Market summary

The previous day, the dollar remained in a strong buying trend and closed higher, while the yen remained sluggish in its return.

The situation in the market is mixed with speculation over interest rate observations ahead of US price indexes and statements by officials, while the composition of the US-Japan interest rate differential remains unchanged.

Although there is a sense of caution on the part of the authorities, at present there is a lack of material that would clearly tilt the yen towards buying, and it is easy to be aware that the yen is likely to hover in a high price range.

Assumed range

Today's main scenario is a range between the recent highs and the recent levels that are likely to be candidates for a push.

The price range should be kept rather wide, as there are many events between European and US hours, and the market is likely to continue to swing up and down.

A phase where a range view should be assumed for both attempts to renew highs and for testing the previous day's lows and short-term support zones.

tactics

The basic stance is to follow the upward trend and buy on the push, but be cautious about chasing higher prices and wait for adjustment situations.

If a shallow push is made in Asian time, the image is to adjust the average opening price by split entry, based on the risk of swinging around the European entry and US indices.

If there is a sharp short-term return, the priority is to wait and see, and enter the market only after confirming the depth of the push and the accompanying volume.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the recent highs, and whether the upper price dwell time becomes longer is a key point to consider when considering follow-on purchases.

Watch for a clear break below the previous day's low and short-term support band on the downside, as a sign of a weakening push-back scenario once the return is slow to take shape.

As for the time frame, the scene to check the flow in early Europe and the direction of the initial and second stage movements immediately after the release of the US price index as candidate triggers.

override condition

Conditions that weaken the push-back assumption scenario if the sell-off from the highs is larger than expected and the market falls below several support zones in a short period of time.

If, after a volatile move after an indicator, the price remains heavy on the upside all day near the lows rather than at the highs, it is a sign that the assumption of a trend continuation needs to be revised.

Avoid following the market forcibly, even when statements and headlines from key authorities trigger a sharp increase in volatility and price movements seem far removed from actual demand.

risk event

US price indexes tend to be directly linked to interest rate observations, an event that requires attention to widening spreads and sudden price jumps in the minutes before and after the announcement.

Note that during times when US monetary officials' comments are concentrated, changes in nuances regarding the timing of rate cuts and interest rate levels are likely to affect the direction of the dollar.

Economic indicators and key figures on the Japanese side may also trigger a buy-back of the yen, depending on the timing, so it is important to check schedules and headline levels in advance.

position management

Conscious of operating with a lower position size than usual before and after events and adjusting open interest to match pre-determined acceptable risk.

Rather than aiming for a large price range all at once, the image of profit-taking is a combination of partial handing off at milestones and near recent highs and lows to limit fluctuations in unrealised profits.

It is important to set the level and lot in advance so that losses are based on a breakdown of short-term support or a departure outside the expected range, and can be executed without hesitation once it has been reached.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule and content of the US price index and monetary authorities' statements in advance?

Do you know the position of the most recent high/low and short-term support/resistance on the chart?

Is the position size and allowed risk excessive in relation to the expected range and stop-loss level?

Market summary

The previous day was directionless and traded in a relatively narrow range

On the euro side, growth and prices have not been assessed and the mood remains wait-and-see on the future of monetary policy.

The dollar side is susceptible to swings in interest rate levels and risk appetite, with a mix of strong and weak factors.

Today is the time to see if there is a move out of the range through the flow after the entry of the Europeans and their reaction to the indicators.

Assumed range

The lower limit is around the zone of potential pushpoints that had been identified by the previous day

The upper limit is around the high end of the range, which is prone to return sales, and is considered to be the upper edge of the range for the time being.

Until there is clear material on both the upside and downside, we assume that the market is likely to correct its excesses.

We need to check the volume and smoothness of price movements around the milestones to determine the validity of the range.

tactics

The basic stance is to range, with a cautious push to the downside and a return to the upside.

Trading in one direction should be restrained and limited to short term price action.

Priority is given to adjusting existing positions rather than new ones when a break is suspected.

During times when it is difficult to see direction, it is safe to lighten positions and focus on observation.

trigger

The upside will be determined by whether the upper range limit is clearly crossed and whether the price can be held above it.

The downside is the phase where you want to see if the potential pushback remains weak afterwards.

Price movements around the start of European hours and immediately after the release of major indices can be volatile and deceptive movements should be noted.

