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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Oct IFO Corporate Business Confidence Index | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day, the market was slightly higher while swinging up and down. Today, it will be interesting to see if the highs of 10 October can be renewed. Also, daylight saving time has ended in Europe today and standard time has started.
The previous day, the market was slightly higher while swinging up and down, and towards the end of the day, there was a move to confirm the firmness of the lower price. Today is a phase in which we will have to see where the upside is likely to be higher. Also, daylight saving time has ended in Europe today and the country is on standard time.
The previous day, the dollar was slightly lower, albeit up and down, and overall the dollar was perceived to be resilient. The lows are gradually cutting back and today is a phase where we will have to see where the downside will be heavier. Also, daylight saving time has ended in Europe today and the country is on standard time.
The previous day saw a candle with little substance, and the pair continued to struggle with a lack of direction. Today, the AUDUSD opened a large window following hints of progress in the US-China trade talks. However, the market reaction to reports related to the Chinese economy remains sensitive and the flow is likely to reverse depending on the material. Today, the market will be conscious of the window filling and will first look to see at what level the price will be weighed down to the upside. Also, daylight saving time has ended in Europe today and the country is now on standard time.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In the Tokyo session, the dollar was bought ahead of the market and temporarily exceeded JPY 153, but the upside was dominated by a return to the market. In the European time, the US interest rate rise paused, dollar buying weakened and the yen was bought back, and by the New York time, dollar buying strengthened again against the backdrop of the resilience of US stocks, but the momentum did not continue at the ¥153 level and stalled out. Overall, the day was marked by continued firings at higher prices.
The previous day saw a series of directionless movements from Tokyo to early Europe, but better-than-expected German economic indicators temporarily boosted euro buying, while in New York, price movements gradually settled down due to a lack of new material while keeping a close eye on US interest rate developments. As a result, the previous day's highs could not be exceeded and the day ended in a struggle.
The previous day saw a lack of direction from Tokyo to the beginning of Europe, but in the second half of Europe, buy-backs prevailed, and in the New York time, dollar buying also limited the upside. As a result, both the previous day's highs and lows could not be renewed, and the day was marked by continued firmer trading.
The pair started the week's trading with a window and continued to lack a sense of direction during Tokyo hours. In European hours, the Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar as risk appetite strengthened on speculation of progress in the US-China talks. In New York, there was a lack of new material, and the market continued to struggle.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day was slightly higher, albeit up and down, and the trend towards a predominance of dollar purchases continued.
While the resilience of long-term US interest rates provides support, there is also a sense of caution about intervention and high prices.
Today, it will be interesting to see whether the 10 October highs can be renewed, and a search for direction is expected.
Assumed range
Assumed around 151.80-153.40
The upside is heavy in the mid-153 yen range, while the downside is considered to be support below 152 yen.
The price range is expected to remain high, albeit somewhat limited.
tactics
Basic stance is to buy at the push
It is seen as useful to be poised to pick up a downward push around 152.00 and aim for a short-term rebound.
However, if there is no clear exit from 153.30, keep the position light.
trigger
The upside trigger is above 153.30.
Downside trigger is below 151.80.
Volatility around the Tokyo time midpoint and during the release of US economic indicators should be noted.
override condition
If 151.70 is clearly broken and held at the close
If the momentum of dollar buying weakens and the rise in US interest rates pauses
Failure to renew higher prices may disrupt the uptrend continuation scenario
risk event
US PCE deflator-related announcements.
Reaction of long-term interest rates to the US Treasury bond auction results.
Statements and developments on yen-buying intervention by the Japanese authorities.
position management
Entry should be around 152.00-152.20.
The profit target low is around 153.20 and the loss target is below 151.70.
Refrain from buying new shares at high prices and give priority to adjusting holdings.
checklist
Are US interest rates continuing to rise?
Are there any changes in the exchange rate comments of the Japanese Government and the Bank of Japan?
Confirmation of increased volume when the ¥153 level was breached.
Market summary
The euro lacks momentum on the return, despite being supported on the downside, amid growing expectations of an end to the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts.
High US interest rates continue to be a supportive factor for the dollar, and the overall direction of the market remains lacklustre.
