Market summary

The situation continues to lack a sense of direction, with a temporary sell-off of the dollar in response to US economic indicators, but it has been bought back.

While there is an awareness of the temperature difference between the BOJ's gradual stance and US monetary policy, the authorities' caution about intervention is restricting the upside.

With US economic indicators and key figures due today, the market's reaction to interest rate trends will be the focus of attention.

Assumed range

Assumption is for ups and downs centred around the late ¥153 to mid ¥154 area.

There is a strong feeling that a clear break is awaited for material, and excessive following should be refrained from until a sense of direction is given.

Prepare for a possible change in the short-term trend if there is a move out either up or down.

tactics

The basic idea is to be aware of range rotation, but to be cautious and not follow extreme swings.

Prioritise short-term rotation with limited price range, in preparation for both push-back and return sales.

In the intervention alert zone, a cautious approach to new purchases and waiting for a return scene is an option.

trigger

The short-term trend divergence is above the recent highs on the upside and below the previous day's low on the downside.

The results of the US ISM and employment-related indicators could change market sentiment, with close attention to price movements before and after the announcements.

Real demand flows in Tokyo hours and US interest rates and stock futures from Europe onwards are the deciding factors.

override condition

A clear break below the lower limit of the range, with return selling prevailing.

On the upside, if there is a sharp sell-off accompanied by interventionist observations, the buy line is reset.

If there is little price movement after the index, consider revising short-term strategies or remain static.

risk event

US ISM non-manufacturing index, ADP employment, statements by key US figures.

Bank of Japan minutes published; comments related to intervention by the Ministry of Finance.

Risk aversion flows due to geopolitical risks and sudden changes in stock markets.

position management

The size is kept modest, maintaining the capacity to cope with sudden changes.

Gains are picked up reliably, even in small amounts, and decisions to extend are made after checking interest rates and post-index reactions.

Limit losses based on recent return highs and push lows, without going too deep.

checklist

Have the results of US economic indicators and the reaction of US interest rates been confirmed?

Are you aware of headlines related to statements and interventions by the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan officials?

Are the position size and stop-loss line within the expected range?

Market summary

The day was marked by a wait-and-see mood in Europe ahead of key figures' statements and US employment-related indicators.

After falling below the previous day's low, the Eurodollar temporarily sold off the US dollar in response to US indices and bounced back to a lower level.

Thereafter, there was a buy-back but a lack of direction, and the overall trend was calm.

While there is a deep-rooted awareness in the market to the downwards direction, the trend continues to confirm the sluggishness of the return.

Assumed range

Today, we expect prices to be in the region of late 1.09 - early 1.10.

There is limited power to get out of both the upper and lower levels, and the situation continues to be one of waiting for clues.

There is mixed awareness of return pressure on the upside and pushback on the downside.

tactics

The basic stance is to prioritise return sales.

In the event of a sudden rebound, check the momentum of the price movement and follow it cautiously.

It is important to avoid forced contrarianism and to assess the reaction around the milestone.

trigger

The initial decision will be based on whether the market will break above the previous day's return high area during the European hour.

On the downside, the flow is likely to accelerate if there is a clear break below the recent lows.

It should be noted that the market is prone to short-term swings depending on US employment-related indicators and the content of key figures' statements.

override condition

If the highs are maintained above the milestone, the return scenario is broken.

If the buy-back continues after the indicator and the downside concerns ease, the tactic should be reviewed.

If the closing price is firmly above the milestone, a change of direction will be considered.

risk event

Data on the strength of the US economy, including the number of US JOLTS jobs and service sector-related indicators.

Statements by ECB officials and references to their monetary policy stance.

Risk aversion due to the situation in the Middle East and oil price swings.

position management

Position sizes are kept smaller than usual to prepare for sudden fluctuations.

Gains are made in stages around the nearest support/resistance.

Losses are mechanically dealt with when the milestone is clearly passed.

checklist

Confirmation of price movements and return momentum in European hours.

Reaction after US indicators and the strength of downward pressure.

Signs of risk aversion due to key figures' statements and geopolitical news.

Market summary

The situation remains limited in terms of direction ahead of the Bank of England's decision, although a pick-up in UK economic indicators has been confirmed.

In the US, the focus on private-sector indicators has increased, compensating for delays in official statistics, and swings in interest rate observations have restrained the dollar's upside.

The previous day saw a temporary sell-off of the dollar in response to US indicators, but after the back-and-forth, this did not lead to a major trend and the market remains in a range.

Assumed range

The lower limit is assumed to be near the previous day's push and the upper limit near the recent return high.

Based on the assumption that the environment is unlikely to provide a clear sense of direction, the market will be aware of the range formed by price movements in the European hours.

tactics

The basic policy is to assume a range rotation, but to focus on reverse rotation by attracting to milestones.

If acceleration in one direction is observed, do not follow it forcibly and prioritise a wait-and-see attitude for the next return or push.

trigger

On the upside, look out for a short-term buyback if a move above the previous day's highs is made during European hours.

