Market summary

While dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of strong US indicators, there was also mixed profit-taking at the highs, leading to a lack of sense of direction.

On the Japanese side, there is little change in monetary policy and little material to buy the yen, while caution about statements by the authorities is likely to limit the market's upside.

On the previous day, after swinging towards a stronger yen in Tokyo hours, the US dollar returned to a stronger position in US and European hours, with price movements swinging up and down in response to US indices.

Assumed range

The price is expected to be around the low 153 yen to mid-154 yen range.

The lower price is likely to be aware of the level considered as a candidate for last week's push, and a break below it could lead to an adjustment.

The upside is likely to be a return sale near the recent highs, and material is needed for a quick break above.

tactics

The basic assumption is to buy at the push, but avoid chasing high prices and make entry decisions with caution.

It is safe to wait for confirmation of a rebound around the milestone before entering the market.

Short-term forces will be looking to rotate within the range, leaving room for either up or down.

trigger

Volatility is likely to increase when US unemployment insurance-related and labour productivity results differ from expectations.

If there is a clear move out of the milestone in the morning in Tokyo and early in Europe, a follow-up trend is likely to be noticed.

If the continued rise in long-term US interest rates is confirmed, the dollar buying trend is likely to strengthen.

override condition

If the level is clearly below the most recent candidate for a push and the return is sluggish.

When selling pressure builds up at higher prices and the downward trend continues.

Tactics need to be reviewed when US interest rates fall back and the dollar's buying power weakens.

risk event

US initial unemployment insurance applications.

US labour productivity/unit labour cost.

Statements by foreign exchange authorities and sudden geopolitical news.

position management

Consider gains at every milestone, based on smaller lots within the expected range.

Losses should be cut as soon as a clear break below a potential push point.

Consider reducing positions or temporarily withdrawing during the hours between consecutive indicator results.

checklist

Do US interest rates remain on an upward trend?

Price and volume reaction near milestones

Whether the authorities have said anything to check the yen's depreciation

Market summary

In Europe, the search for material continues as we await an improvement in German orders and statements from ECB dignitaries.

In the US, the wait-and-see attitude is increasing due to caution about the monetary policy outlook ahead of labour-related indicators.

The previous day was difficult to find a clear direction and the market oscillated up and down, but remained within a certain level.

The trend is to buy back in at the lows, but the upside is heavy and the price movement is being explored in a range.

Assumed range

Lower in the low 1.06s to mid-1.06s area.

Above is around 1.07 low to mid 1.07.

The range is expected to hover around this range in the absence of major material developments.

tactics

The basic principle is range rotation.

In downside situations, the attitude is to pick up in small increments while assessing the room for a rebound.

Returns will confirm the sluggish phase and short-term sell rotation will be considered.

trigger

The focus is on fluctuations due to higher prices in the European hour and the release of indicators in the New York hour.

If the underlying tone moves, e.g. in the case of new US unemployment insurance claims, this may create an early sense of direction.

On the upside, the recent highs will be recognised, while on the downside, a test of the lows will be more likely.

override condition

If the market is firmly entrenched above the expected level, the return stance will be revised.

Conversely, if the return is weak after a downward movement, buy-down tactics should be discouraged.

Sudden increases in volatility and material surprises are also factors that can cause assumptions to be revised.

risk event

US initial unemployment insurance applications.

Statement by European Central Bank official.

Preliminary US employment and wage-related indicators.

position management

The basis is to take smaller positions within the expected range.

Use the most recent rebound/return level as a guide for profit-taking and avoid going too deep.

Losses are dealt with quickly based on a clear breakthrough of a milestone.

checklist

Is there continued awareness of the upper and lower bounds of the range in the price movements during the European hours?

Has there been a change in direction in the reaction following the release of US indicators?

Whether there is a change in market temperature due to statements by key figures or interest rate trends

Market summary

The market lacks direction ahead of the Bank of England's policy announcement and continues to wait for the next material, despite being aware of slowing inflation and slowing growth.

The previous day, while there was some buying back at the lower end, the upside was heavy and the price movement was only slightly position adjustment-driven.

Assumed range

Around 1.3000 - 1.3200.

Until the policy announcement, the amplitude is likely to remain within a range and the price range is likely to be limited.

tactics

Until the event passes, it is safe to keep positions small in case of sudden swings, based on range rotation.

As the direction of the market is likely to be determined by the content of the conference, switch flexibly to sell back or buy on the downside after the announcement.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the 1.3150 area would be a sign of an accelerated short-term buyback.