Timing of inflation-related indicators, business confidence indicators and key figures in the eurozone and the US are likely to be short-term triggers.

override condition

If one end is tested repeatedly and the rebound weakens and the range becomes unbalanced, the assumption is revised.

A review of the policy is also necessary when sudden news causes a significant increase in volatility and the price settles outside the range all at once.

If the transition does not push back after crossing a key technical milestone and takes time to settle, the range assumption tactic is less likely to work

As well as short-term indicators, events that raise awareness of a change in the medium- to long-term outlook can also be a disabling factor.

risk event

Eurozone inflation indicators, business confidence surveys and monetary policy-related announcements.

Statements relating to US employment and consumption-related indicators and monetary policy stance.

General news that significantly changes risk appetite, such as geopolitical risks or sudden changes in stock markets

Sudden headlines that appear at a time of day when liquidity is likely to be low can also be a source of volatility.

position management

Position sizes are reduced from normal before and after the event to give more room for unexpected blurring

Profit-taking is divided at each milestone in the range and adjusted so as not to hold too much unrealised profit at once.

Clear criteria for loss-cutting are placed outside the range, and a stance is maintained to execute without hesitation when the conditions are met.

The overall risk amount is managed based on account balances and positions in other currencies to ensure that the bias is not too strong.

checklist

Check interest rate trends and changes in spreads between the euro area and the US.

Check price movements and volume near the previous day's highs and lows and the upper and lower bounds of the range.

Check the calendar of economic indicators and scheduled statements by key figures and recheck positions before and after events.

Market summary

Although there was a phase of selling on the previous day, the market subsequently closed lower, and the situation is now in a state of awareness of a tentative return to the market.

With UK growth indicators and housing-related data on the horizon, the ground continues to be carefully watched for economic slowdown and the future of monetary policy.

In the US, too, there is a high focus on price indicators, and the line-up of materials in both the pound and the dollar makes it difficult to find a sense of direction.

In the short term, the situation is a mix of strength on the return and heaviness on the upside, with a tendency to lean in either direction.

Assumed range

Today, we should expect a swing around the 1.30s on the lower side and up to around 1.32 on the upper side.

Given the previous day's swing, the price range is likely to be difficult to plunge either up or down.

A temporary overshoot may occur depending on the outcome of UK indicators.

The price range is likely to change between European and New York hours ahead of the US price-related event.

tactics

The basic policy is to assume a range rotation, and to pass on once extreme stretches either up or down.

It is easy to take short-term sell rotation in heavy return situations and light buy rotation in pushback situations.

It is safe to operate not to pursue positions too deeply when the movement back to the central zone continues.

Limit new entries during the time of material announcements and give priority to confirming clear price movements.

trigger

One guide is a break above the level of the UK growth indicator, which showed clear strength and weakness in the European hour.

On the downside, the short-term decision is whether the previous day's downside phase will be broken again.

When US price indicators show unexpected blips, a switch in direction is likely to occur.

The short-term decision should incorporate whether the initial strength or weakness immediately after the indicator continues.

override condition

The range assumption is likely to be broken if there is a sustained one-way movement significantly away from the assumed central band.

If the results of the UK indicators are substantially unexpected, opening up a quick margin of return or downward pressure.

When a volume pattern appears that continues to cut higher or lower after a US price index.

The timing at which short-term return or push-buying has ceased to work at all.

risk event

Publication of UK growth indicators and housing-related data.

US price-related indicators and employment-related data.

Short-term fluctuations associated with interest rate developments in the US and Europe and statements by key figures.

Sudden price movements during hours when market liquidity is thin.

position management

The size should be more modest than usual and should be reduced in stages before and after the index.

Take profits early when approaching the central zone and avoid going too deep.

Losses should be taken without hesitation outside the expected range, while factoring in short-term ups and downs.

Do not take several directions at the same time, but focus on one axis of decision-making.

checklist

Which way the initial reaction after the UK index tilted.

Which is more likely to prevail: the return trend or the upward pressure?

Is the price range expanding rapidly before and after the US index?

Market summary

Following the previous day's slight rally, today's better-than-expected Australian employment report has seen the Australian dollar strengthen slightly against the US dollar.

The decline in the unemployment rate and the strong increase in the number of people in employment are likely to raise awareness of the view that the RBA will maintain a tighter stance in the near term.

