Market summary

With the yen continuing to weaken against the backdrop of expectations of economic stimulus measures by the Takaichi administration and US interest rates remaining high, the dollar is hovering around the ¥152 level and is conscious of the need to attack the milestone.

Assumed range

Around 151.80-153.00

tactics

Maintain a push-buyer-oriented stance and take a cautious approach, prioritising profit-taking at higher prices.

trigger

The upward trend is towards a stronger buying trend if the market clearly breaks above around 153.00.

On the downside, a break below 151.80 could lead to a further adjustment.

Pay attention to changes in US interest rates and the timing of key figures' statements.

override condition

Clearly below the mid ¥151 level, confirming a pause in the upward trend if it is entrenched at the close.

If yen buying flows strengthen due to sudden risk aversion or intervention warnings

risk event

Policy-related reports on Japan's national CPI results.

US durable goods orders and consumption-related indicators.

Observational reports and key figures' statements on next week's BOJ meeting

position management

Use split entry for upward movement and be aware of profit taking at the time of a sharp rise.

Push-buying is done in small increments by checking the support zone.

Losses are strictly managed based on a break below the 151 yen level.

checklist

Check for new media coverage of Japan's economic measures

Watch developments in long-term US interest rates and the US dollar index.

Check the impact of BOJ-related statements and reports on the market.

Market summary

The previous day continued to lack direction, with the Eurodollar firmer in a narrow range.

Preliminary German and Eurozone PMI figures and US interest rate trends will be in focus today, with the possibility of testing either the upper or lower end of the range depending on the results.

Overall, the market's focus is on short-term price movements as it waits for events

Assumed range

Around 1.0600-1.0680

tactics

Based on range rotation, with an awareness of flexibility in preparation for short-term breaks.

It is safe to hold positions until the release of the European PMIs and enter only after confirming the results.

Short-term forces mainly respond to the reverse around the upper and lower limits.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above around 1.0680 could strengthen the buyback.

Downwards, the dollar is likely to be dominated by dollar buying below 1.0600, and the adjustment is likely to spread

Preliminary European PMI and US interest rate movements trigger a short-term trend change.

override condition

Short-term break scenario temporarily invalid if the market remains sideways all day around 1.0650

If European and US indices settle around market expectations and volatility is extremely low

If the dollar index remains largely unchanged from the previous day and continues to lose direction

risk event

Preliminary German and Eurozone PMIs.

US durable goods orders and consumption-related indicators

Statements made by ECB officials and Fed officials

position management

Trading in the range is based on managing positions in small lots and closing them in the short term.

Utilise split entry while assessing momentum when an upward or downward breakout occurs.

Set stop-losses at 20-30 pips and avoid going too deep until there is a sense of direction.

checklist

Confirmation of the preliminary German and Eurozone PMI results and market reaction.

Watch developments in long-term US interest rates and the US dollar index.

Confirm the impact of ECB and FRB key figures' statements on short-term trends.

Market summary

The previous day continued to lack direction, with the pound dollar remaining in a range.

Weak UK CPI results weighed on expectations of a rate cut, while high US interest rates also supported the dollar.

Fewer indicators to be announced today, so attention will be focused on the developments after the European hour.

Assumed range

Around 1.2600-1.2700

tactics

Hard to see a clear trend, mainly short-term trading based on range rotation.

Aware of the possibility of a return to the market, but prepared to cautiously aim for a push to the downside.

We need to see if there are signs of a break during the liquidity expansion phase in the European hour.

trigger

On the upside, a break above around 1.2700 could stimulate short-term buying back.

Downwards, selling pressure strengthens below 1.2600, room for a short-term adjustment to spread.

Preliminary European PMI figures and US interest rate trends may trigger

override condition

Break scenario temporarily invalid if the market remains sideways all day around 1.2650

Developments in key figures' statements and economic indicators settle around market expectations, reducing volatility.

If the dollar index remains almost unchanged from the previous day and lacks direction

risk event

UK economic indicators and statements from BoE officials.

US durable goods orders and consumer spending related indicators

Geopolitical reports influencing changes in long-term US interest rates and market sentiment.

position management

Position sizes are modest, assuming in-range trading.

Avoid excessive positions by utilising split entries until a break is confirmed.

Set stop-losses at 20-30 pips and prioritise short-term settlements until a sense of direction emerges.

checklist

UK CPI aftermath confirms change in BoE rate cut expectations

European PMI preliminary figures and US interest rate developments are closely monitored.

Confirmation of reaction around key range levels (1.2600 and 1.2700).

ChatGPT:.

Market summary

The previous day was dominated by buying, but the range could not be clearly broken out and only small movements were seen.

The downside is limited due to awareness of the resilience of the resource markets even as US interest rates remain high.

