Market summary

The dollar is struggling higher amid shaky US interest rate expectations and a sense of weakness in Japanese economic indicators.

The policy outlook for Japan and the US is unclear, and the tug-of-war between upside caution and the risk of a sudden appreciation of the yen continues, even against a backdrop of a weaker yen.

Assumed range

Today, the range is expected to be around 153.00-156.00, with the upper price range being the recent highs and the lower price range being a likely candidate for a push.

During times when indicators and key figures are scarce, it is easy for the market to move back and forth in a range, and new material will be needed for a clear break.

tactics

The basic stance is to avoid chasing highs and carefully pick up short-term pushes, while keeping a push-buy approach.

As long as the daily uptrend is maintained, it is safe to regard any sudden downturn as a temporary adjustment and to be prepared to combine split gains on the return phase.

trigger

On the upside, check for a continued break above the 155.50 area, with the entry condition being that the spread and volume remain calm after the break.

On the downside, we will see if the test from below 153.50 to the 153.00 area progresses, while we will use the phase where the downside stop sign is shown on the short-term leg as a candidate for a push.

override condition

If the price continues to break below 152.50 on a closing basis and the highs and lows become clear on a daily basis, we will revisit the push-buy scenario once more.

Even if US interest rates fall more than expected and the overall upward pressure on the dollar weakens, the stance of assuming a stronger dollar will need to be revised

risk event

If Japanese growth-related indicators or price statistics deviate from expectations, the Bank of Japan's stance could change and the direction of the yen could easily swing.

On the US side, manufacturing indicators and statements from monetary officials could move views on the timing of rate cuts and influence the trend of the dollar.

position management

Position sizes are kept lower than usual and stop-loss levels are placed outside the expected range so that they are less susceptible to being swept away by temporary noise.

Profit-taking is done in stages, using the most recent return highs and push lows as a guide, with the aim of not chasing too much unrealised profit at once.

checklist

Have you checked the position of the uptrend line and the major moving averages on the daily chart?

Are you aware of the calendar of major indicators due to be released today and the schedule of key figures' statements?

Have you checked in advance the balance between the stop-loss level placed outside the expected range and the risk reward?

Market summary

A firm report on euro-zone inflation indicators is due today, and there is an awareness of the balance between the extent of the slowdown in prices and the prospect of interest rate cuts.

The previous day, the upside was restrained and there were intermittent attempts to test the downside with a sluggish return.

The US side also has important indicators coming up, and is still looking for a sense of direction, keeping a close eye on interest rates and stock market trends.

Assumed range

The expected range is around 1.1550-1.1660, with a swing between the previous day's low and the recent return high in mind.

On the downside, it will be interesting to see if selling strengthens further at the previous day's low or slightly below that zone.

To the upside, the image is of a likely return to the upper 1.16s, and avoid chasing the pair as it approaches the upper end of the range.

tactics

The basic stance is to sell on the return, and to consider entry after waiting for the return phase in European time.

We want to maintain the image of taking a diversified position near clear milestones and carefully picking up short-term price gaps.

Avoid jumping in immediately after a break below a milestone, as it is easy to get caught in an overdrive to the downside

trigger

The initial reaction after the first firm report of the euro-zone inflation indicator will be the first decision on whether the euro sell-off will be predominant.

If the previous day's low is clearly below the previous day's low and the return continues to be weak, a slightly stronger return stance should be considered.

On the other hand, if the indicator turns up and continues to ride into the 1.16s, we would switch to a wait-and-see approach.

override condition

If the pair breaks clearly above the 1.1660 area and settles above it, we would like to revisit the return scenario.

If the market quickly turns back up after testing the downside and breaks above the previous day's highs, the assumption of a downside advantage should be removed once more.

Refrain from aggressive trading even when volatility drops sharply after an indicator and a narrow price range stalemate persists.

risk event

If the Eurozone inflation indicator's confirmed reading deviates significantly from expectations, watch out for a brief change in direction.

