Market summary

The previous day, the yen was in a buying direction as risk aversion prevailed due to falling US interest rates and stock market weakness.

Tokyo time was preceded by a downward test, after which the price range contracted as the market awaited material.

Today, after an early downward push, there was a buy-back, and the direction is still in the search phase.

Reaction to US indicators and interest rates is a daytime theme.

Assumed range

Assume a swing within the range of the previous day's low to near the return high.

Below, confirming the depth of the pushback awareness, while noting the slowdown in returns above.

Wary of range extension as liquidity recovers after entering Europe.

tactics

Basis is to focus on return sales, with short-term rotation for a rebound after a downward push.

Consider short-term hitting at close to the resistance zone and building up after confirming stall.

Avoid deepening the sharp rebound phase and check whether the momentum of the return slows down.

trigger

Clear break of the previous day's low and deteriorating volume

Transition with return suppressed in the first hours of European time.

Direction of interest rates relative to US ADP and ISM results.

Situations where US stock futures and interest rates show risk aversion in the same direction.

override condition

Clearly above the return high area, making a push and testing the high again.

US interest rates have picked up and stock prices are linked to risk appetite.

Selling momentum does not continue in the downside phase without accompanying volume

risk event

US ADP employment-related results and their interpretation.

US ISM non-manufacturing business confidence index.

Headlines related to key figures' statements and authorities

Sudden changes in US stock futures and oil prices

position management

Size can be divided more modestly than usual.

Execute gains in stages before the most recent milestone.

Stop-losses are set strictly outside the most recent return starting point or disabling condition.

checklist

Do US interest rates and stock futures continue to indicate risk aversion?

Will the initial European movement restrain the return or will it move to a push formation?

Does the correlation between US ADP and post-ISM prices and interest rates hold?

Market summary

Long waiting period for material ahead of European service PMI confirmations, German economic indicators, US ADP and ISM non-manufacturing in the evening.

The previous day, the trend was dominated by selling in Europe and beyond, and today, depending on the index headlines, short-term direction is likely to enter the picture.

Assumed range

Assumed intra-day range with the previous day's low band - Asian time return high band as the core.

Late European to US hours managed with margins above and below on the assumption of increased volatility before and after indicators.

tactics

Early London based on range rotation, with short term rotation of the reverse near the upper and lower limits.

Do not force the price ahead during the US index band, but follow the initial direction for a short period of time and take profits early.

trigger

If the initial European move is clearly above the previous day's highs, stand by for a push.

Policy shift to return to the market if the previous day's low is established after US ADP or ISM

override condition

If the upswing stalls without volume after the upswing and reverts to within the recent range, the follow-on scenario is withdrawn.

Downside is a strong rebound after a new low, and if the recovery is over the previous return high, the return assumption is removed.

risk event

Surprises in German index and Eurozone PMI confirmations.

US ADP employment data blips and changes in ISM non-manufacturing inflation-related indicators.

Sudden risk-off due to key figures' statements and geopolitical headlines

position management

Moderate size during the day, with further reduction in the US index band and gradual build-up after initial confirmation.

Interest is set shallowly based on the most recent swing high and low or the formation range boundary immediately before the indicator.

Stop-losses are placed directly outside the basis of entry, and if the price continues to move differently than expected, the user should temporarily exit to a no-position.

checklist

Update on previous day's highs and lows and Asian time range positioning

Recorded European PMI blips and the market's initial reaction

Examining the initial direction of the US index band and the strength of the pushback.

Market summary

The UK is set to announce its monetary policy the following day, with a slowdown in inflation and uncertainty over fiscal policy limiting the return of the pound.

In the US, employment and economic indicators are in the spotlight and the dollar is holding firm

The previous day's GBPUSD was dominated by selling from the European hour and closed with a downward trend in mind.

Although there has been a buy-back near the milestone, the upside has been restrained and there is a lack of direction.

Assumed range

Around 1.3000 - around 1.3150

Assume a rebound from the milestone and a return to the market

If both up and down are out, there is room for the flow to change.

tactics

Basically, the priority is to sell back.

If the upside test is weak, we will respond by selling in stages.

Near the milestone, we will also look at short-term buy-backs.

trigger

A clear break above around 1.3110 is likely to increase buying pressure.

We note an acceleration of selling below 1.3000.

US employment indicators and increased liquidity in US time could trigger change.

override condition

If it breaks above 1.3150 and acts as a push, the return scenario is broken

Assumptions need to be revised even if the rebound continues after a lower price and the highs are maintained

We also note when major positional biases are resolved before the event.

risk event

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) results published

US ADP employment figures, US service sector related indicators.

Key figures' statements on UK fiscal developments.

position management

The overall position is usually smaller

Interest rates are executed earlier, just before the milestone.

