Market summary

On the previous day, uncertainty over US indicators led to dollar selling, and the USDJPY was conscious of the weight of the upside.

Today, too, it is difficult to get a sense of direction with limited clues, and we are in a phase where we need to carefully check interest rate trends and overseas flows.

It remains difficult to read the demand for rebalancing due to weekend factors, and it should be noted that short-term swings are likely to occur.

Assumed range

Lower prices are likely to confirm the settlement level.

Zone where the upside is likely to be weighed near psychological milestones.

Overall, composition to be aware of the range around XX to XX.

tactics

Today, we will maintain a range rotation basis and avoid following sudden swings.

If there is a slow escape either up or down, consider a short, contrarian response.

During times when there is no movement, the priority is to make a decision not to force a position.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the recent return high area would confirm a change in the flow.

The downward direction will determine whether the adjustment will be extended if the potential push is broken.

The outcome of US indicators and changes in interest rates before and after their release will determine short-term direction.

override condition

If a strong transition clearly outside the central band continues, the assumed range will be reset once

Scenarios will also be reviewed if there is a prolonged bias in one direction in thin trading

We will withdraw our original tactic if flows change rapidly due to unexpected material in overseas markets.

risk event

US retail-related indicators.

Statistics confirming price trends.

Flow factors affecting weekend supply and demand.

position management

Sizes are kept more restrained than usual and are limited to withstand short-term swings.

Interest gains are made early, even if they are small, and are sorted out once the price movement has stopped.

Losses are mechanically executed at points outside the central zone and deep cuts are avoided.

checklist

Check the volatility of interest rates and the reaction before and after US indices.

Monitor foreign flows for bias.

Check from time to time for adjustments due to weekend factors.

Market summary

The previous day, the dollar softened and the euro was supported, and the uptrend continued, but a phase where material confirmation is needed to sustain momentum.

Relative interest rate observations are likely to influence the direction of the market due to a combination of price and growth indicator confirmations in Europe and a series of inflation-related announcements in the US.

The situation is prone to a mix of risk appetite and adjustment speculation, with weekend flows adding to the situation and short-term swings to watch out for.

The environment is prone to a mix of buy-backs and profit-taking, with price movements swinging both upwards and downwards.

Assumed range

The lower limit is a push level with an awareness of the low to mid 1.16s.

The upper limit is the zone of easy return to the high 1.16s to just before 1.17.

It is difficult to plunge either up or down, and this is a situation where caution should be exercised in the face of short-term, unbalanced price movements.

The ease with which weekend-specific adjustments can be made should be taken into account.

tactics

The basic principle is based on range rotation, and only responds to situations where material is available by checking the direction.

The intersection of heavy upside and firm downside prices means that it is useful to be prepared not to move excessively in one direction.

Modest adjustment to price taking, assuming both push-back and return sales.

In the short term, do not ride too fast on the momentum of price movements and prioritise managing for reversal risk.

trigger

On the upside, check for a break above the 1.16s to see if it is easy to buy back into the market.

On the downside, watch for the 1.16 area to hold, and if it breaks, watch for further profit-taking.

Volatility is likely to increase during the release time of US inflation-related indicators.

Be aware of sudden fluctuations caused by statements and headlines.

override condition

If the 1.16 break below 1.16 is established, the assumption of a push formation will recede.

Conversely, a clear break above the 1.17 front is likely to disrupt the return assumption strategy.

If the directional price movement continues to lean too far to one side, the range assumption should be reviewed.

Refrain from unreasonably following a sudden change in short-term volume.

risk event

US inflation-related indicators.

Updated data related to prices and growth in Europe.

Weekend-specific position adjustment trends.

Sudden key figures' statements.

position management

Size is set more conservatively than usual and adjusted to accommodate changes in directional feel.

Gains are based on shallow gains, and rewards are secured by pulling in.

Cutting losses is based on the most recent milestone and avoids unreasonable persistence.

Over the weekend, take into account the risk of carrying over.

checklist

Are inflation indicators and interest rate observations becoming increasingly biased?

Does the 1.16 area continue to function as a push point?

How much return pressure remains before 1.17

Market summary

UK business-related indicators continue to show sluggish growth, making it difficult to find a direction to judge policy stance.

