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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | β | Sep Consumer Price Index (CPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¨π³ China | β | Sep Producer price index (PPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | Aug Industrial production [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | Aug Industrial production [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct New York Fed Manufacturing Index |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | US District Fed Economic Report (Beige Book) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day, the market lacked a sense of direction while keeping an eye on developments in US interest rates, and a small range of prices continued. The market is prone to swinging either upwards or downwards, so continued attention should be paid to the initial price movements.
On the previous day, the euro was sold off through the European hours, but during the New York hours, there was a buying back and a consolidation to the downside. It is now time to see at what level the upside will become heavier and the sell-off will strengthen.
The previous day, a slightly weaker UK wage index led to a predominant selling of the pound in the European hours, but a lull in the dollar's strength in the New York hours led to a buying back and a consolidation to the downside. Today, it will be interesting to see whether the process of testing the upside will strengthen the return selling.
The previous day, the Australian dollar was sold off through the European hours, but in the New York hours, it was bought back and narrowed its decline in response to a lull in the dollar's strength. Although not consolidating lower, the market is confirming the heaviness of the lower price in the short term, and today is a phase where the momentum of the return should be assessed while being aware of the resistance to the upper price.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
It was sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but was again dominated by selling in New York. Firmness to the downside was yet to be confirmed and the focus was on a reaction at 151.00.
The euro was supported by the ECB's wait-and-see attitude and a lull in US interest rate growth, as well as a pause in the dollar's strength. Buying was ahead from Tokyo to Europe, and although it was pushed back from Europe to early New York, it was bought again and closed at a higher level.
The US dollar's strength was halted by sluggish growth in US interest rates, while the slowdown in UK wage growth and the BoE's cautious stance were noted. The dollar was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and then slowed in the second half in Europe, before being pushed down in New York, where it was bought again and closed higher.
The sluggish growth in US interest rates has helped support the Australian dollar as the dollar's strength has eased. The Australian dollar was bought from Tokyo to Europe, and after being pushed down in New York, it was bought again, reducing the downward movement. Although the upward pressure remained, the market closed in a manner that could not be described as predominantly selling.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
The upper limit has no line that is likely to be conscious, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be conscious.
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day, there was no new sense of direction despite awareness of the US interest rate trend, and the market remained in a small range in the low Β₯152's.
Price movements remain limited mid-week due to a combination of receding US rate cut expectations and the Bank of Japan's cautious stance.
Short-term changes may occur today in a time of heightened liquidity ahead of US economic indicators and key figures' statements.
Assumed range
Around 151.80-152.70
The focus is on whether the upside can exceed 152.70.
The downside is whether the price falls below 151.80, which is an indication of an adjustment.
tactics
In the short term, the basic policy is to rotate in a range and be prepared for a break either up or down.
Consider follow-up purchases in case of an upward move, or a return sale in case of a downward move.
Lighten positions and leave room for wait-and-see in case of sudden changes
trigger
Upwards may gain momentum above 152.70.
On the downside, stop selling is likely to be triggered below 151.80.
Tokyo morning: wait and see; focus on developments after the release of US indices in the New York time.
override condition
In the event of a clear break below 151.50
If the closing price fails to break above 152.70, the upward scenario is put on hold.
Forego limited price range and reduced volatility
risk event
US retail sales, corporate earnings announcements, statements by Fed officials
Japanese political reports and comments on the Ministry of Finance.
Risk aversion to the yen due to geopolitical factors
position management
Keep the number of positions per position to half the usual level.
Set a profit target of 20-30 pips and a stop-loss target based on recent highs and lows.
When there is a change of direction, do not force the market to maintain the opening price, but withdraw manoeuvrably.
checklist
Check developments in US interest rates and the dollar index from time to time.
Real demand flows and intervention alerts in the Tokyo market
Volatility changes and volume changes before and after the release of US indices
Market summary
The previous day, the euro was sold predominantly during the European hour, but buying returned to consolidate the lower price during the New York hour.
A lull in US interest rate rises and the US dollar's strength adjustment were noted, with small movements in the 1.15 range continuing.
Overall, there is a lack of direction, and the short-term phase is to find a balance between return momentum and selling pressure.
