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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | Oct Consumer confidence (preliminary) | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Sep Used home sales [annualised number]. | graphical representation | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | Sep Used home sales [month-on-month]. | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day was a day lacking a sense of direction, with the market moving within an adjustment range while keeping a close eye on developments in US interest rates. Today, buying has prevailed from early Tokyo time, and the yen has been weakening slightly. Overall, the market is likely to find a balance between the continuation of the strong US dollar trend and adjustments against the backdrop of policy expectations and interest rate trends.
The previous day, selling prevailed in the second half of the day in Europe against a backdrop of resilient US interest rates and sluggish growth in European indicators. In New York, on the other hand, buy-backs were led by higher stock prices and position adjustments. There is a view that the market is approaching a level where it is likely to be sold on the return, and the strength of the selling pressure and the defence of the milestone area are to be assessed.
The previous day, GBPUSD was dominated by GBP selling after the UK consumer price index came in below market expectations. The price fell all the way down in European hours, but in New York, it regained most of its lost ground as buying returned on the back of higher stock prices and a lull in the dollar. Today, we will see whether the selling will intensify again or whether the market will remain resilient.
The previous day, AUDUSD oscillated up and down amid a lack of material, but remained in a small range overall. There were no new economic indicators released in Australia, and speculation about monetary policy has eased. The wait-and-see mood is likely to continue today. The focus will be on which way interest rates and stock markets move in order to get a sense of direction.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Dollar buying prevailed throughout the day from Tokyo time on the back of expectations of economic measures by the new Takaichi Government. The dollar remained firm through European hours, and in the New York session, it broke above last week's highs and temporarily rose to the upper Β₯152 level. However, profit-taking selling was also seen around Pivot R3, confirming the heaviness of the upside. Overall, the day was marked by a strong US dollar/weak yen trend, but also by an offensive and defensive situation around the milestone.
The market continued to search for lower prices from Tokyo through to Europe, but was lifted slightly by buying back in the New York hours. Nevertheless, the market failed to reach the previous day's highs and the return was limited. Overall, the day was marked by a lack of new material and continued directionless price movements.
During the Tokyo session, the market was pushed down but the momentum was weak and the pair struggled with little sense of direction. In the New York session, dollar buying gained the upper hand and the pair moved to test the previous day's lows, but closed with a small movement at the end of the session as if time was running out.
Buyers were aware of the underlying support in the resource market even as US interest rates remained high, and buying was prevalent from the European time. The market moved to test the previous day's highs, but stalled for a time, confirming the heaviness of the upside. Later, in the New York hours, buying was again strong and the pair moved slightly above the previous day's highs. The market closed the day maintaining the highs at the end of the day, and the day as a whole was marked by firmness.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day was marked by a strong adjustment, with a lack of directional direction, as the market kept a close eye on US interest rates.
Today, buying is predominant from early Tokyo time, with a slight swing towards a weaker yen.
Overall, the dollar remains strong, but caution is needed as the upward momentum may slow down at times.
Assumed range
Assumes a range centred around 151.0-152.2
The upside is likely to be a return sale in front of the Β₯152 level, while the downside is likely to be push-buying at around Β₯151.
A wait-and-see mood may prevail during Asian hours and early Europe
tactics
Basis is mainly push-buy, with short-term rotation in mind
Do not follow rapid yen buying, focus on picking up at lower prices
Cool to temporary fluctuations caused by US interest rates and Japanese authorities' statements
trigger
A break above 152.2 is likely to strengthen the buying trend.
Short-term adjustment may accelerate below 151.0
US long-term interest rates and stock price movements after European hours are key to price movements.
override condition
A clear break below the low Β₯150s would break the dollar's bias towards strength.
Buying momentum is likely to be dampened if there are statements of checks and balances on foreign exchange from the authorities
Review strategy if risk aversion factors dominate over interest rate differential factors
risk event
Trends in the postponement or resumption of the release of US economic indicators (impact of the government shutdown).
On the Japanese side, speculation on the national CPI on 24
Statements by authorities and key figures, changes in US interest rates
position management
Position size is controlled to 50-70% of normal.
