Market summary

On the previous day, the yen was bought by the US Treasury Secretary during the Tokyo time, but the dollar was then bought by the FOMC, which was aware of the hawkish content of the subsequent FOMC meeting.

US interest rates remained on a high note, and the dollar was temporarily volatile

With the Bank of Japan's policy rate announcement today, it is easy to see a phase of position adjustment ahead of the event.

Assumed range

The upside is expected to be around ¥153 and the downside around the mid ¥151 range.

The event results may take the range out of range in the short term, and the market should be prepared for an increase in price range.

tactics

Buy at the drop, but take a conservative approach to new positions before the event.

Assume increased volatility and be cautious not to get caught up in sudden price movements immediately after an index release.

Consider short-term follow-up if the direction becomes clear after the announcement.

trigger

Focus on the Bank of Japan's unchanged policy rate and the content of the statement.

If monetary easing is maintained, the dollar is likely to react in a buying direction, and conversely, if there are indications of a correction, the yen is likely to prevail.

The period from after noon in Tokyo to early Europe is a time when market reactions are likely to expand.

override condition

Pause the push-buy strategy if a clear move below ¥151 is observed.

Caution should also be exercised in the event of a sharp fall in US interest rates or an increase in risk-averse buying of the yen as a result of falling stock prices.

risk event

BOJ policy rate and Governor Ueda's press conference

US PCE deflator and preliminary GDP figures

Long-term interest rate trends and stock market fluctuations in major countries

position management

Keep position size to less than half the normal size and rebuild after price movements following an announcement.

Take profits in small increments and cut losses slightly below recent lows thoroughly.

Diversify open interest and shift entry timing during high volatility phases.

checklist

Confirmation of the results of the BoJ meeting and changes in the wording of the statement.

Check US interest rates and the dollar index.

Observe price movements and market direction from Tokyo noon to early Europe.

Market summary

The day before, the FOMC meeting continued to lack direction, but after the announcement, the US dollar was perceived as hawkish, which strengthened dollar buying.

The euro was temporarily pushed lower, and the overall trend was predominantly dollar-driven.

Cautious trading, including position adjustments, is expected today ahead of the ECB Governing Council meeting and Lagarde's press conference.

Assumed range

The upside is expected to be around 1.17 and the downside in the low 1.15s.

Ahead of important events, price movements are limited but can easily swing either upwards or downwards.

tactics

Based on a range rotation, with a moderate approach to new construction prior to events.

In the short term, use return and push-buy near milestones

Priority is given to lightness of position until the announcements have been made.

trigger

Potential for a euro buyback if the tone of the ECB policy rate announcement and the President's press conference tends towards hawkishness

On the other hand, if the unchanged stance and cautious guidance is confirmed, dollar buying is likely to resume

Note increased volatility from the European afternoon into the New York hours.

override condition

A clear break above 1.17 would pause the return scenario.

Conversely, note that the adjustment phase may further intensify if the market falls below the mid-1.15s.

risk event

ECB Governing Council and President Lagarde's press conference

Preliminary Eurozone HICP figures

US PCE deflator and preliminary GDP figures

position management

Position size is kept to half the normal size, with a post-event rebuilding attitude.

Priority for gains is given to short-term price ranges, while losses are set slightly outside the recent highs and lows.

Avoid new entries immediately before the event and focus on confirming direction after the announcement.

checklist

ECB press conference confirms inflation assessment and change in policy stance

Check US interest rate trends and the US dollar index.

Compare the results of Eurozone inflation indicators with those of US indicators to determine their strength and weakness.

Market summary

The previous day, the pound was sold predominantly during European hours and the dollar was bought against the backdrop of the hawkish attitude of the US monetary authorities.

On the UK side, the pound was slow to return to the market due to a slowdown in inflation and slowing growth.

US interest rates remain high after the FOMC meeting and the dollar is perceived to be resilient in the short term

Assumed range

The upside is expected to be around the 1.27 level and the downside around 1.25.

The situation is likely to be wait-and-see ahead of the US indices, with many expecting the market to remain in a range.

tactics

Based on return sales, but also considering short-term buy-backs at lower prices

Position lightly as it is difficult to establish a sense of direction.

Technical indicators are in neutral territory, so follow-up after the break is effective

trigger

Beware of any resumption of dollar buying following the US GDP and PCE deflator results.

A clear break below the mid-1.25s could increase downward pressure

Key figures' statements in the European hour and flows in early New York determine short-term direction.

override condition

A clear break above the 1.27 level would pause the return scenario.

Also review if UK interest rates rise or US rates fall, leading to stronger buying of the pound

risk event

US GDP preliminary report and PCE deflator

UK consumption-related indicators and key figures

Changes in risk appetite due to US Treasury bond auctions and stock market developments

position management

Enter with less than half the normal size and keep open interest light before and after the indicator.

Interest gains are made in small increments of a few dozen pips in the short term.

