Market summary

US interest rates remain high, while in Europe, the outlook for monetary policy remains uncertain due to slowing inflation and concerns about an economic slowdown.

The previous day was a day of lacklustre material, with no clear direction in either Europe or the US, and the price range was narrow.

Today, with Japan closed for the holiday, liquidity is likely to be lower and the US market is just after the shift to winter time, making it difficult to read participants' movements.

US indicators and US interest rate developments tend to spill over into European currencies, making direction more dependent on external factors.

Assumed range

Around the first half of 1.06 to the first half of 1.07.

The environment lacks decisiveness on both the upside and downside, and assumes an environment of mixed returns and pushes.

Note that volatility may increase depending on US interest rates and stock market movements.

tactics

The basic principle is range rotation.

The focus is on short-term swings, with an eye on both return and pushback.

Do not follow sudden price movements too closely and give priority to confirming reversals.

trigger

The upside is to be judged on whether the 1.07 level is established.

On the downside, it will be interesting to see if the 1.06 break remains.

Note the time of day when changes in the US ISM and US interest rates can affect the overall flow of European currencies.

override condition

A clear break above the 1.07 mid-range would break the assumption of a return.

If the price continues to fall below the first half of 1.06, the range assumption will be revised.

Tactics are also reconsidered in the event of widening spreads or continuous long legs.

risk event

US ISM Manufacturing Index.

Adjusting positions ahead of the US jobs report later in the week.

Sudden headline risk from statements by key figures and interest rate movements.

position management

Position sizes should be set more conservatively than usual.

Set the profit margin short, and be aware of early handing in if there is a sign of a reversal.

Losses are executed mechanically, with a margin outside the expected range.

checklist

Movements in US interest rates and the dollar index.

Directionality of major stock indices and the strength of risk appetite.

Changes in liquidity and spreads in European and US time.

Market summary

In a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the US indices, the previous day was dominated by selling and the trend remained at a low level.

Eurozone economic indicators provide only limited support, with the main focus on monetary policy observations on the dollar side.

Although there are signs of a bottoming out, the momentum of the return is weak and lacks direction.

Assumed range

The downside is expected to be near the psychological node, while the upside is expected to be back to the recent highs.

Until there is clear material, the outlook is for mainly swings within the range.

Be prepared for a flow shift in the US time zone if necessary.

tactics

While the basis is to return to the market, short-term buy-backs are also considered if the downward trend continues.

Avoid excessive positioning and use range rotation if the direction is not clear.

The emphasis is on flow changes between European and US hours.

trigger

The results of the US ISM manufacturing index and the immediate reaction to the release are the initial decision-making factors.

Downwards, the policy is reviewed with a break below the previous day's low and upwards with a new return high.

European indicators and key figures' statements would confirm this as a short-term volatile factor.

override condition

If the market continues to make clear lows, the return dominance will be broken.

Conversely, if the high is exceeded, reset the lower line once and return to flat.

If volume or price movements are extremely thin, do not rush to judgement and choose to wait and see.

risk event

US ISM manufacturing index, US ADP employment report, US employment statistics later in the week.

European indicators such as Eurozone retail sales could also trigger a market turnaround.

As US markets return to normal hours, note the change in liquidity and the different perceptions of trading hours.

position management

Position sizes are kept lower than usual to provide extra capacity for sudden fluctuations.

Use the upper and lower end of the range as a basis for profit-taking and avoid going too deep.

The policy is to mechanically execute a stop-loss when a milestone has been clearly broken.

checklist

Confirmation of US ISM release time and initial market reaction.

Understand whether the previous day's low or return high has been renewed or not

Note the trading hours of the US markets after the end of daylight saving time.

Market summary

With the US dollar trend in mind ahead of US business confidence indicators, there is still a sense of caution ahead of the UK monetary policy meeting later in the week.

Buying back from the previous day's downside test and limited downward momentum despite lack of direction.

