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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Trade statistics (customs clearance basis, pre-seasonal) | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | September Trade statistics (customs clearance basis, quarterly) | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Sep Consumer Price Index (CPI) [m/m]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Sep Consumer Price Index (CPI) [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Sep Consumer Price Index (CPI core index) [y/y]. | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), statement. |
Today's Outlook.
The previous day, the USDJPY weakened against the yen on the back of expectations of fiscal expansion following the birth of the Koichi Government. Today, while continuing this trend, the market is likely to be in a phase where profit-taking is likely to occur due to a lull in the rally. While developments in US interest rates will continue to support the dollar, attention should also be paid to price movements with a view to adjustment in the short term.
The previous day, the dollar continued to be bought on the back of firm US interest rates, which led to a downward trend from European hours to New York. In the short term, the dollar was able to pull back below 1.16 at times, but the return was limited. Today, the dollar is expected to continue to lead the market.
From Tokyo to Europe, the pound was sold off first, with the US interest rate firmness also adding to the dollar's buying power. On the other hand, there were also signs of buying back at the lower levels, and the market was reluctant to move lower at times. Today, in addition to developments in the dollar, positional adjustments ahead of UK fiscal-related indicators will also attract attention. Overall, the market is expected to search for a sense of direction within a short-term range.
On the previous day, selling prevailed through European hours, but there were some buy-backs at lower levels, and the price was seen to be bouncing back to the downside. Today, the market is expected to keep a close eye on US interest rates and resource-related developments, and search for a sense of direction within a short-term range.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Today's USD/JPY cues were limited due to a wait-and-see approach ahead of the BOJ meeting and domestic price indexes, as well as a lack of direction in US interest rates. In Tokyo, the yen was bought by safe-haven investors, followed by a mixture of returns and push-backs in both Europe and New York. Neither upside nor downside moves lasted, and in general the day lacked a sense of direction as the market remained within the range of adjustment.
Selling prevailed in the second half of the day in Europe, as investors became aware of the resilience of US interest rates and the sluggish growth of euro-zone indicators. In New York, on the other hand, the market regained all of its downward momentum on the back of higher stock prices and position adjustments. The market eventually closed slightly higher.
The previous day, GBP/USD selling was dominated by the UK Consumer Price Index, which came in below market expectations. During European hours, the pound fell all the way down and even fell below the milestone, but in New York, it was bought back on the back of higher stock prices and a lull in the US dollar. As a result, the market regained most of its downward movement and closed with a lack of direction in the closing stages of the session. Overall, the day was dominated by adjustments after temporary price movements in response to the index results.
The market swung up and down amid a lack of materials, but remained in a small range overall. In the European session, the market was dominated by a sell-back, while in New York, a buy-back was preceded by a positional adjustment. In the closing hours, the price converged around the milestone and the sense of direction was limited.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The yen weakened against the backdrop of expectations of fiscal expansion following the birth of the Takaichi Government, and the dollar remained at a high level
Assumed range
Around 151.00-152.30
tactics
Basic stance is to buy on the downside, but be cautious on the upside
Assuming a short-term adjustment phase, reactions around the milestone should be monitored.
trigger
A break above 152.30 could strengthen the momentum towards a weaker yen again.
Signal for short-term adjustment at a break below 151.00.
Key figures' statements in the morning in Tokyo and developments in US long-term interest rates are likely to be short-term turning points.
override condition
If the price falls clearly below 151.00 and holds on a closing basis, the push-buy strategy is temporarily off the table.
Refrain from pursuing the upside even if risk-off sentiment strengthens due to lower US interest rates and falling stock prices
risk event
National CPI (September) to be announced 23 Oct.
US initial unemployment insurance claims and other key indicators
Statements and intervention warning comments by foreign exchange authorities and government officials.
position management
Entry should be at a push around 151.20-151.50.
Assume a gain near 152.20 and a loss below 150.80.
Keep position size at 50-70% of normal and prioritise adjustments before the event.
checklist
Check whether the push around 151.00 can be maintained
Check the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Pay attention to foreign exchange statements by government and BOJ officials.
Market summary
The eurodollar is coming under downward pressure as US interest rates remain resilient and dollar buying prevails.
In the short term, the market was seen to move lower below 1.16, but the return remained limited.
Assumed range
Around 1.1550-1.1650
tactics
Basic stance is to focus on return sales and take a cautious approach to any rebound on the upside.
Even if a short-term adjustment rally is introduced, be aware of renewed selling pressure in the resistance zone.
trigger
Short-term return test above 1.1600
Downward momentum likely to strengthen below 1.1550
Key figures in the European hour and US interest rate developments could be a turning point.
override condition
Forego a return strategy if 1.1650 is clearly broken above and maintained on a closing basis.
Suspend the strategy even if US interest rates fall sharply and the dollar becomes a dominant seller.
risk event
US CPI to be released on 24 October (republication)
US initial unemployment insurance claims and other employment-related data.
Statements by ECB Executive Board members and other key figures (e.g. Deputy Governor De Guindos)
position management
Entry is considered selling on a return around 1.1600-1.1620.
Profit taking is based on the 1.1550 area and stop-loss is based on the 1.1650+ area.
