Charts are automatically displayed as soon as the currency market opens for the relevant day and the necessary data has been obtained.
Please wait a moment for the display.
| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | ★★ | Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP), July-September [y-o-y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇨🇳 China | ★★ | Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP), July-September [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Sep Retail sales [y/y]. | graphical representation | |||||
| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Sept Industrial production [y/y]. | graphical representation |
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The yen has weakened slightly amid attention on the BoJ's policy policy policy and statements by the BoJ's commissioners. The previous day saw a test of the firmness of the downside, but the situation remains to be seen to what extent the return trend will be sustained.
The previous day was a confirmation of the upward pressure, but the market is not in a position to consolidate higher, so it is a phase to carefully assess whether the market will test higher again or whether the selling momentum will persist.
On the previous day, growth was sluggish even in the return phase, reaffirming the heaviness of the upside. On the other hand, there was a buy-back on the downside, and the price movement was easily accommodated by the traffic. Today is a phase where the momentum of the return and the reaction on the downside should be carefully assessed.
The previous day, the Australian dollar was tested lower until Europe, but the buying of the Australian dollar accelerated following President Trump's optimistic comments on China. We will see if this momentum continues today.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In Tokyo, the dollar was the main buyer in the early hours, but stalled as the market became aware of the weakness on the upside. During the European session, hawkish comments by a Bank of Japan member of the Deliberative Council were reported, and the yen temporarily gained ground. Later, reports of a coalition government agreement between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Restoration Association (JRA) led to a sell-off of the yen in anticipation of the launch of the Takaichi Government. During the US hours, there was a lack of clues and the market continued to struggle without a sense of direction.
The Tokyo session began with a predominantly buying trend, but after entering Europe, the market was dominated by a return to the market, with limited material in the New York session confirming the heaviness of the upside. The market was in a small range as the reaction around the milestone was assessed.
In Tokyo, the market was dominated by buyers and rose slowly. After entering Europe, the sell-off intensified, and the market lost some of its gains into New York. Overall, the market lacked a sense of direction, swinging up and down during the day but eventually returning to its original levels.
In Tokyo, the market was dominated by buyers and rose slowly. In Europe, the rise was reduced by a return sell-off, while in New York, the market was pushed higher and closed at a higher level.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The yen has weakened slightly as progress in Japan's ruling coalition has raised expectations of fiscal expansion.
On the other hand, the narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate gap and policy uncertainty will limit the upside potential of the dollar.
The previous day's price movements were small and lacked direction, and the market is cautiously watching to see if the momentum of the return is sustained.
Assumed range
Assumed around 149.50-151.50.
tactics
Keep in mind that range rotation is based on push-buying, in conjunction with return selling.
trigger
Exit level: above around 150.90.
Downside level: a break below the 149.70 area.
Time zone: focus on early Tokyo market movements.
override condition
Assumed negative price: a sharp rebound above the upper limit clearly to around 152.00 or a sharp fall below the lower limit to around 149.00.
risk event
Preliminary national consumer price index (to be released on 23 October) and statements related to the Bank of Japan.
position management
The size is kept at 50% of the standard ratio, the profit target is set at about half of the range width, and the stop-loss target is set near the bottom of the range if the lower limit is broken.
checklist
Japan ruling coalition press confirmed progress.
Monitoring of US-Japan interest rate differentials and Bank of Japan/US statements and events.
Observe how the dollar reacts to the key levels of 149.70 and 150.90.
Market summary
Direction limited as we await European indicators, but the ground to gauge the strength of the return phase.
Intermittent reactions to US interest rates and key figures' statements, with a mixture of upside heaviness and downside buy-backs.
The previous day reaffirmed the upward restraint, but also failed to consolidate the upside.
Assumed range
Assumed to come and go around 1.1600-1.1750
There is room for range expansion depending on events, but first priority is to attack and defend within the range.
tactics
Small increments based on range rotation due to unclear base tone.
Sell on the upside, buy on the downside, and withdraw as soon as the advantage wanes.
Short-term trials with the highest priority on avoiding deception in the first stages of the break.
trigger
The upside confirms the breakthrough around 1.1720 and the formation of a push.