US market trading hours have returned to normal, a situation that requires caution as liquidity varies depending on the time of day.

Assumed range

Around late 1.31 - early 1.32

To the downside, be aware of whether or not there is a downside near the recent lows.

The upward direction is based on last week's return highs.

tactics

Market based on selling on the return, but with room for buying on the downside

Rotate in the short term, watching for rebound and stall within the range.

Avoid unreasonable follow-up and focus on slowing price movements and signs of reversal.

trigger

Consider continuation of upward momentum if a clear break above the 1.32s is achieved.

A move below the 1.31 level would lead to a predominant selling trend.

US ISM manufacturing and price movements after the start of European hours are the initial decision-making factors.

override condition

If the price settles above the mid-1.32s without a new low

If the price remains quiet and directionless regardless of the time of day

When positions are largely unwound due to speculation contrary to policy expectations

risk event

US ISM manufacturing index

UK monetary policy meeting later in the week.

Statements by key central bank officials and US interest rate developments.

position management

Lot sizes should be kept lower than usual, and new lots should be opened cautiously before and after the index.

Interest gains are made in stages at the upper and lower bounds of the range and the most recent return/push criteria.

Losses are dealt with quickly when a milestone is clearly crossed.

checklist

1.31 Is support for the units maintained?

Dollar reaction after the US ISM and the relative strength of the British pound

Market position tilts towards UK policy events later in the week

Market summary

The Australian dollar continues to test the downside but remain resilient ahead of the Australian Central Bank meeting.

With the shift to normal hours in the US, the release of indicators and changes in trading hours can easily bias price movements from one time zone to another.

The direction of the market is difficult to determine as we await indicators and policies from both Australia and the US, and the market is likely to swing up and down in the short term.

Assumed range

Around 0.6480-0.6560.

While there is evidence of a willingness to buy in the downwards direction, the impression is that we are waiting for the right material to make a significant return.

Due to the environment in which it is difficult to find a clear direction, it is assumed that the market will remain within a range.

tactics

The basic stance is to prioritise push-buying, but be aware of gains at the upper end of the range.

Keep positions light until the Australian Central Bank announcement and avoid following the index too deeply until the post-index direction is seen.

It is advisable to participate in sizes that can tolerate temporary reversals in case of sudden fluctuations.

trigger

Consider following the upward direction if it clearly exceeds the 0.6560 area.

On the downside, a change of flow below 0.6480 should be noted and the push-back strategy should be reviewed.

Momentary volatility should be noted during the time of the Bank of Australia policy rate announcement and the US ISM manufacturing index release.

override condition

Once below 0.6460, we will withdraw from the buy line and consider switching back to a return to sell.

If the Bank of Australia statement shows a hawkish retreat or weak economic assessment, a push-back strategy is less likely to be established.

Even if US indicators strengthen dollar buying, it will be difficult to continue at the upper end of the assumed range.

risk event

Bank of Australia Policy Rate and Statement.

US ISM manufacturing index and subsequent US interest rate trends.

Dollar-led movement due to US employment-related indicators in the second half of the week.

position management

Immediately before an index, open positions are reduced and then rebuilt after seeing the results.

The profit target is assumed to be near the mid to upper end of the range and the loss target is assumed to be clearly below 0.6460.

The basic policy is to keep position sizes smaller than normal during periods of increased volatility.

checklist

The Bank of Australia's policy decisions and statements.

US index release times and market reaction.

Changes in price movements and liquidity over the Asia-New York time period.

review

From Tokyo to Europe, the market lacked a sense of direction, and although there was a temporary sell-off of the dollar after the US index, it was bought back, resulting in generally calm price movements.

summary

No major trends were generated amidst a continued sense of caution about US monetary policy, but also an awareness of the accommodative stance on the Japanese side.

The day was marked by limited price movements, despite ups and downs, and a sense of a wait-and-see attitude on the part of participants.