The previous day was slightly higher, albeit up and down, and the firmness of the lower price was confirmed towards the end of the day.
Assumed range
Assumed to be around 1.1600-1.1750
The upside is heavy around 1.18, while the downside is likely to be conscious of the lower 1.16s as support
During the day, the ground is likely to focus on price movements from European hours onwards.
tactics
Basic policy is to use range rotation.
We will respond with a return to the market in the event of a short-term buy-back, and consider a light push to buy near support.
It is useful to be aware that you should not hold positions for long periods of time and to ensure that you take narrow price gaps.
trigger
The upside trigger is above 1.1760.
Downside trigger is below 1.1620.
European time index releases and US time bond market developments may trigger volatility
override condition
If 1.1600 is clearly broken and maintained at the closing price
Lack of euro-buying material, if US interest rates do not temporarily stop falling
If the support zone is broken by a downward push with volume, the scenario will be revised.
risk event
Preliminary Eurozone inflation figures.
US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator
Trends in statements by US and European financial authorities
position management
Entry should be in the vicinity of 1.1650-1.1680.
Gains around 1.1740, losses below 1.1600.
Position size is half the normal size to limit risk.
checklist
Check the results of the Eurozone Inflation Indicator and market reaction.
Are US interest rate trends strengthening the dollar and weakening the euro?
Observed volume increase/decrease and market momentum in the 1.17 range
Market summary
The pound lacks return momentum as UK inflation continues to slow and interest rate cut speculation continues to smoulder.
High US interest rates have supported dollar buying, with an overall sense of dollar dominance.
The previous day saw a slight decline, with the trend swinging up and down, and the trend of falling to lower lows continued.
Assumed range
Assumed to be around 1.2600-1.2740
The upside is expected to be heavy in the mid-1.27s, while the downside is expected to search for a downside stop around the 1.26s.
Volatility is a slightly more volatile phase after European hours.
tactics
Basic policy is to respond with a return to sales.
In the short-term rebound phase, we will consider re-selling in the upper resistance zone.
Buy cautiously near support, and hold off on any rallies not accompanied by volume
trigger
The upside trigger is above 1.2750.
Downside trigger is below 1.2600.
Temporary swings are likely to occur in the early hours of London time and around the time of US index releases.
override condition
If a clear break above 1.2760
If the rise in US interest rates pauses and the pressure to buy the dollar eases
We will review the return scenario when the 1.27 level is maintained at the daily close.
risk event
Statements by Bank of England officials.
US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator
UK housing index results and market reaction.
position management
Entry should be in the vicinity of 1.2680-1.2700.
The profit target is around 1.2620 and the loss target is above 1.2760.
Position size is half the normal size to reduce risk.
checklist
Has there been any change in the Bank of England's interest rate cut outlook?
Do developments in US interest rates continue to support dollar buying?
Is selling pressure with volume increasing in the early London hours?
Market summary
Signs of progress in US-China trade talks have strengthened risk appetite.
The Australian dollar started the week with a large window of opportunity in the Oceania markets, with a predominance of buying back in the early stages of the week.
The previous day lacked direction with a candlestick of small substance, and today's developments after the window opening will be of interest.
Assumed range
Assumed to be around 0.6500-0.6630
The upside is expected to be heavy in the mid-0.66s, while the downside is expected to confirm support around 0.65.
Price movements are likely to be influenced by US-China related headlines.
tactics
Basic stance corresponds mainly to range rotation.
Use return selling in the upper resistance zone and short-term push-buying near lower support.
If a window-filling movement is observed, carefully judge the direction by checking the momentum
trigger
The upside trigger is above 0.6630.
Downside trigger is below 0.6500
Headlines around the midpoint of Tokyo time and in early Europe should be noted.
override condition
If 0.6480 is clearly interrupted and maintained at the close
If reports related to the US and China turn sour and risk aversion strengthens
If the resilience slows down after the window is completely filled, the upside scenario will be reviewed.
risk event
Australian Quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI)
US PCE deflator-related indicators
Statements by key government officials on US-China talks.
position management
Entry should be in the vicinity of 0.6530-0.6560.
The profit target is around 0.6620 and the loss target is below 0.6490.