In the US, uncertainty over consumption and prices is a concern, and the US dollar continues to be susceptible to a mixture of returns and adjustments.

The day before, dollar selling prevailed and the major currencies as a whole rallied, but continued to be cautious of swings due to weekend flows.

The currency pair is likely to remain on a return to the market while testing the upside, and the phase is one where reactions to material should be carefully monitored.

Assumed range

The lower limit is around 1.31, which could confirm a temporary push.

The upper limit is around 1.32, a level that is easily used as an upper limit on the return phase.

Broadly speaking, we should keep in mind that the range is between the high 1.30s and low 1.32s.

Note that the widening of the price range is likely to depend on the results of US indicators and weekend adjustment flows.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on a return sale and consider entry on a short-term rebound.

Avoid excessive following and take a cautious approach, checking for material and smooth price movements.

Avoid selling unreasonably in the lower price range, and try to make flexible decisions in combination with a wait-and-see approach.

Maintain a cautious stance until there is a sense of direction while utilising the range up and down.

trigger

The upside is around 1.32, and we will consider a return review if there is a clear move above it.

A downside is below 1.31, a level that could easily signal a short-term change in trend.

Price movements are likely to be volatile before and after the release of US indicators, and special attention should be paid to reactions in the immediate aftermath.

Asian time is less liquid, and preparation is required for price widening from the start of Europe onwards.

override condition

If a break above the 1.32 level is established, the return policy will have to be adjusted

On the downside, the assumption of a push formation weakens if a rebound around 1.31 cannot be confirmed

If price movements do not react to the material and lack direction, tactics need to be re-examined

When weekend flows are unexpectedly skewed, the premise of a short-term strategy is more likely to break down

risk event

US price-related indicators.

US consumption-related indicators

Statements by key figures in the US and Europe.

position management

Lots are set at a lower level than usual and are prepared for sudden price increases.

We will try to operate with shorter profit margins and reduce the risk of reversals.

Losses are placed shallowly and changes in direction are detected earlier.

Refrain from aggressive trading if there is a long period of stagnation in the high and low price areas

checklist

Priority is given to checking the reaction of the dollar after US indicators.

Upside weight and volume in the vicinity of 1.32

Momentum and push for a break below 1.31

Market summary

While Australian employment-related indicators show resilience, uncertainty over US monetary policy remains, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

The previous day saw a sell-back after a day of buying, and the market was conscious of the heaviness of the upside.

Ground is susceptible to swings in the short term, partly due to weekend flows.

Environment sensitive to changes in external factors and prone to price movements depending on the material

Assumed range

Lower limit assumed to be around 0.65

Upper limit should be around 0.66

Gradually heavier upside, with slower returns.

Difficult to plunge downwards, but wary of breaking milestones

tactics

The basic approach is to take a cautious approach, focusing on returns.

Do not follow a sharp rebound, check for a stop in the return and join in.

Push-buying should be short-lived unless supported by material

Focus on local momentum rather than overall flow

trigger

Revisit the return line of sight above 0.66.

Confirmation of downside acceleration below 0.65.

Reactions on China-related indicators in Asian time.

Beware of volatility before and after the release of US indices.

override condition

The assumption of upside weight is broken when the 0.66 level is established.

If the rebound strengthens after a break below 0.65 and a push formation becomes clear

When unidirectional flow due to external materials continues.

Situations where major indicators reacted in the opposite direction to expected.

risk event

Chinese industrial production and consumption-related indicators.

US monetary policy-related statements and interest rate developments.

Supply and demand bias due to weekend rebalancing

Variation in the time of day when large flows are likely to occur.

position management

Size is more modest than usual.

Take profits shallowly and prioritise withdrawal on reversal.

Losses are executed mechanically based on milestones.

Lighten your position once in the event of an unexpected sudden change.

checklist

Check China-related indicators and AUD reaction.

Understand changes in US interest rates and the strength of the dollar

Check for weekend flow bias.

review

A day of back-and-forth in the second half of Europe, with the dollar selling off due to lower US long-term interest rates, and a buy-back prevailing in New York.

summary

European hours softened slightly as interest rates fell and the dollar was easily sold.

In New York, the rebound has been progressing, almost eliminating the intraday downward pressure.

Overall, the direction of the market was limited, with adjustments mainly based on interest rate cues.

