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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Sep Consumer Price Index (CPI) [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Quarterly consumer prices (CPI), July-September [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Quarterly consumer prices (CPI), July-September [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Sep Pending home sales index [MoM]. | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Sep Pending home sales index [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β β | US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), policy rate announcement after the meeting | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | πΊπΈ America | Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, regular press conference |
Today's Outlook.
On the previous day, the Japanese and US finance ministers met to discuss foreign exchange rate trends, which led to a slight predominance of yen buying. However, there was some buying back at lower levels, and a certain degree of resilience was perceived. Before Tokyo opened, US Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned the BOJ's monetary policy on SNS, which led to increased yen buying. Today, position adjustment is likely to be the main focus ahead of the FOMC policy rate announcement. We would like to look for a direction, paying attention to any upward test of the yen.
The previous day, the market continued to lack a sense of direction from European to US hours, but after a downward push in early New York, it was bought back and closed slightly higher. This momentum may continue, but today, ahead of the FOMC policy rate announcement, preliminary Eurozone GDP figures and the ECB Council meeting the following day, positional adjustments are likely to take centre stage.
The previous day saw the pound sell off sharply due to a combination of lower UK 10-year bond yields and optimism about the US-China summit, plus higher US long-term interest rates. There was some buying back towards the end of the day, but the return was slow and the pair closed below last week's lows. Today, position adjustment is likely to be the main trend ahead of the FOMC policy rate announcement. Today is the phase when we will see whether this trend will pause or whether the downward push will continue.
The previous day, expectations of a US-China summit supported risk appetite and the Australian dollar was a strong buyer against the US dollar. A pause in the rise in US interest rates also provided a tailwind and the market remained firm towards the end of the day. Today, position adjustment is likely to be the main focus ahead of the FOMC policy rate announcement. It remains to be seen whether this momentum will continue today.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Before Tokyo opened, there were some signs of yen buying on the back of US Treasury Secretary Bessent's reference to the BOJ's monetary policy on SNS. During the Tokyo session, the yen was sold off with some holding adjustments, but the overall sense of direction was limited ahead of the FOMC meeting. The view that the US monetary authorities maintained their tightening stance led to stronger dollar buying and a softening of the yen after the announcement.
From Tokyo to European hours, the euro was predominantly sold and the dollar continued to be bought on the back of rising US interest rates, but in the New York hours, the euro was bought back with some adjustment of the market's holdings, and the market was a little more reluctant to move lower. Market attention turned to the FOMC meeting, which was directionless until just before the announcement. As a result, the US monetary authorities were perceived to be tightening their stance, and the euro was weak to the upside as the dollar was predominantly bought.
Selling of the pound was predominant from the beginning of the European session. In the UK, concerns over slowing inflation and economic slowdown weighed on the prospect of a rate cut, while in New York, the FOMC meeting was less active and the pound was pushed lower immediately after the announcement, as the US dollar was the main buyer.
The Australian dollar was predominantly bought from Tokyo to European hours, but upside testing was limited. The Australian dollar was supported by a firming Australian inflation indicator, but was held back by caution about rising US interest rates, while in New York, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed ahead of the FOMC meeting, and after the announcement, the tightening stance of the US monetary authorities was reaffirmed and the dollar was bought more strongly. The Australian dollar was temporarily pushed lower, but remained in a range overall.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day, the yen was predominantly bought by the US and Japanese finance ministers at their meeting to discuss exchange rate trends.
However, the downward pressure was limited by real demand and short-term muscle buying at the lower end of the range.
Calm price movements are expected today ahead of the FOMC meeting, mainly due to position adjustments.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 149.00-150.40.
Hard to get a sense of direction ahead of the FOMC statement, with thick orders both up and down the line.
tactics
Based on range rotation before the event, with a focus on short-term return sales.
Consider push-buying in sharply falling situations, but avoid holding on to positions
trigger
A break above 150.40 could strengthen short-term buying to the upside.
Stops could be rolled in below 149.00 and the yen buying momentum could increase.
Tokyo time: wait-and-see prevails; NY time: focus on FOMC statement (early next morning)
override condition
If the FOMC shows a dovish message and the selling of the dollar accelerates, accompanied by a fall in US interest rates
Conversely, if the statement is more hawkish and the dollar buys more on the back of higher US interest rates, the range scenario will be broken.
risk event
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
US employment cost index
Statements by Bank of Japan officials and comments by foreign exchange authorities.
position management
Position sizes are kept to less than half the normal size to take account of event risk.