Today will be a day of searching for direction amid material difficulties

Assumed range

Around 0.6520-0.6590

tactics

Conscious of trading based on range rotation as no clear trend is seen.

Flexibility in both short-term push-backs and returns.

When a break occurs, confirm the volume and time of day before considering entry.

trigger

To the upside, buy-backs may prevail if the pair breaks above around 0.6600.

Downside selling strengthens below 0.6520, with a short-term adjustment in mind.

Fluctuations in US interest rates and resource prices are likely to trigger a departure from the range.

override condition

Short-term trades are unlikely to be established if the price is flat all day around 0.6550 and volume declines

Less directional when the Dollar Index remains less than 1% volatile from the previous day

If the Chinese market is closed or lacks materials and commodity markets quiet down

risk event

Preliminary PMI figures for Australia and China

US durable goods orders and consumer spending indicators

Resource price trends (iron ore, copper, crude oil, etc.)

position management

Keep position sizes small when trading mainly in a range, and use short-term settlement as the basis for settlement.

When a break occurs, priority is given to split entries after confirmation rather than following.

Set stop-losses at 20-25 pips to limit risk.

checklist

Check schedule of Australian and Chinese economic indicator releases.

Watch developments in long-term US interest rates and the US dollar index.

Check the impact of intra-day changes in resource prices (iron ore and copper) on the Australian dollar.

review

In Tokyo hours, the dollar was bought ahead on the back of expectations of economic measures by the Takaichi administration, and closed slightly higher in New York on the back of a buyback from the dollar sell-off in response to the index, while confirming the upward pressure in Europe.

summary

Domestic policy expectations continue to support the sale of the yen.

Temporary dollar sell-off due to weak US economic indicators dissipates early

Overall, the trend is to maintain resilience despite the struggle for higher prices.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours saw the yen sell off, with the dollar/yen holding steady.

In European hours, the upward pressure is felt around 153 yen, with a sluggish extension.

In New York, the dollar was temporarily sold off in response to deteriorating US economic indicators, but was later bought back and ended slightly higher.

Background and materials

Expectations of economic stimulus measures by the Takaichi Government support the selling of the yen.

In the US, PMIs and new unemployment insurance applications weakened slightly.

The dollar's resilience was recognised amidst continued speculation of an increase in the US-Japan interest rate differential.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Continued testing of resistance around ¥153, lack of momentum to the upside

The lower price is in the mid-152 yen range, which is perceived as support.

Momentum slows slightly, although the uptrend line is maintained in the short term

Technical note (mid-term).

Maintains a gradual upward trend with the daily trend remaining above the 20-day moving average

Approaching the upper range of the medium-term ascending channel, with a view to possible adjustment.

Continuing to move in line with the upper Bollinger band limit, with some caution about overheating.

impression

A day of lack of direction as domestic policy expectations and US interest rate developments are at odds with each other.

Limited reaction to indicators, with profit-taking at higher levels prevailing in the short term

The overall impression is that the market as a whole has taken on more of a positional adjustment feel ahead of the weekend.

trade observations

Cautious about tracking upwards, and careful about falling back near the milestone phase

When a push is formed, confirm support in the mid-152 yen range and look for a buying opportunity.

Short-term trades with limited position sizes are effective while awaiting indicators

checklist

Confirmation of the results of key US economic indicators (durable goods orders and preliminary PMI figures).

Check media trends on Japan's additional economic measures.

Watch for a break above the ¥153 resistance or another push

review

The dollar was sold off in New York due to the weakness of US indicators, but was bought back at the end of the day and closed with little substance on a daily basis.

summary

Weak US economic indicators led to a temporary sell-off of the dollar.

The euro was supported to the downside by the resilience of European indicators.

In the end, the range continues to remain within a range, with a lack of direction.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time: lack of material for clues, firings in a narrow range.

In European hours, Eurozone PMIs are firm and test the upside, but momentum is limited.

In New York, the US dollar was temporarily sold off on weaker US indicators, but was subsequently bought back to the upside.

Background and materials

Eurozone PMIs exceed market expectations, underpinning expectations of an economic pick-up.

Weak US economic indicators spread a pause in dollar buying.

Lack of major new material in both Europe and the US, and a wait-and-see mood continues.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The range between 1.0600 and 1.0680 remains in focus.

Short-term moving averages are flat, suggesting a lack of direction.

A trend of mixed short-term buying and selling, with noticeable ups and downs beards.

Technical note (mid-term).

On a daily basis, the market continues to hover around the 20-day line and is neutrally positioned.

Located in the central band of the medium-term range, with no clear trend reversal confirmed.