The AUDUSD is currently in the recent return high zone, and while the index will test the upward direction, it is also prone to return selling at the upper end of the range due to a sense of a milestone.

Assumed range

Today, the basic scenario is for the pair to explore up and down in the range around 0.6500-0.6600, keeping in mind the lows made in Asian time and the highs after the indicator.

If the buying momentum from the Australian index continues, the pair is likely to test the upper end of the range, while a temporary swing below 0.6500 should also be noted depending on the outcome of the US index.

tactics

The current situation is based on buying at the pushpoints while checking where the post-index push will stop, and trying to enter the market in stages rather than unnecessarily chasing higher prices.

In the short term, we will prioritise profit-taking before the milestone, while assuming a stance of picking up shallow pushes as long as the underlying strength is maintained on the back of employment improvement.

On the other hand, if the US dollar side changes its tone, there is a possibility of a switch back to a sell-back-dominant environment, so it is important not to stick to a fixed sense of direction.

trigger

On the upside, the decision to continue to push back will be based on whether the highs can be clearly established above the post-index highs, and the shallowness of the push back after the break should be confirmed.

On the downside, a clear break below a potential push near 0.6500 and a weak return would be taken as a signal to hold the upside line for a while.

The time of day to watch for price movements is early Europe after Australian flows have run their course, and before and after the release of US employment-related and US inflation-related indicators.

override condition

If the buying on the back of the Australian jobs report stalls, and the daily close is significantly below 0.6500, the scenario based on the push-back assumption will be considered a setback.

Also, if the market continues to move higher while failing to break higher after the index, we would consider switching to a cautious stance as a sign that short-term upside potential is limited.

If the US dollar appreciates more than expected and similar movements against the dollar spread to other major currencies besides the Australian dollar, we would judge that the market has changed to a dollar-driven market rather than individual materials.

risk event

The biggest focus will be on the process of market penetration of the assessment of today's Australian jobs report, and the tone of the subsequent Australian-related indicators and RBA key figures' statements.

There is a risk that the overall direction of the dollar may change through the strength or weakness of interest rate cut speculation, as US employment-related and inflation indicators are forthcoming overseas.

In addition, we should also keep an eye on developments in Chinese economic indicators and stock markets, which could affect the degree of risk appetite and thus the positioning of the Australian dollar as a resource-based currency.

position management

It is safe to imagine that new positions should be entered with a slightly smaller size than usual, and additional positions should be cautiously built up until the post-Australian jobs report volatility subsides.

For profit-taking, it is easier to manage risk by settling in instalments before the milestone, and once back in the middle of the expected range, lighten the risk.

It is advisable to mechanically execute a stop-loss policy at levels that are clearly below a potential push point or when turbulence after an event is deemed to have strengthened momentum in the opposite direction to the scenario.

checklist

Did you see the highs after the Australian jobs report and how shallow the subsequent push was and how it was accompanied by volume?

Are you watching for an attack around 0.6500 and the movement of the dollar index before and after the release of the US index?

position size and stop-loss levels are set in line with the expected range and volatility of the day

review

Against the backdrop of US interest rate developments, the market was volatile, with buyers and sellers buying and selling at different times of the day, and then bouncing back to the downside with buying at the end of the day.

summary

The market as a whole took a wait-and-see attitude during the Tokyo hours, with small movements in the higher price range continuing.

After the entry of the Europeans, dollar sales increased due to sluggish growth in US interest rates, and there was a temporary awareness of downward pressure.

Selling continued in the New York time, but gradually buying back in, and overall the market remained in a range.

Today's price movements

The price trend remained directionless in the early part of the day, despite maintaining a high price range

In European hours, dollar sales were preceded by a reaction to interest rate trends, and the price range was gradually reduced, interspersed with some pushback.

Selling again dominated in the New York hours, but buying returned towards the end of the day, recovering some of the downward pressure.

Background and materials

Sluggish growth in long-term US interest rates was perceived as a factor in selling the dollar, with changes in interest rates directly linked to price movements at different times of the day.

No significant change in the policy stance on the Japanese side was observed, and the direction of the exchange rate was led by external factors.

The overall market remained a mixture of risk appetite and adjustment, with limited buying of the yen as a safe currency.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market continued to hold at high levels, with a composition of heavy upside and strong pushes.

The market continued to have a fine back-and-forth pattern, with many reactions around short-term moving averages.

