Market summary

The previous day, the Bank of Japan meeting passed without incident, and the situation was conscious of a trend in the direction of a weaker yen.

The US dollar continues to be a strong buyer against a backdrop of high US interest rates.

Today's schedule is likely to be intersected by flows, including rebalancing, as the weekend and the end of the month coincide.

The development is unlikely to be biased in one direction, with the balance between upward pressure and adjustment pressure in focus.

Assumed range

Lower range around the previous day's low and upper range to the recent highs.

Likely to be linked to long-term US interest rates and stock price movements, with gentle ups and downs expected throughout the day.

In the absence of major indicators and key figures' statements, a calm transition is likely

tactics

Short-term push-back dominance, but flexible, paying attention to month-end flows

Prioritise gains around milestones and be prepared to follow entries sparingly.

In a move to test the upper limit of the range, there is room to consider a return sale after confirming the rebound.

trigger

Focus on US interest rate fluctuations and month-end adjustments by New Yorkers during the overseas time zone.

Above the top is if an over-market move is confirmed; below the top is if selling pressure in early Europe is the key.

Tokyo time is dominated by real demand flows and direction is likely to be limited.

override condition

If the milestone is clearly below and there is no buy-back reaction

A sharp fall in US interest rates and a shift to a more favourable dollar selling ground.

When unexpected position unwinding proceeds due to month-end flows

risk event

US economic indicators (e.g. employment-related, inflation indicators)

Comments by the Government and the Bank of Japan on exchange rate and price trends.

Impact of weekend and month-end specific cash flows and hedging adjustments

position management

Enter new entries in small lots and refrain from doing so during periods of low liquidity.

Take profits in stages before the milestone and avoid overextension.

Losses are only determined after a clear confirmation of the most recent support/resistance breakdown.

checklist

Check US long-term interest rates and stock market direction from time to time.

Watch price movements in the European hour and rebalancing trends in the New York hour.

Check for statements from Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials and observations of intervention.

Market summary

The previous day, the euro was under pressure as the dollar was predominantly bought against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates.

The ECB Council meeting confirmed that interest rates would remain unchanged, and the lack of surprises was perceived as a material outflow

With the weekend and the end of the month coinciding, flows related to actual demand and rebalancing are likely to influence the market.

Difficult to establish a sense of direction, and the ground is likely to remain firmer in the short term.

Assumed range

Lower limit near the previous day's low, upper limit near the recent return high.

Narrow price range mainly expected against a backdrop of US interest rates and stock market trends

Assume traffic until there is a clear breakthrough material.

tactics

Basic policy is to focus on return sales, but beware of short-term rebound.

Buybacks are more likely to occur at lower prices, and a cautious response rather than following the momentum.

Prepare for sudden changes before and after the release of an index, and enter in stages.

trigger

US PCE deflator results and US Treasury yields are key in the short term.

Beware of buy-backs in the European hours and flow diversions in the New York hours.

Room for short-term adjustment if the milestone is clearly exceeded, and room for renewed selling pressure if it is below.

override condition

Temporarily withdraw the return policy if the support zone is maintained and the rebound trend strengthens

If US interest rates fall back and the dollar is predominantly sold

Priority given to adjusting positions if transitory movements due to flow factors are followed too closely

risk event

US PCE deflator published.

Media coverage of key figures' statements and monetary policy.

Sudden flows due to month-end and weekend position adjustments

position management

Keep position size small and consider increasing or decreasing it after the event passes

Profit-taking is carried out in instalments before the milestone, while loss-taking is determined by the most recent upper and lower limits.

Limit leverage and limit risk during periods of increased volatility

checklist

Check reaction to US PCE data and interest rates.

Observe whether or not the euro is bought back in European time.

Pay attention to rebalancing and month-end flows of fund forces.

Market summary

The previous day, the pound tested the downside as US interest rates rose and the US dollar was bought

A day of dollar-driven price action with scant material in the UK

With the weekend and the end of the month coinciding, a phase where flows are likely to increase due to actual demand and rebalancing.

An environment where direction is difficult to find and price movements are likely to be sporadic in the short term.

Assumed range

The lower limit is the previous day's low area and the upper limit is around the recent return high.

US interest rates and stock market movements are expected to influence the swing within the range.

Price movements are likely to be limited due to major events ahead

tactics

Basic policy is to focus on return sales and be cautious about short-term push-backs

Prioritise gains near milestones and avoid going too deep.

Refrain from making new entries during times when liquidity is likely to be low, and move only after checking for a reaction.

trigger

Focus on flow diversion in European hours and price movements before and after the release of US indices.

Upward movement is due to a combination of falling US interest rates and rising equities; downward movement is due to risk-off and continued dollar strength.

Watch out for rebalancing-related fluctuations around the London FIX.

override condition

Temporarily withdraw the return strategy if the price remains lower and the rebound continues

Assume range reversion if US interest rates stabilise and dollar buying slows

If the pound-buying ground strengthens clearly in the European hour

risk event

US PCE deflator published.

