Market summary

The previous day saw a continued test of the upside, but the upside was heavy and sluggish near last week's highs.

The market fell sharply during the New York hour in response to weekly employment-related data, but later closed lower on a buying spree.

Today, the finance minister's comments triggered dollar buying in the Tokyo time and the dollar is slightly above the previous day's highs.

This is the phase to see how far the upward momentum can continue, while remaining aware of the authorities' checks and balances.

Assumed range

Around 154.0 - expect price movements around 155.0

In the short term, the image is for a return to the market before the 155s, with a lower price in the low 154s.

Volatility is calming down and nervousness is likely to remain on intervention alert.

tactics

The basic policy is to buy at the push with an eye to the upside

A cautious approach is advisable, waiting for confirmation of a rebound from the first half of 154 before entering the market.

Priority will be given to follow-up short-term trading, while checking the statements of the authorities and interest rate developments in overseas time.

trigger

A clear break above 155.0 would trigger a buyers' stop.

On the other hand, a break below 154.0 is an easy sign of an extended adjustment and is a warning point for the lower end of the range.

This could be triggered by the release of indicators in the London time or by key figures in the early morning in the US.

override condition

A clear break below 154.0 and a firm close would invalidate the push-buy strategy

A break below the uptrend line may also cause a lull in momentum

If interest rates fall and stock prices soften at the same time, the dominant composition of the dollar may be broken

risk event

Timing of key US officials' statements, interest rate trends and economic indicators.

Statements and observational reports on foreign exchange intervention on the Japanese side.

Instantaneous price movements due to changes in market liquidity in European time

position management

Position size should be about half the normal size

Profit-taking is done in stages around the upper resistance zone to reduce risk in the event of sudden changes.

Losses will be dealt with when a clear change of direction is confirmed, based on a break below 154.

checklist

Check from time to time for statements by the authorities and intervention-related headlines

Observe the impact of movements in US interest rates and stock futures on the dollar-yen.

Watch for maintenance of short-term trend lines and attack on upper range boundaries.

Market summary

The previous day, the weekly employment report led to a sell-off in the dollar and the eurodollar moved above last week's highs.

Delays in the release of US data and continued expectations of interest rate cuts, while Eurozone growth concerns continue to limit upside.

Currently, there is a strong sense of a lull after the rise, and the market is searching for a sense of direction, interspersed with short-term adjustments.

Dollar softness is being felt across all major currencies, but the wait for material continues.

Assumed range

Assumption of a holding around 1.1550-1.1620.

The upside is likely to be determined by last week's high level, while the downside is likely to be determined by the presence or absence of push-back demand

Temporary amplification of the swing is possible depending on liquidity in the New York time.

tactics

Basic stance is predominantly push-buy

Consider short-term buybacks after confirming upward momentum.

Maintain a light position during sharp changes in preparation for a one-way break

trigger

Possible renewed buying pressure above 1.1600.

Short-term sources are likely to sell off their hands at a level below 1.1560

Price movements in the early part of the European hour make it easier to see the direction.

override condition

A clear break below 1.1540 is likely to negate the upside scenario.

Momentum also slows if the closing price cannot hold 1.1600

Assumption of range reversion if downward pressure continues

risk event

Reports of progress related to the US government shutdown and the reopening of data.

Statements by US Fed officials and revised policy outlook

Eurozone macro-statistics and ECB-related comments.

position management

Transaction size based on half the normal size.

The interest rate should be around 1.1610-1.1620.

Losses are managed with one criterion below 1.1540.

checklist

Check the reaction of the dollar to the resumption of US statistics and statements by key figures.

Price movements in the European hour to determine whether a push is forming or not.

Beware of sudden fluctuations due to position bias and reduced liquidity.

Market summary

UK employment figures showed a temporary sell-off in the pound as the unemployment rate worsened, but the dollar subsequently softened and regained some of the fall as a result of US employment-related indicators.