Reactions to interest rates were quick and short-term trend formation was susceptible to intermittent price movements.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market continued to hold a high level and it remained difficult to find a clear direction.

Longer dwellings around key milestones, and awareness of the ground that energy is likely to build up both up and down.

Interest rates and events were more sensitive to interest rates and events, and the trend was mainly in a range rather than a continuation of the trend

impression

High reliance on interest rate materials and differential reactions at different times of the day complicated price movements

The jostling between return selling and push-buying continued, giving the impression that price management is important in short-term trading.

Although there was some buying back towards the end of the day, overall the day was largely unbiased.

trade observations

The flow of the market changed easily from one time period to the next, and there were many phases where it was easy to get swept away in a follow-up trade.

The strategy of carefully picking up pushes and returns was effective, and it was important to be aware of the importance of building up a fine, reliable pile rather than aiming for an excessive price range.

Reactions around the milestone had to be carefully assessed, and the accuracy of entry and exit was tested

checklist

Have we identified the market reaction to interest rate developments?

Have you checked the behaviour of prices around the milestone?

Were you prepared for the change in flow at different times of the day?

review

A day of dollar selling dominated by a pause in the rise in US interest rates, with the euro moving lower.

summary

After the entry of the Europeans, the euro remained resilient as the US dollar returned to the market against the backdrop of US interest rate developments.

Dollar selling continues to adjust through to New York, while the euro continues to be easily pushed out of the market.

Overall, the trend was limited in terms of direction, but the downward trend was slightly less uncertain.

Short-term reactions to materials were fast, and price movements reflected changes in liquidity at different times of the day.

Today's price movements

The market was struggling in the early part of the session after a round of selling back, with the euro picking up moderately in European hours.

Dollar buying back slow after the start of the New York session, with the euro consolidating slightly higher on the downside.

Although the daily price range was calm, it was easy to buy on the downside

Overall, mainly a stable range transition while digesting materials.

Background and materials

The US interest rate adjustment has caused a pause in the dollar-buying trend, making it easier for funds to turn to the euro.

US economic indicators, including employment-related indicators, were mixed, and market interest rate expectations continued to be shaken.

Eurozone business confidence has not changed significantly, but acts as a short-term supportive factor

Political events and monetary policy-related statements were limited, and markets reacted by being selective about material

Technical memorandum (short term)

The structure of lower prices is maintained in the short term, making it easier to buy on the downside.

The low zone in the European hour was perceived as near-term support, contributing to the rebound in the New York hour.

On the upside, the area around the previous day's return highs is in mind, and a material boost is needed to break through.

The short-term trend line is moderately upwards and remains stable with limited momentum

Technical note (mid-term).

The medium-term situation continues to be a back-and-forth holding, and the direction is difficult to define.

The market structure is likely to continue to be a mixture of pushing and returning sales as the market continues to attack and defend around the moving averages.

A slowdown in reaction is seen in the medium-term resistance zone, with real demand trading restricting price movements.

The market is in a wide range, and can easily swing up or down depending on the material.

impression

Short-term price movements were settling down and excessive reactions to the material appeared to be limited

Sensitivity to interest rates and indicators remains high and lack of direction indicates market participants' cautious attitude

Trend formation was not rushed, and trading continued to confirm the reaction at each milestone

trade observations

A certain willingness to buy was seen at the pushpoints, giving the impression that there were occasions when it was easy to participate in the short term.

Heavy upward pressure was undeniable, and there were many occasions when careful profit-taking and position management were required.

Overall, it was range-centred and we had to carefully pick up on the occasions when there was a movement.

checklist

Confirmation of the direction of US interest rates and Eurozone indicators.

Check price movements in European hours and how the low price zone is treated.

Position within the medium-term range and the reaction of the resistance zone.

review

A day of buying back from the downside following weak UK indicators, and a day of downside against the US dollar.

summary

UK growth indicators weighed on the market in the early stages, with a sense of upward pressure until the start of the European session.

The dollar's return has slowed as US interest rates have settled, and the pound has gradually consolidated to the downside

In New York, the balance between currencies has been sorted out and the environment has become more conducive to buying back in.

Overall, the recovery has been a digestion of the weakness, with extreme swings limited.

Today's price movements

Asian hours continued to see small movements in a narrow range, with a cautious attitude continuing the previous day's trend

European hours saw a further downward push in reaction to weak domestic indicators, but this did not lead to excessive selling, and the market was gradually bought back.