The market remained directionless, with a mix of dollar buying and adjustment selling.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours were small due to a lack of material, and the market remained in a range.

European hours were similarly limited in terms of price range, with no clear buying or selling momentum.

Although there was a reaction immediately after the US economic indicators, a move back to the original level soon prevailed.

Background and materials

In the US, uncertainty about monetary policy remained and it was difficult to determine the timing of interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the Japanese monetary environment remained accommodative and interest rate differentials continued to support the dollar.

Geopolitical risks and a calmer stock market also limited the buying of the yen as a safe asset.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the market continued to hover at high levels, with the upside being recognised but not broken through.

The market continued to hover around the moving average line, and the push-back and sell-back continued.

The oscillator indicators showed limited signs of overheating and a small momentum bias.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the momentum is slowing, although it is still on an upward trend.

The highs have paused and the price has entered an adjustmental price zone between the milestones.

Key support lines have held and no clear turnaround signs have been seen.

impression

The impression was that the market as a whole remained cautious, as it remained unbiased in one direction.

With limited material, participants' attention seems to be focused on upcoming US economic indicators and key figures' statements.

The market continued to trade under low volatility and was dominated by short-term forces.

trade observations

Entries were mainly made within the range, and the scene was one where forced following was to be avoided.

It was difficult to see the direction and many decisions were made to keep position holding times short.

It was a day of limited swings and a day of low-risk trading.

checklist

Have you checked the price movement characteristics during material shortages?

Are you aware of the difference between short- and medium-term trends?

Recorded reactions and returns before and after the release of the indicator?

review

It fell during the European hour and fell below the previous day's low, but then converged slightly after the US index, interspersed with a temporary rebound.

summary

Overall, there was a lack of direction, with a mixture of return selling and push-buying.

There was a swing in the dollar before and after the US index, but it was weakly sustained, and prices settled down towards the end of the day.

The lack of strong material suggests that the market is searching for its next decision.

Today's price movements

Asian hours were in a narrow range, with a slight selling trend prevailing after the start of European hours.

Although the market fell further in early US hours, it was bought back after the index and the decline was reduced.

Towards the end of the day, the market lacked momentum both up and down and closed with limited returns.

Background and materials

Ahead of US economic indicators, dollar buying was perceived as predominant amid a lack of direction.

Cautious views on the European economy and lower European bond yields also weighed on the euro.

US interest rates remained high and there was some scattered risk-averse demand for dollars.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The highs and lows continued to be cut, and the upward pressure was felt.

The mid-1.15s could easily act as a guide for a return, and the psychological milestone was also close enough to lack momentum for a break above.

The market remained below the short-term moving average, and even during the rebound phase, the market was noticeably pushed back.

Technical note (mid-term).

The medium-term weakening trend continues, but the broad picture remains in a firmer zone.

Whether the recovery of the 1.16 level will take hold is seen as a key factor in determining the medium-term direction of the market.

The weekly trend is seen as being within the range of adjustment and has not led to any extreme movements.

impression

While there is a lack of major material, there has been a certain amount of movement to test the ups and downs.

There is a strong wait-and-see attitude waiting for the next event, and the impression is that many participants are maintaining a short-term stance.

Volatility is suppressed and the market continues to be difficult to price.

trade observations

It was a difficult day for a clear sense of direction, with room for both return and pushback.

The immediate reaction to the indicator was temporary, and there seemed to be some shaking when it was followed.

My impression is that the attitude of not forcing a direction and only targeting situations where a price range emerged was effective.

checklist

Reaction of interest rates to the results of US economic indicators.

Changes in European economic indicators and market sentiment

Developments in major stock indices and bond markets

review

From Tokyo to Europe, the wait-and-see phase continued, and although the pound was temporarily bought after the US indices, it then went back and forth and settled into a small price change.

summary

There were long periods of lack of direction and limited amplitude across the US indices.

While there were signs of improvement in UK economic indicators, fiscal uncertainty was a factor limiting the upside.