Stop-losses are set at levels slightly above recent highs and respond mechanically in the event of sudden changes.

checklist

Check US interest rates and the dollar index.

Check for any changes in what Bank of England officials say.

Reconfirm flow turning points (e.g. London FIX) in the European - New York hours.

Market summary

On the previous day, Australian dollar buying prevailed from Tokyo to European hours, but the upside was limited.

The Australian dollar softened after the announcement as the FOMC meeting was widely seen as a sign that the US monetary authorities maintained their tightening stance and the dollar was bought.

On the Australian side, the lack of growth in resource prices and developments in the Chinese economy have weighed on the market, and the market continues to lack direction.

Assumed range

The upside is expected to be around the 0.66 level and the downside around the 0.64 level.

Trading is likely to be focused on the range, keeping a close eye on US economic indicators and interest rate trends.

tactics

Buy on the basis of a push-back, but also consider a short-term return to the market if the upside is slow.

Technical indicators are in neutral territory, restricting trading size in directionless terrain

Prioritise a wait-and-see approach during Asian hours and check the trend from Europe onwards before responding.

trigger

A stronger-than-expected US PCE deflator and preliminary GDP figures are likely to strengthen the dollar buying phase.

Conversely, if US interest rates fall and risk appetite recovers, watch out for moves to buy back the Australian dollar.

Aware of the timing of increased liquidity from Asian afternoon to New York time.

override condition

If the 0.64 level is clearly broken down, the assumption of push-back is suspended.

Strategy also needs to be reviewed if the US dollar-led rally stalls and the Australian dollar strengthens its self-sustaining rebound.

risk event

US PCE deflator and preliminary GDP report

China's manufacturing PMI.

Preliminary Australian trade balance and statements from RBA officials.

position management

Position size is about half the normal size, mainly for short-term trades.

Profit-taking is carried out frequently in units of tens of pips.

Set stop-losses slightly below recent lows and keep open interest light before index releases.

checklist

Check US interest rates and the dollar index.

Check direction of Chinese PMIs and resource prices.

Watch for statements from Australian and US dignitaries and market reactions.

review

A day of yen selling and dollar buying dominance following the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the yen unchanged.

summary

The Tokyo time was mainly a wait-and-see affair, but from Europe onwards there was a clear tilt towards a weaker yen.

Flow dominated by interest rate differentials as BoJ meeting confirms no change in policy

In New York, the rise in US long-term interest rates also coincided with a further strengthening of dollar buying.

Today's price movements

Dollar buying accelerates from European hours and moves above short-term milestones

On the other hand, some profit-taking was seen at the high end of the range, with prices settling down somewhat towards the end of the day.

Overall, the market closed on a firm downwards trend and maintained an upward trend.

Background and materials

BOJ leaves monetary policy unchanged and statement is dovish, in line with market expectations

Despite the Tokyo CPI showing a high level, the yen's depreciation pressure prevails without a change in policy.

In the US, dollar buying was led by positional adjustments ahead of the PCE

Technical memorandum (short term)

The upside is conscious in the recent highs and the momentum of the break is being tested.

On the downside, the European time push zone acts as support

Short-term moving averages are up and the buy-dominant trend continues

Technical note (mid-term).

On a weekly basis, the range continues to hover near the upper end of the range, with limited directionality.

The main support zone is maintained and the medium-term trend is poised to maintain the dollar's strength advantage.

Oscillators remain slightly elevated, but overheating is still limited

impression

Despite signs of calm after the passage of the policy event, the yen selling trend seems to be persistent.

A phase in which short-term direction is likely to change depending on US interest rates and statements by foreign exchange authorities.

Markets are moving to search for direction until the next event.

trade observations

Cautiousness is required on the upside, while there is a strong appetite for buying at the pushpoint.

A mix of short-term gains and the replacement of new positions.

Be aware that price movements are more likely to be violent during times of reduced liquidity.

checklist

Check US PCE deflator results and interest rate trends.

Check whether foreign exchange authorities and key government officials are speaking.

Understanding the direction of flow through month-end rebalancing

review

The ECB Governing Council left interest rates unchanged and the euro is selling off due to a lack of material

summary

Price movements in Tokyo and early Europe are directionless as they await events.

After the Council meeting, a cautious statement was given and the euro weakened slowly.

In the New York hours, dollar buying strengthened against the backdrop of rising US interest rates, and a search for lower prices prevailed.

Today's price movements

European hours continue to see small movements awaiting announcements, with euro selling progressing after the event passes.

The US dollar firmed up in early New York as US long-term interest rates rose.

The market continued to struggle at the lower end of the market and closed at a lower level.

Background and materials

ECB keeps policy rates unchanged and maintains price and growth forecasts as before

The statement showed a cautious attitude towards the economic slowdown and slowing inflation.

On the US side, dollar buying is slowly progressing, partly due to speculation ahead of the PCE.

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, the return has been restrained and the downward direction is being considered.

Continued attack in the lower support zone, with a risk of interruption.

