Market summary

Conscious of the possibility of reduced liquidity due to the US holiday today, the USD/JPY has been bought in Tokyo hours and is again approaching last week's highs.

On the previous day, buying continued from Tokyo to European hours, and although it was sluggish in the US hours, the market closed at a higher level.

On the material side, the mood of restraint is becoming more cautious as the US indexes are about to hit a plateau, and the market is cautious about a clear trend developing.

Assumed range

Lower limit = around 153.50-154.00 / Upper limit = around 154.50-155.00.

tactics

The main focus will be on range rotation, but also on push-buying. If there is no clear move above the highs, consider selling back near the upper limit.

trigger

Above: a clear move above 154.50 / Time zone: focus on the morning of Tokyo time - early European time.

Downwards: a move below 153.50.

override condition

With a clear break & pullback above or below the expected range. Sustained development, especially above 155.00 or below 153.00.

risk event

Sudden volatility due to liquidity constraints caused by advance release of US indices, sudden policy statements and public holidays.

position management

Keep the size to 70-80% of the normal position/ Set the profit target at a rebound near the upper or lower limit/ Set the stop-loss outside the expected range (e.g. below the lower limit if above, above the upper limit if below).

checklist

First check whether the dollar is moving within the expected range.

Aware of the impact of reduced liquidity (thin trading and the appearance of whiskers).

Monitor by time of day for any changes due to indicator releases or policy statements.

Market summary

The previous day saw a lack of buying momentum in the euro, while the US dollar also moved in a small, directionless manner.

Eurozone business confidence indicators showed improvement, but trading was limited due to a wait-and-see attitude towards US interest rates

Market participants are expected to decrease today due to the US holiday, and quiet price movements are expected, mainly due to short-term muscle adjustments.

Assumed range

The range is expected to remain centred on the upper 1.14-1.16 range.

A phase where sudden ups and downs should be kept in mind in view of reduced liquidity.

tactics

Until a clear direction emerges, range rotation is the basis for a cautious response, with priority given to short-term return sales.

Consider aiming for a rebound when support is approaching, but avoid excessive following.

trigger

A clear break above the 1.16 level in the European hour would test the shift to a buy-back trend.

Conversely, note that a break below the 1.14 level increases the risk of an extended adjustment.

override condition

If the upside resistance cannot be breached and the return pressure strengthens again, the upside scenario is temporarily withdrawn.

Conversely, if the price does not fall below the lower level and remains stable, the downside scenario is reviewed

risk event

Release of German business confidence indicators and Eurozone-related data.

Decreased liquidity and sudden price movements due to US holidays

position management

Trading volume is kept at about half the normal level, with a wider stop loss in the event of sudden price movements.

Ensure that gains are short-term in nature and keep positions light before major indices.

checklist

Check for a sense of direction at the beginning of the European hour.

Observe price and volume changes following the release of Eurozone data

Be wary of one-way swings due to thin trading during the US holiday

Market summary

The previous day saw a series of upward tests but a rebound continued, leaving the market with a heavy upward pressure.

The US is closed today for a public holiday and the bond market is closed, and liquidity is likely to be lower in New York time.

Markets remain cautious ahead of UK labour market statistics, as they probe the future of interest rate cuts.

An environment where it is difficult to get a sense of direction and price movements are limited, but caution is needed to test the downward direction.

Assumed range

Assumed around 1.305-1.323

1.30 is considered a psychological milestone, while above it is a zone of easy return at the 1.32 level.

Overall, the trend to explore the lower end of the range is likely to prevail.

tactics

Mainly return sales, consider shorting at the upper resistance zone

Allow a margin for limit prices due to the possibility of spread widening due to reduced liquidity

Policy of limiting price range in short-term trading and avoiding pre-event position increases.

trigger

Downward test may accelerate below 1.310

Weak UK employment figures are likely to strengthen the downward bias

Conversely, room for temporary pound buy-back in case of an upward swing

override condition

A break above 1.323 would put a halt to the return scenario.

Revise downside scenario if the employment data is stable at 1.32 after the jobs report.

Priority to liquidate positions if high prices continue in the short term.

risk event

UK labour market statistics (wages and unemployment)

Reduced liquidity due to US public holidays

Sudden fluctuations due to statements and indicators in European time

position management

Trade size should be 50-70% of normal

Profit taking should be set earlier before the lower band and stop-losses should be executed above 1.323.

Lighten open interest before the index and consider re-entering after confirming the result.

checklist

Immediate confirmation of UK employment figures on wage trends and unemployment rates.

Reduced positions due to reduced liquidity due to US market closures.

Assess changes in the short-term trend, with a focus on the 1.31 attack.

Market summary

The previous day, a speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Australia was supportive of the Australian dollar, with the implication that the Bank will "maintain tighter monetary conditions in order to return to inflation targeting".

Australian consumer confidence picks up in November, with sentiment weighing back slightly.