Today's price movements

The downward trend continued into the second half of Europe, with some slow returns at key junctures.

Buying returned early in the New York session, absorbing the first-half push and regaining composure.

Although there was a certain amount of ups and downs, the end of the day was in a stable zone.

Background and materials

Long-term US interest rates fell during European hours, triggering a sell-off in the dollar.

In New York, interest rates stopped falling and risk trends also provided clues, making it easier to buy back in.

Interest in US and Japanese monetary policy remained strong, with statements and interest rate observations influencing price movements.

Technical memorandum (short term)

A downward push in the European hour caused the short-term line to fall below the line, but a rebound in New York caused it to exceed it again.

On the upside, the recent return highs were conscious and some moves were seen to be pushed back without being able to break out.

In the short term, the market continued to move back and forth, with price movements mainly lacking a sense of direction.

Technical note (mid-term).

The market continued to hold moderately at the medium-term line and remained aware of the upper and lower milestones.

At the push point, a medium-term support zone worked and triggered a rebound.

On the other hand, there was also a clear barrier to the upside, and many believed that material support would be needed to break through.

impression

The day was not a directional one, as the market continued to be reactive to interest rates.

The flow switched between Europe and New York, and the impression was that the traffic was dominated by short-term forces.

Price movements were more likely to swing the more materially poor the time of day, so detailed decisions were necessary.

trade observations

The downward push in Europe was difficult to follow and the return was slow at times.

The New York buyback was easy to follow the trend, but the environment was difficult to follow excessively.

There were many periods of up and down swings, and risk management was a priority.

checklist

Identify changes in interest rate trends

Watch for reactions around the upper and lower milestones

Beware of flow switching in Europe and New York.

review

In the second half of the European session, the dollar was sold in response to lower interest rates, followed by a buy-back in New York and back and forth.

summary

Interest rates and sentiment were the key factors, and the euro continued to be underpinned in the early stages.

Short-term position adjustments prevailed from the middle of the period onwards, as investors became aware of swings in equities and bonds.

Buying returned towards the end of the day, and the euro remained calm as it was unable to chase higher prices.

Today's price movements

Asian hours were directionless, with limited price movements continuing.

In the European hour, the euro slowly moved lower as dollar sales were dominated by lower interest rates.

In the New York hour, the dollar was bought back in line with fluctuations in other markets, turning into a traffic-driven trend.

Background and materials

Changes in US interest rates were a key theme, with the declining trend weighing on the dollar in the early stages.

New material on the European side was limited, and swings in risk appetite affected short-term movements.

In New York, the overall direction of the currencies was dulled by the volatility of equities and bonds.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market remained in a range, with a certain amount of downside but also some upside.

There was a mix of return selling and push-buying around the milestone, making it difficult to get a clear sense of direction.

Oscillators were mostly in neutral territory, while momentum was mixed in terms of strength and weakness.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market maintained a gradual pick-up, but remained aware of the upper resistance zone.

Certain support zones remained alive, making it easier for a rebound to enter on the downside.

The medium-term moving averages were sideways and the trend was in an unclear phase.

impression

The external environment, particularly interest rates, continued to oscillate and short-term price movements seemed fluid.

The euro was alternating between buybacks and sellbacks, making it difficult to see a clear direction.

It was a day with little material and the market was felt to be sensitive to swings in other markets.

trade observations

The price range was limited and trading was mainly focused on picking up short-term reactions.

There were many occasions when the sense of direction was weak and it was felt that it would be best to avoid following the market forcibly.

It was necessary to fine-tune the posture in response to changes in interest rates.

checklist

Linkage between interest rates and other markets

Functions of support and resistance zones.

Availability of response to short-term swings

review

A day of ups and downs but lack of direction following reports of UK tax policy and lower US interest rates

summary

Early European hours were dominated by UK tax-related reports, which led to a noticeable swing in the interest rate trend.

US long-term interest rates fell from mid-Europe onwards, shifting to an environment conducive to dollar selling.

However, no major trend was formed and a holding pattern continued, with the highs and lows gradually narrowing.

The trend was centred on short-term swings, with no clear sense of direction until the end of the day.

Today's price movements

The pound swung up and down early in the European session against a backdrop of volatility in UK interest rates.

