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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | β | Aug Machinery orders [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π―π΅ Japan | β | Aug Machinery orders [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Sep New jobs |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Sept Unemployment rate |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β β | Aug Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Aug Manufacturing production index [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Aug Industrial production [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Aug Industrial production [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct NAHB Housing Market Index |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | πͺπΊ Europe | Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), statement. |
Today's Outlook.
On the previous day, the market was sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but was again dominated by selling in New York. The firmness of the lower price has yet to be confirmed and today is a phase where we will see where the lower price can consolidate.
On the previous day, the market was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and although it was pushed down in New York, it was bought again and closed at a higher level. However, it did not give the impression of consolidating above, and it remains to be seen where the price will remain high.
On the previous day, the market was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down once in New York, the market was bought again and closed at a higher level. However, the upward price has yet to be confirmed, and it remains to be seen where the price will remain at a high level.
On the previous day, the pair was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down in New York, it was bought again to reduce the downward movement. Although the upside remains heavy, it cannot be said to be dominated by selling, and we need to assess the strength and weakness of the pair through the attack and defence of the 0.65 area.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Buying back prevailed in Tokyo hours. In Europe, the market once bounced back, but in New York, dollar selling strengthened against the backdrop of falling US interest rates and the return was limited. The market closed at a lower level at the end of the day.
The euro was supported by a pause in the dollar's strength, as the sluggish growth in US interest rates and the ECB's data-dependent stance became more conscious. In Tokyo and Europe, the market remained directionless as it awaited for more information, while from New York, buying was prevalent against the backdrop of lower US interest rates and there were scattered flows to pick up the push. At the end of the day, the market closed at a higher level while testing the upside.
While the UK's wage and inflation slowdown and the BoE's cautious stance restrained the upside, sluggish growth in US interest rates paused the dollar's appreciation. In European hours, the market continued to lack a sense of direction as it awaited materials. In New York, the dollar was seen testing the upside on the back of buying, but closed slightly higher at the end of the day.
Direction was limited due to sluggish growth in US interest rates and a stance dependent on RBA data, as well as awareness of developments in China and swings in resource prices. From Tokyo to Europe, the market remained in a firmer state as it awaited information, while in New York, the market continued to move back and forth. The market closed slightly lower amid a slow return and awareness of the heaviness of the upside.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
The upper limit has no line that is likely to be conscious, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be conscious.
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
US interest rate swings and authority restraint remain the main factors, with intervention warnings likely to keep the upside down.
On the previous day, the market was sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but selling again prevailed in New York, and the firmness of the lower price has not yet been confirmed.
Today, the 151 yen level is expected to be attacked by the depth of actual demand flows and the rotation of short-term sources.
Assumed range
Around 150.50-152.00
Below, the focus is on whether 150.50 can be maintained, and if it breaks, room for confirmation around 150.00.
On the upside, 151.90-152.00 is the return target, and if exceeded, the next resistance is around 152.70.
tactics
Basis is a combination of push-buy and return selling around a range rotation.
Watch for a reaction at 150.50-151.00, but beware of a slower return at 151.90-152.00 on the upside.
Break phase follows in stages with reduced size
trigger
Easy to buy back short-term on a break above 152.00.
Downward pressure is likely to strengthen below 151.00, watch for a move close to 150.50.
Note the actual demand in the morning in Tokyo and the time frame for US indicators and key figures in the NY hour.
override condition
If the closing price remains clearly above 152.00, the return priority is temporarily reviewed.
Suspend the push-buy assumption in the event of a series of lows clearly below 150.00.
Switch to waiting for a break if volume continues to fall and prices continue to contract
risk event
US economic indicators and statements by Fed officials
Changes in the comments and stance of the Japanese authorities on foreign exchange.
Geopolitical headlines and sudden changes in stock markets
position management
Position size starts at half the normal size and is increased or decreased in steps when the trigger is established.
Set a profit target of 20-30 pips and a stop-loss target at the latest high and low out of the market.