Position size is kept at half the normal level to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations.
checklist
Are there any new changes in the coverage of the US-China talks?
Confirmation of the market's factoring in of the Australian CPI.
Will post-window price movements settle down or move towards expansion?
AI postcards: today's market
review
The dollar was bought in the Tokyo time and at one point exceeded ¥153, but the return of the dollar was predominant at the upper end of the range.
summary
In the European hour, dollar buying weakened as US interest rates paused in their rise, and the yen was bought back.
In New York, dollar buying strengthened again against the backdrop of resilience in US stocks, but the momentum slowed at the ¥153 level.
Overall, the market continued to hover at high levels and lacked a sense of direction.
Today's price movements
The opening price started from the second half of ¥152 and moved to test the ¥153 level in Tokyo time.
Adjustment selling pushed the price down to around ¥152.7 by European hours.
In New York, the price was back up to around ¥153, supported by a rebound in US equities.
Background and materials
Dollar buying momentum calmed somewhat on the back of a pause in the rise in US interest rates and comments from Fed officials.
Continued awareness of the Japanese authorities' verbal intervention due to warnings of a weak yen.
The overall market took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the release of US economic indicators.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Upside resistance is conscious in the vicinity of 153.20-153.30 and requires clear material for a break.
Lower support is at 152.50-152.60, a pushable structure.
RSI remains high but overheating is limited and remains at a high level
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily uptrend is maintained, with a support zone based on the upper 150 yen level functioning.
The weekly range continues to hover at the upper end of the range, searching for a sense of direction.
In the medium term, US interest rate developments and statements by the authorities will be the axis of trend judgement.
impression
Despite high prices, the willingness to buy the dollar is persistent, with a quiet attack on the risk of intervention.
Positioning is less likely to be unbalanced and price movements are more likely to be led by short-term sources as they await events.
Overall, despite some adjustments, there was an awareness of firmness in the low 152 yen range.
trade observations
For the time being, trading is mainly range-bound at around ¥153, and the ground is suitable for short-term trading.
Light positions are appropriate until there is clear momentum to either the upside or downside.
Continued attention to the risk of sharp falls on the upside specific to the dollar-yen
checklist
Will US interest rates and the dollar index start to rise again?
Will return pressure increase at the ¥153 level?
Do statements by the authorities and reports related to intervention have an impact on the market?
review
The euro was temporarily bought on the back of the positive results of German indicators, but the New York time was lacklustre and directionless.
summary
Buying dominated in early Europe, triggered by better-than-expected German economic indicators.
Stronger returns and upside potential before 1.17.
In New York, price movements were generally limited due to a lack of new material, while keeping a close eye on US interest rates and equity trends.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: slight range in the low 1.16s.
After the release of the German index in the European hour, the market was bought and rose to around 1.1690.
In New York, the pair reacted to US interest rate movements but failed to break higher, eventually closing at around 1.1670.
Background and materials
German business confidence index exceeded expectations, slightly reducing caution about the eurozone economy.
On the other hand, position adjustments are likely to proceed ahead of the ECB Council meeting later in the week, restricting upside.
Limited dollar movement in the US as a wait-and-see attitude prevails ahead of key indicators
Technical memorandum (short term)
Upside resistance before 1.1700, lower support band around 1.1650.
The RSI remains in neutral territory, making it difficult to find a clear direction.
In the short term, an adjustment phase within the 1.1650-1.1700 range will continue.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the market continues to hold around the 50-day moving average
A clear move above 1.1740 would raise awareness of medium-term upside potential, but stalemate awaits events.
A break below 1.1550 warns of a shift to a medium-term adjustment trend.
impression
Quiet day ahead of events, mainly position consolidation ahead of ECB Council and US indices
Trading was led by short-term sources and did not lead to a clear break either up or down.
Overall, a low-risk trading attitude was noticeable.
trade observations
A day when short-term trading with an awareness of the upper and lower range limits was effective
Environment in which return selling around 1.17 and push-buying around 1.1650 are likely to work.
It is appropriate to operate with a lighter lot due to the pre-event.
checklist
Is positional adjustment intensifying due to speculation ahead of the ECB Council meeting?