Position size is 50-70% of normal, with reduced support before events.
checklist
Check whether the range of 1.1550-1.1650 can be maintained
Check the direction of long-term US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check what ECB officials have said and the market reaction.
Market summary
The previous day, the pound was predominantly sold against the backdrop of UK fiscal concerns and the dollar continued to be bought.
Buying back was seen at the lower end of the range, with the price bouncing back down to the 1.33s.
Assumed range
Around 1.3340-1.3500
tactics
For the time being, focus on return sales and carefully consider entry in the upper resistance zone.
Assume rotational trading within the range, with an eye on short-term buybacks at lower prices.
trigger
A break above 1.3500 could strengthen the return test.
Downward momentum increasing below 1.3340.
Watch out for UK fiscal headlines and US interest rate developments scheduled for European time.
override condition
A clear break above 1.3500 and holding on a closing basis would put the return scenario on hold.
Strategy also needs to be revised if concerns about UK public finances recede and a mood of risk appetite prevails
risk event
UK financial reports and statements by key government officials.
US used home sales and weekly unemployment insurance claims
Speculation on the re-release of the US CPI the following day
position management
Entry is considered for a return around 1.3460-1.3480.
Gains are based on gains around 1.3360 and losses above 1.3520.
Position size kept at 50-70% of normal and risk mitigation prioritised before events
checklist
Check whether the 1.3340-1.3500 range can be maintained
Check the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Keep a close watch on UK fiscal news and statements by key figures.
Market summary
On the previous day, the Australian dollar was sold predominantly through the European hour, but was bought back at the lower end of the range and the price bounced back downwards.
Overall, the situation continues to be strongly adjusting within a range, and it is difficult to get a clear sense of direction.
Assumed range
Around 0.6450-0.6520
tactics
For the time being, range rotation is the basis, with a focus on selling back to the market on the upside and short-term push-buying on the downside.
Flexibility is required to take advantage of short-term swings in the flow of waiting for materials
trigger
A break above 0.6520 could strengthen the return test.
Susceptible to renewed downward pressure below 0.6450.
Fluctuations in US interest rates and commodity prices (iron ore and gold) are likely to trigger short-term
override condition
A clear break above 0.6520 on a closing basis would put the return strategy on hold.
Downside assumptions are also invalidated if US interest rates fall sharply and dollar sales prevail.
risk event
US existing home sales and weekly unemployment insurance claims
Resource news, especially iron ore prices and Chinese economic indicators
Adjusting positions ahead of the re-release of the US CPI the following day.
position management
Entry is considered for a return around 0.6500-0.6510.
Gains are based on gains around 0.6460 and losses above 0.6530.
Keep position size to 50-70% of normal before an event and watch out for slippage when liquidity falls.
checklist
Check whether the 0.6450-0.6520 range can be maintained
Watch the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check resource market fluctuations (iron ore and gold)
AI postcards: today's market
review
Today's USD/JPY was in a wait-and-see mood ahead of the BOJ meeting and domestic price indexes, ending the day in a small range.
summary
In Asian hours, the yen was temporarily bought by safe-asset investors, but subsequently recovered as buyers returned to the market.
Slight comings and goings continued from Europe to New York in response to US interest rate and stock price movements.
The development lacked a sense of direction and remained within the range of adjustment.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time was dominated by the yen, which was temporarily pushed back into the market.
Buying back in after the European hour, and trading is again mainly in the range in New York
The price remained in a narrow range around the 151 yen level at the end of the day.
Background and materials
In Japan, expectations of the Takaichi Government's economic measures and the Ministry of Finance's checks and balances statements are mixed.
In the US, the government shutdown delayed the release of key statistics and interest rates lacked direction.
Increased wait-and-see ahead of the BoJ meeting, ahead of the national CPI at the weekend
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is likely to be around ¥152 and a return sale is likely to occur.
The lower range is supported at around JPY 151 and the focus in the short term is on maintaining the lower end of the range.
Volatility is declining, with short-term sources mainly trading.
Technical note (mid-term).
Direction is not clear, as the market continues to hover around the 20-day moving average
Weekly trend remains on an upward trend, but the ¥152 level barrier is likely to be a concern.
Temporary adjustment may intensify if the price falls below the 150 yen level.
impression
Markets quiet ahead of policy events, with limited price movement
Wary of intervention is a constant restraining factor.
Many participants were keen to assess trends after the event.
trade observations
Short-term trading is useful for small rotations after confirming the reaction of the upper and lower range limits.
Not a good time to take a large position and avoid times of low liquidity.
There is a decision to lighten the position in preparation for after the event passes.
checklist
Focus on key figures' statements and reports before the BOJ meeting.
Confirmation of the link between US interest rates and stock prices.
Determine whether the range of 151-152 yen can be maintained
review
Euro sales were dominated in the second half of Europe, but the euro was bought back in New York and closed slightly higher.
summary
Temporary dollar buying, weighed down by resilient US interest rates and sluggish growth in euro-zone indicators.
In New York, the US dollar's upside was weighed down by stock market rises and positional adjustments, while the euro held up.