A downside is confirmed by a break below the 1.1620 area and a return to the market to be firmly established.
Focus on price movements in the immediate aftermath of flash PMIs and key figures' statements in the European hour.
override condition
The assumption of an upper exit is invalid if the stay at the upper level does not continue and the time spent above the recent high is extremely short.
The downside assumption is invalid if the lower level fails to settle and rapidly reverts to within the range.
risk event
Eurozone Flash PMI
Views on statements and minutes of key Central Bank officials.
US business confidence indicators and inflation-related updates.
position management
Size should start at 50-70% of normal and be one step lighter before the event.
Gains are fixed in stages around the middle of the range or in front of the most recent swing.
Losses are mechanically executed against the level of trigger negation and the average profit/loss ratio is maintained above 1.
checklist
Headlines and breakdown of European PMIs confirm direction of travel.
Check the impact on the euro of simultaneous changes in US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check whether the upper and lower bounds of the range have been updated by liquidity changes from Asia to Europe
Market summary
Concurrent expectations of a slowdown in UK inflation and wages and uncertainty about the BoE's future, with a slow return but a tendency to buy back in on the downside.
The previous day reconfirmed the heaviness of the upside even in the return scene, and today we need to assess the momentum of the return and the reaction to the pushback.
High sensitivity to US interest rates and key figures' statements, watch out for direction going into European hours.
Assumed range
Assumed to come and go, mainly around 1.2620-1.2760
Range expansion is seen as likely to occur to a limited extent immediately after indicators and key figures' statements.
tactics
Based on range rotation, sell back at the top and buy at the bottom in small increments.
Break attempts are split to avoid initial deception.
trigger
The upside confirms the establishment and push formation around 1.2740.
A downside confirms a clear break below the 1.2640 area and a firm return to the market.
The time zone focuses on the volume increase phase in early London and early New York.
override condition
The assumption of an upper exit is invalid if the range does not continue to stay at the upper level and reverts back into the range early.
The downside assumption is invalid if the range fails to stay at the lower end and rebounds to quickly recover the centre of the range.
risk event
UK PMI bulletins and headline inflation-related indicators.
Statements from key Central Bank officials and updated views on parliamentary matters.
Interest rate trends based on US PMI and other US business confidence indicators.
position management
Start at 50-70% of normal and go one step lighter before and after the event.
Gains are fixed in stages before the middle of the range or before the most recent swing.
Losses are mechanically executed against the level of trigger negation and risk reward is managed consistently.
checklist
Surprise direction and breakdown of UK indicators.
Confirm simultaneous changes in US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check for updates above and below the range on entry into London.
Market summary
Comments by key US officials on China support market sentiment, with the Australian dollar seeing a strong buy-back after downward pressure.
Despite lingering uncertainty over the Chinese economy, rising stock markets and risk appetite support the Australian dollar
The previous day, after testing the downside in the European hours, the return strengthened into the New York hours.
Assumed range
Assumed around 0.6470-0.6570
Short-term trend to confirm lower prices, but to search for return momentum
tactics
Mainly push-buying, with a step-by-step approach to support around 0.65
Maintain a flexible attitude, prioritising profit-taking at higher prices and also being aware of range rotation.
trigger
An upside breakout is when the price is clearly above the 0.6560 area and established.
Downside is likely to tilt in favour of a return once a break below 0.6470 is confirmed.
Focus on initial direction in Tokyo and European hours.
override condition
The upside assumption is invalid if a new high is immediately followed by a fall back into the range.
The downside assumption is invalid if a rapid buyback occurs after the interruption and the 0.65 level is regained again.
risk event
Chinese economic indicators and policy-related reports.
RBA-related statements and inflation outlook update
Changes in the dollar index due to US interest rate trends and statements by key figures.
position management
Trade size set at 50-70% of normal, with lighter adjustments before and after index announcements
The profit target is near the midpoint of the range and the loss target is clearly below the recent low.
Careful selection of entry positions during events to prepare for widening spreads.
checklist
Check market reaction to Chinese economic indicators and key figures' statements.
Check for changes in RBA-related policy stance
Check the direction of the US dollar index and stock indices.