The market lacks direction as it remains within a range both above and below.

In the short term, we are waiting for material and are at the stage of assessing the next indicators and key figures' statements.

Assumed range

Assumed range centred around the 1.3100-1.3200 area.

The downside is in the low range before the jobs report, while the upside is around last week's return highs.

Beware of movements during thin trading hours for sudden breakthroughs.

tactics

Basic policy of range rotation as it is difficult to see a clear trend

In the short term, there is room to consider pushing back to the downside

Another option is to wait until the price movement is confirmed in the European hour and then wait for a sense of direction.

trigger

Watch for a buy-back trend on a break above 1.3200.

Short-term sell-back may intensify below 1.3100

Indicator releases are scheduled for tomorrow, with UK GDP and US CPI in mind, and a phase of position consolidation.

override condition

If a clear break below 1.3050, the upside scenario recedes.

Tactical review in case of extreme volume declines due to material difficulties before the index.

If lack of direction is prolonged, respond with a lighter position.

risk event

UK GDP (Sept) and US CPI (Oct) on 13 November

In the event of sudden reports of statements by key figures or reports related to UK public finances.

Dollar-driven price movements due to changes in US Treasury yields

position management

Moderate lot sizes for trading within a range.

The profit stop is just before the upper limit of the short-term range, and the loss stop is an immediate withdrawal at a break below support.

Thoroughly reduce open interest and limit risk before the index.

checklist

Reconfirm the schedule of economic indicators for the UK and the US.

Observe price movements and volume increases and decreases during European hours.

Check for line breaks that indicate a trend change.

Market summary

The previous day, the market oscillated up and down but remained in a range, with little sense of direction.

On the Australian side, resource prices have continued to weaken, while on the US side, the dollar has been restrained by the prospect of delayed index releases.

Overall, amidst material difficulties, the ground is likely to be conscious of a holding pattern with no price range.

Assumed range

Assuming a price movement of around 0.6500-0.6560.

Range may remain directionless due to the risk of postponement of US indicators and resource prices

tactics

Basic trading stance is based on range rotation.

Consider selling back in the upper resistance zone and short-term push-back near lower support.

Priority is given to small-scale targeting until a major trend occurs.

trigger

A break above 0.6560 could accelerate short-term buyback.

Room for renewed selling pressure if a clear break below 0.6500

Beware of the possibility that statements by key US officials and reports of US CPI postponements could shake the market.

override condition

If the downside support is broken below 0.6480, the premise of the range strategy is lost.

Conversely, if the pair breaks above 0.6580, the direction will change and a decision to return will be made to withdraw.

risk event

Delayed release of US Oct CPI expected.

China's iron ore supply and demand and business confidence indicators.

Speculation on RBA officials' statements and minutes

position management

Position sizes should be modest and prepared for sudden news.

Take profits frequently in the middle of the range and stop-losses outside support and resistance.

Policy of not dragging positions in preparation for the concentration of indicators in the second half of the week.

checklist

Check for US index postponements and the reaction of the dollar index.

Check out trends in iron ore prices and China-related stocks.

Reconfirmation of the schedule of statements by RBA officials

review

The yen was sold predominantly from Tokyo and continued to sell in Europe, and after an adjustment in New York, the yen narrowed to a lower level and closed at a higher level.

summary

The yen's selling trend prevails during the day, and the time frame for testing the upside continues with the participation of foreign forces.

In New York, the market was temporarily pushed back due to heavy profit-taking, but the return was limited and the downside price appears solid.

Buying returned towards the end of the day and the market closed higher overall.

Today's price movements

Strong yen selling flow in Tokyo, with the situation remaining calm despite awareness of the milestone.

The direction of the market remained largely unchanged in the European hour, with uninterrupted buying supporting the market.

The market was adjusted down in the early part of the New York session, but has since been lifted by buying back up.

Background and materials

Domestically, the environment remains prudent for monetary policy to weigh on the yen.