Overall, it was a day of ups and downs, but lacked a sense of direction.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time was less active, with return selling prevailing from early Europe.
Downward pressure strengthened in the second half of Europe, but the downside was eliminated in New York as buyers returned to the market.
The wait-and-see attitude was again strengthened at the end of the day, and the market closed in slightly positive territory.
Background and materials
Sluggish growth in eurozone business and price indicators and fears of an economic slowdown triggered euro selling.
In the US, the government shutdown has delayed the release of key statistics, limiting material for the dollar.
The dollar adjusted in New York as risk assets recovered.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Upside is likely to be restrained around the moving average, with a conscious pressure to return to the market.
Lower prices are supported by the previous day's low levels and remain in a range in the short term
Volatility slightly reduced, direction in search phase
Technical note (mid-term).
In a daily downtrend, a short-term return is being tested in a downtrend.
Continued to move below the medium-term moving average, with heavy upside in the return phase
Failure to cross psychological milestones, with downward pressure still remaining
impression
Lack of new material in both the US and Europe, and overall movement within the range of adjustment
Position adjustment-driven price movements are noticeable and no clear trend has been formed.
Markets are entering a quiet period in anticipation of future policy events.
trade observations
In the short term, the focus is on selling back at the upper end of the range and buying at the lower end.
In view of reduced volatility, it is safe to take a cautious approach by limiting position sizes.
It is preferable not to force a chasing attitude while waiting for the resumption of index releases and key figures' statements.
checklist
Check Eurozone PMI and CPI related headlines.
Watch for any change in the linkage between US interest rates and stock prices.
Check for signals indicating a change in the medium-term trend.
review
Selling of the pound was dominated by lower-than-expected UK CPI, but the downward trend was reversed in New York by buyers.
summary
European hours saw a sharp fall in the pound following the results of the inflation indicator, accelerating selling, mainly by short-term sources.
Short-covering in New York, supported by a lull in the dollar and higher stock prices.
As a result, it maintained the previous day's low and closed with a lack of direction at the end of the day.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: wait-and-see, small movements.
Weak CPI results early in the European session led to stronger declines and a temporary break below the milestone.
In New York, the market rebounded on the back of dollar sales and higher stock prices, returning to within a range.
Background and materials
UK CPI falls short of market expectations, rekindling speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year.
On the US side, limited index releases and mainly short-term trading linked to interest rate and stock price trends
Uncertainty over the policy outlook led to continued adjustment-led price movements.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Reversal after sharp fall almost wipes out intraday range, direction back to neutral
Upside is likely to be restrained around short-term moving averages, with return pressure remaining.
Lower price rebounded near the previous day's low and is considered as short-term support
Technical note (mid-term).
Downward trend still prevails on a daily basis
Selling pressure is likely to remain in the return phase and there are insufficient materials for a trend reversal.
In the medium term, the market is developing a holding pattern at lower prices.
impression
Adjustment-led development after momentary pound sell-off following CPI results
Developments in US interest rates and stock markets are key to clarifying direction.
Markets are increasingly waiting for events, led by short-term price movements
trade observations
Level of awareness of return sales in the short term.
Safe to keep positions light as the rebound after sharp fluctuations continues.
Short-term buying is also possible after confirming support to the downside.
checklist
Check UK inflation-related indicators and key figures' statements.
Watch developments in US interest rates and the dollar index.
Determining the timing of entry based on the contraction and expansion phases of volatility.
review
While the market swung up and down amidst a lack of materials, it remained in a small range overall.
summary
No new economic indicators from Australia and markets lacked clues on monetary policy
The swing in US interest rates is also small and the exchange rate remains directionless.
After a predominant sell-back in Europe, positional adjustments led to a buy-back in New York.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time continues to see small movements within the previous day's range and a wait-and-see mood
The dollar's predominance in the European hour pushed it lower, but it was bought back in at lower levels.
In New York, buy-backs prevailed as interest rates settled, approaching the upper end of the range.
Background and materials
Lack of new material in Australia and a lull in Reserve Bank of Australia policy observations
In the US, the release of some indicators was delayed and there was an overall lack of trading material.
Commodity markets are mixed in terms of strength, with limited price movement in the Australian dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Stalemate market with awareness of upper and lower range limits
Continued offensive and defensive action around short-term moving averages, no clear sense of direction
Volatility is declining and awaiting the next trend
Technical note (mid-term).
Still within the range in the medium term
Signs of a trend reversal are scarce, with the focus on confirming support and resistance
Volume is also on a downward trend, with a wait-and-see attitude for a clear breakthrough.
impression
A day of wait-and-see tone in both Australia and the US, with a lack of new clues.
Market attention is shifting to future US interest rate developments and movements in risk assets.
Quiet price environment likely to continue for the time being
trade observations
In the short term, the range is considered to be returning at the upper end of the range and pushing at the lower end of the range
It is safe to limit position size during periods of reduced volatility.
Strategy to avoid over-positioning is appropriate as we wait for material.
checklist
Check the schedule of key indicators for Australia and the US.
Understand the direction of commodity markets (iron ore, gold and oil)
Observe volume and reactions around the upper and lower range limits
FX Diary.