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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ America | β | Aug Case-Shiller US house price index [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day saw a pause in the rise in long-term US interest rates and a slowdown in the momentum of dollar buying. Technically, the market has formed a firm top heavy shape and the yen is likely to buy back in. Today is a phase where we need to see where the bottom will consolidate.
The previous day, the eurodollar lacked a sense of direction amid subdued US interest rate movements, and the eurodollar remained in a firmer position. Today is a phase in which it will be interesting to see if a sense of direction emerges.
GBPUSD was directionless on the previous day, with US interest rates settling. Aggressive trading was put off as interest rate cut speculation smoldered against the backdrop of slowing UK inflation. Today is another phase in which we will have to wait and see if a sense of direction emerges.
The previous day, the Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar following indications of progress in US-China trade talks. Today is the phase to see how far this momentum can continue.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In Tokyo hours, the yen was bid against the US dollar following discussions on currency developments at the US-Japan finance ministers' meeting. The market was once again aware of the caution of intervention, and the upward movement was restrained. From European hours onwards, the market lacked a sense of direction, keeping a close eye on US interest rate movements, and continued to struggle through New York hours. Although the yen sold off sharply, it was a day in which the resilience of the yen was recognised.
The directionless movement continued from Tokyo to European hours, but a temporary downward push was made in early New York. Aggressive trading was limited ahead of the FOMC and ECB Governing Council meetings, and the overall mood was one of wait-and-see.
Selling of the pound was dominated in the European hour by a fall in the UK 10-year bond yield, which was compounded by a pick-up in US long-term interest rates after entering New York, accelerating the downward push. Buying back came in towards the end of the day, but the momentum did not continue and the return remained sluggish. In the end, the market closed below last week's lows, and the heaviness of the ground was recognised.
From Tokyo to European hours, the market continued to struggle and lacked a sense of direction. In New York, the Australian dollar was repurchased as the US interest rate rise paused and dollar buying receded. It remained resilient and closed slightly higher at the end of the day.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day saw a pause in the rise in long-term US interest rates and a calming of dollar buying.
Technical momentum of the rally slowed as the upside was perceived to be heavy at the Β₯153 level.
The Bank of Japan's policy modifications are persistent, and the yen continues to be susceptible to repurchase.
Today, attention will be focused on whether there is a move to consolidate lower prices.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around the 152.30-153.40 area.
The situation is easily linked to US interest rates and stock price movements, although they can swing either way up or down.
tactics
Based on returning to higher prices, but with an eye on short-term rotation depending on the downside reaction.
Room to consider short-term buy-backs if a push to the low Β₯152s is confirmed
trigger
A break above 153.50 could rekindle dollar buying.
Wary of a short-term extension of the adjustment on a break below 152.20.
Economic indicators and long-term interest rate movements in US time are expected to provide direction.
override condition
The upside retest scenario is invalid once a clear break below 152.00 is achieved.
Conversely, if 153.80 is clearly exceeded, the view of a predominant return sale is broken.
risk event
US consumer confidence index and housing-related indicators.
Reports on statements by Bank of Japan officials and reports related to foreign exchange intervention.
Interest rate changes in the US bond market and changes in stock market sentiment.
position management
Keep lot size at 70% of normal and be prepared for sudden changes before and after the index announcement.
Profit is to be taken around 152.60-152.80, loss is to be determined at 153.70 or above.
It is desirable to prioritise short-term price range-taking and avoid deep pursuit of the market.
checklist
Will the resumption of US interest rate rises be confirmed?
Will return pressure be maintained at the Β₯153 level?
Are there signs of stabilising lower prices in the low 152 yen range?
Market summary
The day before, US interest rate moves settled down and the Eurodollar was directionless in the low 1.16s.
Active trading was restrained due to mixed speculation on the monetary policy outlook ahead of the ECB Governing Council meeting
The dollar's wait-and-see attitude ahead of US economic indicators also added to the situation, and overall, the dollar continued to hover in a narrow range.