Short-term moving averages continue to limit upside

Technical note (mid-term).

The weekly range is hovering near the lower end of the range, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

Medium-term trend is flat, but the ground is more likely to be linked to US interest rate trends

Oscillators near oversold levels, leaving room for short-term adjustment

impression

Euro selling calmed down after the ECB event passed, but the momentum of the return was limited.

Strong interest in US interest rates and inflation indicators, and a composition that is likely to continue to be dollar-driven.

The market is in the process of looking for clues to get a sense of the next direction.

trade observations

Cautiousness is needed to follow the lows, despite the short term return trend.

Post-event price movements are converging, and the phase in which you should avoid building unreasonable positions.

Short-term trades focus on price range management in light of reduced volatility

checklist

Check US PCE data release and interest rate reaction.

Check for ECB member statements and follow-up press coverage.

Flows around the London FIX and the impact of month-end adjustments are closely monitored.

review

A day of predominantly selling the pound towards the end of the European hour and buying the dollar against the backdrop of rising US interest rates.

summary

Tokyo hours were directionless, with the pound weakening slowly after entering Europe.

No significant support on the UK side, weighed down by fiscal concerns and a cautious attitude ahead of the Central Bank meeting.

In the New York hours, the dollar continued to buy on the downside as US interest rates rose.

Today's price movements

Return selling prevailed in the European hour, with moves below the milestone seen.

The pound came under downward pressure in the early part of the New York session as the dollar buying trend strengthened.

Returns were limited at the end of the day, although positional adjustments were bought back.

Background and materials

No clear improvement in UK economic indicators and continued awareness of concerns over the fiscal outlook.

Speculation and cautious stance ahead of BoE meeting curbs pound buying

In the US, rising interest rates are poised to support the dollar ahead of PCE data.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Lower prices are supported by recent lows, forming a short term firmer

The upside is conscious of the return highs as a resistance zone and the rebound is limited.

Moving averages remain downwards and continue in a predominantly selling shape

Technical note (mid-term).

Still within a downtrend in the medium term

The focus is on whether the key support zone can be maintained, and if it is breached, downward pressure is likely to intensify.

Momentum is slightly weaker, but oversold sentiment is beginning to emerge.

impression

Cautiousness ahead of the event makes it difficult for the pound to take a clear direction.

The pound is relatively vulnerable to weakness as the dollar continues to lead the way

Market interest is shifting to the BoE meeting and US indices, with the impression that position consolidation was a priority.

trade observations

In the short term, a return-focused strategy is likely to be an easy phase to be aware of.

New positions are safe to take after the event has passed and the direction is confirmed.

Be aware of widening spreads at times of reduced liquidity.

checklist

Check US PCE data release and interest rate trends.

Check for media coverage and key figures' statements before the BOE meeting.

Watch month-end rebalancing flows before and after the London FIX.

review

A day in which buying was ahead in Tokyo time, but from Europe onwards, the return of the dollar was predominant, and in New York time, the dollar was bought.

summary

Buying interest following the release of the Australian CPI has paused, with a sense of material exhaustion weighing on the upside.

The Australian dollar came under downward pressure as the dollar was predominantly bought against the backdrop of rising US interest rates.

The market continued to struggle at the lower end of the day and closed with a lack of directional movement.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time: buying temporarily continues on post-Australian CPI ground.

Return selling prevails in European hours, with the upside restrained around the milestone.

In the New York time, the US dollar turned to a predominant buying trend as people became aware of the rise in US interest rates.

Background and materials

While the stickiness of Australian inflation is confirmed, the RBA's policy stance is widely seen as maintaining the status quo.

Weak Chinese manufacturing PMI results weighed on the Australian dollar, with concerns over external demand.

In the US, high interest rates provide support for the dollar ahead of PCE data the following day.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The upside is restrained near the recent return highs, with short-term return pressure remaining.

The lower price is aware of the previous day's support zone, and the tug-of-war between push-buyers and return sellers continues.

Short-term moving averages are flat and the direction is somewhat dull.

Technical note (mid-term).

Medium-term trend remains near the lower end of the range

Sustained Australian inflation and US interest rate trends are themes that will set the tone for the future.

Oscillators are in neutral territory, with limited overbought and oversold signals

impression

The Australian dollar remains heavy on the upside even after the passage of the inflation index, and is highly dependent on the external environment.

Weak Chinese economic indicators continue to weigh on the Australian dollar and lack resilience in the short term

A day with little sense of direction, with a strong cautious trading stance ahead of the event.

trade observations

In the short term, the main focus is on selling back, but a policy of prioritising gains in the support zone is effective.

Position sizes are kept low as they are easily swayed by pre- and post-event flows

Until there is a clear move above the upper resistance zone, be aware of trading within the range.

checklist

Check reaction to US PCE data and interest rates.

Watch for developments in Chinese indices and resource prices.

Follow up on statements and market observations before the RBA meeting