Reports on UK monetary policy-related statements and next week's Central Bank meeting.

Month-end and weekend-specific fund transfers and hedging adjustments

position management

Lot size should be small and consider rebuilding after the event.

Profit-taking is split before the milestone, and loss-taking is executed when the recent upper or lower limit is clearly below the upper or lower limit.

Reduce open interest and limit risk when volatility rises

checklist

Confirmation of movement in the US dollar index and US interest rates following the release of US PCE data.

Observe flow changes in European time and directional changes around the London FIX

Check for reports and key figures' statements ahead of next week's BoE meeting.

Market summary

The Australian dollar was held back on the previous day as the dollar was predominantly bought against the backdrop of rising US interest rates.

Buying back from the stronger Australian CPI results has run its course and the momentum of the Australian dollar's strength has slowed down.

China-related news and resource price fluctuations weighing on the market at times.

The end of the month and the weekend coincide, and price movements due to flow factors are likely to be noticeable

Assumed range

The lower limit is the previous day's low area and the upper limit is around the recent return high.

Easily linked to the direction of US interest rates and stock markets, with swings mainly in the range.

Calm price movements are expected in the short term ahead of the event

tactics

Basic policy is to focus on return sales and take a cautious approach to any short-term rebound.

When targeting a push, be prepared to confirm the momentum and time frame of the rebound before entering.

Do not follow noisy price movements before and after an event, and prioritise wait-and-see until a sense of direction emerges.

trigger

US interest rate trends and the results of the US PCE deflator will determine the continuation of dollar buying.

Changes in the Chinese market and resource prices are also a short-term trigger.

Wary of ups and downs due to month-end flows around the London FIX

override condition

Temporarily withdraw the return strategy if the lower price is maintained and the Australian dollar turns into a dominant buyer.

If US interest rates fall back and the US dollar selling ground strengthens

If positive China-related reports lead to widespread buying of the Australian dollar

risk event

US PCE deflator published.

Officials' statements and monetary policy outlook ahead of the RBA meeting.

Reports on Chinese economy-related statistics and the authorities' policy stance.

position management

Set position size conservatively and increase or decrease after checking post-event direction.

Gains are split before the milestone and losses are set based on the most recent upper and lower limits.

Limit risk by reducing open interest when price movements become violent.

checklist

Check reaction to US PCE data and US interest rates.

Monitor China-related news and resource price developments.

Watch the impact of month-end flows before and after the London FIX.

review

The yen sold off from Tokyo to Europe, but failed to cross the previous day's highs, and in New York, the wait-and-see attitude strengthened and the market lacked a sense of direction.

summary

The dollar remained strong and the yen weak after the passage of the BOJ event, but the upside was limited.

New York time: overall movement was small, with a more wait-and-see attitude towards US interest rate developments.

The end of the month and weekend coincided with adjustments and flow-driven price movements.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time: gradual rise with the yen selling predominant.

European hours stalled after a test of the previous day's highs but failed to break through.

In New York, prices were limited and remained sideways as US long-term interest rates settled.

Background and materials

After the BoJ's confirmation of policy unchanged, there was a lack of additional material and a round of reactions

A pause in the rise in US interest rates has also curbed dollar buying momentum.

There were scattered temporary movements due to month-end rebalancing and real demand flows.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around the previous day's high price is perceived as an upside resistance and falls back

Short-term moving averages remain flat and directionless

While it was easy to buy at the pushpoint, follow-up buying was limited.

Technical note (mid-term).

The dollar continues to strengthen and the yen weakens, but the momentum slows down slightly

Key support is holding and no turnaround in the flow itself has been identified

Differences between US interest rates and policy stance remain supportive in the medium term

impression

The impression is that the major material has run its course and we are now in a period of time where we are looking for the next direction.

The end of the month and weekend factors meant that prices were limited but easily swayed by flows.

trade observations

There was no momentum to the upside, and in the short term, there were some signs of a return to the market

Although there was still a sense of pushback, many were cautious about following suit.

checklist

Check developments in US interest rates and government bond auctions.

Be aware of month-end and weekend flow bias.

Be aware of key support and the previous day's highs

review

A day of lack of direction from Tokyo to Europe, with selling intensifying in New York and closing at lower levels.

summary

Weak price indicators in the eurozone and the perception of an early interest rate cut weighed on the upside.

Dollar buying prevailed after the release of the US inflation indicator, and temporary returns were limited.

Today's price movements

The Tokyo session remained on a wait-and-see basis, with prices remaining in a slight price range.

After the European hour, the market was gradually restrained to the upside and fell further in New York, falling below the previous day's low.

The subsequent downside was not followed by a significant return, and the market closed at a lower level.

Background and materials

Market views on the future of policy rates eased slightly as eurozone inflation indicators fell short of expectations.