Today's focus is expected to be on positional adjustments ahead of the event.
Assumed range
Assumed around 1.1590-1.1740.
Difficulty in getting out either up or down is likely to continue, and the focus is on coming and going within a range.
tactics
In the short term, based on range rotation, sell on the upside and buy on the downside.
A lighter position is advisable in the face of price movements around ECB and US index releases.
trigger
A development that will lead to a buy-back trend on a break above 1.1740.
Downward flow is likely to strengthen with a break below 1.1590
US Conference Board consumer confidence and US interest rate trends as short-term triggers.
override condition
A clear break below 1.1550 would negate the view of a break below the lower range limit.
Conversely, if it exceeds 1.1760, the advantage of the return strategy diminishes.
risk event
ECB Governing Council and President Lagarde's press conference
Eurozone Consumer Price Index, October (preliminary)
US economic indicators (consumer confidence, housing related) released
position management
Keep lots at 60-70% of normal and adjust new construction sparingly until the event passes.
Mechanical response with gains around 1.1700 and losses below 1.1560.
Limited to mainly short-term trades until there is a sense of direction.
checklist
Is there increased volatility driven by speculation ahead of the ECB meeting?
Is return pressure maintained at the upper 1.17s?
Will the euro's downward push be confirmed by the resumption of dollar buying after the release of US indicators?
Market summary
The day before, US interest rates settled and the pound dollar was directionless in the low 1.33s
The upside remained heavy on the back of slowing inflation in the UK, which raised awareness of the possibility of interest rate cuts.
Overall, the market continued to hover in a range, partly due to dollar buyers' reticence ahead of the release of US indices
Markets remain cautious ahead of this week's Bank of England meeting
Assumed range
Assumed around 1.3280-1.3380.
Difficult to get a sense of direction and waiting for material to break out either up or down.
tactics
For the time being, based on range rotation, sell on the upside and buy on the downside.
Priority given to small gains, mainly in the short term, to avoid sudden changes before events.
trigger
Possible tilt towards a buy-back trend on a break above 1.3390.
A break below 1.3280 will lead to stronger adjustment selling.
Developments in the US consumer confidence index and UK interest rate futures provide directional clues.
override condition
A clear break below 1.3250 would negate the lower range boundary and disrupt the short-term upside scenario
Conversely, above 1.3420, a return-dominant strategy is less likely to work.
risk event
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (28 Oct).
UK inflation-related indicators and BoE member statements
Speculation on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later in the week.
position management
Keep position size at 60-70% of normal and adjust new openings sparingly until the index passes.
Gains are determined at around 1.3360-1.3370 and losses are determined below 1.3250.
Keep positions light until the direction is solidified and prepare for liquidity risk in the event of sudden changes.
checklist
Will the resumption of dollar buying after US indicators be confirmed?
Will we see a push-back reaction in the low 1.33s?
Is market sentiment changing ahead of the BoE meeting?
Market summary
The Australian dollar was slightly stronger against the US dollar the previous day on indications of progress in US-China trade talks.
AUDUSD was supported to the downside as a pause in the rise in US interest rates curbed dollar buying.
However, active buying was limited due to the desire to wait and see the Australian CPI results the following day.
Return selling was also seen in the mid 0.65s, and the overall directional trend remained lacklustre.
Assumed range
Assumed around 0.6520-0.6600
The situation is likely to be mainly a range-bound transition awaiting an event, with a tendency to swing either upwards or downwards.
tactics
In the short term, based on range rotation, with a push-buy near 0.6520 and a sell-back near 0.6590.
Lightly positioned ahead of the CPI announcement and wait for the trend to move after the event passes.
trigger
Development of a break above 0.6600 to facilitate buy-backs.
A break below 0.6520 could strengthen adjustment selling.