Losses are limited to outside the return high or recent low.

checklist

Availability of buy-backs at around 1.3000

Changes in flow and volume before and after US indices

Confirmation of bias in position adjustment before BOE

Market summary

The Australian dollar's return to the market has been slow due to concerns about inflation and softening resource prices, even after Australia left its monetary policy unchanged.

With the release of employment-related indicators in the US, the ground is still swinging depending on the direction of the dollar.

The previous day, the market closed lower with a strong sell-off, and today, although there was a test to the downside again, the market was bought back at the pushpoint.

Assumed range

Around 0.6450-0.6530.

While downward pressure remains, it is easy for buyers to come and go at the milestones.

There is a possibility of range expansion due to price movements after US indicators.

tactics

The basic principle is to return to the market.

However, temporary push-backs around milestones are also considered.

Avoid going deep if it is difficult to get a sense of direction.

trigger

On the downside, a clear break below the previous day's low area.

To the upside, continue to buy if the recent return high is exceeded or after European hours.

The results of the US ADP employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing index are also noted.

override condition

If the price has strengthened to a lower level and continues to rise above the return high.

If strong buy-backs continue without material.

If a move is accompanied by volume that easily negates the milestone.

risk event

US ADP employment figures.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index.

Australian balance of trade.

position management

Size is based on half of normal.

Adjust gains frequently before the milestone.

Stop-losses are set based on recent return highs or support negation levels.

checklist

Strength of buy-backs against a test of lower prices.

Dollar directionality before and after US indices.

Risk trends in resource prices and stock markets.

review

In Tokyo, the yen was temporarily in favour of the dollar, but was bought back, and in Europe, the dollar was bought in a directionless manner, while in New York, the dollar was bought in favour of the US dollar on the back of US indices.

summary

US economic indicators showed resilience and supported the dollar buying trend.

On the Japanese side, the yen's buying momentum was limited, although caution about monetary policy and statements by authorities remained.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, the yen was bought by risk-averse buyers, but the yen returned to the lower price levels as buyers were conscious of the need to push the yen back down.

European hours were dominated by small firings amid material difficulties.

US dollar buying prevailed following US indicators released in the New York time, and there were signs of a test of higher prices.

Background and materials

In the US, economic indicators exceeded market expectations, supporting interest rates

On the Japanese side, there was no change in the direction of monetary policy and there was a sense of caution about what the exchange rate authorities would say.

Developments in the stock market and long-term US interest rates also affected the direction of the exchange rate.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, there is an awareness of push-backs, while there are also scattered return sales at the high end of the market

There was an awareness of the heaviness of the upside around the milestone, and a move to assess the strength of the rebound.

The market continues to move above the moving average line and the downside price looks relatively firm

Technical note (mid-term).

The medium-term trend remains upwards, but an adjustment phase near the recent highs is also in view

The daily trend continues to hold at high levels and continues to search for direction.

The distance between the main support and resistance zones is narrowing and new material is seen as necessary for a break

impression

Despite the impact of the index releases, the market as a whole was not overly polarised and the price movements were calm.

While caution remained in chasing higher prices, buying interest was confirmed at the pushpoints.

trade observations

In the short term, it was difficult to get a sense of direction, and trading was more about checking reactions at milestones.

There were also sudden fluctuations before and after the release of indicators, which raised awareness of the importance of position management.

checklist

Developments in long-term US interest rates and the stock market's attitude to risk.

Check price and volume reaction near major support and resistance zones.

Beware of sudden headline risks from currency authorities and key figures' statements.

review

Despite the material, there was a lack of direction and the market continued to move in a range, testing up and down.

summary

In Europe, German orders showed improvement, but the response was limited due to the varied nature of the orders.

In the US, employment-related indicators led to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, but the move did not last and prices returned to a more subdued level.

Overall, the day was marked by a strong mood to wait and see what happens with interest rates and stock prices, with markets avoiding active directional action

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours started with quiet price movements and there was no significant movement out of the range in the European hours.

In US time, there was a temporary swing towards a stronger dollar after the index release, but it returned quickly and settled back down to a more settled level.

The market swung up and down throughout, but returned to the central price zone at the end of the day.

Background and materials

While German manufacturing-related indicators showed year-on-year improvement, some weakness in the breakdown remained and market assessments were divided.

In the United States, employment-related data was confirmed, with the results raising awareness of both the strength and slowdown in the labour market

There were no major policy changes in either Europe or the US, and there was a widespread willingness to wait and see what events later in the week would bring.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market continued to bounce back and forth between recent highs and lows, with limited directionality.

Prices tended to converge around short-term moving averages and rebounds and returns tended not to be overly extended

The momentum was lacklustre, with an exchange of push-backs and sell-backs, but no clear breakthrough.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the gradual downward trend from last month is continuing, and there is an awareness of the heaviness of the upside in the return phase.

Repeated attacks and defences around the round number, with no signs of a reversal fully confirmed.