Be aware of downside risks to the euro-dollar due to dollar buy-backs in the event of a sharp move in US business confidence-related indicators or long-term interest rates

Flexibility to not stick to prior scenarios when sentiment changes due to key figures' statements or sudden headlines

position management

Overall, we want to keep the lot size somewhat low and trade in a size that can withstand swings within the expected range.

Losses should be placed slightly outside the recent highs and lows, and an early exit should be made in the event of a different movement than expected.

Priority should be given to taking profits without being too greedy, for example, by placing them a little before the centre of the range.

checklist

Did you check how the volume and board thickness around the milestones changed before and after the European entry?

Are you aware of the price movements and spread widening before and after the index and can you picture the execution risk?

Have you sorted out the daily candlestick shape and the pattern of highs and lows in the last few days and checked for any inconsistencies with the scenario?

Market summary

Speculation on the interest rate outlook is mixed ahead of the UK CPI, and the US side continues to find it difficult to give a sense of direction ahead of the meeting summary.

The pound dollar is converging at highs and lows with ups and downs and a sense of holding.

Despite short-term attempts at a return, neither the upside nor the downside has been clearly breached, and the transition continues to search for a power relationship.

A wait-and-see attitude remains ahead of major events, and the ground is likely to be a wait-and-see situation for the exit of the holding.

Assumed range

Around 1.3100 - around 1.3190

No clear breakthrough both up and down, and the awareness of the situation remains within a holding frame.

Price range is likely to be limited until the event passes.

Direction can easily change depending on the material.

tactics

range rotation

Ready to pick up small push-backs while checking the upside and downside

Avoid excessive following on the assumption that the holding will continue.

Prioritise early withdrawal in the event of a sudden change.

trigger

The upside is a confirmed exceedance of the 1.3190 area.

Downside is a clear break below around 1.3100

Initial reaction after UK CPI and US minutes.

Note also the momentum going into European time.

override condition

If the upper or lower holding limit is passed with strong momentum

If the post-event direction is biased in one direction

If a series of short-term return attempts continue

If the reaction of the main lines slows down

risk event

British CPI

FOMC Minutes.

Preliminary European and US PMIs.

UK retail related data.

position management

Moderate size and keep rotation within the expected range.

Set gains in small increments and make adjustments based on a limited sense of price range.

Losses are executed earlier in line with the up/down break movement.

Avoid leaving positions after sudden changes.

checklist

Tilt of the holding and degree of proximity to the upper and lower edges

Directionality around UK CPI and US Agenda

Flow and momentum after the start of European hours

Market summary

In Australia, while early rate cut speculation is receding against the backdrop of resilient employment indicators, the mood remains wait-and-see as wage indicators and RBA-related events are scheduled for this week.

On the US side, interest rate expectations have come and gone, with a mix of buying back into the dollar and a return to risk appetite, and the Australian dollar is also susceptible to changes in the external environment.

The AUDUSD is mainly in the 0.65 range at the moment, and after a round of gains over the past week, it has started without a major breakdown, although it is aware of a slight upward pressure.

The daily trend line is aware of the area around the moving average, and whether it can be maintained is likely to be a focal point in the early part of the week.

Assumed range

Today, the main scenario is a range around 0.6450-0.6550, with a push-buying appetite in the low 0.64s and a sell-back mindset in the mid 0.65s.

In the Asian time, the price range is likely to be limited as we wait for the event, and we should expect to see a tendency for ups and downs to be tested by US interest rates and stock market movements from London onwards.

On a weekly basis, the position is still slightly in a return trend, but is prone to adjustments at the high end, so it is important to be aware of the need to separate the short- and medium-term range feeling.

Rather than assuming a major trend change, the first phase is to carefully check the direction of convergence and break within the above range.

tactics

The basic tactic is to range, and it is safe to consider gradual push-buying without excessive chasing around 0.6450, and to be prepared to sell back around 0.6550 as an option.

