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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | Sep Consumer price index (HICP, revised) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | Sep Consumer price index (HICP core index, revised) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
On the previous day, while there was a buy-back in Tokyo hours, in New York, the dollar was sold predominantly against the backdrop of falling US interest rates and closed at a lower level. Today, we need to assess the momentum of the recovery and the stall point. Also, rebalancing flows need to be watched carefully as a weekend factor.
The previous day saw continued firmer trading in Tokyo and Europe, and from New York, buying prevailed on the back of lower interest rates. The market closed higher at the end of the day, testing the upside. Today is a phase where we need to assess the sustainability of the momentum and the depth of the push. Also, rebalancing flows as a weekend factor require caution.
The previous day was directionless, mainly in the European hours, as the market waited for materials; in New York, the market was bought back and closed slightly higher. Today, we need to carefully assess the momentum of the return and the depth of the pushback. Also, rebalancing flows need to be watched carefully as a weekend factor.
On the previous day, the pair continued to struggle from Tokyo to Europe amid a lack of materials, and also came and went in New York. The price continued to struggle around the 0.6500 area, and the market needs to assess the heaviness of the upside and the depth of the pushback. Also, rebalancing flows as a weekend factor need to be watched.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
During Tokyo hours, the dollar was predominantly sold against the backdrop of lower US interest rates and temporarily softened to the mid-JPY 149 level. The dollar continued to soften in the early European session, but in the latter half of the session, US stock futures halted their downward movement and the dollar started to rally on positive comments from President Trump regarding relations with China in the New York session. As a result, the pair ended the day having almost made up for the downside until European hours, and overall, the day was marked by a sense of resilience after the adjustment.
In Tokyo hours, euro buying was dominated by the softening of the US dollar, but in European hours, selling became more prevalent and the upside was restrained In New York hours, dollar buying strengthened as President Trump showed a positive attitude towards improving relations with China. As a result, the pair closed the day having lost all of its intraday gains, making it a day of heavy upside.
In Tokyo time, the pound was bought on the back of a softening US dollar, but in European time, selling became dominant and the pound began to fall; in New York time, President Trump's optimistic comments on China strengthened the dollar, but at the end of the day, there was a mixture of returns and pushes, and the day closed with little substance.
During Tokyo hours, the Australian dollar fell to around 0.6450 as the dollar was predominantly bought on the back of lower US interest rates. In the European hour, the dollar was bought back on the back of lower Australian bond yields and a pick-up in stock prices, while in the New York hour, the dollar was bought again following President Trump's positive comments on relations with China, but the buyers took over towards the latter half of the session. As a result, the market regained all the downside it had lost up to the early European session and closed higher.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
①upper range limit
②Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The combination of sluggish growth in US interest rates and the prospect of authorities being restrained makes it difficult to track the upside and downside.
The environment in Tokyo is prone to a return to the market and a pick-up in Europe, while New York is likely to swing back to an interest rate-driven environment.
The previous day, after buying back in Tokyo, dollar selling prevailed in New York and the low close is testing the sustainability of the momentum.
Assumed range
150.50-151.90 Front and rear
Below, 150.50 is a candidate for a push and a break is inspected for downside room to around 150.00.
On the upside, the focus is on whether the upside can be established at 151.90-152.00 in the return resistance zone.
tactics
Basis is based on range rotation, with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top.
Prepare for initial fakes and split in and split out.
Break follows small, and if stalls, withdraw quickly.
trigger
Above, watch for a test of the 151.90 direction with an established break above 151.60.
Below, look for a test of 150.50 on a break below 151.00.
Time zones are likely to react to interest rate headlines entering Europe and early New York.
override condition
If 151.90+ is established on multiple legs with volume, the return assumption is invalidated.
If the price falls clearly below 150.50 and remains stuck around 150.00, the push-buy assumption is invalidated.
risk event
US housing and business confidence indicators.
Dignitaries' statements and authorities' censorship headlines
Bias in dollar flows due to US bond auctions and sudden changes in yields
position management
Size suppressed to 50-70% of normal and added after checking continuous legs
Interest is executed in stages, with a 15-25 pips target.
Stop-losses are limited to 10-20 pips from the high and low immediately before the entry basis.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 151.00 and 151.60
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Availability of authority-related headlines and the degree of market incorporation
Market summary
Sluggish US interest rate growth has helped to support the euro as dollar strength pauses, while the ECB remains data-dependent
A phase of testing the sustainability of the momentum, with Tokyo and Europe struggling, and New York closing higher due to a buying trend.