On the downside, downward pressure is likely to increase with a firming below 1.3000, and the entry into Europe and the time of policy announcements could be points of change.

override condition

If the price remains directionless in the 1.3100 range after the event and is not accompanied by volume, the premise of the strategy is likely to break down.

Tactics also need to be reviewed in the event of a sudden change in stop involvement on either the up or down side.

risk event

Bank of England policy rate, statement and vote split situation.

Statements made at the Governor's press conference on the timing of interest rate cuts and the inflation outlook.

US dollar interest rate trends in terms of US unemployment insurance claims and productivity indicators.

position management

Priority is to keep positions light before the announcement and avoid building up unrealised losses.

Size the market after confirming the post-announcement movement, with gains short and losses executed mechanically at pre-determined levels.

checklist

Does the content of the statement and the vote split suggest a direction of easing?

Is there a strong reference to the timing of the start of interest rate cuts and wages and prices at the conference?

Has the flow changed in response to interest rates and the dollar after US indicators?

Market summary

Concerns about economic slowdown in Australia and China and sluggish growth in resource prices are likely to weigh on the situation, while employment-related persistence against the US is a conscious consideration.

On the previous day, the Australian dollar was sold off in Tokyo, and from Europe onwards, the US dollar was bought in the wake of US indices, which restrained the return of the dollar.

Assumed range

Basic view of traffic from around the previous day's low to around the previous day's high on the upside.

Susceptible to temporary swings in US indicators and key figures' statements, with upside likely to be slowed by a thick band of return sales.

tactics

Based on a range rotation closer to the return sale, with an upward swing attracting a step-by-step response.

In the short term, assume a sharp rebound and build up interest in small increments.

trigger

Upper side extension inspection if a clear break above the previous day's high in early Europe.

Consider resuming the return sale if the initial reaction does not continue and the market falls back immediately after the US index.

override condition

Price transition where the upper leg is confirmed to be above with substance and no longer falls at the push point.

Continued rise with volume and headline support breaks the assumption of a sell-dominance.

risk event

US employment-related and unemployment insurance results and interest rate reactions to them.

Dignitaries' statements and sudden policy headlines

Sudden changes in China-related indicators and resource market conditions

position management

Size is more modest than usual and further reduced before and after the index.

Stop-losses are placed slightly outside the most recent return high and gains are split before the milestone.

checklist

Initial movement after the US indexes continues or reverses?

Direction of resource prices and China-related headlines

Change in return band and volume in the upper leg.

review

The return selling prevailed from Tokyo to Europe, and the selling intensified in the New York time, cancelling out the previous day's gains.

summary

While the background was the persistently high interest rates in the US and a recovery in risk appetite, foreign exchange caution on the Japanese side restrained the return.

Although there were some signs of a downward correction at the push level, selling tended to prevail in the New York hours, leading to an adjustment from the previous day's highs.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours saw a gradual decline from the highs, followed by a return sell-off into European hours.

In the New York time, the market fell below the milestone and buy-backs were limited.

Overall, the direction was aligned to the downside and there was an awareness of the heaviness of the upside.

Background and materials

Interest rate levels in the US were maintained, providing support for the dollar.

The Japanese authorities were wary of sudden currency fluctuations and the market remained aware of intervention risks.

Risk appetite in the stock markets was recovering and buying of the yen as a safe currency was limited.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The push level temporarily halted the decline, but the return was weak and the upside was cut off.

The market remained below the short-term moving average and there was little upward momentum in the return phase.

The range of intraday highs and lows was limited, and the short-term sell-dominated trend continued.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, downward pressure has intensified from holding at high levels.

The support milestone was breached and the next support band was consciously tested.

On the other hand, the medium- to long-term uptrend itself was maintained and remained seen as a push.

impression

With a lack of strong material, the market seemed to remain cautious as returns dominated the market.

The move from highs to lows was impressive, with adjustments rather than a sharp fall.

trade observations

The impression was that there were many occasions when the momentum was lacking for a push-back, and selling on the return was more advantageous.

While a rebound at the milestone should be confirmed before entering the market, there was also a limited downward tracking phase.

checklist

Check the attack and defence of key support levels.

Check for reports on statements by the authorities and on foreign exchange intervention.

Ensure that the direction is consistent with trends in US interest rates and stock markets.

review

A day of restrained dollar upside, with euro buying continuing from Tokyo to Europe and New York.

summary

This was due to the easing of uncertainty in the trade situation and a return to risk appetite in the market as a whole.

In New York, once a push was made, the downside was limited and the market closed at a higher level.

Today's price movements

The euro was gradually bought from Tokyo time, and the buying interest remained unabated in early Europe, raising the level.

In New York, the market temporarily adjusted due to selling, which was seen as profit-taking, but it was soon bought back and remained at a higher level in the closing stages.