On the downside, be wary of a downward push if the Asian time lows are broken or the reaction from European indicators is weak.

Revised UK services PMI and US ISM indicators could trigger change.

override condition

The range strategy is reset once a momentum price movement clearly exceeds the expected range.

On the downwards direction, if the potential push is significantly below the potential push and the return is also weak, a correction of the line of sight is necessary.

If the post-index movement reverses rapidly, avoid decisions to follow initial movements.

risk event

Breakdown of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and the number of votes.

Revised results of UK service sector indices.

Changes in interest rate observations due to US ISM and employment-related indicators.

position management

Position sizes start at half the normal size and are adjusted in stages at milestones.

Set the gains short and adjust them later only if they grow.

Losses are mechanically executed a few points beyond the milestone.

checklist

Check market reaction to the UK services PMI confirmations.

Results of US private sector indicators and overall movement of the dollar.

Position bias and speculative tilt before the Bank of England meeting.

Market summary

The Bank of Australia left its policy rate unchanged, a situation in which it maintains a neutral stance, referring to the stickiness of inflation and the strength of demand.

In the US, the US dollar has remained firm and the Australian dollar's return has been limited, as there is a sense of a delayed rate cut.

On the previous day, the market briefly tested lower in the New York hour, but was somewhat subdued towards the end of the day as buyers returned to the market.

Assumed range

A small range around 0.6500-0.6550 is expected.

It is difficult to find clear material on either the upside or downside, and the firings are likely to continue around the milestones.

A push from US indicators and Australian-related headlines will be needed to give a sense of direction.

tactics

The basic stance is to rotate the range, with a view to entering the market only after confirming the reaction near the milestone.

Carefully combine push-buying at lower prices and return selling at higher prices.

Avoid deep pursuit when price range is limited and prioritise securing short-term profits.

trigger

The upside is conditional on a clear break above 0.6550 and consolidation.

The downside is below 0.6500, especially if it takes hold after the NY hour, which is a warning point.

Attention should also be paid to the timing of the release of the Australian PMI and the US ISM non-manufacturing index.

override condition

If the price remains high with a push above 0.6550.

Alternatively, if the decline continues without a return after a break below 0.6500, the range assumption should be revised.

Sudden changes due to large flows or statements by key figures can also undermine assumptions.

risk event

Australian Services PMI, Preliminary Composite PMI.

US ISM non-manufacturing index, trade balance.

Statements by RBA officials and business news related to China.

position management

Position sizes are more modest than usual and adjusted in steps according to price range.

Take profits just before the milestone and avoid unreasonable pulling.

Stop-losses should be placed shallowly outside the expected range to ensure that there is room for re-entry.

checklist

Confirming the balance of forces between Australian dollar return and pushback.

Monitor price and volume changes before and after the release of Australian and US indices.

Check the shape of the whiskers and candlesticks around milestones and whether there is a rebound

review

The yen was predominantly bought in Tokyo hours, and the return was slow from Europe to New York, with the overall market closing at lower levels.

summary

The US dollar continued to be dominated by adjustments, with a lack of direction and a sense of upward pressure on the yen.

Markets were reluctant to trade aggressively, while exploring the outlook for US economic indicators and monetary policy.

Today's price movements

The yen was bought in the Tokyo hours, followed by a series of small amplitudes in the European and New York hours.

Buying back was limited towards the end of the day and the market remained at a low level.

Background and materials

Concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and the outlook for monetary policy were a factor in restraining the dollar's upward movement.

On the other hand, there was no change in the Bank of Japan's easing stance and there was a lack of positive buying opportunities for the yen.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, a downward trend was perceived and the return phase was limited.

On the downside, a test of the recent lows was warranted, while on the upside, selling was likely to occur around the milestone.

Technical note (mid-term).

The medium-term trend continues to be range-bound and the trend is not yet clear.

Even on the upside, highs have been limited and the market has remained in a holding pattern.

impression

It was a day when the market as a whole was inclined to wait and see, as it was unable to decide on a direction despite a lot of material.

The price range is narrow and there is a widespread impression of caution among participants.

trade observations

The market was easy to aim for a return sale, but there were also times when it was difficult to judge gains due to a lack of momentum.

It was felt that it was more effective to respond in small increments, checking milestones, rather than forcibly following them.

checklist

Check the schedule for the release of US economic indicators.

Be prepared for statements and reports related to the Bank of Japan.

Observe reactions and changes in volume at milestone levels

review

The euro was unable to return and tested the downward direction as the dollar was predominantly bought on the back of interest rate speculation in the US and Europe.

summary

The euro continued to move higher, with US interest rates remaining high and a lack of material on the European side.

There was a small recovery in the European hour, but from late London onwards, the selling intensified again and the market was soft throughout.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time started with a struggle for direction, continuing the trend of the previous day.

In the European time, the return was slow, and the market slowly moved downwards, with the upside being held back.

Selling was further intensified in US hours, with the market closing at a lower level.

Background and materials

Expectations of an early easing of US monetary policy have receded, and the high level of long-term interest rates has provided support for the US dollar.