AI postcards: today's market
review
Despite some yen buying in European hours, the yen sold off in anticipation of the inauguration of the Takaichi Government, leading to a lack of direction.
summary
The dollar's buying dominance in the early stages of the session, but the upward pressure is perceived to be heavy, and the trend is likely to be a return to the market.
In Europe, hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan led to a temporary strengthening of the yen.
The market then picked up again, with the yen selling predominantly due to political factors.
US hours remained in a wait-and-see mood due to material difficulties.
Today's price movements
Tokyo falls back after a buying spree, moving up and down in the 150 yen range.
The yen strengthened in Europe, but in US hours, the dollar was again inclined to buy, and the yen was in a small movement.
The daily price range was limited and there was no clear direction.
Background and materials
A hawkish speech by a member of the Bank of Japan's Board of Governors was perceived as a factor in buying the yen.
Meanwhile, reports of a coalition government agreement between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Restoration Association have been a factor in selling the yen.
Prospects of a new Koichi Government raising expectations of political stability and supporting the USD/JPY.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area just around ¥150 is likely to be perceived as support.
Returns lined up in the first half of ¥151, acting as the upper limit of the range.
Range trading continues to be directionless in the short term
Technical note (mid-term).
The ¥152 level remains a strong upper resistance zone
Continued holding at high levels on a daily basis
A clear exit below ¥150 is the turning point in the medium-term trend.
impression
Impression that it is easy to be happy or sad about materials, and that trading by short-term sources is conspicuous.
Limited impact of fundamentals in a movement led by political factors
Markets are in a wait-and-see attitude as they search for the next clue
trade observations
The market is conscious of push-buying at the lower end of the range and selling back at the upper end of the range.
Keep positions light in the absence of direction and prioritise risk management in the event of sudden changes.
It is safe to forego aiming for breakthroughs and focus on price-matching.
checklist
Check for additional statements from Bank of Japan officials.
Watch US interest rate trends and stock market risk-orientation.
Assessing the market's reaction to the attack below ¥150.
review
Tokyo time was dominated by buying, but from Europe to New York, return selling prevailed, confirming the heaviness of the upside.
summary
Overall, there was a lack of material and directionless price movements continued.
The upward momentum slowed down after the European hour due to a return sell-off.
Trading was mixed around the milestones and remained range-bound throughout the day
Ahead of the event, there was a noticeable movement to adjust positions.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time started off on a firm note, with a slight buying trend.
Return selling pressure strengthened in European hours, restricting the upward movement.
The NY time lacked direction and remained in a limited price range.
Background and materials
Consciousness of statements made by ECB dignitaries, and receding speculation of additional easing.
A wait-and-see attitude prevailed ahead of the European PMIs.
Intermittent dollar buying linked to US interest rate trends.
Movements in major stock markets were also modest, with limited impact on the exchange rate.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around the most recent high is likely to be perceived as upside resistance
Lower prices are supported at recent lows and appear to be range-bound.
The short-term trend continues to lack direction.
Technical note (mid-term).
Possibly in an uptrend adjustment phase on a daily basis.
Weekly firings continue at high levels
Convergence of major moving averages, awaiting next sense of direction
impression
In the absence of significant material, the development was technically driven.
Markets are cautious ahead of the event and trading is subdued
Limited movement on both the upside and downside, with a wait-and-see mood prevailing
trade observations
In the short term, the market is likely to be beaten to the upside and is conscious of the need to return to the market.
A price-market-oriented response is more effective than a break-oriented response.
It is safe to keep positions light until there is a sense of direction.
checklist
Check for additional statements from ECB dignitaries
Focus on the preliminary Eurozone PMI results and market reaction.
Check trends in US interest rates and the dollar index.
review
Although buying was dominant in Tokyo hours, the pair was dominated by a return to the market from Europe to New York, with small movements around 1.34 at the end of the day.
summary
The day was directionless, with a series of rises and falls during the day.
The prospect of a US interest rate cut held back the dollar, while a wait-and-see attitude ahead of UK indicators limited the pound's upside.
As a result, the price range was limited and the main focus was on traffic movements.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session continued the trend from the previous weekend, rising to around 1.3420 with short-covering.