Overseas, mixed speculation over the monetary policy outlook, but risk appetite supporting the US dollar at times.

Flow-driven movements are evident across the market, with hourly adjustments and buy-backs being the theme.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the downside is shallow, even in pushing situations, and the shape of the market is likely to be conscious of the depth of the buyers.

More small feet of substance, swinging up and down but with a gradual upward impression of direction.

Push-backs are likely to occur around the short-term line, making it difficult to confirm a turn in the flow.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the situation remains stagnant at high prices and remains above the support band

A shape that keeps the range of holding, but is likely to be conscious of a lower price.

Main levels have been maintained and there does not appear to be a significant breakdown in direction over a longer time horizon.

impression

Impressive calm development with flow-driven upward test and absorption of adjustments.

A day in which movements continued to follow supply and demand rather than one-off news items, with differences between time zones being more pronounced.

There were some uneven price movements, but overall there were many occasions when there were no major fluctuations.

trade observations

Shallow push and a phase where shapes that pick up short term reversals are more likely to function.

Buying back quickly after the New York adjustment, and some times of the day remain difficult to discern.

Overall, it was difficult to see a clear turning point, and the impression was that decisions had to be made in line with the flow of events.

checklist

Check for changes in flow at different times of the day.

Compare depth of push and return.

Reaffirm the location of key levels.

review

Tokyo and Europe were mainly characterized by a slight back-and-forth, while in New York, dollar selling was slightly more prevalent, but the upside was heavy and lacked a sense of direction.

summary

The early stages of the game were characterized by a wait-for-materials attitude, with both euro buying and dollar selling remaining inconclusive.

The euro was temporarily supported in New York, but the return of the euro was felt at the milestone level

Overall, the market continued to move in small movements within a range, with limited short-term direction.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours continued the previous day's trend, with quiet price movements and continued to be difficult to swing up and down.

European hours were dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting indicators and statements, and both upside and downside reactions were sluggish.

Dollar sales were slightly ahead in New York, but the euro's return was limited and stalled near the upper end of the range.

Background and materials

Awareness of slightly softer US employment-related indicators was a factor in restraining the dollar's upward movement.

On the other hand, eurozone indicators lacked improvement momentum, which did not lead to positive buying interest in the euro.

Relative material weakness meant that the power relations between currencies were unclear and the overall cautious trading stance remained

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, selling was likely to occur near the upper end of the range, and it was difficult for momentum to continue in the short return phase.

Lower prices were more likely to stop once at shallow pushes and were mainly short-term traffic rather than directional.

Trading was mixed around short-term moving averages and did not lead to a straightforward break

Technical note (mid-term).

The medium-term trend is holding and prices continue to move within a certain range.

The trend direction was not clear-cut and a balanced shape was maintained, with little bias to either side of the trend.

Trading tends to clash at medium-term milestone levels and there is a lack of directional material

impression

The impression was that materials for both the dollar and the euro were weak, with long periods of relative strength and weakness difficult to find.

Markets were keen to look for the next clue, and signs of waiting for indicators and events were prevalent throughout the trading day.

The price range itself remained calm, but the trend continued to be unbalanced up and down, making it difficult to make decisions at many points.

trade observations

Returns and push-buys were all likely to stop shallow, making it difficult to increase margins.

Short-term reverse stocking was a constant opportunity, but lacked continuity and required careful profit-taking.

A day with a lot of attacks and defences at milestones, where advance price management was important.

checklist

Balance of material strengths and weaknesses

Upper and lower range reactions

Waiting for next indicator or event

review

After falling on weak UK employment figures, the dollar softened in New York, reversing the decline on the day.

summary

Selling of the pound was dominated in the early stages by UK employment-related data, but the flow switched on the US side of the story.

Political and fiscal uncertainties restrained the upside, while US interest rate expectations acted as a support, limiting the direction of the market.

Although there were swings throughout the day, the situation remained range-bound and reactions to material were only short-lived.

