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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | β | Oct Trade balance (USD) | graphical representation | |||||
| π¨π³ China | β | Oct Trade balance (RMB) | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Nov University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, preliminary | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day, the market was dominated by a return sell-off, which pushed the market down from the highs and spread a sense of caution and heaviness on the upside. Today, it will be interesting to see whether the market will consolidate lower prices or move back to testing the milestone. Position adjustments and rebalancing due to weekend factors also require attention.
On the European side, major material is limited, but there is still a sense of caution regarding the weakness of the German economic indicators released the previous day and the comments of ECB officials. The previous day, the euro was predominantly bought and remained at a higher level with some push-backs. Today, the focus is likely to be on the slow return around the milestone and the extent to which positional adjustments specific to the weekend will be noticed.
While there is awareness of the Bank of England's policy unchanged and the prospect of a gradual interest rate cut in the future, uncertainty remains over the UK's fiscal situation, making it difficult for the market to aggressively decide on a direction. The previous day, the market was supported on the downside by predominant buying, but the upside was easily overlapped by speculation of a return to the market, and there was a mixture of pushing and profit-taking. Today, the market will be closely watched to see if the price movement continues at the high end, taking into account the impact of the weekend rebalancing.
The Australian dollar lacks notable support on the Australian side, and is conscious of the weakness on the upside against a backdrop of shaky US interest rates and risk appetite. On the previous day, selling intensified from the New York time and the trend of a return to the market was halted, closing the day on a softer note overall. While some buying was seen at lower prices, there were few clear clues to determine the direction, and the price action remained unstable. Today is likely to be a moment when short-term swings need to be watched ahead of weekend capital adjustments and the results of US economic indicators.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In Tokyo hours, buying was ahead, but the upside was restrained by sluggish growth in US interest rates. In the European session, the rise was halted, although it did not test the previous day's lows, due to a predominant sell-off on the return. The US market was more wait-and-see, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction with limited price movements. Overall, the day was marked by both upside and downside support, although the market remained in a high price range.
Euro buying strengthened in the European hours and the trend continued until mid-New York, where profit-taking and selling to adjust holdings became more prevalent in the second half of the day, and the upward momentum receded somewhat. As a result, although there were some moments of testing of the highs, the market was sluggish towards the end of the day.
The price continued to be supported by a push in mid-European hours, with the buying trend remaining uninterrupted in the US hours that followed. The pound showed resilience despite the strength and weakness of the US dollar and closed higher.
In Tokyo, selling was ahead, but the downside was limited, followed by buying back. By European hours, the market lacked a sense of direction and was waiting for the next material in small price movements. In general, the day was marked by a wait-and-see attitude, with the market remaining under downward pressure but not breaking down significantly.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Normal time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day was marked by a return to the market and increased awareness of the downwards direction, leading to a sense of caution and heaviness on the upside in the market.
Today's US employment figures and weekend rebalancing make it difficult to determine the direction of the situation.
Assumed range
The lower price is near the level of the candidate for a push
The upside is around the level of the return sale.
tactics
The basic policy is to sell on the return, with a flexible stance to check for pushback reactions.
If the trend settles down, look for rotation within the short-term range.
trigger
Downwards if the recent lows are clearly below the recent lows.
Upward movement above the standard level of return and after the index.
override condition
If a strong buy-back occurs during the downside phase and the recent return high is exceeded
If price movements remain limited and directionless for a prolonged period after the event
risk event
Results of US employment and wage-related data.
References to statements or interventions by the Japanese authorities on exchange rate fluctuations
Change in risk appetite due to sudden swings in US interest rates and stock markets
position management
Position sizes are kept lower than usual, with a stance of holding back on new positions before the event.
Take profits early before the milestone and adjust for carryover risk, including weekend factors.
Stop-losses are set at the point where a clear negation of the trigger level is confirmed.
checklist
Check the reaction of interest rates to the results of the US jobs report.
Check whether the authorities have made any alarming statements about the exchange rate.
Check post-event price movements and reactions at milestone levels
Market summary
The previous day was dominated by euro buying, with the euro holding at a higher level between pushes.