Which way out the 1.1650-1.1700 range is showing signs of exiting.
Have fluctuations in US interest rates led to pressure to buy the dollar and sell the euro?
review
Buy-backs prevailed in the second half of Europe, but the New York hour was lacklustre and lacked direction.
summary
From Tokyo to early Europe, small movements continued in the low 1.33s.
In the second half of the European session, there was a buy-back and the price temporarily rose to around 1.3350.
The New York time was again heavy on the upside with dollar buying, and as a result, neither the previous day's high nor low could be renewed.
Today's price movements
Only small price movements in the early part of the day amid material difficulties in the Asian markets.
The pound was bid up to around 1.3350 by the European hour.
In the New York session, the pair struggled again against the backdrop of stable US interest rates and closed at around 1.3330.
Background and materials
Selling pressure on the pound was limited, despite smoldering interest rate cut speculation due to the UK's slowing inflationary trend.
Position adjustment-led market development ahead of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later in the week.
Dollar buying back ahead of US economic indicators was a factor limiting the upside.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Upside resistance is around 1.3355-1.3360, downside support is 1.3310-1.3330.
RSI lacks direction at neutral level, but range maintenance is perceived in the short term
A break below 1.3280 is likely to strengthen the adjustment, with room for a rebound to around 1.3380.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the market continues to hover around the 50-day moving average.
Above 1.3400, return pressure is expected, below which 1.3250 is the support zone.
In the medium term, the structure will continue to hold around the 1.33 level
impression
Overall, amidst a general lack of material, trading was dominated by short-term sources ahead of the event.
Lack of clear direction due to mixed speculation on the UK Central Bank meeting and US interest rate developments
It was a quiet day with many participants adjusting their positions.
trade observations
Environment of return selling at the upper end of the range near 1.3350 and push-buying at the lower end of the range near 1.3310.
Light lot sizes and limited margins are appropriate before the event.
Focus on short-term contrarian trading in light of declining volatility
checklist
Is the return pressure around 1.3350 maintained?
Are you leaning towards buying or selling the pound ahead of the Bank of England meeting?
Have developments in US interest rates and stock prices led to a resumption of dollar buying?
review
The week started with a window, and the Australian dollar was bought through the European hour, but the upside was restrained after the RBA Governor's comments.
summary
Tokyo hours were directionless, with small movements in the mid-0.65s continuing.
In European hours, the Australian dollar was predominantly bought on speculation of progress in US-China talks.
Cautious comments from the RBA Governor dampened the buying momentum, and the New York session ended in a struggle due to material difficulties.
Today's price movements
The pair opened a window and ranged slightly around 0.6530-0.6550 in Tokyo hours.
European hours saw a rise to the 0.6560 level on risk appetite.
The pair lacked new material as it entered the New York hours and closed around 0.6550.
Background and materials
Reports of progress in US-China talks improved market sentiment and helped support the Australian dollar.
The RBA Governor said that the situation was not a rush to cut interest rates, but stressed that he would keep a close watch on the slowdown in inflation.
The statement reinforced the view that interest rates would remain unchanged ahead of the next Board meeting, and the market had a limited reaction.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Upside resistance is around 0.6570-0.6600, downside support around 0.6520-0.6500.
In the short term, the firings continue across the central line of the Bollinger band.
RSI remains in neutral territory and continues to lack directional structure
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the low 0.6500s are considered as a medium-term support band.
A clear move above 0.6600 could lead to a test of the upper end of the range.
However, liquidity is low ahead of the event and the price range is likely to be limited.
impression
While the RBA Governor's comments provided short-term support for the Australian dollar, new positions were limited ahead of the CPI
Improved mood in US-China relations provides underlying support, but direction remains elusive
A quiet start to the week, with markets increasingly waiting for the next material
trade observations
Mainly short-term trading with an awareness of the 0.6520-0.6600 range.
Avoid carrying over before an event, and use day-trading as the main method of operation.
It is advisable to keep positions at 60-70% of normal and be prepared for after the index announcement.
checklist
Is there a continued expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged following the RBA Governor's comments?
Is the push reaction around 0.6520 maintained?
Have reports on US-China relations affected the direction of the Australian dollar?
FX Diary.