The profit target low is near 150.30 and the loss target is below 149.00.
Go as light as possible on the position before the announcement.
checklist
Changes in the wording of the FOMC statement (with or without hints as to the timing of the rate cut).
Watch the reaction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check for statements by foreign exchange authorities and intervention-related reports.
Market summary
The previous day lacked a sense of direction from European to US hours.
After a downward push in early New York, the euro was bought back and closed slightly higher.
Position-adjustment-oriented moves are expected today ahead of the FOMC and preliminary Eurozone GDP figures, and the ECB Council meeting the following day.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.0650-1.0750.
Expect heavy upside and downside as the range is likely to continue to move back and forth before the event.
tactics
In the short term, range rotation is the basic policy, and consider buying at the push point when the market falls sharply.
Lighten positions before the event and prioritise directional confirmation after the index release.
Short-term traders focus on the US interest rate reaction in the NY hour.
trigger
Possible stronger buy-back forces on a break above 1.0750.
Risk of tilting towards dollar buying dominance below 1.0650.
Increased volatility triggered by preliminary Eurozone GDP figures (18:00) and FOMC statement (early next morning)
override condition
If the FOMC shows a dovish message and the dollar sells off rapidly
If eurozone GDP falls far short of expectations and euro selling accelerates on economic concerns
If there is no direction and the range remains narrow, return the strategy to neutral
risk event
Preliminary GDP figures for the euro area (Q3)
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
ECB Council meeting the following day
position management
Position sizes of 50% or less of normal are recommended before the event.
The profit target is around 1.0740 and the loss target is below 1.0650.
Set orders shallow in case of sudden changes after an index announcement.
checklist
Review of preliminary Eurozone GDP results and market reaction.
Watch the FOMC statement and the tone of Chairman Powell's remarks.
Check US interest rate trends and the reaction of the dollar index.
Market summary
The previous day, a combination of lower UK 10-year bond yields and optimism about the US-China summit, plus higher US long-term interest rates, led to a significant sell-off in the pound.
Despite some buying back towards the end of the day, the return was slow and the market closed below last week's low.
Calm price movements are expected today ahead of the FOMC meeting, with a focus on positional adjustments.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.2420-1.2550.
While downside caution remains, the market is also prone to short-term, adjustment buying back in the short term.
tactics
In the short term, the basis is to return to the market, while focusing on range trading prior to the index.
Consider push-buying during sharp declines, but avoid carrying over positions before the event
Direction is expected to emerge mainly after the FOMC announcement.
trigger
Short-term buying momentum likely to strengthen on a break above 1.2550.
Selling may accelerate below 1.2420 and the downward trend may resume.
Watch US interest rate developments and changes in risk appetite from European to US hours.
override condition
If the FOMC shows a dovish message and the dollar is sold off.
If the hawkish stance resurfaces in UK macro indicators and statements
Ease downside caution once technicals fail to clearly break below recent lows
risk event
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
US GDP confirmed and employment-related data.
UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) officials' statements
position management
Position size is kept below 50% of normal due to pre-event risk
Gains are set near 1.2530 and losses are set below 1.2420.
Focus on short-term trading until there is a sense of direction.
checklist
Confirms the tone of the FOMC statement and the Chairman's remarks
Watch the reaction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check the movement of UK bond yields and the stock market's risk appetite.
Market summary
The previous day, expectations of a US-China summit supported risk appetite, and the Australian dollar was a strong buyer against the US dollar.
A pause in the rise in US interest rates also provided a tailwind, and the market remained firm towards the end of the day.
Calm price movements are expected today ahead of the FOMC meeting, mainly due to position adjustments
Assumed range
Assumed range around 0.6500-0.6570.
Profit-taking at higher prices and push-buying at lower prices are likely to continue.
tactics
Basis is to focus on buying at the pushpoint, and respond by checking the direction after the event has passed.
Prioritise short-term rotation rather than building up new positions before the FOMC
Asian time: wait-and-see tone; judge strategy based on price movements in Europe and beyond.
trigger
Possible stronger buying interest on a break above 0.6570.
Risk of a deeper short-term correction below 0.6500.
Watch US interest rate developments and the reaction of the US dollar index.
override condition
If the FOMC is hawkish and dollar buying is rekindled
If risk aversion intensifies due to Australian economic indicators or China-related news
Technical failure to break above recent highs negates the upside scenario once and for all
risk event
FOMC policy rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference
US economic indicators (preliminary GDP and ADP employment figures)
China-related media coverage (stimulus packages and authorities' comments)
position management
Position size should be no more than 50% of normal due to pre-event
The profit target is around 0.6560 and the loss target is below 0.6490.