The dollar was more likely to be sold during the hours when US Treasury yields fell, easing downward pressure.

However, the price range was limited, and both highs and lows continued to be astringent, with a mixture of devaluation and appreciation.

There was no movement out of the holding pattern towards the end of the game.

Background and materials

Reports of the UK's decision to abandon an increase in income tax rates attracted attention and affected market interest rate observations.

The pick-up in UK interest rates led to short-term swings in the pound, making it difficult to get a sense of direction

Long-term interest rates fell in the US, creating conditions conducive to dollar selling.

However, the impact of the material was limited and did not significantly change the market tone.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, a holding pattern was formed where the highs and lows gradually narrowed, with ups and downs swings.

Short-term equilibrium conditions were slightly prevailing, making it difficult to generate vigorous push-backs and returns.

Short-term price fluctuations remained limited and lacked a sense of direction.

No clear breakout was identified even near the milestone, and reactions were limited.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the situation remained within a range and there was no clarity of direction

There were ups and downs, but little movement to indicate a change in the medium-term trend.

The market was in a competitive situation, with the dominance of return selling and push-buying switching sides at times.

Price movements continued to search within a medium-term range, with limited reaction to materials.

impression

A day of mixed UK materials and US interest rate developments made it difficult for markets to find positive direction.

Unidirectional flows were scarce and the environment tended to be dominated by short-term-driven trading.

Although materials were released, they were not strong enough to move the market significantly, and the market remained in a holding pattern.

From a medium-term perspective, the search continued within the equilibrium zone and there was an undeniable lack of movement.

trade observations

The lack of direction meant that excessive following was a risky development.

Entry was possible in response to short-term reactions, but the limited price range made it difficult to secure margins.

Reactions to milestones also lacked clarity and points of advantage were limited

Overall, it was a phase that required a cautious approach.

checklist

Check for material continuity and changes in interest rate trends

Verify whether the holding continues or not on a short-term basis.

Do not expect excessive reactions around milestones

review

The day started with some buying in Tokyo, but was then dominated by a return to the market, and the direction of the dollar was not set in the second half of the day in Europe, while US interest rates fell and the dollar was sold off more strongly.

summary

Although the Australian dollar was bought in the early stages of the market, a return to the market was felt on the upside.

In the second half of the European session, the dollar was sold against the backdrop of lower US interest rates, and the Australian dollar was volatile, with a mixture of downward pressure and a pick-up.

As a result, the day closed with little substance and without a full set of reactions to intraday material.

Today's price movements

Tokyo started with a predominantly buying trend and tested the upward direction once, continuing the previous day's trend.

However, a gradual return sell-off prevailed and the market remained heavy after entering Europe.

In the second half of the European session, US interest rates fell and the dollar was sold, but the return of the Australian dollar was also limited, and the price movement continued to lack direction.

Background and materials

While there was an awareness of the resilience of the Australian economy, caution about the Chinese economy restrained the return of the Australian dollar.

With continued uncertainty over US monetary policy, swings in the level of interest rates were likely to influence the direction of exchange rates.

The market reaction to external risk factors was unsteady, resulting in a lack of energy to the Australian dollar.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the upward pressure was noticeably heavier, and the phase continued in which pressure to return to the market was likely to prevail.

The daily trend has been lacking substance and the direction of the short-term trend is difficult to define.

Although there was some push-back in the short-term support zone, the transition continued to lack momentum.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, there is no clear break out of the holding zone and the market continues to swing up and down.

Stalling continued in key resistance zones, with a slight lack of energy to the upside.

The environment remains susceptible to external materials, making it difficult to consolidate medium-term trends.

impression

Buying and selling were mixed throughout the day, giving the impression that the stance of market participants is tilted towards caution.

Although there was some dollar selling associated with changes in US interest rates, the Australian dollar itself had limited thrust.

The day was marked by a continued lack of direction and a noticeable disparity in price movements.

trade observations

Return selling prevailed on many occasions and it was difficult to follow the upward direction for long periods of time.

Although there was buying at the pushes, it was difficult to extend, and short-term settlements were the main focus.

The lack of directionality meant that the market required position management with low risk.

checklist

Confirmation of short-term return points and support zones.

Check US interest rate trends and the reaction of the dollar.

Understanding changes in the external environment (China-related and market sentiment)