After the entry of the Europeans, the pound was pushed back to the 1.3360 level as the selling of the pound intensified.
The New York session saw a return of the dollar, and the pair continued to hover around 1.3400.
Background and materials
In the US, a pause in the rise in long-term interest rates and cautious comments by FOMC members restrained dollar buying.
Trading was limited in the UK as positions were adjusted ahead of CPI and other key indicators.
European stocks and oil prices also lacked direction, and external factors provided few clues.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.3350 is considered as downside support, while the upside is heavy at the 1.3430 level.
The short-term EMA remains flat, with limited signs of a trend change.
The RSI remains around 50 and continues to move within a range that lacks momentum.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the uptrend line since August has been maintained, but momentum has slowed.
The 20-day and 50-day lines are converging, making it difficult to find direction.
A clear break below 1.3300 could lead to a stronger adjustment, but at the moment the pair is in neutral territory.
impression
There was a strong wait-and-see mood awaiting materials, and active trading seemed to be restrained.
It will be interesting to see whether UK and US economic indicators later in the week will trigger a trend again.
Overall, price movements were mainly driven by short-term sources, with limited real demand flows.
trade observations
The market is suitable for day trading, taking a rebound within a narrow range.
Upward movement is slow and the prevailing view appears to be of a return sale mindset.
Volatility was lower in the short term and it was a quiet time before the index.
checklist
Confirmation that the range of 1.3350-1.3430 is maintained.
Reconfirm the schedule for the release of major indicators (UK CPI, US PMI).
Watch interest rate developments and the US dollar index from the New York time onwards.
review
The pair was dominated by buyers during the Asian hours, but the return of selling was strengthened in Europe and the pair was pushed back in New York and closed at around 0.6500.
summary
Expectations of an easing in trade tensions between the US and China underpinned the Australian dollar, which was also tailwinded by a weakening US dollar.
However, stagnation in the resource markets and uncertainty over the outlook for Australian employment and policy were perceived as factors restricting the upside.
As a result, there was no clear directional movement and the pair remained in a range around 0.6500.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours were dominated by buying, with the pair recovering to the 0.6500 level on one occasion.
The pair was temporarily pushed back to around 0.6450 from the low 0.6500s in European hours.
In the New York time, the pair was bought again and rallied to around 0.6500 and closed at a higher level.
Background and materials
Expectations for a resumption of dialogue in US-China trade emerged, providing a tailwind for risk currencies such as the Australian dollar.
At the same time, weak Australian employment figures and weak resource prices have emerged to heighten concerns about the outlook for policy rates.
In some respects, the softness in the dollar index and the decision to hold back on the dollar supported the Australian dollar, but not enough to create a clear trend.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The pair continues to struggle within the range of 0.6450-0.6500 and a cautious approach is required to break through.
The area around short-term moving averages (e.g. EMA 50) has been identified as a potential source of upside resistance.
There are observations that the RSI and others are overheating, and attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment from a sharp rise.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the market is considered to be in the process of forming a downward channel and is on medium-term range to downside caution until an upward break.
The area around 0.6400 is considered a downside guideline, while the area around 0.6645 is considered an upside guideline for the time being.
Trend reversals are likely to be triggered depending on developments in resource prices and comments from the Central Bank of Australia (RBA).
impression
Today's market gave a strong impression of "range-bound transitions awaiting materials", with limited movement in either direction jumping out of the range.
Improved risk appetite and a softer dollar have provided support for the Australian dollar, but have yet to translate this into a clear uptrend.
Going forward, Australian employment and China-related data and policy statements could be one turning point.
trade observations
In day trading, this is a situation where trading is mainly based around the 0.6450-0.6500 range.
It is easy to see a trend of return selling and then push-buying, and a realistic policy is to stick to taking small price gaps when it is difficult to see the direction.
However, there is a possibility of a range breakout in the event of sudden policy or economic developments, and stops should be set and risk managed carefully.
checklist
Sequential price movements within the 0.6450-0.6500 range.
Keep track of the schedule for the release of major economic indicators for China, Australia and the USA.
Monitor developments in resource prices (especially iron ore, etc.) and the dollar index (DXY).
FX Diary.