The US dollar remained generally resilient and did not lead to any accelerated movements, but remained calm during the day.

Today's price movements

Asian time remained in a narrow range amid material difficulties.

There was no major direction in European hours, with US indicators leading to a temporary tilt towards selling the dollar.

The price then returned and eventually closed on a go-and-go basis.

Background and materials

In the UK, improved manufacturing-related data was reported, but the response was limited due to doubts about sustainability.

Statements on fiscal policy and a sense of caution about tax burdens were a factor in restraining the upward movement of the pound.

On the US side, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset remained supportive, and was unlikely to lead to aggressive dollar selling.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Although there was a temporary buy-back, the upside was held back by a return to the market.

Direction was difficult to see, as the market continued to attack and defend around the major moving averages.

On the short timeframe, the trend was a mixture of lower highs and lower lows, which did not lead to a clear trend.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the upward momentum is slowing and the pound is becoming slightly more aware of its weight.

The inability to make recent highs has led some to be wary of a turn in the trend.

On the other hand, lower prices are also supported at certain levels and are within a firmer range.

impression

With a lack of direction, it was a day when reactions to materials tended to be transient.

With limited upward and downward price ranges, the impression was that risk management was prioritised over excessive expectations.

In an environment where momentum is difficult to build, we felt the need to broaden our perspective and check both fundamental and technical aspects.

trade observations

Price movements were difficult to extend, and careful decisions were required to secure short-term gains.

A move to ride the reaction after the US index was possible, but the fast return made it difficult to follow deeply.

It was important to be flexible and aware of milestones and indicator releases, rather than relying on momentum.

checklist

Have you checked key economic indicators and scheduled government statements?

Do you have a clear understanding of the upper resistance zone and lower support zone?

Are position sizes and stop-loss levels set appropriately?

review

The Tokyo time was dominated by buying, but from the European time onwards, the trend was towards selling, and in the New York time, after testing the lows temporarily, the market was bought back and the downside was narrowed.

summary

A tug-of-war between receding expectations of a rate cut in Australia and high interest rates in the US continued, with little sense of direction.

Although there were some downside testing phases, buy-backs were made towards the end of the day, and a certain degree of support was perceived.

No clear trend was reached and the market remained in a wait-and-see mode for the next material.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, buyers bought from the lows and were aware of a test to the upside.

In Europe, the flow was tilted to the downwards as the dollar was predominantly bought.

In New York, after a further downwards push, the market was bought back and the price closed back up.

Background and materials

The Australian dollar was underpinned by the growing expectation that monetary easing in Australia will be postponed for the time being

Meanwhile, in the US, the high-interest-rate environment is being recognised, and dollar-buying pressure remains strong.

Slowing growth in Australian household spending and uncertainty about the global economy also contributed to cautious investor sentiment.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around 0.6510 acted as a conscious lower bound, and a rebound was seen on a break below this level

The upside remained sluggish around 0.6570 and the market remained range-bound in the short term.

Short-term moving averages are flat and momentum is limited

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the pair has failed to recover the 0.6600 level and is continuing to sell back to the market

The lower price has been tested multiple times but has not been broken, and resilience is coexistent.

A clear move above the upside resistance is required to determine direction.

impression

Despite the material-by-material reactions, the overall trend is still hard to define, and the impression is that participants remain cautious.

Supply-demand bias is small and there is a strong air of waiting for the next monetary policy or indicator

It is felt that this is a phase where price movement habits and confirmation of support and weight are prioritised over active following.

trade observations

There was some movement to capture short-term reactions to index releases and key figures' statements, but the follow-up price range was limited.

Even if chasing downwards, a rebound is likely to occur near support, and caution was required in selling back.

Positions were not held for too long, and profit-taking and withdrawal decisions had to be made frequently.

checklist

Did you see a reaction near key support?

Are you aware of Australian and US monetary policy-related statements and indicators?

Are you aware of the risks of trading in non-trending phases?