On a weekly basis, the impression is that it is still near the middle of the range and awaiting material to change direction.

impression

The way the market reacts to the material, but then quickly returns to a calm price movement, gives the impression that the market is prioritising wait-and-see.

With the market continuing to lack a sense of direction, it was easy to be swayed by small price movements and to avoid following the market unreasonably.

The lack of a major bias seems to mean that we are only poised to make a move depending on the next material.

trade observations

It was difficult to aim for a price range in the short term, and a response in the form of a series of small gains was required.

The decision to return and push back worked, but there were times when the reversal was caught in a reversal if it was pulled too far

It was safer to chop small, checking the reaction at each knot than to rush into action.

checklist

Check market reaction to the next European indicators and ECB-related statements.

Watch the impact of changes in US interest rates and stock prices on currency markets.

Check the quality of price movement and volume around the upper and lower range limits.

review

The market was directionless, with some ups and downs as we awaited the Bank of England's meeting.

summary

The UK services PMI was revised upwards, giving a sense of economic resilience, but assessments of growth and inflation were divided and the market remained in a wait-and-see attitude.

There were some dollar-buying moments in response to US indicators, but the flow did not continue, and a cautious stance prevailed ahead of the UK policy announcement.

Today's price movements

The price range remained narrow during the Tokyo hours and the direction remained unclear after the start of the European session.

In the New York time, the US dollar was temporarily pushed downwards by the US index, but the swing narrowed again towards the close and eventually remained within the range.

Background and materials

The UK services PMI confirmations were revised upwards, but there was also awareness of slowing price pressures and a slowdown in the economy, which was a key factor in the Bank of England's decision-making process.

In the US, employment-related and economic indicators were released, and there were some dollar buying flows via interest rate trends, but excessive position building ahead of the Bank of England was avoided.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The most recent decline had run its course, and while pushback was seen at the lower end of the range, the upside was more likely to see a return to the market.

In the short term, the market repeatedly rebounded and stalled around milestones, and the price range remained limited.

Technical note (mid-term).

The medium-term trend continues to test the recovery from the downward trend, with a conscious reaction around the milestone.

Although the position with the moving averages and the highs and lows are continuing to cut, there are signs of a bottoming out and we are still waiting for material to judge the direction of the market.

impression

The main theme is the confirmation of the Bank of England's stance, and it feels like a reasonable development for the day before the meeting.

With little momentum leaning in one direction and limited liquidity, the impression is that the market was led by short-term muscle traffic.

trade observations

Rebounds and stalls at milestones were reacted to relatively straightforwardly, and short-term trading opportunities were available, but decisions were required not to pull too hard.

Because of the pre-event, it was necessary to be light on positions, and it was effective to follow the price movements without forcing a directional decision.

checklist

Vote split at the Bank of England meeting and the tone of the statement.

Authorities' assessment of service sector PMIs and price outlook.

Spillover effects of reactions to US interest rates and the dollar

review

Selling of the Australian dollar was preceded by a sell-off in Tokyo, but was accompanied by a buy-back, while in New York, the US dollar was dominated by US indices

summary

Australia remained consciously wary of inflation even after the policy rate was left unchanged, and sluggish growth in resource prices led to a heavy upward pressure.

In the US, strong indicators were confirmed, mainly employment-related, and the resilience of the economy led to dollar buying.

Today's price movements

The Australian dollar was supported to a certain extent by a sell-off in Tokyo, followed by a buy-back.

The European hour was directionless, but in the New York hour, the Australian dollar was restrained to the upside as US indices strengthened dollar buying.

Background and materials

The RBA has left its policy rate unchanged, maintaining caution about a resurgence in inflation, and the prospect of additional easing has receded

On the other hand, the slowdown in the Chinese economy and weakness in iron ore prices put upward pressure on the Australian dollar, while improving US indicators provided a backdrop for dollar dominance.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the trend was a conscious return to the market and selling pressure was likely to increase even if the market rallied.

Lower prices were also bought at historical lows, with intraday price movements testing the ups and downs

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the downward trend continues to test the return, and the area around the moving average and trend line is in focus.

The downward trend itself continues, and even when the momentum slows, there has been no clear turnaround.

impression

The impression is that while the Australian policy stance is supportive of the currency, the external environment remains a factor restraining the currency's upward movement.

While US indicators remain strong, the Australian dollar's return is likely to be limited and the market remains cautious, keeping a close eye on the material.

trade observations

Even as the predominant selling trend continued, the situation was such that short-term buy-backs were sandwiched in between, so that highs and lows were to be avoided.

We found it useful to refrain from forced entry during times of lack of direction and to wait for clear material or milestones.

checklist

Focus on changes in US employment-related indicators and interest rate trends

Check movements in iron ore prices and China-related indicators.

Check reactions near the previous day's high and low.