Weakness in German economic indicators and caution about ECB key figures remain, but the situation is restraining the dollar's upward movement.
Assumed range
The outlook is for price movements around the late 1.14 - late 1.15 range.
A situation where the focus should be on the slow return and the presence or absence of a push around the milestone.
tactics
Basis is to buy at the push, but also consider the possibility that buying momentum may slow down around milestones
Avoid forced following and give priority to picking up on short-term adjustments.
trigger
Timing of the release of the US jobs report to influence direction.
On the upside, a clear move above the recent highs; on the downside, a break below the previous day's push level is a determining factor.
override condition
If the push does not work and the low is made, the scenario needs to be revised.
Subject to reconsideration in the event of rapid price movements in one direction and well off the milestone.
risk event
US employment statistics
ECB key figures' statements
Position adjustment through weekend rebalancing
position management
Lots are set up conservatively and prepared for sharp fluctuations before and after the event.
Set gains in small increments before milestones, and set losses clearly at push-backs and failed returns.
Avoid holding for long periods of time and consider partial liquidation before index releases.
checklist
Have you checked the US jobs report and the market reaction to the announcement?
Are the most recent highs and lows and milestone levels known?
Is the amount of positions adjusted and held before and after the event appropriate?
Market summary
Conscious of the Bank of England's unchanged decision and the prospect of a rate cut, while uncertainty over UK public finances remains and directionality is limited.
Ahead of the US jobs report, the situation remains high as we await dollar-led price action
Assumed range
Around 1.29 - 1.31
Easy to be aware of reactions around milestones and need to be cautious about following either up or down.
tactics
buying when the market is down
However, they are cautious about chasing higher prices and are prepared to prioritise attraction to the support zone.
trigger
A break above the recent highs is a good indicator for a short-term decision to continue buying.
Initial reaction after the release of the US jobs report and the flow of the European hour are likely to provide a sense of direction.
override condition
If the potential pushpoints are clearly broken down and the downside risk is intensified.
Rapid stall from highs without material, with little room for a rebound.
risk event
US employment statistics
Additional statements and media reports on UK budget policy.
Flow fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing
position management
Entry is limited to the vicinity of support zones and position size is kept lower than usual.
Gains are secured in stages at the most recent high level or just before the milestone.
Set stop-losses at a level where the potential push point is clearly broken, and avoid going too deep.
checklist
Did you see changes in price movements and liquidity before and after the US jobs report?
Have the main support and resistance levels and reactions been organised in advance?
Did they take into account weekend-specific flows and carrying risks?
Market summary
The Australian dollar continues to be susceptible to swings in US interest rates and changes in risk appetite due to a lack of material from the Australian side.
On the previous day, the selling prevailed in the New York time and the return trend paused, and the overall state of the market is conscious of the heaviness of the upward trend.
Assumed range
The lower range is assumed to be around the recent lows and the upper range around the return highs.
Today, there is a possibility that the price range may expand depending on US indicators and weekend factors, and this is a situation where you need to be careful not to plunge either up or down.
tactics
The basic stance is to avoid excessive following at the lows and to make a decision by pulling back, while being conscious of selling back.
We want to avoid a bias in one direction and prioritise entry after confirming the reaction at the milestone.
trigger
To the upside, if a clear break above the recent return high and continued buying is confirmed.
To the downside, be aware of a continuation of the flow if the previous day's low band is broken and the subsequent return is weak.
override condition
If a downward push is immediately followed by a buy-back and the price is established at a higher level, the assumption of a return to the market is revised.
Conversely, if a lower price and a higher price is in view, the strategy needs to be revised.
risk event
Sudden fluctuations may occur due to the release of key indicators such as the US employment figures.
Irregular price movements due to weekend fund adjustments and position liquidation should also be noted.
position management
Position sizes are slightly smaller than normal, keeping room for sudden changes.
Gains are made frequently when milestones are reached and losses are quickly sorted out when they fall outside the expected range.
checklist
To check the US jobs report and the reaction of the dollar.
Be aware of changes in Australian-related indicators and resource prices.
To check whether the return highs and recent lows have been updated.