New entries near the middle of the range tend to have poor risk rewards, so it is important to be aware of the volatility and spread of the range, and to focus on a limit price that is pulled back as much as possible.

If short-term technical indicators show overheating, regardless of the direction, it is better to reduce the size of the position once and leave room for a wait-and-see attitude, so that it is easier to respond to swings during events.

There is room to consider the option of not being greedy for price action during times when it is difficult to get a sense of direction, and limiting entries to a limited number of good positions rather than multiple intraday rotations.

trigger

The trigger to the upside is a firming above 0.6550, and a clear break above this level would make it easier to consider following the upper range extension in the short term.

On the downside, a warning line is below 0.6450, and a move below on a closing basis could trigger a more cautious reassessment of the buy stance.

In the time zone, price movements in the morning in London and around the release of US indices in early New York often determine the intra-day range, so care should be taken not to add too many new positions around these times.

As the release of the Australian wage index approaches, spreads are likely to widen when liquidity is thin in Oceania time, and market orders should be handled with caution.

override condition

If the pair quickly moves to the 0.6600 level on the upside and stays at the highs all day, the range-bound return strategy will need to be reviewed and there will be room to consider trend-following.

On the downside, if the price stays below 0.6400 for a long time or a rapid risk-off market triggered by the event materialises, a switch to flat is an option for the stance on the push-buy assumption.

If the technicals show a slow return despite a significant break below a moving average or trend line, this is a sign that the perception of short-term support has broken down and a cautious decision is required.

In both cases, it is important to consider it as a time to revise the scenario itself when the price movement clearly exceeds the volatility or intra-day range that you had assumed.

risk event

With the Australian wage index and RBA-related releases scheduled for this week, the timing is likely to change the market's view of the future interest rate path depending on the strength or weakness of wage inflation.

On the US side, inflation and business confidence indicators are forthcoming, and the general direction of the dollar may be influenced by the reaction of interest rates and stock markets, so attention should be paid not only to the results but also to how the market perceives them.

News about China and resource prices is likely to influence Australian dollar sentiment, and it is important to keep an eye on iron ore prices and headlines related to China.

It is advisable to reconfirm the basic rule of not leaving positions open for long periods of time, as unscheduled key figures' statements and geopolitical risk headlines can easily cause significant price movements in a short period of time.

position management

On days like today, when there are multiple events coming up, the priority is to keep position sizes lower than usual and to ensure that there is adequate room for losses and gains outside the expected range.

Even when combining buying near the lower end of the range and selling near the upper end, it is effective to operate with an awareness of the average opening price, assuming split entries and split closes, rather than opening all at once.

It is easy to get caught in widening spreads and temporary whiskers before and after indicators, so a pre-determined time of day when you refrain from placing new orders and concentrate on managing positions you have opened in advance can help reduce risk.

It is also easier to reduce mental instability if you also operate with monetary-based rules, such as deciding on the maximum allowable daily loss ahead of time and not making new entries when that level is reached.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule and content of the Australian wage index and RBA-related headlines?

Are you aware of how movements in US interest rates and stock indices are spilling over into the overall dollar and AUDUSD?

Have you made a specific decision on the expected range, stop-loss level and the maximum allowable loss for today before entering the market?

review

Buying was seen in Tokyo and Europe, and buying momentum strengthened in New York and exceeded last week's highs, but the market settled at higher levels.

summary

The yen was conscious of its upside potential, and overall the day was a day of continued support for the dollar.

Buying prevailed over the overseas hours and continued to hold the level around the milestone.

Market reaction was limited and there was no excessive reaction to the material.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the trend from the previous day continued, with moderate buying prevailing.

The European time was similarly directional, with a certain amount of buying back on the downside.

In New York, buying strengthened and the market closed higher, exceeding last week's highs at times.

Background and materials

The US index remained firm, which was seen as a support for the dollar.

Speculation on US monetary policy remained largely unchanged, limiting yen buying due to swings in risk appetite.