The pound was bought against the backdrop of a returning US dollar as US interest rates settled into New York.

The price returned to a calm price trend in the final stages, with a slight easing of downside fears.

Background and materials

Latest UK indicators show slow growth, initially weighing on the pound

On the other hand, the calm in US interest rates eased the momentum of dollar buying, which was a supportive factor for the pound.

Sudden material was limited in both Europe and the US, and the focus was on confirming the continuation of existing themes.

Markets maintained a cautious view of the risk environment and maintained a stance of not leaning towards excessive flows.

Technical memorandum (short term)

After a downward push on entering Europe, the market remained in a short-term support zone, confirming a willingness to buy at the push point.

In New York, a test of the most recent resistance zone was initiated and the return trend widened slightly.

Short-term price ranges were relatively subdued, with price movements mainly based on the equilibrium between supply and demand.

The market continued to hold around the short-term line at the end of the day and did not show any rapid growth.

Technical note (mid-term).

Medium-term perspective remains directionless and remains within a wide range

While the downside is conscious at a certain level, the upside is also unable to break clear and the holding trend continues.

The impression remains that the medium-term ground is not stable, as it is easily reactive to domestic and international materials.

Additional material was needed for trend formation and decisions had to be made with caution

impression

The pound was consolidating lower, despite weak indicators, and seemed to settle down throughout the day.

However, in the medium term, there continues to be a lack of material and it remains difficult to read the direction of the market.

The price movements themselves were within a relatively organised range, with the market avoiding any undue following.

It appears to have been a day of carefully checking material without leaning towards excessive flows.

trade observations

There was a selling trend in the early stages of the market, and it was a phase where you should refrain from making unreasonable entries.

After a downward push in the European hours, there were certain buying opportunities, but the environment was also prone to short-term profit-taking.

The return of New York required careful position management and was unlikely to face excessive chasing.

Focusing on movements within the range and adjusting stance flexibly was effective

checklist

Have short-term support zones been secured?

Is the calm in US interest rates continuing?

Is the buy-back trend continuing?

review

Despite early buying, the market returned to a strong sell-off from mid-Europe, and the gains were almost completely erased by New York.

summary

Strong Australian employment-related activity and risk appetite supported early buying, but the trend reversed from mid-Europe.

Strong reactions to US interest rate developments, with amplitude in the process of swinging back from selling dollars to buying dollars.

Return pressure continued in New York, with the day marked by a drop back from the intraday highs.

Today's price movements

From Tokyo to early Europe, the market was dominated by buyers and slowly picked up.

After the entry of the Europeans, dollar sales strengthened as US interest rates paused in their rise, and the dollar tested the highs once more.

Selling turned to the upside from mid-Europe, with price movements almost cancelling out the early gains into New York.

Background and materials

Australian employment figures showed overall resilience, leading to early Australian dollar buying.

Global risk appetite continues, and was perceived as a factor in pushing up the Australian dollar.

While the narrowing of the rise in US interest rates led to dollar selling at times, the subsequent swing back to the upside was also seen at times.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Short-term lines provided support during the early upswing, and it was easy to pick up the push.

Strong pressure for a return to the market from mid-Europe onwards, making it impossible to sustain the short-term upward trend.

In the New York time, the decline from the intraday highs continued and the upper end of the short-term range was noticeably heavier.

Technical note (mid-term).

The medium-term trend continues to be within a certain range, with ups and downs.

There is room to test the upside due to Australian indices and risk appetite, but this is often held back by US interest rate trends.

The upper side of the medium-term range remains a resistance zone and direction remains difficult to determine.

impression

The impression of the day was very different, with a straightforward reaction to the material in the early part of the day and a reactionary fall from mid-European onwards.

There were some signs of an Australian dollar buying trend, but the issue is that the trend is easily influenced by US interest rates and can easily change.

There were many amplitudes that were difficult to follow in the short term, and the impression was that unreasonable entry accuracy was required.

trade observations

The early push was easy to pick up, but the switch to selling dominance from mid-Europe needed to be captured earlier

Returns were likely to overlap into the New York hours, and price action needed to be carefully judged.

There were many periods of inconsistent price movements, and it was important to attract and manage positions

checklist

Are we being too sensitive to changes in US interest rate trends?

Do you know in advance the upper and lower limits of the medium-term range?

Are the criteria for return and push-buying clear?