AI postcards: today's market
review
In Tokyo, the buying was heady, and the downside remained limited despite a return to the market in Europe, followed by a day of lack of direction as the market awaited material.
summary
The balance between buyers and sellers was close, with the market maintaining a high level but being aware of the upward pressure.
A mixture of sluggish US interest rate growth and weak economic indicators on the Japanese side did not lead to a clear trend.
The market was increasingly waiting for the next clue and bias in one direction was limited.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time began with a predominant yen sell-off, with some movement towards the previous day's highs.
In Europe, the return of the market was predominant, and the downward trend remained firm, although the upward momentum was retreating.
There were no significant developments over the US hours, and the price remained slightly higher until the end of the day.
Background and materials
In Japan, household expenditure and real wage growth remained sluggish, raising awareness of the continuation of the monetary easing stance.
In the US, however, the momentum of interest rate rises slowed down, which limited the dollar's upside.
Some demand for the yen as a safe asset was also seen, and there was not an all-encompassing trend to buy dollars.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The leg continues to be accompanied by an upper whisker at the high end of the range, which remains a warning sign for a return to the market in the short term.
The daily trend remains upward, but the reactions are still consciously near the recent highs.
The slope of the short-term moving average is moderate, suggesting a slowdown in momentum.
Technical note (mid-term).
The medium-term uptrend is holding and signs of a major change in direction are limited.
However, they continue to languish at high levels, and there is a somewhat more cautious view of the upward momentum.
The support line is conscious and the underlying tone itself is likely to be maintained if it is not broken.
impression
The environment tends to lean in one direction when materials are all present, but the impression is that a wait-and-see attitude prevails at present.
Although the market remains in a high price range, it is necessary to be flexible and not be overly determined about the direction of the market.
This is a situation that leaves room for swinging both upwards and downwards, while waiting for the next decision to be made.
trade observations
It was felt that it was safer to wait for a reaction to confirm a push or return than to follow an entry.
Prioritising profit-taking at higher prices and avoiding forced following led to risk aversion.
As the price range was limited in short-term trades, it was important to clarify position management and withdrawal criteria.
checklist
Have you checked the schedule of key economic indicators and key figures' statements?
Have entry and exit levels/rationales been set in advance?
Is the position size within the limits of cash management?
review
Euro buying prevailed from the European hour and rose until mid-New York, but the trend was sluggish afterwards due to adjustments.
summary
Euro buying was supported by the prospect of lower US interest rates and a lull in dollar buying.
However, the dollar also tended to be bought back on the downside, and towards the end of the day, the direction of the market slowed down somewhat due to a combination of return sales.
As a result, there was an awareness of the heaviness of the upside while testing the highs.
Today's price movements
In Tokyo hours, there was a lack of direction and a wait-and-see attitude continued.
The euro was bought upwards from the start of the European hour.
The buying trend continued until mid-NY time, but was pushed back slightly in the second half due to profit-taking.
Background and materials
Uncertainty about the outlook for US interest rates weighed on the dollar and supported euro buying.
Positional adjustments ahead of the release of US employment figures also progressed, curbing excessive dollar buying.
Although there was a lack of new bullish material from the eurozone side, the price movement was led by dollar factors.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the upside, the area around the most recent highs was conscious and could not be broken out of, leaving a heaviness on the upside.
Buying support was easily available at the pushes and the downward direction was limited.
In the short term, the range remains near the upper end of the range.
Technical note (mid-term).
In the medium term, the phase is seen as a test of a return to the downwards trend.
Selling pressure remains around the major moving averages and there is no confirmation of a trend reversal.
A breakthrough accompanied by material and volume is required to influence the medium-term trend.
impression
Although buying momentum was seen, the impression is that it was more a side effect of adjustments on the dollar side rather than euro-led.
It is difficult to get a sense of direction and the market feels close to waiting for the next material.
It is easy to swing either up or down, and this is a situation where excessive expectations and biased viewpoints should be avoided.
trade observations
While push-backs in the form of a trend worked, the highs were easily stretched and risky.
There were many short reversal moves around the milestone, and it was necessary to maintain clear decisions on gains and losses.