US consumer spending and price-related indicators were broadly in line with expectations, and US long-term interest rates were seen to decline, leading to some brief dollar selling.

However, weakness in the euro prevailed and returns were limited.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The downward trend continued on the hourly time frame, and the resistance zone, which is a milestone, was not broken above.

The return after the low was held back around the 200 MA and there was no clear sign of a trend change.

Technical note (mid-term).

The 4-hourly trend of cutting highs and lows continues, and the shape of the market is likely to be conscious of a return to the upside.

On a daily basis, the area around the 20 EMA is perceived as an upside resistance, and downward pressure remains.

impression

It was felt that the market was difficult for buyers to move in, as the momentum did not continue to test the return in both material and chart terms.

On the other hand, there were many phases where it was difficult to get a sense of direction while reacting to each indicator rather than unilateral selling.

trade observations

On the return phase, there was a conscious effort to confirm the selling momentum, but the price range was limited.

In many cases, position management was important, as it was necessary to watch out for a rebound at each milestone, even when chasing lower prices.

checklist

Check for weak returns after key indicators.

Check volume and candlestick shape around milestones.

Continue to monitor interest rate developments in the US and Europe and bond market reactions.

review

Small movements continued from Tokyo to Europe, with selling prevailing in the New York time, and the market was slightly below the previous day's lows.

summary

Although there was a prolonged period of lack of direction, a temporary downward push was made in the New York time.

After testing the downside, buyers returned to the market and the closing price closed with a small return.

Today's price movements

The market was in a wait-and-see attitude in the early stages, as prices remained in a narrow range.

Selling intensified in the New York hour and the market temporarily moved lower, but returned to a recovery trend towards the close.

On a daily basis, small entities with whiskers remained and direction was limited.

Background and materials

The upside was restrained by a slowdown in UK economic growth and a cautious view of public finances.

Meanwhile, on the US side, views on monetary policy were mixed, with the dollar intermittently switching from strength to weakness.

The material itself was not novel and the market was waiting for clues.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The daily shape lacks directionality, with beards on both the upside and downside.

In the short term, a test of the downside is likely to be conscious, while a return after a break below the lows is also confirmed.

The deviation from the moving average is not large and the short-term trend is not clear.

Technical note (mid-term).

In the medium term, the market is still in an adjustment phase from the highs, and there remains a view of a return to the market.

The market continues to attack and defend near key support, and no major trend reversal has been identified.

The market continues to remain within a range, and there is a growing sense of medium-term holding.

impression

A combination of a lack of material and a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the weekend meant that the day lacked positive cues.

It was impressive that although the downward direction was tested, the momentum was limited and did not lean too far in one direction of selling.

The whole market appears to be looking for the next decision-maker.

trade observations

Although there was a follow-up move after seeing a break below the lows, the price movement was difficult for short-term forces as the return was too quick.

The trend direction was difficult to define and unreasonable positions could easily lead to risk.

It seems to me that it would have been more effective to maintain a clear break waiting posture.

checklist

Have you checked the schedule of key indicators and key figures' statements?

Are key support and resistance levels known?

Is position size and risk management unreasonable?

review

Selling was prevalent from Tokyo to Europe, but the previous day's lows were not broken, and in New York, the price movement was directionless and slight.

summary

The resilience of the US dollar and concerns about the Chinese economy weighed on the Australian dollar, which tested the downward direction but failed to break below.

The market was strongly waiting for the next material and it was difficult to get a clear sense of direction throughout the day.

Today's price movements

The Australian dollar was predominantly sold early in Tokyo and tested the downward direction.

In Europe, the market stopped falling near the previous day's lows, followed by a mixture of return sales and buy-backs.

In New York, the price range was limited while keeping an eye on US interest rates and stock market trends.

Background and materials

The prospect of higher US interest rates and the resilience of the US dollar restrained the Australian dollar's upward movement.

Uncertainty over Chinese economic indicators and resource prices dampened Australian dollar buying momentum.

In Australia, despite a slight recession in interest rate cuts, concerns about an economic slowdown remained a concern.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around the previous day's low was recognised as support, and the trend was rebounding as it could not be clearly broken.

The upside was heavy around the short-term moving average and the return high, with scattered returns.

Volatility is shrinking and remains within a range in the short term.

Technical note (mid-term).

The market has remained within a certain range for several weeks and continues to lack direction.

The medium-term moving averages have remained sideways and no clear signs of a trend change have been seen.

The next focus of market attention will be on whether to exit the upper or lower end of the range.

impression

The reaction to the material was slow, giving the impression that the market was waiting for the next decision.

Although lacking a sense of direction, we feel it is worth noting that there is an awareness of the firmness of the downside.

trade observations

In the short term, there were many occasions when the market did not extend either up or down, and there was an awareness of trading with a limited price range.

The day was dominated by sellers closing before support and small buybacks.

checklist

Are key supports maintained?

Are there any changes in US interest rates or the US dollar index?

Are there any new China-related indicators or risk trends?