Today's price movements

Early on, it moved downwards in response to the UK index, stopping once near the milestone.

European hours continued to be heavy on the upside while testing the return, and it was difficult to get a clear sense of direction.

In New York, the US dollar softened in response to US employment-related data, leading to widespread recovery of much of the decline.

Background and materials

UK employment indicators showed worsening unemployment-related conditions, raising awareness of economic weakness.

There were reports of instability on the political front in the UK, and the financial outlook remained cautious.

In the US, employment-related data showed a slowdown and a slight loosening of interest rate expectations softened the dollar, shifting the balance of the market.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, downward pressure prevailed at times, and price movements around the milestone were noted.

However, there was a sense of room for a rebound towards the New York time, and a return test was seen.

There was limited sense of direction, with awareness of the short-term range up and down.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market remained range-bound and the focus was on attacking and defending around key milestones.

A mix of UK and US material continued to prevent trend formation.

The medium-term direction of the market remained volatile, depending on the material, and the balance remained unstable.

impression

It was a typically material-driven day, with push-backs alternating between push-downs due to UK material and push-backs due to material on the US side.

There is an impression that the US interest rate observation prevented an excessive fall, while the cautious stance over politics and finances restrained the market's upward movement.

Ultimately, the market settled within the short-term traffic range and continued to lack a sense of direction.

trade observations

There were many occasions when the reaction at short-term milestones was confirmed, while calmly judging the momentum of the decline phase and the strength of the rebound phase.

It was a day of fast reactions to material, so it was necessary to avoid following the market unreasonably and to check the shape of the returns and pushes.

In a range-bound environment, aiming points were limited and foregoing was an option.

checklist

Have you clearly identified the top and bottom of the short-term range?

Were you prepared for sudden changes due to indicators and political reports?

Avoided unreasonable follow-up and only considered forms of dominance or

summary

The impression was underpinned by the calming down of Australia-related indicators and the receding of excessive caution, including in the external environment.

Overall, the upward trend was maintained throughout the day as the push was shallow and buying was likely to continue in all time zones.

While short-term directionality was limited, a structure was seen where a sense of stability was easily perceived.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the market started to buy back in the early hours and started with a gentle rise, continuing the previous day's trend.

The previous day's highs were exceeded towards the beginning of Europe, and the buying interest remains, despite a brief adjustment.

In New York, the upward test was made again, and the trend continued to hold the highs in a short swing

Background and materials

Supported by calmer Australian-related indicators and a slight retreat from short-term uncertainty.

Excessive risk aversion has receded on the US side, and the overall day is likely to be marked by a more risk-friendly trend.

Volatility in resources, interest rates and external markets was limited and there was a dearth of new material to disturb the direction.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Selling is likely to continue to rise in the short timeframe, but selling is likely to be seen waiting for a return near the milestone.

The push was shallow and the underlying tone stabilised early and midway through the day, supported by the vicinity of short-term moving averages.

Momentum slowing at the highs, but limited selling pressure to the extent that it could lead to a downward collapse.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, no major trend changes have been observed, and the situation is a search for direction within a certain range.

A mix of return selling and push-buying around the milestone, with the price range gradually narrowing as it holds together.

Medium-term moving averages are flat and a clear break would require the emergence of additional material.

impression

Overall, the swings were small, with each session showing a buy-dominant but still cautious attitude.

Markets remain calm and respectful of short-term trends, while being aware of the lack of material

Despite the lack of direction, buyers' persistence was evident in the form of maintaining high prices.

trade observations

The impression was that there were repeated rebounds at shallow pushes, making it easier for short-term push-push targeting to work.

Price movements are slow around milestones, and stress can easily build up in follow-up entries.

The overall adjustment range was limited, so the operation was suited to early profit-taking.

checklist

Is the trend to stay in the high price range continuing?

Has the depth of the push changed?

Are there any new materials in the external environment?