Maximum of two entries in the same direction, with a cooldown for consecutive failures
checklist
151.00 and 151.90-152.00 board thickness and reaction
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Japanese authorities' statements and suggestions of intervention and how the market perceives them
Market summary
The euro remains resilient amid a pause in the dollar's strength as US interest rates remain sluggish and the ECB takes a wait-and-see approach.
After a buying spree in Tokyo and Europe, the market was once pushed down in New York, but then buyers returned and the market closed at a higher level.
However, the upward price has not yet been confirmed, and the immediate focus is to determine the level of the higher price.
Assumed range
Around 1.1580-1.1660
Below confirms the thickness of the push at 1.1580-1.1600.
Above, inspect for a slowdown in returns around 1.1630-1.1660.
tactics
Basically, priority is given to push-buying while assuming range rotation.
On the downside, check for a reaction around 1.1600 before entering the market.
Combined with short-term return selling on the upside where a slowdown in returns was seen.
trigger
1.1660 above which short-term buy-backs are likely to enter the market.
Stop selling is likely to occur below 1.1580, watch out for downward pressure.
Note the widening of the blurring before and after the index on entering Europe and during the New York time.
override condition
If the closing price remains clearly above 1.1660, the return assumption will be revised.
Suspend the push-buy assumption in the event of a series of lows clearly below 1.1560.
Switch to waiting for a break if volume declines and the price range continues to narrow.
risk event
ECB key figures' statements and Eurozone inflation-related headlines.
Key indicators and statements by Fed officials that affect US interest rate trends
Spillover of risk aversion due to geopolitical links and sudden changes in stock markets
position management
Initial movement starts at half the normal size and increases or decreases in stages
Gains are taken in 20-30 pips, and losses are mechanically executed at the most recent high-low breakout.
Maximum of two re-entries in the same direction to avoid consecutive losses.
checklist
Check boards and reactions at 1.1600 and 1.1660.
Check the direction of US interest rates and the dollar index from time to time.
Inspect the tone of ECB-related headlines and the degree of market incorporation.
Market summary
A mixture of sluggish US interest rate growth and cautious BoE stance, with the pound returning but with a sense of upside potential.
Bidding in Tokyo-Europe, once pushed back in New York, the market closed at a higher level.
The upside is not yet confirmed, and the focus today is to determine the level of the highs.
Assumed range
Around 1.3330-1.3450
Below confirms the thickness of the push at 1.3330-1.3350.
Above, inspect for a slowdown in returns around 1.3400-1.3450.
tactics
The basic principle is to prioritise push-buying based on range rotation.
Combined with short-term returns in the upper price band, with follow-up in stages.
Reduce size before and after the index and watch the reaction before participating.
trigger
1.3460 above which short-term buy-backs are likely to be made.
Stop selling is likely to occur below 1.3330 and beware of downward pressure.
Note the time of arrival in London and the time of US indicators and key figures' statements in the NY hour.
override condition
If the closing price remains clearly above 1.3460, the return assumption will be revised.
Suspend the push-buy assumption in the event of a series of lows clearly below 1.3300.
Switch to waiting for a break if the price range shrinks and volume declines further.
risk event
Further reports on UK employment and price-related issues and statements by BoE officials.
Key indicators and statements by Fed officials that affect US interest rate trends
Spillover of risk aversion due to stock market and geopolitical headlines
position management
Initial movement starts at about half the normal size and increases or decreases in steps with the establishment of the trigger.
Gains are taken in 20-30 pips, and losses are executed mechanically at the most recent high-low breakout.
Maximum of two re-entries in the same direction to avoid consecutive losses.
checklist
Thickness and reaction at 1.3330 and 1.3400-1.3450
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Tone of BOE-related headlines and the degree of market incorporation
Market summary
A mix of sluggish US interest rate growth and the RBA's cautious stance has led to the Australian dollar testing a return, but with a sense of upside potential.
The previous day, the market was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down once in New York, it was bought again and closed lower.
Currently, the trend continues to be around 0.65, and we are in the process of seeing which of the flows will prevail.