On the Japanese side, there were no significant changes in economic indicators or policy developments, and market attention turned to external factors.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The structure remained shallowly pushed, while maintaining a high level in the short-term leg of the market.

Although the market was seen to be struggling around the milestone, buyers were aware of the likely buying opportunities at the lower end of the range.

Towards the end of the day, the momentum calmed down and the range of values gradually decreased.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the trend was seen to remain on an upward trend, with a predominant trend being to pick up the push.

The direction of the market remained largely unchanged, as buying was more likely to occur around the moving average.

On the other hand, there was also a cautious attitude at higher prices and excessive following was restrained.

impression

Underlying support was confirmed despite a lack of material, and direction was easily influenced by external factors.

The short-term momentum overlapped with the medium-term tone, and the overall buying trend appeared to prevail, albeit quietly.

The market reaction will be closely monitored, as it is likely to change depending on the price range and materials.

trade observations

The shallowness of the push was confirmed by the reaction around the milestone.

The ease of buying back into the market was impressive, although the highs were cautiously high.

The impression was that adjustments should be made in line with short-term waves and that unreasonable positions should be avoided.

checklist

Have you checked the reaction around the milestone?

Did you compare the depth of the push with the strength of the return?

Did they take into account the direction of overseas time?

review

A day of lack of direction in Tokyo and Europe, with dollar buying prevailing in New York, strengthening the trend to test lower prices.

summary

The sluggish growth of price indicators in the eurozone, combined with the cautious attitude of officials, continued to weigh on the upside.

The US dollar was easily supported by resilience in US indicators and the receding speculation of early easing.

Returns were limited and mainly remained at low levels until the end of the day

Overall, there was an awareness of a straightforward weakening of the euro and strengthening of the dollar in line with the material

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours remained in a small range, with price movements lacking a sense of direction.

After entering Europe, return selling prevailed, confirming the heavy upward pressure.

In New York, the dollar was bought and tested the downside, cutting the lows slightly.

Returns were limited towards the close and the trend remained weak throughout.

Background and materials

Growth in price-related indicators in the euro-zone slowed, creating an environment conducive to the prospect of interest rate cuts.

The cautious attitude of officials was confirmed and there were few factors that could lead to aggressive euro buying.

US indicators showed resilience and the dollar remained relatively firm

The overall trend remained in favour of the dollar, while the market remained attentive to key statistics and statements by officials

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, an upper resistance zone was perceived, making it easier to sell on the return phase.

The lower price held some support, but the momentum of the reversal was weak and the direction was tilted to the downside

Oscillators remained near neutral territory, with limited bias in terms of strength and weakness.

In the short term, price movements continued to be at the lower end of the range

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the trend remained below the major moving averages and the return trend continued to pause

The flow was easily aware of a slight heaviness as it continued to fail to cross the upper price milestone.

The balance of the price range tended to tilt downwards, but signs of a major breakdown were limited.

From a medium-term perspective, the shape of the holding between the support and resistance zones was confirmed.

impression

The market continued to be directionless and there was a strong short-term wait for material.

The impression remained that the US dollar maintained its relative strength due to the perceived resilience of US indicators

Weakness in material on the euro side of the equation made it easy to suppress any return momentum.

It is felt that the series of price movements were mainly straightforward reactions in line with the material

trade observations

It was difficult to extend either up or down, and it was necessary to accumulate a fine price range.

Although there were some return sales, there were many price movements that were difficult to follow.

It was also difficult to judge short-term pushback, and excessive position management was to be avoided.

It was a day when a clear breakthrough was difficult to achieve and a cautious response was required.

checklist

Confirmation of key indicators and statements

Understanding the upper and lower limits of short-term ranges

Observations on whether the trend of dollar dominance will continue

review

Buying was seen in Europe, but the dollar strengthened and returned to the upside by New York.

summary

In the European hour, downside concerns receded slightly, but overall it was difficult to get a clear sense of direction.