Short-term trading is the basis until the event passes, then rebuild after confirming the direction of the event.
checklist
Confirms the tone of the FOMC statement and the Chairman's remarks
Watch movements in US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check risk trends in Chinese markets and commodity prices.
AI postcards: today's market
review
Early in the morning, comments by the US Treasury Secretary triggered yen buying, but in Tokyo hours, yen selling prevailed, and after the FOMC meeting, dollar buying strengthened.
summary
The US dollar held firm as US monetary authorities reaffirmed their tightening stance
Meanwhile, on the Japanese side, the yen continued to move slowly in its return as policy change speculation receded.
Markets were dominated by position adjustments, with a view to US interest rates and the BOJ meeting.
Today's price movements
During the Tokyo time, the yen was bought by the Treasury Secretary's comments, after which the dollar/yen rebounded slightly with a consolidation of holdings.
In Europe, a wait-and-see approach to the FOMC was widespread, and dollar buying strengthened after the event passed in New York time.
The yen sold off slightly towards the end of the day on the back of rising US interest rates.
Background and materials
There was a growing expectation that the US monetary authorities would maintain their stance on price controls and would not hasten the pace of interest rate cuts.
US interest rates remained firm and the dollar remained resilient against major currencies
On the Japanese side, the yen was weighed down by a retreat in speculation about policy revisions ahead of the BoJ meeting.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside was heavy at the previous day's highs, while the downside was a short-term support line.
The situation continues to remain within a range that is difficult to find direction in the short term.
The immediate focus will be on whether or not the highs will be reached after the event passes.
Technical note (mid-term).
Medium-term upward trend, but with slowing momentum
The divergence between the main moving averages is narrowing and the possibility of a holding formation is being considered.
Beware of the risk of a wider adjustment if the support is broken below
impression
It was a day of mixed material strength and lack of direction.
The reaction after the FOMC meeting was limited, giving the impression that the market had already factored in a certain amount.
The next major event is shifting to the Governor's remarks after the BoJ meeting
trade observations
Short-term trading was limited, with a strong wait-and-see attitude for the passage of events.
Dollar buying immediately after the FOMC meeting was temporary, with gains being prioritised
There is a lot of position lightening ahead of the weekend and cautious trading continues.
checklist
Check trends in US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check the tone of the Governor's remarks after the BoJ meeting.
Watch for sustained yen buying pressure in early Tokyo hours.
review
The euro was predominantly sold from Tokyo to European hours, and after the FOMC meeting, the euro was bought by the dollar to the upside.
summary
Overall direction was limited during the hours leading up to the FOMC meeting, mainly due to the consolidation of holdings.
The US dollar held firm as the stance of the US monetary authorities was perceived to be tighter.
The euro was also restrained on the upside by a slowdown in prices in the eurozone.
Today's price movements
The euro was sold in the Asian hour and tested the downside in the early European hours
In the New York time, there was a temporary buy-back due to a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the FOMC meeting, but after the announcement, the dollar was once again the predominant currency.
Overall, the day was dominated by reactions to the results from waiting for the event.
Background and materials
US monetary authorities indicated that they would maintain high interest rates, which strengthened dollar buying on interest rate differentials.
Sluggish economic indicators and slowing inflation in the eurozone have affected policy stance.
The recovery in risk appetite was limited and the dollar continued to be favoured as a safe currency.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the trend of predominant return selling continued, and the upside was perceived to be cutting down.
Intermittent buy-backs are also seen near support, confirming the firmness of the downside.
The short-term moving averages have changed sideways, creating a range formation with little sense of direction.
Technical note (mid-term).
In the medium term, the downward trend continues, interspersed with an adjustmental return
Deviations from the major moving averages have narrowed and the post-event reaction is a phase to determine whether the trend will continue or turn.
The environment is still susceptible to return pressure at higher prices
impression
Aggressive trading was discouraged during the FOMC waiting period, with temporary volatility following the announcement
Although the market as a whole continued to be dominated by the dollar, there was also a temporary euro buy-back, depending on the material
The price trend continues to be difficult to get a sense of direction, and attention will be focused on the change in the situation after the event has passed.
trade observations
Position consolidation before the announcement was the main focus, with a noticeable short-term reaction after the event had passed.
The price range was narrow and the impression was that there was a lot of movement prioritising profit-taking.