The results of the US Consumer Confidence Index (28 Oct) and the Australian CPI (29 Oct) are the most important short-term triggers.
override condition
A clear break below 0.6500 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, the advantage of a return strategy diminishes if it exceeds 0.6640.
risk event
29 Oct Australian CPI (Q3) released
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Speculation over the RBA Board meeting in early November.
position management
Lot sizes are kept at 60-70% of normal levels to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations before and after an event.
Gains are determined around 0.6580-0.6590 and losses below 0.6500.
Until there is a sense of direction, it is advisable to limit the operation to short-term trades and to avoid going too deep.
checklist
Is there a growing trend towards position adjustment ahead of the Australian CPI?
Is buying support maintained in the mid 0.65s?
Will the resumption of dollar buying be confirmed after US indicators?
AI postcards: today's market
review
In Tokyo hours, the yen was bought in response to the US-Japan finance ministers' meeting, after which both Europe and New York continued to struggle.
summary
Upward movement restrained by a combination of intervention warnings and waiting for events
Buying back at lower prices, overall a day of lack of direction.
Short-term: range-bound, awaiting materials; price range likely to be limited
Today's price movements
Asian time is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, continuing the trend of the previous day.
Easy to be linked to the tone of interest rates and equities on entry into Europe, with a baseline of continued traffic.
New York awaits reaction to event headlines, and beware of up-and-down swings.
Background and materials
Lingering yen buying following US-Japan key figures' talks and smoldering intervention speculation.
Lack of direction in US interest rates and a lull in dollar buying momentum
Focus on position adjustment pending indicators and key figures' statements
Technical memorandum (short term)
Continued holding between recent highs and lows
Returns are likely at the upside and push-back reactions at the downside
Short-term moving averages are flat and momentum neutral
Technical note (mid-term).
A pause in the upward trend, trend judgement will be carried over to after the events are digested.
Whether the support zone can be maintained is a divergence of medium-term stances.
Volume tends to contract slightly before the event.
impression
Reaction to material is quickening and headline-driven price movements are a must.
We want to assess the quality of the initial response rather than excessive anticipation.
It is vital not to be swayed by sudden price movements during thin trading hours.
trade observations
Basically, range rotation is assumed and breaks are followed with emphasis on accuracy.
Lighten positions before events and take profits frequently.
When retrograding, limit damage with shallow stops.
checklist
Check for the presence of authorities' statements and intervention-related headlines
Is the direction of US interest rates and stock markets spilling over into the dollar?
Whether the upper and lower bounds of the range are updated in Asia and how this is accompanied by volume
review
Lack of direction from Tokyo to the European time, with a slight increase in buying back after a downward push in early New York.
summary
A day of general wait-and-see attitude ahead of FOMC and ECB Council meetings
A pause in US interest rate rises slows dollar buying momentum, while the euro remains resilient
In the short term, a narrow range of events awaits
Today's price movements
Asian time is directionless, with limited price volatility.
Stalemate continues in Europe due to material difficulties
Temporary downward pressure in early New York, but then a slight rebound as buyers returned to the market.
Background and materials
A pause in the rise in US interest rates restrained dollar buying.
Investors are holding back on new positions ahead of the preliminary Eurozone GDP figures and the ECB Council meeting.
Wary of the FOMC, with a sense of caution spreading across all markets, making it difficult to find direction.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the market continues to hold around 1.0650-1.0750
Moving averages are converging and waiting to break
RSI is in neutral territory and shows no signs of overheating.
Technical note (mid-term).
In the medium term, the range continues with support to the downside in the low 1.06s.
Continued firings around the 200-day line, with signs of a trend reversal still limited.
Bollinger Bands are contracting and should be ready to expand after the event.
impression
In the absence of a clear sense of direction, the reaction after the passage of the event is likely to determine the next phase of the market
Environment sensitive to news headlines and interest rate trends in the short term
Not a good time to take risks, position consolidation is a priority.
trade observations
Mainly short-term rotation within a narrow range
New positions should be confirmed after the initial post-event activity.