Profit should be around 152.0 and stop-loss should be below 150.8.
Consider lightening the position after the passage of the event.
checklist
Check direction of US interest rates and dollar index.
Pay attention to what the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan officials say.
Confirmation that price movements in the Asian and European time zones will continue into New York
Market summary
The previous day, selling was dominated in the second half of the day in Europe, while in New York, buying back was driven by higher stock prices and positional adjustments.
Today, the market is seen as approaching a level where it is likely to be sold on the return, and the focus is on the attack and defence around the milestone.
Environment in which interest rates and risk appetite continue to swing and direction is difficult to find, but short-term swings are likely to occur.
Assumed range
Assume a range centred around 1.1550-1.1650
On the upside, watch for a return stall around 1.1650.
On the downside, check for a push at around 1.1550.
tactics
Basis is based on selling back, but with range rotation.
Short-term rebound is considered for entry by pulling back to the resistance zone.
If the break lacks momentum, do not chase too deeply and focus on rotation.
trigger
Above 1.1650 to continue the return test scenario.
Preferred scenario of resumption of downward pressure below 1.1550.
Key figures in the European hour and the direction of US interest rates in early New York are likely to be turning points.
override condition
Review of return assumption if the price remains above 1.1650 on a closing basis.
Neutralised if US interest rates fall and stocks rise at the same time and dollar selling becomes dominant.
risk event
Headlines from ECB key figures and European indicators
Speculation on US data, including US CPI re-publication and weekly employment-related data.
Fluctuations in statistical schedules and delays in releasing statistics due to partial closure of government agencies.
position management
Start at 50-70% of normal size and lighten before the event.
Interest rates should be split before milestones such as 1.1580 and 1.1620.
Stop-losses are set just outside the level at which the basis for entry is lost.
checklist
Check whether the 1.1550-1.1650 range can be maintained
See if the direction of long-term US interest rates and stock market futures are in line with each other.
Inspect the frequency of ECB-related headlines and market reactions
Market summary
The day before, the UK consumer price index came in below market expectations, leading to a sell-off of the pound.
After a decline in the European hour, buyers returned to the market in New York, reducing the downward trend.
Overall, the direction of the market is limited due to a mixture of return sales and push-buying.
Assumed range
Assumed range centred around 1.2600-1.2750.
The upside is likely to be around 1.2750 and the downside around 1.2600.
The ground is easily linked to movements in US interest rates and stock prices
tactics
Basis is mainly to return to the market and rotate within the range.
It is safer to wait for a return than to pick up shallow pushes.
Lightly adjust positions as price movements may be rough around events.
trigger
A break above 1.2750 would indicate a continued short-term return.
Tendency to lean towards a predominant sell-off again at below 1.2600.
European hour statements and the resumption of US indices will trigger a change in direction.
override condition
Review the return strategy if it holds above 1.2750 at the close
Neutralised if UK fiscal headlines strengthen the pound's bid
Liquidate short-term positions when risk aversion strengthens buying of the dollar.
risk event
Scheduled US CPI re-publication and US interest rate trends
Statistical releases and statements by key figures related to UK public finances.
Index delays and market speculation due to partial closure of US government agencies.
position management
Keep size to 50-70% of normal.
Profit split just before the upper end of the range and stop-loss set just below 1.2600.
Lighten positions and limit risk before events.
checklist
Confirmation of the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check frequency and reaction to UK fiscal headlines.
Watchful waiting to see if the pound cross trend in the European hour continues into New York.
Market summary
The previous day was in a small range, swinging up and down due to a lack of clear material.
No new economic indicators on the Australian side and a lull in monetary policy speculation
Overall, the market remains in a wait-and-see attitude due to a lack of direction.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 0.6440-0.6520.
The upside is likely to be around 0.6520 and the downside around 0.6440.
Lack of direction but minor swings within the range are expected.
tactics
Basis is range rotation with flexible push-buying and return selling.
Focus on short-term trading until there is a clear trend, and be agile.