The dollar was easily bought during the New York hour, and the ups and downs were restrained as the holding pattern continued.

Despite reactions to short-term materials, the day was not conducive to a major change in the underlying tone.

Today's price movements

Early in Europe, there was a buy-back and a lull in the downward trend was seen for a period of time

In New York, dollar buying prevailed, reducing the gains that had been built up in Europe.

As a result, there was mainly back and forth within the holding area, with limited directional movement.

Background and materials

The market's continued cautious attitude towards the UK's fiscal management was a factor in restraining the return of the pound.

Meanwhile, in the US, the US dollar continued to be held back but bought easily as indicators were released.

Both currencies were difficult to find positive direction and reactions to materials were likely to switch from one time zone to another.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The price continued to hold on the short-term axis and was unable to break out of both the upward and downward direction.

There was a tendency for trading to intersect around the milestone, with moves being pushed back if a return was made.

There were short periods of up and down swings, but not enough momentum to dictate the flow.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the trend remained in a wide range, making it difficult to judge the direction of the trend.

Reactions around milestones provided certain clues, but movements with continuity were limited

The time of day was more influential than the material, and both the upside and downside were less decisive.

impression

The impression was that the strength and weakness of the material swapped between time zones, and the transition continued in a lack of direction.

Despite short-term movements, the overall trend was difficult to consolidate and a cautious stance was perceived.

It was felt that the environment was likely to continue to hold similarly, unless there was some sudden material.

trade observations

There were many difficult push/pull decisions due to a mixture of buying back in Europe and selling back in New York

It was difficult to pick up on short-term reactions, and it was hard to continue the movement and extend gains.

Until there was a clear direction, it was a phase that required a cautious approach, without pushing too hard to follow it.

checklist

Price movements do not maintain a holding range?

Has the material reaction changed between Europe and New York?

Are reactions around milestones consistent?

review

A day of lack of direction in Tokyo and Europe, with dollar buying prevailing in New York, leading to further downward pressure.

summary

Overall, the Australian dollar is conscious of the dollar-dominated trend, with the Australian dollar showing a slow return.

Aggressive cues were scarce with major events on the horizon, and pressure was felt towards the lower end of the range

The mood remained cautious throughout the day, with the end of the day mainly in a lower price range

Today's price movements

Tokyo time is dominated by small comings and goings due to material difficulties, with limited sense of direction.

The European hour was also marked by a mixture of buying back and selling back, with the price range not widening.

In New York, the dollar was predominantly bought to the downside and headed towards the close with a slow return.

Background and materials

Continued swings in speculation about US monetary policy and interest rate volatility led to dollar firmness.

Global risk aversion is a concern and the Australian dollar is difficult to buy due to sensitivities to resources and economic trends.

Cautiousness across the market ahead of Australian-related indicators and major national economic events

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market is likely to be conscious of a return to the market, and the upward pressure is noticeable.

The attack around the milestone continued, and the rebound phase remained limited.

A downside stop can be seen once near support, but a clear turnaround is difficult to confirm.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the structure continues to move within a wide range, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

The line-up of moving averages is a mixture of strength and weakness, giving the impression that it is difficult to form a clear trend.

Medium-term: waiting for material and can easily swing either up or down depending on the external environment.

impression

There were no major changes in the day's flow, and the main driver was the resilience of the dollar.

The return phase was not accompanied by any momentum, and there was a renewed awareness of the lack of buying power in the Australian dollar.

The impression is that the market remains cautious, trying to assess the next events and indicators.

trade observations

Short-term return selling is likely to continue to work, but excessive following should be avoided in this situation.

When chasing lower prices, beware of a rebound around the milestone, but a reasonable adjustment of positions is required.

Medium-term is difficult to get a clear direction, so maintain a wait-and-see attitude for clues

checklist

Check reactions around milestones.

Check for changes in interest rate and dollar trends

Confirm the positioning of major events and the market's incorporation of these events.