Liquidity is likely to be thin today as the US bond market is closed, and the market is expected to be directionless during the day.

Likely to come and go within the previous day's high and low, with a break depending on the headlines.

Assumed range

Main scenario around 0.6480-0.6560, with a possible firmer area around 0.65.

Beware of momentary excesses derived from thin trading, and avoid edge price chasing.

Reassessing the slope of the range with price movements after the entry of Londoners.

tactics

Based on range rotation, new around the centre is foregone, aiming for edge-to-centre regression.

Ensure that when a headline occurs, wait for a cushion rather than following the initial response.

Limit prices are split shallowly and risk adjusted quickly to the vicinity of the open price after execution.

trigger

The upside level is above the previous day's high and the initial European high.

The downside level is below the previous day's low and the Tokyo morning low.

Time of day: focus on volume in early London and around FIX.

Material fluctuates with RBA-related headlines, Chinese sentiment and advance reports on US indicators.

override condition

A series of unidirectional major yin-yang lines, with prolonged stagnation at the upper or lower levels.

Slow response to return sales and push-backs, and minimal push-backs after a break

Volume collapses in the assumed central zone and the pin bar remains unsuccessful

risk event

Speculative changes due to additional reports and reinterpretation of the abstract of the RBA Deputy Governor's speech.

Headlines related to the follow-up report on Australian November consumer confidence and business confidence.

Thinning of the board and widening spreads due to the US bond holiday, as well as speculation about US inflation indicators later in the week.

position management

Start with less than half the normal size and factor in the risk of slipping based on the thinness of the board.

Interest rates are set in shorter steps and some are mechanically secured with a central band regression.

Losses are placed tightly on the outside of the most recent whiskers, pausing at successive hits.

checklist

Check for additional RBA-related headlines and key figures' statements

Inspection of continuing Australian sentiment-based reports and market interpretation gaps.

Monitor time periods of reduced liquidity and spread widening due to US bond holidays

review

The day saw a test of the upside from Tokyo to Europe, but a lull in the gains was seen at the highs as a return to the highs was perceived.

summary

The dollar swung up and down against the backdrop of the results of US interest rate and employment-related indicators.

Dollar sales strengthened in the early part of the New York session, but settled down towards the end of the day as buyers returned to the market.

Directionality was limited and there was a strong adjustment tone ahead of the milestone.

Today's price movements

Firm in Tokyo hours, rising moderately through European hours.

Temporary downward pressure in NY hours following weekly US employment-related indicators

There was then a buy-back, with only minor fluctuations from the previous day at the end of the day.

Background and materials

Mixed results from US economic indicators make it difficult to determine the direction of interest rates

On the Japanese side, the yen remained on a selling ground as the prospect of a change in monetary policy receded.

Overall risk appetite remained, but short-term profit-taking was also noticeable.

Technical memorandum (short term)

On a daily basis, the price continues to hold at a high level.

Located above the moving averages, but aware of the upside potential.

Focus is on whether short-term support can be maintained.

Technical note (mid-term).

Medium-term uptrend trend is maintained, but momentum has slowed slightly

Momentum needed for higher prices, awaiting next material

The price is consolidating on the downside and signs of a change in direction are limited.

impression

Reactions to US indicators were likely to generate short-term volatility.

No clear trend in the overall market and trading continued to focus on position adjustments.

A quiet but impressive day of price movements, but with a heavy upside.

trade observations

The decision to carefully hold off on any upward movement and only aim for short-term pushes was appropriate.

Strong awareness of return sales at milestones, limited follow-on buying

Entry was safe after confirming a turn in the flow.

checklist

Check whether short-term support is maintained

Examining reactions to US economic indicators.

Pay attention to changes in position bias.

review

EURUSD briefly broke above last week's highs as the dollar sold off amid reduced liquidity due to the US holiday.

summary

Weakness in European indicators combined with a holiday in the US markets resulted in a generally directionless day.

The US dollar softened and the euro was bought back in the New York hour following the employment-related preliminary report.

Ultimately, the upward movement did not continue, and short-term profit-taking slowed the growth.

Today's price movements

The Tokyo and European hours were limited, with small ups and downs compared to the previous day.

Dollar sales strengthened towards the New York time, with a slight move above last week's highs.

There was then a reactionary dollar buying back and the market closed at a slightly calmer level at the end of the day.

Background and materials

The German ZEW Business Confidence Index fell short of expectations, which raised awareness of the cautious attitude towards the European economy.

In the US, the bond market was closed for a public holiday and key economic indicators were scarce.

Technical buying by some short-term players boosted the market at times, but continuity was limited.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The latest upside is located near last week's high, maintaining the short-term uptrend line.

On the other hand, on a daily basis, it is difficult to establish a sense of direction, as it is not possible to clearly break out of the upper resistance zone.

The move up was made on thin volume and caution should be exercised in the event of a short-term rebound.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market has remained firm since September, but there is still pressure to return to the market.