Background and materials

Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy has receded and demand for the dollar as a safe asset has receded somewhat.

In the European market, the euro was underpinned by a sense of stock market strength and interest rates settling down.

Although market caution remained, there was no sharp risk aversion.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, there was an awareness of an upward trend, and the market continued to be easily bought at the pushpoint.

Trading increased around the milestone, but downward momentum was limited.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the gradual return trend is continuing and the market is testing the highs while consolidating the lows.

The moving averages have tilted from sideways to slightly upwards, giving the impression that the market is getting its bearings.

impression

The development was not swung by materials, but seemed to be stabilised by a combination of buy-backs and real demand.

Although not a sharp increase, a certain calmness has returned to price movements and the sense of caution among market participants seems to have eased.

trade observations

A move to carefully pick up the push was easily rewarded, and buying to follow was somewhat difficult to judge at times.

As the market did not swing significantly either up or down, we feel that it was important to manage the level of gains and losses.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule of key indicators and key figures' statements?

Are milestone levels and recent highs and lows known?

Is position size and risk tolerance appropriate?

review

Buying started in Tokyo, sustained in Europe and closed higher in New York with a push in between.

summary

The pound remained resilient despite awareness of the Bank of England's policy unchanged and the prospect of future interest rate cuts.

Although uncertainty over fiscal policy remained, downward momentum was limited and buy-backs prevailed.

Today's price movements

A gradual rise was formed in Tokyo and buying continued in Europe.

In New York, there was a brief profit-taking sell-off, but the downward pressure was shallow and the market turned to buying again.

Background and materials

The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged and the vote was close, raising awareness of the prospect of a rate cut.

The cautious stance by the financial authorities on spending and taxation has left the market uncertain.

On the US side, there was a lack of significant material and limited directionality in the dollar.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The push back was relatively shallow as the market remained at a high level.

The trend remained above the short-term moving average, indicating a strong buying interest.

Technical note (mid-term).

The range continues to hover near the upper end of the range and remains directionless.

In the medium term, the trend has not broken below support and the trend has not broken significantly.

impression

The material was somewhat weighty on the pound, but the reaction was limited and market tolerance was felt.

The next direction depends on the content of policy and fiscal events, a phase in which neither excessive expectations nor pessimism should be avoided.

trade observations

The push was shallow and the day was marked by an awareness of the superiority of push-buying over return selling.

However, there were times when it was difficult to extend at milestones, and judgement was questioned in following up.

checklist

Have price reactions after major events been identified?

Renewed support and resistance levels?

Have you reviewed the alignment of your positions and risk management?

review

Although a slight struggle continued in Tokyo and Europe, dollar buying prevailed in New York, restraining the Australian dollar's return and pushing it lower to around the previous day's level.

summary

The Australian dollar was in a directionless trend, with the upward pressure becoming more conscious towards the New York time.

Although there were occasions when the buying did not continue and the market was pushed back, the downside remained at a certain level and the overall range remained within the range.

Today's price movements

The Tokyo and European hours were marked by narrow price spreads, and a decision to forego decision-making due to material difficulties.

In the New York time, the Australian dollar was restrained to the upside against the backdrop of US interest rate developments and dollar buying back, and fell to near the level of the previous day's close.

Background and materials

There were no significant economic indicators or statements on the Australian side, and support for the Australian dollar was limited.

The US dollar remained resilient as interest rates fluctuated and risk appetite receded, relatively slowing the return of the Australian dollar.

Although the downward movement of resource prices provided some underpinning, market attention was focused on the strength of the dollar.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market was sluggish at a level where the upside was easily perceived, making it easy to sell back.

On the downside, the price has been holding back at the recent lows and is awaiting a clear break.

Technical note (mid-term).

On a multi-day basis, the highs continue to fall, and in the medium term, there is an awareness of the heaviness of the upside in the return phase.

The market is falling into a holding range between the central price points and continues to search for a sense of direction.

impression

Overall, it was a quiet day, but as indicated by the softening in the New York hours, the rebound appeared unlikely to continue on the strength of the Australian dollar alone.

There is room to tilt in one direction depending on the US dollar and interest rate flows, and the air remains awaiting material.

trade observations

There was a tendency for buying at the upper end of the range to not continue and to fall back, and in the short term it was felt that decisions could be made after a pull-back.

Although a break below the lows has been avoided, it is necessary to be aware of risk management without a bias towards buying.

checklist

To monitor developments in US interest rates and the dollar index.

Be aware of changes in Australian-related indicators and resource prices.

Checking whether the most recent low and return highs have been renewed.