The impression was that it was more effective to check the rate trend than to force the opposite.
checklist
Have we identified the starting and ending points of the directional phase?
Did they record reactions at highs or lows?
Have we ensured that decisions are made in accordance with the rules and not driven by emotion?
review
The market was pushed higher from mid-Europe and continued to buy in the US hours to close at higher levels.
summary
Directionality was limited due to a combination of uncertainty over UK public finances and growth, amid expectations that the Bank of England will leave policy unchanged or cut interest rates.
The pound was easily bought on the downside and supported on the downside, despite the impact of US monetary policy observations and stock market movements.
Profit-taking was easy at higher prices, and there were signs of upward pressure, but in general the market was perceived to be resilient.
Today's price movements
Asian hours began with small price movements and continued to lack a sense of direction
Buying momentum strengthened as buyers pushed to the downside through the European hour.
In US hours, the market was dominated by buyers, while being swung by US interest rates and stock prices, and closed on a high note.
Background and materials
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged and the market was aware of the market's assumption of a gradual rate cut in the future.
Directionality was limited by a tug-of-war with material on the US dollar side, while uncertainty over UK fiscal management and growth weighed in.
US economic indicators and stock market movements influenced the dollar-led trend, and the pound's price movement adjusted accordingly.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The downward trend continued to cut up, as buyers were aware of the pushback.
Return speculation remained at the highs, and the focus was on the recent highs.
Short-term buying dominance, but some signs of a slowdown in the momentum of higher prices.
Technical note (mid-term).
The situation has entered a rebound phase, with downwards pressure remaining in the medium term.
The market continues to attack and defend around the major moving averages and is in need of time to confirm a change in direction.
If the highs continue, the ground is set to test the next milestone, while the possibility of a return to selling pressure remains.
impression
A day of mixed buying and selling speculation, but impressive resilience in the pound
Despite the lack of many materials, it seems that short-term muscle flows and changes in risk appetite have affected price movements
The market environment continues to require the ability to respond to detailed price movements rather than excessive expectations.
trade observations
There were some good moments to test the push, but cautious profit-taking decisions were necessary at higher prices.
It was important not to be overly biased towards buying, and to be aware of position consolidation in situations where momentum slowed.
The key was to frequently check the strength and weakness of price movements and to identify the dominant pushes rather than follow them.
checklist
Did the Bank of England's statements and changes in interest rate cut expectations confirm this?
Have you identified the push formation and flow in the European and US hours?
Have you reviewed your position bias and timing of gains at higher prices?
review
Selling was preceded by selling in Tokyo, but the downside was limited and the day subsequently ended with a lack of direction, accompanied by buying back.
summary
While the overall trend of predominant selling was noted, the market was reluctant to move lower due to buying back near the milestones.
The market lacked clear cues and was keen to see what the next event would be.
Today's price movements
Selling was dominant in early Tokyo, but the market stopped and rebounded at times before the previous day's lows.
The market swung up and down through Europe, but the price range was limited and there was a small movement with little sense of direction.
Background and materials
Weak economic indicators in China raised awareness of concerns about the Australian export environment.
The global mood was increasingly risk-averse, weighing on high-interest and resource-based currencies.
On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance did not suggest a sharp easing, which also provided support to the downside.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the market continues to attack around the milestone and the upside remains vulnerable to a return to the market.
The market remains below the moving averages and is likely to be aware of the upside potential in the return phase.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend of lower highs and lower lows continues and the market is seen to be in an adjustment phase.
However, buy-backs are also likely at key support and remain within a moderate downward bias.
impression
We feel that the price movements were a mixture of downside testing and buy-backs, which showed the hesitation of participants.
Even while awaiting material, risk aversion and China-related influences are likely to remain a concern.
trade observations
It was difficult to extend in one direction, and the phase required short-term discernment rather than profit-taking.
We feel that the attitude of making a decision after checking the reaction to a milestone rather than forcibly following it was effective.
checklist
Have you checked the scheduled release of Chinese and US economic indicators?
Are milestone support and resistance levels clearly defined?
Are loss lines and assumed risks set in advance?
FX Diary.