Assumed range
1.1600-1.1680 Front and rear
Conscious of the push zone at 1.1600-1.1580 below and the return pressure at 1.1660-1.1680 above.
tactics
Basis is range rotation, with push-buying at lower levels
Small outflows are followed, and if growth slows, gains and partitions are made promptly.
trigger
Above, watch out for 1.1680 test with 1.1660 established above.
Below is below 1.1600, eyeing a test of 1.1580.
Easy to react to interest rate headlines and US indicators on entering Europe and early in New York.
override condition
Return assumption invalidated if a multiple leg with volume above 1.1680 is maintained.
If it stays clearly below 1.1580, the push-buy assumption is invalidated.
risk event
High-frequency indicators of US housing-related and business confidence systems.
ECB key figures' statements and headlines related to prices and demand in the euro area
Sharp changes in risk tolerance for equities and credit
position management
Size starts at 50-70% of normal and is added after continuous leg checks
The profit margin is split at 15-25 pips and the loss margin is 10-20 pips before the recent high and low.
Hold back new orders before and after the index, and always set a stop-loss for existing ones.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Availability of ECB-related headlines and the degree of market incorporation
Market summary
While the dollar's strength is pausing due to sluggish US interest rate growth, on the UK side, the outlook for slowing wages and inflation and the BOE's cautious approach are restraining the upside.
The previous day saw a struggle mainly in the European hours, with a buy-back in New York and a slightly higher close, a phase that should confirm the sustainability of the momentum and the depth of the push.
Assumed range
1.3350-1.3450 Front and rear
On the downside, 1.3350 is a candidate for a push, while a break should be inspected for a reaction around 1.3330.
Above, a return pressure is envisaged in the 1.3430-1.3450 zone.
tactics
Basis is based on range rotation, with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top.
Adjust size according to changes in liquidity in the time zone, and rotate with early gains if growth slows down.
Enter small for a break and withdraw immediately if it does not last.
trigger
Above, the upside is a firming above 1.3430, with a view to testing 1.3450.
Below, a clear downside of 1.3350, watch for a test of 1.3330.
Easy to react to interest rate headlines and US indicators on entering Europe and early in New York.
override condition
Return assumption invalidated if multiple legs hold above 1.3450.
If it stays clearly below 1.3330, the push-buy assumption is invalidated.
risk event
High-frequency indicators of US housing-related and business confidence systems.
BoE key figures' statements and UK price and demand-related headlines.
Changes in stock market risk tolerance and sudden changes in US interest rates.
position management
Initial response reduced to 50-70% of normal and added after confirmation of successive legs.
Profit taking is split between 15-25 pips approx. to secure a portion of unrealised profits.
Stop-losses are limited to 10-20 pips from the high/low immediately before the event and always set a stop-loss before the event.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.3350 and 1.3430
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Availability of BOE-related headlines and the degree of market incorporation
Market summary
Limited direction due to a mix of sluggish US interest rate growth and the RBA's data-dependent stance.
The previous day, after continued firings in Tokyo-Europe, the traffic continued in New York and the market closed slightly lower.
Continued attack and defence of the 0.6500 area, with strength and weakness dependent on materials and time of day flows.
Assumed range
0.6480-0.6560 Front and rear
Below, the push zone of 0.6500 and 0.6480 is considered.
Above, check for return pressure at 0.6540-0.6560.
tactics
Basis is based on range rotation, with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top.
Ensure mobility by entering and taking profits in instalments in anticipation of initial fakes
Breaks are followed in small increments and withdrawn quickly if growth slows down.
trigger
Above, watch for 0.6560 test with 0.6540 established above.
Below is below 0.6500, looking to test 0.6480.
More likely to react to interest rate headlines and US indicators on entering Europe and early in New York.
override condition
Return assumption invalidated if multiple legs hold above 0.6560
If it stays clearly below 0.6480, the push-buy assumption is invalidated.
risk event
High-frequency indicators of US housing-related and business confidence systems.
RBA key figures and Australian prices and demand-related headlines.
China-related news and sudden changes in resource prices.
position management
Size started at 50-70% of normal and added after continuous foot checks
Gains are accumulated in installments of 10-20 pips approx.