Lightweight positions were effective in preparing for sudden changes when volatility increased
checklist
Check US interest rates and the US dollar index after the FOMC meeting.
Check the tone of Eurozone inflation indicators and ECB key figures' statements.
Observe whether or not there is a break of the upper and lower limits of the short-term range
review
Selling of the pound was predominant in early Europe, and after the FOMC announcement, the pound was pushed lower by dollar buying.
summary
The pound was slow to return to the market as concerns about slowing inflation and economic slowdown in the UK were raised.
The FOMC meeting confirmed the tightening stance of the US monetary authorities and the dollar remained firm
Markets reaffirmed the interest rate differential between the UK and the US and continued to trade cautiously amid a lack of direction.
Today's price movements
Asian hours started with small movements, with the pound selling predominant after entering Europe.
In New York, a wait-and-see mood prevailed ahead of the FOMC meeting, with dollar buying prevailing after the announcement.
The pound closed slightly lower on the back of higher US interest rates in the closing stages of trading.
Background and materials
In the UK, inflation continued to slow and growth indicators were sluggish, which raised awareness of the prospect of monetary easing.
In the US, monetary authorities maintained a hawkish stance and the dollar was widely bid.
Risk aversion also overlapped, restricting the upward movement of the pound.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the trend of predominant return selling continued, confirming the heavy upward pressure.
There were intermittent buy-backs around the support area, and the price was also bouncing back to the downside.
The major moving averages are trending downwards and there is an appearance of a range formation with no sense of direction.
Technical note (mid-term).
The structure continues to trend downwards in the medium term, and upside is likely to be limited in the return phase.
The divergence from the main moving averages has narrowed and the market continues to hoard energy.
In the medium term, the UK interest rate trend is likely to be a factor influencing trend direction.
impression
Overall, the market was quiet ahead of the FOMC meeting, but after the announcement, the dollar's dominance was reaffirmed.
The pound had limited buying momentum due to perceived fundamental weakness.
Indicators and key figures' statements over the second half of the week are expected to be of interest to the market.
trade observations
Trading was mainly focused on holding pre-FOMC, and was dominated by short-term price-taking.
The unidirectional flow strengthened briefly after the announcement, but gains were quick and reactions were limited.
Overall, participants kept positions light and prioritised risk management.
checklist
Check trends in US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check UK inflation-related data and key BOE officials' statements.
Observed changes in market sentiment after the FOMC
review
The Australian dollar was predominantly bought from Tokyo to the European time, but after the FOMC announcement, the Australian dollar was pushed lower as the dollar strengthened.
summary
The Australian dollar was temporarily supported by resilient Australian inflation indicators
However, the US dollar has turned into a predominant buyer on the view that the US monetary authorities maintained their tightening stance.
Overall, price movements remained in a range while awaiting the event.
Today's price movements
Asian hours were dominated by Australian dollar buying on the back of inflation-related results.
Buying paused in Europe, with upside moves restrained by expectations of higher US interest rates.
In New York, a wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC meeting was widespread, and the Australian dollar was pushed lower by dollar buying after the announcement.
Background and materials
Australian price data was mixed, with a mix of strong and weak data, which raised awareness of speculation about the RBA's policy decisions.
Weaker economic indicators in China have led to a slight retreat in buying into resource-related currencies
Confirmation in the US that interest rates are set to remain high, which has helped to limit the Australian dollar's upward movement.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the pair formed a range around the low 0.66s, confirming the heaviness of the upside.
On the downside, there is buying in the low 0.65s and a certain degree of resilience is also being recognised.
Short-term moving averages remained flat and directionless
Technical note (mid-term).
In the medium term, we are in an adjustment phase from the uptrend, with a predominant return trend continuing.
The divergence from the main moving averages is narrowing and the market is searching for an equilibrium point.
The Australia-US interest rate differential continues to be a medium-term market theme.
impression
The Australian dollar was temporarily bought on inflation indicators, but was led by the dollar after the FOMC passed
It was an easy phase to be aware of the difference in temperature between Australia and the US in terms of fundamentals.
The market environment continues to be difficult to determine the direction of the market, with a strong wait-and-see attitude for the next material.
trade observations
There was limited movement towards buying back in Asian hours, with short-term selling prevailing from Europe onwards.
The Australian dollar was pushed lower by temporary dollar buying momentum immediately after the FOMC meeting.
Overall, the trading was limited to short-term price-taking and low-risk trading.
checklist
Confirmation that the market is factoring in the RBA's next meeting.
Check US interest rate trends and the US dollar index.
Observe changes in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
FX Diary.