RSI maintains neutral level and calm price movements without overheating

impression

Temporary movement in response to US economic indicators, but overall lack of direction.

The euro, while showing resilience, is also restrained on the upside, giving the impression of a lack of strength.

Trading was limited as positional adjustments prevailed ahead of the weekend.

trade observations

Focus on contrarian strategies within the short-term range as no clear break is seen.

Sell back on the upside and buy on the downside in small increments.

Avoid deep following in the event of a sudden indicator reaction, and trade with an awareness of the upper and lower bounds of the range.

checklist

Check results of key economic indicators for the euro area and the US.

Watch which way out of the 1.0600-1.0680 range.

Confirmation of key European figures' statements and interest rate trends for the start of the week.

review

From Tokyo to Europe, the dollar struggled to stay below the previous day's lows, and in New York, the dollar was temporarily sold on the back of weak US indicators, but was bought back and closed slightly lower.

summary

Price movements remained within a range amidst a lack of direction.

Temporary buying of the euro and selling of the dollar due to US indicators, but of limited sustainability.

Overall, a calm development with a mixture of downward pressure and buy-backs.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time lacked new material, and the range was conscious of the previous day's low.

In European hours, a mixture of return selling and push-buying, with a lack of direction.

Weak US economic indicators temporarily led to dollar selling in New York, but short-term buy-backs helped to restore the value of the dollar.

Background and materials

Persistent expectations of interest rate cuts on the UK side, a factor restricting the upside.

In the US, economic indicators fell short of market expectations, triggering a sell-off in the dollar.

Lack of new policy cues in both Europe and the US, and continued to wait for material

Technical memorandum (short term)

The range around 1.2600-1.2700 remains in focus.

Short-term moving averages remain sideways and show no direction.

Easy to buy in the support zone even during temporary downside pressure.

Technical note (mid-term).

Neutral ground on the daily basis, with a continued attack and defence between the 20-day moving average and the 20-day moving average.

Price movements have converged in the central band of the medium-term range and a trend turning point is being sought.

RSI remains at neutral levels and shows no signs of overbought or oversold conditions

impression

Reaction to US indicators was temporary and the overall market wait-and-see attitude was strong.

The pound showed underlying strength against the dollar, but lacked clear upside momentum.

Trading was limited ahead of the weekend, with the main focus on short-term trading.

trade observations

A policy of small-lot selling back at the upper end of the range and small-lot push-buying at the lower end of the range is effective.

Beware of short-term price movements immediately after an index announcement, and aim for a return after a reaction rather than following it.

Be aware of position adjustments towards the end of the week and try to operate in a low-risk manner.

checklist

Check results and market reaction to major UK and US economic indicators.

Watch for signs of a break out of the 1.2600-1.2700 range.

Confirmation of statements by Bank of England officials and changes in policy stance.

review

The dollar continued to struggle with little sense of direction from Tokyo to Europe, and in New York, the dollar was temporarily sold off due to weakness in US indicators, but was bought back and closed with a small candlestick of substance.

summary

Australian dollar lacks direction while reacting to the results of US indicators.

Movements in resource prices were also limited, and the market remained range-bound due to material difficulties.

Overall, a day of mainly positional adjustments ahead of the weekend.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo hours, the market continued to struggle around the previous day's closing price and lacked a clear sense of direction.

Temporary buying back in European hours, but limited upside

In New York, US economic indicators fell short of expectations and dollar sales strengthened, but short-term buyers returned to the market.

Background and materials

US economic indicators fell short of expectations, triggering a sell-off in the dollar.

No significant new material in Australia and a wait-and-see mood ahead of next week's CPI release

Resource markets were flat and unlikely to be a factor in the direction of the Australian dollar

Technical memorandum (short term)

In the short term, a range around the mid-0.65s is being considered.

The upside is held back by the recent highs, while the downside is supported by push-backs.

The RSI is at a neutral level and the trendless ground continues.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily trend remains above the 20-day moving average and maintains a gradual upward trend.

The medium-term range of 0.64-0.67 remains in place, with limited signs of a change in direction.

Weekly trend in a sideways range from the previous week, awaiting a break

impression

The overall US dollar was sensitive to the index results, but the trend was short-lived.

The Australian dollar has limited downside against a backdrop of strong resource markets, but clear buying pressure is scarce.

Overall, market participants were less willing to trade actively and it was a quiet Friday

trade observations

For short-term price movements, sell at the upper end of the range and buy at the lower end of the range.

Beware of profit-taking on the upside

It is safe to take a lighter stance over the week in preparation for next week's CPI release.

checklist

Confirmation of the Australian CPI schedule to be released next week.

Watch the results of US economic indicators (PCE and durable goods orders).

Check resource prices (especially iron ore and copper)