Stop-losses are limited to 10-20 pips from the high and low immediately before the event, and a stop-loss limit is strictly enforced before the event.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 0.6500 and 0.6540
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
RBA-related headlines and availability of news from China
AI postcards: today's market
review
The dollar was sold off in Tokyo and early Europe, but in the New York time, the dollar was bought by the Chinese government in response to comments made against China, and the dollar almost regained its lost ground and closed lower.
summary
The dollar briefly softened in the mid-149 yen range, before buying back in New York and recovering to the 150 yen level.
Overall, it was a day of adjustments and reaffirmation of the firmness of the downside, and there were indications of a search for a turning point in the flow.
Although directional movements were limited, the amplitude of price movements widened slightly throughout the day.
Today's price movements
In Tokyo, the dollar was sold against the backdrop of lower US interest rates, falling to around 149.50.
The softness continued in early Europe, but a rebound in US stock futures in the second half of the day led to stronger buying.
In New York, President Trump's comments on China spurred dollar buying, which moved back to around 150.20.
Background and materials
A temporary drop in US interest rates and a softening of the US dollar index were early downside factors.
The cautious stance of US officials and risk aversion temporarily encouraged yen buying.
Market sentiment has picked up after President Trump expressed a positive attitude towards improving relations with China.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 149.50 area acted as short-term support and rebounded towards the end of the day.
The area around 150.20 is being considered as an immediate return guideline.
In the short term, the moving averages are converging and the shape of the range continues to be firmer.
Technical note (mid-term).
The uptrend that has been in place since the end of September has paused, suggesting the start of an adjustment phase.
Resistance zones overlap between the mid-150 yen and 153 yen levels, and upward pressure is conscious.
On the other hand, it is easy to push the price below 149 yen, suggesting a continuation of the range tone.
impression
The impression is that the market reacted quickly to policy statements, interest rate developments and other materials, and that short-term position adjustments were the main focus.
The development of buying back into the market while testing the downside reflects investors' cautious risk management stance.
US economic indicators and statements from later in the week will be key to a clearer sense of direction.
trade observations
Short-term buy-backs at the pushpoint were predominant, rather than attempts to break support.
During the rebound phase in New York time, short-term longs worked after confirming a recovery to the ¥150 level.
The price range narrowed at the end of the day, giving the impression that trading had settled down due to positional adjustments.
checklist
Check if 149.50 support can be held
Watch for a breakthrough of the 150.20-150.50 resistance zone.
Confirmation of US interest rate developments and changes in risk appetite at the start of the week.
review
In Tokyo, the softening of the US dollar led to buying of the euro, while in Europe, selling turned to the upside and in New York, buying of the dollar in response to comments made against the Chinese gave up the gains.
summary
Upward movement in the early stages on the return of risk appetite, but from Europe onwards, there was a sense of upward pressure.
In New York, the euro was sluggish as the dollar was bought, offsetting the intraday gains.
The end of the day was difficult to establish a sense of direction and there was a strong short-term traffic colour.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time was dominated by buying, with some testing around 1.17.
European hours saw a return sell-off, with upside restrained at the 1.17 level.
In New York, the dollar was bought and pushed back to the second half of 1.16 in response to comments made against China.
Background and materials
Euro supported by slightly lower US interest rates and early risk appetite
In Europe, return selling prevailed due to profit-taking and position consolidation ahead of the index.
In New York, positive comments on relations with China were reported and dollar buying strengthened.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.1700 is a return target and is likely to be pushed back if the market fails to break above it.
Focus is on whether the downside can be maintained between 1.1670 and around 1.1680.
Short-term moving averages are flat, suggesting range formation
Technical note (mid-term).
Continues to hover within a wide range from the high 1.16s to just before 1.18
On the upside, the market is aware of the heaviness around 1.18 and the reaction should be observed on the downside in the mid-1.16s.
Momentum is likely to be closer to neutral and direction will depend on the material.
impression
It was a day of quick reactions to material, with the initiative shifting from hour to hour.
The impression is that returns and pushes were mixed and the inclination of the position was not significant.
Interest rates and the line-up of indicators remain in focus for the next business day
trade observations
Short-term push-backs were more likely to work during the upswing in Tokyo.
In Europe, it was safe to follow lightly in line with the return-dominant trend.
In New York, fast price movements and profit-dominant rotation were effective.
checklist
Confirmation that the lower band of 1.1670-1.1680 can be maintained.