The moving averages are converging and are in a transitional period of directional searching.

US interest rate developments and European business confidence indicators are likely to be key to trend formation in the future.

impression

While the market as a whole was quiet ahead of the event, the technical factor-driven upswing was impressive.

This is considered to be a temporary move due to short-term position adjustments rather than a sustained buying trend.

Price movements are likely to be exaggerated during periods of low liquidity, and a cautious approach is required.

trade observations

It is safer to enter the market after confirming the reaction around the milestone than to chase higher prices in thin trading.

Short-term traders should be aware of gains on the upside and focus on risk management in the event of sudden changes.

In an environment where directionality is difficult to obtain, it is useful to limit position size.

checklist

Beware of over-positioning before key indicators

Wary of risk of reversals during periods of low liquidity.

Do not be overconfident about short-term breakouts and check thoroughly

review

UK employment figures showed worsening unemployment, which led to a temporary sell-off in the pound, but the US dollar softened following US employment-related indicators, and the pound regained some of the fall.

summary

Markets were cautious about the outlook for interest rates in the UK and the US, and prices continued to move in a directionless manner.

Although the market responded to short-term material, it remained within a limited range overall.

The tug-of-war between risk aversion and interest rate expectations continues and no clear trend has formed.

Today's price movements

Asian hours saw small movements, continuing the previous day's trend, with a temporary drop in European hours following the employment figures.

In the New York time, the US index results led to dollar selling, with the pound trading lower.

The closing stages of the trading session were mixed with positional adjustments, and the price range converged to a limited range.

Background and materials

With the UK labour market showing signs of slowing, there was an awareness of the prospect of a rate cut by the BoE.

In the US, employment-related indicators were slightly weaker, limiting the dollar's upside.

The market environment continues to be aware of a turning point in global interest rate policy.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the phase is heavy on the upside, and it is easy to be aware of return pressure.

There has also been some buying back in the support zone, and the price has continued to move in and out of a narrow range.

Short-term indicators are directionless and awaiting a clear break.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market has formed a gradual holding range, with limited signs of a trend change.

The market continues to be in equilibrium, with prices hovering around the major moving averages.

The next UK economic indicators and BoE statements will be the focus for medium-term trends.

impression

The reaction to the material was temporary, indicating investors' cautious attitude.

The market remains in a wait-and-see mood as the future of policy rates is difficult to see.

The immediate future is more likely to be influenced by changes in sentiment than fundamentals.

trade observations

The market is easily swayed by ups and downs due to sudden index announcements, and position management is required.

Flexibility is important in short-term trading, based on the limited nature of the price range.

Until a clear break is confirmed, cautious entry is safe.

checklist

Check the date of the next economic indicator release in the UK and the US.

Keep track of the schedule of key BOE officials' statements

Reconfirm key support and resistance levels

review

The Australian dollar was generally directionless in a narrow range, although there was some support from statements by key Australian Central Bank officials.

summary

Selling dominated in Tokyo, and European hours ended in a struggle.

In New York, US employment-related indicators led to a temporary sell-off of the dollar, but buy-backs restricted the upside.

Overall, the mood of waiting for materials was strong and trading was limited to a small range of prices.

Today's price movements

After falling to near the previous day's lows in early Asia, the market rebounded slightly on the back of short-term muscle buying.

In Europe, price movements continued to lack direction and the flow was not set in stone, partly due to the low number of participants.

Dollar selling pressure briefly increased in New York, but the Australian dollar's gains were limited.

Background and materials

The Australian dollar was supported by statements from the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Australia, which indicated a strong stance on inflation control.

In the US, risk appetite recovered slightly as expectations of an averted government shutdown grew.

However, the market had difficulty in finding a sense of direction due to a mix of strong and weak US economic indicators.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, there was a rebound from near the lower end of the range, but the upside was restrained at the previous day's high level.

The short-term moving averages remain flat and no clear trend reversal has been identified.

There was also a decline in volume, and active new positions were limited.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market continues to remain in the middle of the range and lacks direction.

Downward movement has been confirmed in the support zone, leaving room for a buy-back.

Breaking through the upper resistance zone is seen as requiring additional material or a clear weakening on the US dollar side.

impression

The Australian dollar moved in equilibrium between the resilience of its fundamentals and the instability of the US dollar.

While the mood of risk aversion receded across the market, there was cautious trading that did not lead to trend formation.

The market is likely to remain susceptible to short-term material and may continue to be directionless.

trade observations

Short-term traders were mainly scalable, in line with the small price range environment.

The composition of the market continued to be a mix of buying with an eye on the support zone and selling back at resistance.

In the medium-term stance, position adjustment was a priority and new build-up was discouraged.

checklist

Review the statements and minutes of the Bank of Australia officials.

Watch for changes in US employment-related indicators and interest rate trends.

Continued confirmation of key support and resistance zones