Assumed range
Around 0.6480-0.6620
Below confirms the thickness of the push at 0.6500 and 0.6480.
Above, inspect for a slowdown in return around 0.6600-0.6620.
tactics
Basis is based on range rotation, with priority given to push-buying at lower levels.
Combined with short-term return selling in the upper price band, waiting for a sign of a slowdown in returns.
Reduce size immediately before the event and phase in participation after seeing the response.
trigger
Assuming a phase of easy short-term buy-backs on a break above 0.6620.
Stop selling likely below 0.6480 and be wary of downward pressure.
Be aware of increased volatility in late Tokyo and early London, and around the New York indexes.
override condition
If the closing price continues to consolidate above 0.6640, the return assumption will be revised.
If the price falls clearly below 0.6460 and becomes a consecutive low, the push-buy assumption is put on hold.
Switch to waiting for a break if the price range shrinks and volume declines further.
risk event
Further Australian employment-related reports and key RBA officials' statements.
Interest rate changes due to major US indices and statements by Fed officials
Sentiment change due to rapid changes in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
position management
Initial movement starts at half the normal size and increases or decreases in steps with the establishment of the trigger.
Gains are estimated at 20-30 pips, and losses are executed mechanically at the most recent high/low breakout.
Maximum of two re-entries in the same direction to avoid consecutive losses.
checklist
Plates and reactions at 0.6500 and 0.6600-0.6620
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Headline tone of RBA statements and Chinese indicators
AI postcards: today's market
review
Tokyo was dominated by buy-backs, but sluggish in Europe, and US dollar sales strengthened in New York as US interest rates fell and the dollar closed at a lower level.
summary
Sluggish growth in US interest rates leads to a pause in the dollar's appreciation and the upside remains heavy.
The authorities are hesitant to follow the initial break to the highs and the initial break is difficult to sustain.
Range-focused day with significant back and forth between 151.00 and 151.60.
Today's price movements
Tokyo is supported by a push to the downside, but a slowdown in returns is evident in Europe.
Selling in New York strengthened as interest rates fell and returns were limited.
The close was at a low of around 151.00.
Background and materials
Heady environment for US interest rates and waiting for indicators, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.
On the Japanese side, authorities' censorship and interventionist speculation restrained the upside.
Changes in risk appetite of equities affect short-term flows
Technical memorandum (short term)
Upside: 151.60-151.90 is the resistance zone for the return.
Downside divergence at 151.00 in the near-term and room to test 150.50 on a break.
Short-term MAs are flat and oscillators are in neutral territory
Technical note (mid-term).
Return preference remains unless 152.00 is established
150.00 is a psychological milestone and a level to measure the sustainability of the downward pressure.
The daily trend suggests a slowdown in the trend, with small entities and prominent whiskers.
impression
Sensitivity to interest rate headlines is high and price movements seem to be volatile, even though we are waiting for materials.
Initial direction of movement is easily reversed and should be followed carefully.
trade observations
Within the range, rotation centred on a push around 151.00 and a return around 151.60.
Breaks enter small and if they do not continue, withdraw immediately.
Reduce size and manage stop-losses tighter before and after events.
checklist
Confirmation of board thickness and execution street at 151.00 and 151.60.
Confirmation of the same directionality of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check for the presence of authority-related headlines and the degree to which the market has factored them in
review
The euro was supported and closed higher by a lull in US dollar strength as US interest rates remained sluggish and the ECB became aware of the ECB's data-dependent stance
summary
Although the direction of the market is limited, there are more buying-dominant time frames, and the market is more likely to pick up the push.
Break is unlikely to continue pending events and price range is stretched or contracted depending on the time of day
Today's price movements
Tokyo firm in small movements and slowly rising in early Europe.
Late in Europe, the market was once sluggish, but in New York, as interest rates fell, the buyback strengthened and the market closed at a higher level.
Background and materials
Slowing momentum in US indicators and the prospect of interest rates coming to a head restrain the dollar.