Confirmation of change in return pressure between 1.1700 and 1.1730.
Confirmation of changes in the correlation between US interest rates and US and European indicators.
review
In Tokyo hours, the pound was bought on the back of a softer dollar, but selling was predominant in European hours, and in New York, the dollar was bought in response to President Trump's comments against China.
summary
The pound was bought higher in the early stages, reflecting risk appetite, but from Europe onwards, profit-taking was heavy.
In New York, the pair was held back by temporary dollar buying and was slightly higher at around 1.34.
The day was directionless and the daily candle closed with a small substance.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session saw the pair rise to around 1.3450 on lower US interest rates.
In European hours, risk aversion pushed the pair back to just below 1.34.
In New York, President Trump's comments on China strengthened dollar buying and continued the upward trend.
Background and materials
In the US, concerns about the government shutdown and financial instability were a factor in the volatility of the US dollar market.
On the UK side, the slowdown in the economic outlook is a factor limiting the upward movement of the pound.
The US administration's comments led to a dollar rally, with dollar buying also prevailing against the pound.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The pair is restricted to the upside around 1.3450, with a short-term return to the upside.
1.3400 is noted as a near-term support level.
Short-term moving averages are trending sideways, suggesting a firmer market.
Technical note (mid-term).
The uptrend since September has paused and the adjustment phase continues.
The focus is on whether the medium-term support line, located around 1.34, can be maintained.
The upside is overlapped by a resistance zone around 1.36, where return pressure remains.
impression
There was a mix of buying and selling throughout the day, with limited directional movement in the pound.
US political statements were a short-term factor, and reduced liquidity also had an impact.
The market is considered to be in the process of determining the consistency between interest rates and economic indicators.
trade observations
Short-term buying was effective on the upside in Tokyo time, but return selling prevailed from Europe onwards.
The early gains seemed to have paid off as the dollar turned to buy in New York.
With no sense of direction, the situation was dominated by short-term trade.
checklist
Confirmation that support for 1.3400 will be maintained.
Conscious of resistance zone above 1.3500.
Watch developments in US interest rates and UK business indicators.
review
The Australian dollar was predominantly bought by the dollar from Tokyo to early Europe, but from the second half of Europe onwards it was bought back, and the Australian dollar eventually recovered its losses and closed lower.
summary
While directionless during the day, there was a noticeable buy-back from the second half of the European
The Australian dollar remained firm despite a temporary strengthening of the dollar in the New York time.
Overall, the market swung within the range of 0.6450-0.6500, but finished higher.
Today's price movements
The Australian dollar fell to around 0.6450 in Tokyo hours as the dollar was predominantly bought on the back of lower US interest rates.
In the European session, the Australian bond yields stopped falling and the stock market rebounded, leading to a buy-back and a recovery to the 0.6480 level.
In New York, the Australian dollar was also bought and ultimately held higher, although the US dollar was bought in response to President Trump's comments on China.
Background and materials
A temporary drop in US interest rates triggered dollar buying back, which was an early downside factor.
On the Australian side, the calming of domestic bond yields was a supportive factor, and there was an awareness of the trend towards a recovery in risk appetite.
Market sentiment improved following President Trump's comments, which led to buying in both the dollar and the Australian dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
0.6450 acted as short-term support and rebounded towards the end of the day
0.6500 was considered as an upside guideline and a test of the upside was seen.
Short-term shape with converging moving averages and a continued firmer tone
Technical note (mid-term).
The downward trend since mid-September has slowed down and formed a holding pattern at the bottom
If the level above 0.6500 is established, there is room to test the 0.66 level, while the structure is likely to be pushable in the low 0.64s.
Medium-term direction is difficult to establish and the trend will continue to move within the main ranges
impression
Markets were sensitive to news on US interest rate developments and US-China relations on the day.
The Australian dollar is highly correlated with the US dollar and is prone to short-term price movements on a material-by-material basis.
Aggressive positions appeared subdued, even as risk sentiment continued to improve
trade observations
Short-term buying functioned at the lows in Tokyo time, capturing the rebound.
Long positions prevailed in the second half of the European year due to buying back in the second half of the year.
In the NY time, the market continued to hover at high levels and the flow was mainly short-term trade.
checklist
Check if 0.6450 support can be maintained
Watch for the presence or absence of fixation above 0.6500.
Ongoing checks on the impact of US interest rates and China-related statements
FX Diary.