On the European side, there was limited additional support for the currency due to slowing inflation and weak economic indicators.

Geopolitical uncertainties and cautious stock markets also contributed to risk aversion.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the upside continued to be cut, and it was easy to be aware of a return to the market.

There were signs of a temporary downside near the milestone, but the upside was limited and the market weakened until the end of the day.

Technical note (mid-term).

The rebound phase from the second half of October has paused and the downward trend is beginning to be recognised again.

In the medium term, the focus is likely to be on the attack and defence of the previous low, with a slow return to the market.

impression

The euro remained passive as the dollar continued to dominate amid a lack of clear buying opportunities.

Although there were no sudden factors, the impression is that a gradual downward push is building up.

trade observations

The return was shallow, and the day felt more like a return sale than a push sale.

The rebound around the milestone was also weak and directional entries required caution.

checklist

Have you checked for important indicators and key figures' statements?

Have you examined the price movements and reactions around the milestones?

Have you reviewed the risk and tolerance of holding positions?

review

Returns were limited against the backdrop of a tighter fiscal stance and the prospect of interest rate cuts, and the market was conscious of the downward trend.

summary

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer mentioned the possibility of tax rises to restore public finances, which raised awareness of the impact on the economy.

Increased expectations of a rate cut and the resilience of the US dollar also restrained the upward movement of the pound.

From the European hour onwards, there were limited attempts at a return, and the market closed on a weak note.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time saw price movements lacking a sense of direction and a wait-and-see attitude continued.

Return selling prevailed through the European hour, and the downward trend gradually strengthened.

Buying back was limited even in New York, and the market closed on a softer note.

Background and materials

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer has indicated that he will prioritise fiscal consolidation, and the market has become increasingly concerned about a slowdown in consumption due to higher taxes.

The currency was weighed down by a slowdown in UK business confidence indicators and the emergence of interest rate cut speculation.

In the US, the relative stability of the dollar was maintained, with clear differences in strength between currencies.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the momentum of the return was weak and upside resistance was perceived.

Strong selling pressure around the milestones and the dominance of return selling over push-back selling was noticeable.

The short-term moving averages remained downwards, and even though they rebounded, there was still pressure to return to the market.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the adjustment from the highs continued, confirming the shallowness of the return.

The development is testing a key support zone, and some are wary of a downwards slide.

The focus is on whether or not the next low can be renewed to determine the medium-term trend.

impression

Market attention is increasingly focused on the intersection of fiscal and monetary policy, and the influence of fundamentals is increasing.

Although short-term buy-backs are coming in, we feel that material support is scarce and caution is needed.

A careful attitude to checking reactions at each milestone is required, rather than a sense of direction.

trade observations

The predominant trend was to sell on the return, and we felt there was a risk in easy contrarianism.

In phases where there is an awareness of material weight, the need to narrow down the timing of entry, even in the short term, is felt.

Decisions based on position and time period accuracy rather than price range were effective.

checklist

Have you checked the content of statements related to fiscal and monetary policy?

Have the positions of the main support and resistance zones been updated?

Have you grasped the flow of the European and New York hours and the change in the terrain?

review

The return remained sluggish and soft due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's unchanged policy and a stronger US dollar.

summary

Although the RBA remained cautious about cutting interest rates, the Australian dollar was pressured by the strengthening of the US dollar as expectations of a US rate cut receded.

The Australian dollar continued to be restrained on the upside due to a combination of global risk aversion.

The return phase was limited and the market closed on a weak note throughout.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, selling continued the previous day's trend.

There was a lack of buying material after European hours and the return remained shallow.

The market remained conscious of the downward direction until the end of the New York session and closed at a lower level.

Background and materials

The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged and maintained a cautious stance, keeping a close eye on inflation trends.

In the US, the US dollar was predominantly bought on the back of receding expectations of interest rate cuts, and speculation about interest rate differentials weighed on the Australian dollar.

Weakness in equity markets and a mood of risk aversion also contributed to a lack of widespread buying into resource-based currencies.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market fell below the milestone and the return of the market became more conscious.

The market remained below the moving average line, indicating a heavy upside.

The oscillator was close to oversold but with limited improvement.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the downward trend continues and the trend towards lower highs continues.

It has remained in front of an important support zone and the maintenance of this level is in focus.

The shape of the market is such that even if it rebounds, it is likely to be under pressure to return to the market.

impression

Despite the material available, reactions were limited and the market's caution was impressive.

It is difficult to buy risk assets as a whole, and the Australian dollar seems to have lacked direction in this trend.

The impression is that we are still waiting for clues rather than a major trend shift.

trade observations

The return was shallow and a sell-dominated ground was perceived throughout the day.

Forced contrarianism can easily work against you, and we were reminded of the importance of taking positions in line with the flow.

It seems that the decision to intervene with a pause for gains or a wait-and-see approach near the milestone was effective.

checklist

Check the attack and defence around key supports

Continually check US interest rate trends and the strength of the dollar

Check for continuity of risk-off factors and changes in market sentiment