Set stops shallow to prepare for the risk of sudden changes before and after the event.
checklist
Confirms the tone of the FOMC statement and the Chairman's remarks
Check out the preliminary Eurozone GDP results and market reaction.
Watch for short-term changes linked to movements in US interest rates and the dollar index.
review
Selling of the pound accelerated in the European hour against the backdrop of a fall in the UK 10-year bond yield, and the downward pressure was accelerated in New York by the addition of higher US interest rates.
summary
Selling was led by lower UK interest rates in the early stages, and from the middle of the day onwards, the pressure on the dollar was compounded.
Some buying back was seen towards the end of the day, but the return was slow and the market closed below last week's low.
Overall, interest rate differential awareness rather than risk appetite prevails.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time started on a light note, with selling turning dominant in early Europe.
In the New York time, the downward trend was accompanied by a pick-up in US interest rates.
Slight return by short-covering at the end of the day, but limited upside.
Background and materials
UK 10-year bond yields fell, raising awareness of the prospect of an early rate cut.
Optimism about the US-China summit supported risk sentiment, but currency reaction was limited.
The rebound in long-term US interest rates supported the dollar and restrained the return of the pound.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the downtrend continues with the upper limit at 1.2650.
Clearly below 1.2550 and last week's low
RSI approaches oversold territory, but rebound momentum limited
Technical note (mid-term).
In the medium term, the trend line has remained below the uptrend line since August
The low 1.2500s are considered as a near-term support zone.
Dead crossing of moving averages in progress, creating a structure conducive to return sales.
impression
Lower UK interest rates are likely to affect market sentiment, and the double factor of a stronger dollar and a softer trend.
As an adjustment market before a risk event, caution should be exercised in the event of a sudden rebound.
Technical-driven trading is likely to increase in times of material scarcity.
trade observations
Maintain a return stance and watch developments after the event passes.
Short-term priority is to confirm the rebound phase rather than to go for the price range.
Thoroughly manage risk and adjust position sizes to a restrained level.
checklist
UK interest rate trends and the direction of US long-term interest rates.
Check out the volatility of the dollar index before the FOMC
Watch whether the short-term support line (around 1.2500) is maintained.
review
The Australian dollar remained directionless from Tokyo to European hours, but was bought back in New York as US interest rates paused in their rise.
summary
Strong wait-and-see attitude ahead of Australian CPI, mainly small movements in Asia and Europe
The Australian dollar has moved lower as US interest rates have paused and dollar buying has receded.
The market remained firm at the end of the day and closed in slightly positive territory.
Today's price movements
Asian time is squabbling and directionless, mainly short-term muscle trading.
Price range limited in Europe as well, with a wait-and-see approach to the Australian CPI.
In New York, the Australian dollar was supported by a risk appetite as the dollar was sold off in an adjustment
Background and materials
Expectations for the US-China summit underpin market sentiment.
Mixed speculation over the monetary policy outlook ahead of the Australian CPI the following day
Developments in US interest rates were key to the overall dollar market, with the Australian dollar also affected.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, mainly range trading between 0.6520 and 0.6570.
Converging moving averages and lack of direction.
RSI is in neutral territory and shows no signs of overheating.
Technical note (mid-term).
In the medium term, the price will continue to hover around the 0.65 level as a downside support.
Failure to clearly exceed 0.66, and a form of upside weakness is also being considered.
Volatility may increase after the event passes
impression
Quiet trading ahead of the event, but still sensitive to changes in dollar interest rates
Phase in which medium- to long-term interest rate and economic themes take precedence over short-term materials
It is worth noting that the company remains resilient in a risk-averse environment.
trade observations
Be cautious about new entries before the Australian CPI is released.
Maintain a push-buy stance in the short term, but rebuild the strategy after the event passes
Be aware of time overlap with FOMC and US indicators, and prioritise gains when volatility increases.
checklist
Confirmation of the Australian CPI release results and the market's interest rate factoring.
Watch developments in US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check for changes in risk appetite mood (stocks and China-related news)
FX Diary.