is gradually being cut off.

Susceptibility to interest rate trends continues in the medium term, and confirmation of the external environment is essential for directional decisions.

impression

The day's price movements were a straightforward reaction to the return of interest rates, with a clear material bias in the market.

Temporary ups and downs were observed, but did not lead to excessive risk-taking, leaving the impression of calm.

Despite a certain amount of pushback, reactions around the milestones were stable and market participants were moderately cautious.

Overall, the day was easy to react to interest rate-related indicators and statements, with an easy transition.

trade observations

The ground was easy to flow-take in line with interest rate trends in New York, while confirming the heaviness of the European hour's upward movement.

It was more suitable to deal with small increments, checking reactions at the highs, rather than being overly directional.

It was important to note that the shallow pushing ground continued and the scope for short-term adjustment was likely to be limited.

I have the impression that it was possible to take a less risky approach by carefully following the reactions around the milestones.

checklist

Reconfirm intraday changes in interest rate trends

Carefully observe reactions around milestones.

Maintain a standing position that is not overly biased towards a sense of direction.

review

European hours were supported by an improved economic outlook, but the upside was heavy, and by the end of the New York session, selling became more prevalent and the previous day's low was broken.

summary

In Europe, the upward breakout was limited by the fact that sellers were waiting for a return, and the market moved slightly up and down within the range.

Euro buying momentum was sluggish in New York as interest rate trends strengthened slightly, limiting the return phase.

Overall, there was a lack of direction, and the situation remained heavy on the upside in the short term.

Today's price movements

Asian time continued the previous day's trend, with small movements between the main levels.

After entering Europe, the market tested the lows and remained range-bound on the return phase, without sustaining an upward breakout.

In New York, interest rates were perceived to have picked up, leading to a move below the previous day's low amid restrained returns.

Background and materials

Improved growth prospects in the eurozone have helped avoid excessive euro selling.

US indicators were slightly weaker, but market reaction was limited, and overall there was a lack of directional cues.

A day of interest rate developments and risk attitudes in the market ahead of statements from monetary authorities

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the return was weak while avoiding a break below the main support zone, and awareness of the lower end of the range remained

Short-term moving averages were flat, indicating a close balance between buying and selling.

Reaction was sluggish in the upper resistance zone, and the phase continued to be susceptible to a lack of short-term strength.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the situation continues to remain within the holding area and it remains difficult to determine the direction.

The main return levels were not clearly exceeded, and a wait-and-see stance was likely to be maintained overall.

There was a certain amount of buying back at lower prices, but the market remained unable to form a clear trend.

impression

The material was sporadic and easily judged, and the impression was that the market remained cautious, particularly with regard to interest rate developments.

Even with European support, the return was limited and the day was marked by a lack of direction in the market as a whole.

trade observations

In the short term, it was felt that a cautious response was required due to the lack of momentum in the return phase and the weak reaction in the upper resistance zone

A certain degree of buying strength was seen even when the market tested lower prices, giving the impression that fine price movements within the range continued.

checklist

Check the maintenance status of the main support zones.

Interest rate trends and related market reactions are closely monitored.

Confirming the positioning of European indicators and statements by officials.

review

The European hour saw a test of the downside, but the upside was heavy, and the NY hour remained directionless as the market waited for more material.

summary

The caution remained in the run-up to the UK price-related indicators, with cautious trading mainly due to a sense of fiscal uncertainty.

Some buying came in during the return test, but the momentum did not continue, and it did not lead to a move over the milestone.

In the NY hour, a lack of clues was strong and a wait-and-see attitude within the range prevailed.

Today's price movements

The downward pressure was preceded by a downward push in early Europe, followed by a gradual recovery but continued to be restrained to the upside.

Selling was predominant around the milestones and the price range remained limited.

No directional movement was observed in the New York time, and calm price movements were maintained with a small bias in trading volumes.

Background and materials

The UK's price developments attracted attention and were considered an important confirmation of the outlook for the next round of monetary policy.

Persistent caution over domestic fiscal management contributed to the pound's upside in the currency.

On the US side, there were few major cues, and calm, supply- and demand-driven trading continued.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Heavy reactions around the milestones and awareness of the ease of returning to the market.

Continued lack of directionality on the short time horizon, with little bias either upwards or downwards.

Many believed that the attack and defence around the reference line continued and that material was needed for a clear breakthrough.

Technical note (mid-term).

Continued containment of higher prices and continued awareness of slow returns

Buybacks are also confirmed at medium-term milestones, but the dominance has not yet reached a point where it is biased in one direction or the other.

The situation remained within a wide range and additional material was seen as necessary to form a sense of direction

impression

Lack of positive cues in both Europe and New York, and a general cautious attitude was evident.

The environment continues to be one of anticipation ahead of indicators and key figures, and trading seems calm, apart from brief swings.

Participants' attention was shifting to the next material and they continued to take a wait-and-see attitude

trade observations

Short-term returns were sluggishly extended, and careful trading was required to confirm the reaction.

There was room to pick up minor reversals within the range, but the environment was difficult to follow forcibly.

The operation was suitable based on a narrow price range without taking excessive risks

checklist

Reaction to milestones

Direction of price indices.

Liquidity situation in European and US time

review

A day in which the market was temporarily pushed lower during the Tokyo time, but was held to the downside by push-backs.

summary

Australian wage figures were in line with expectations and lacked new direction, weakening in the early part of the day, continuing the trend of the previous day.

Buying back in amidst a growing attitude to assessing US interest rate trends, leading to limited downside without leading to excessive selling.

In New York, US long-term interest rates were calm, with some push-back, while the US long-term interest rates were conscious of a pick-up in interest rates.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time pushed downwards to test the previous day's low area, but after a round of selling, buying gradually prevailed.

European hours lacked positive direction, but remained resilient as the market awaits US indices

In New York, the US dollar was bought on the back of a pick-up in US interest rates, but the AUD also picked up the push to the downside.

Background and materials

Australian wage index came in line with expectations, with limited market reaction and a lack of material for the Australian dollar.

Global stock price trends and risk attitudes have failed to stabilise, and the currency's position as a commodity currency has led to a heavy upside.

The impact of the US interest rate adjustment remained strong, with interest rate and dollar movements influencing market direction.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the state of the market continues to be offensive and defensive around the previous day's low, with a certain amount of buying demand confirmed at the push point.

Continued to hover around the moving average, with a predominant move to confirm lower prices, albeit with a somewhat lacklustre sense of direction.

Momentum was limited in the short-term return phase due to the awareness of an upper resistance zone.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market remains near the lower end of the range and remains cautious

The position of the moving averages showed a sluggish return and continued to lack direction.

The market lacked material to judge medium-term trends, and the market was looking for changes in the external environment.

impression

The impression is that Australian indicators were in line with expectations and lacked strength and weakness, and price movements were in a calm range.

On the other hand, there was also buying at lower prices, which was felt to be characteristic of the fact that it was not all about selling.

With continued awareness of interest rate and stock price fluctuations, the market is likely to focus on reactions to external materials.

trade observations

Buying back from the downside near the previous day's lows was confirmed, and there were occasions when short-term contrarianism was more likely to work

On the other hand, the upside remained heavy and it was difficult to follow the return, requiring cautious entry.

Limited price range management was felt to be effective in a lack of direction.

checklist

Check for changes in market liquidity and interest rate trends

Reassess the impact of Australian indices and risk attitudes.

Continue to check reactions near the lower end of the range.