ECB continues to depend on data, hawkish-dove observations mixed
Risk tolerance of equities and credit influences short-term flows
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is the 1.1660-1.1680 return resistance zone.
The downside is 1.1600-1.1580 is a potential push point and a break is inspected at 1.1550.
Technical note (mid-term).
Cautious on upside unless 1.1700 is established.
Daily trend continues to be on the upper side of the range and direction is awaited for the next material.
impression
Initial fakes are easy to fake and following up is effective in terms of splitting and clarifying withdrawal criteria.
Note the high sensitivity to interest rate headlines.
trade observations
Basis is range rotation with push-back to the downside and return to the upside.
Prioritise turnover efficiency by taking profits early if growth slows, and follow breaks in a small way.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Availability of ECB-related headlines and degree of incorporation
review
Europe was directionless, awaiting materials, and closed slightly higher due to buy-backs in New York.
summary
Sluggish US interest rate growth pauses US dollar strength and supports the pound.
On the other hand, the UK's wage and inflation slowdown and the BoE's cautious stance restrain the upside.
Today's price movements
Tokyo is small, with a steady rise in Europe in the early part of the day, but sluggish in the latter part of the day.
In New York, buy-backs prevailed at times and the market ended slightly higher with a test of the upside.
Background and materials
The ground is likely to be linked to swings in high-frequency indicators such as US housing and business confidence and US Treasury yields.
The UK side continues to have a wait-and-see attitude to the strength of the real economy and is sensitive to headlines.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upper band is assumed to be a return pressure at 1.3430-1.3450.
The downside is 1.3350-1.3330 is a potential push point and 1.3300 is a psychological milestone
Technical note (mid-term).
Range reversion is the main focus if there is no multi-leg fixation above 1.3450.
Conscious of a downward shift in the range if the range remains below 1.3330.
impression
Easy to get caught up in initial fakes; important to confirm the same directionality of time and interest rates
The price range is limited and the short-term impression is that rotation in the upper and lower bands is likely to work.
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, with push-back at the bottom and return at the top
Profit taking is managed by a 15-25 pips split and stop-losses are managed at 10-20 pips before the latest high and low.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 1.3350 and 1.3430
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Availability of BOE-related headlines and the degree of market incorporation
review
The market was slightly lower in Tokyo and Europe, with a slow return to the market in New York after a brief period of waiting for materials.
summary
Sluggish US interest rate growth pauses US dollar strength, while Australian dollar upside is limited.
Mixed strength and weakness due to intermittent effects of developments in China and resource price swings.
The market continues to attack around 0.6500 and the direction is awaiting the next material.
Today's price movements
Tokyo moves slightly lower and remains resilient, but the upside is sluggish.
European attempts to return to the range failed to gain momentum and returned to the range.
New York reacts to interest rate headlines and continues to trade back and forth, slightly lower at the end of the day.
Background and materials
RBA continues to be data-dependent and guidance limited
Slowing momentum in US indicators and the prospect of interest rates coming to a head restrain the dollar's upside.
China-related news and resource price fluctuations influence sentiment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is the 0.6540-0.6560 return resistance zone.
The downside is 0.6500-0.6480 is a candidate for a push and a break is inspected at 0.6450.
Short-term oscillators have a small bias in the neutral range
Technical note (mid-term).
Verification of room in the direction of 0.6600 with multiple leg fixation above 0.6560.
Stagnation below 0.6480 indicates a downward shift of the range.
The daily trend is small in substance and trend judgement is awaited for the next material.
impression
Initial fakes are easy to fake and following up is effective in terms of splitting and clarifying withdrawal criteria.
Keep in mind the spread and slippage during times when the board is thin.
trade observations
Basis is based on range rotation, with push-buy at the bottom and sell back at the top.
Focus on turnover efficiency by dividing the profit margin into 10-20 pips.
Limit stop-losses to 10-20 pips before recent highs and lows, and reduce size before events.
checklist
Board thickness and initial reaction at 0.6500 and 0.6540
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
RBA-related headlines and availability of news from China
FX Diary.