Conscious of taking small gains at milestones on both the upside and downside to see how they react.
trigger
A short-term return test is likely to be noticed on a break above 0.6520.
Slightly stronger downward bias below 0.6440
Movements in US interest rates and stock prices are likely to be triggered after European hours.
override condition
Review the return strategy if the price remains above 0.6520 on a closing basis
Neutralised if positive headlines related to Australia or China strengthen the Australian dollar
Switch to a wait-and-see approach if the volume is clearly outside the range.
risk event
Market reaction to the planned re-publication of the US CPI.
Reports on China-related indicators and foreign trade.
Increased volatility in US stock markets.
position management
Position size is controlled to 50-60% of normal.
Consider splitting gains before 0.6500 or around 0.6460.
Stop-losses are set outside the level clearly above the recent high and low.
checklist
Ensure that the direction of US interest rates and stock indices are in line with each other
Regularly check relevant Australian and Chinese headlines
Observe whether the range is maintained in the flow from Tokyo time to European time
AI postcards: today's market
review
Dollar buying prevailed on the back of expectations of economic measures by the new Takaichi administration, with the dollar rising to the upper Β₯152 level but confirming the heaviness of the upside around the milestone.
summary
A day of consistent dollar strength and yen weakness from Tokyo time.
Breaking through last week's highs has raised awareness of the upward trend
Short-term adjustments were also seen around Pivot R3, with profit-taking selling
Today's price movements
In Tokyo hours, the yen sold off on speculation of a stimulus package from the Takaichi administration.
In European hours, the yen 152 level is maintained against the backdrop of high US interest rates.
The pair rose to around 152.70 in the New York hours before closing slightly lower.
Background and materials
Reports that the Japanese Government is considering major economic measures have been a factor in selling the yen.
Confirmation of the priority given to supporting the economy rather than curbing inflation, and increased speculation about prolonged monetary easing.
In the US, long-term interest rates remained in the 4.6% range, supporting the dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Recent upside target around 152.80.
151.60-151.80 is considered a support zone.
RSI slightly higher but still in a strong trend
Technical note (mid-term).
Approaching the upper limit of the ascending channel on a daily basis.
The 20-day moving average (approx. 150.80) acts as medium-term support
Momentum remains strong with a temporary break above the upper Bollinger band
impression
Policy expectations led to selling of the yen, but the phase is unlikely to be biased in one direction until the actual details of the measures are clarified.
Remaining caution about currency intervention requires caution on the upside.
trade observations
Buying and holding at the second half of Β₯152 is a situation where profit-taking should be a priority.
Short-term trading is effective at the push point, checking support in the low 151 yen range.
Be aware of reduced liquidity before and after events.
checklist
Confirmation of the schedule for the announcement of specific details of Japan's economic measures.
Focus on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy-related statements
Continue to monitor US interest rate developments and changes in risk appetite
review
Selling was dominated from Tokyo to Europe, but was slightly reversed in the New York hours as buyers returned to the market.
summary
The dollar is predominantly bought in the early stages, with the euro falling.
Buying back in NY hours but limited upside
Overall lack of direction amid material difficulties
Today's price movements
Tokyo time lacks movement, with a slight upward trend.
The euro weakened as the dollar was bought over the European hour.
Temporary buying back in New York time, but stalls out short of higher prices.
Background and materials
US long-term interest rates remained high and the dollar continued to buy
Risk aversion spread as concerns over US-China trade frictions and the prolonged US government shutdown became more prevalent.
A wait-and-see attitude prevailed in trading amid a lack of new material ahead of Eurozone business confidence indicators
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is heavy around the previous day's highs, with return sales prevailing.
Lower prices are supported by recent lows and continue to hold
Short-term direction is scarce and equilibrium remains
Technical note (mid-term).
On the daily basis, a small return is being tested in a downtrend.
Moving averages are moving sideways and there are no clear signs of a turnaround.
Momentum weak but lacks oversold sentiment
impression
The market as a whole lacked new material, and the impression was that price movements were limited to mainly short-term sources.
Conscious of the dollar's strength, but quiet with no decisive indicators on the euro side
Market participants' attention is shifting to the next economic indicators and policy statements.
trade observations
Repeatedly selling back at highs and buying back short-term at lows is effective.
New entries at the halfway point are risky and should be handled with caution.
It is safe to maintain a light position until the next index release.
checklist
Check the schedule for the release of the Eurozone Business Confidence Index and price-related indicators.
Focus on US interest rate developments and trade-related reports.
Confirmation of reactions around key technical levels.
review
In the Tokyo time, the dollar was pushed down, but the momentum was weak, while in the New York time, the dollar was bought and the previous day's lows were tested.
summary
Small return attempts in the early stages, but overall lack of directional movement
Heavy upside is perceived towards the London time, with return selling prevailing.
A downward push was tested in the New York time, but no major breakthrough was achieved and trading closed.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time is supported by push-buying, but the price range is limited.
Return selling continues in European hours, dragging down the previous day's selling pressure.
In New York, the dollar tested the downside in a strengthening trend, but closed with a small movement at the end of the day.
Background and materials
The previous day's lower-than-expected UK CPI raised awareness of the possibility of a rate cut.
In the US, high interest rates and trade friction reports support the dollar.
A wait-and-see mood prevailed throughout the market ahead of the release of key indicators
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is heavy around the recent return highs, a level where return selling is a consideration.
Lower prices were bounced down near the previous day's lows and the price movement was within a range.
Short-term indicators remain weak and the market lacks momentum.
Technical note (mid-term).
The gradual downward trend continues on a daily basis.
The slope of the moving average has flattened and there is no clear trend change
Bollinger Bands are converging and the price range is narrowing.
impression
The pound continued to move upwards against a backdrop of slowing inflation
Markets are taking a cautious view of US economic indicators and the UK monetary policy outlook.
Environment likely to remain a mixture of wait-and-see and short-term adjustments until the next event.
trade observations
Limited upside potential, with a short-term trend of predominant return selling.
A phase in which buy-backs are likely to occur at the lows and short-term contrarianism is being recognised.
A strategy of keeping positions light in the face of lack of direction is effective.
checklist
Check the schedule of UK economic indicators and statements by BOE officials.
Watch US interest rate trends and the US dollar index.
Check reaction at key support and resistance levels.
review
Buying dominated from the European hour, with a brief stall in between, but closed higher in the New York hour, slightly above the previous day's highs.
summary
The Australian dollar is firm on the back of underlying resource market support.
Buying back prevails even amid pressure to buy the dollar as US interest rates remain high.
Overall, the mood remains cautious while testing the upside.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: small movements and lack of direction.
Buying strengthens in European hours on the back of firm resource prices.
In NY time, once a push was formed, the market rose again and made a slight high
Background and materials
A slight lull in the momentum of US dollar strength, even as US long-term interest rates remain high.
Wait-and-see attitude on the monetary policy front in Australia, with the prospect of additional interest rate hikes receding.
The Australian dollar was supported by continued stimulus measures in China and strong resource prices.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upper price is conscious near the previous day's high, with scattered profit-taking after the breakthrough.
The lower price is supported by the recent low price range, which makes it easy to push the price down.
Short-term uptrend line holds, momentum remains moderate
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend remains above the 20-day moving average and maintains a gradual upward trend.
Positioned near the upper end of the medium-term range, in a phase of struggling and searching for direction.
Approaching the upper limit of the Bollinger Band, and a slowdown in momentum is also being noted.
impression
Relative stability of the Australian dollar amid a lull in dollar strength and resilience in resource prices
In the absence of new policy material and economic indicators, position adjustment-led price movements were noticeable.
Overall, a quiet upward trend reflecting market participants' risk tolerance
trade observations
Beware of short-term profit-taking selling on the upside.
Short-term buying is effective during push formation, while checking the support zone.
Avoid unreasonable position expansion in pre-event range trading
checklist
Check the schedule of economic indicators for Australia and China.
Watch developments in long-term US interest rates and the US dollar index.
Confirmation of correlation with changes in prices of major resources (copper and iron ore)
FX Diary.