Assumed range
Around 1.1530-1.1680
The mid-1.15s is a downside guide and around 1.17 is perceived as upside resistance.
Volatility is trending slightly lower, with a narrower range expected
tactics
Focus on return sales, but also consider short-term push-buying after confirming lower prices.
Flexibility to sell at the upper end of the range and buy at the lower end
Avoid excessive following in one direction during index announcements.
trigger
A break above 1.1700 could strengthen short-term buy-backs.
Stop selling is likely to be triggered below 1.1530
Pay attention to US retail sales and the time of day for key figures.
override condition
Temporarily withdraw the return strategy if the closing price is clearly above 1.1700.
Wary of risk of a turn to a downtrend if below 1.1500
Shift to waiting for a break if the price range continues to narrow
risk event
US retail sales, statements by Fed officials, price indexes in major European countries.
Geopolitical risks and sudden changes in energy prices
Policy-related comments by ECB members.
position management
Position size adjusted by less than half the normal size.
Gains are based on 20-30 pips, losses are based on recent highs and lows.
In the event of a break, do not be biased in one direction and close the hand in stages.
checklist
Check US interest rate trends and the direction of the dollar index from time to time.
Results of European economic indicators and the tone of ECB officials' statements.
Volume and price movements during the liquidity expansion phase in NY time
Market summary
The previous day, a weak UK wage index led to a sell-off of the pound in the European hour.
In the New York hours, a lull in the dollar's strength led to a buy-back, with the pair consolidating lower in the 1.33s.
Overall, a phase of lack of direction, with a sense of return pressure in the process of testing the upside.
Assumed range
Around 1.3260-1.3410
The downside is considered as support at 1.3260 and the upside resistance around 1.34.
Volatility is moderate, with a tendency to swing either up or down.
tactics
Based on a return to the market, but with a reaction in the low 1.33s.
Avoid going deep during short-term buy-back phases and consider selling again on the return.
Keep the position light until a sense of direction is given and use a combination of range rotation.
trigger
Easy for short-term sources to buy back in on a break above 1.3420.
Stop selling may be triggered below 1.3260, increasing downward pressure.
Focus on London time flows and price movements after the release of US indicators.
override condition
A clear break above 1.3450 at the close would put the return scenario on hold.
Avoid following a fall below 1.3200 as it is accompanied by overheating.
Temporary no position is an option if the price movement stalls at the 1.33 level.
risk event
Further information on UK CPI and employment figures
US retail sales and statements by Fed officials.
Geopolitical factors and sharp changes in government bond yields
position management
Maximum size per position is half the normal size.
Profit taking is set at 20-30 pips and stop-loss is set on the basis of the recent high/low price.
Change hands in stages to avoid getting caught up in short-term ups and downs.
checklist
Check the results of UK economic indicators and the reaction of Pound Sterling interest rates.
Understand the direction of long-term US interest rates and the dollar index
Beware of temporary fluctuations due to real demand flows during London time.
Market summary
The previous day, the Australian dollar was sold predominantly through European hours, and at one point tested below 0.65.
A lull in the dollar's strength in the New York hour led to a buy-back and a move to the downside.
The market has yet to consolidate lower prices, but is entering the middle of the week with short-term confirmation of lower prices.
Assumed range
Around 0.6480-0.6620
The area around 0.65 is considered as a lower support band, with the upper 0.66s as resistance.
Overall, a phase in which it is easy to assume a range-bound transition.
tactics
Basic stance is to buy on the push and sell on the return, with a focus on range rotation.
Short-term upside is a priority to find a place to sell before 0.66.
Keep positions light and focus on short-term rotation until a sense of direction emerges.
trigger
A break above 0.6620 is likely to bring in short-term muscle buy-backs.
Stop selling is likely to occur below 0.6480 and downside caution is needed.
Wait-and-see mood in Tokyo hours, focus on US economic indicators in NY hours.
override condition
Temporarily suspend the return strategy if the closing price is clearly above 0.6640.
Review short-term push-back strategy if below 0.6460
Refrain from making new entries if the price movement remains in a narrow range of 0.65-0.66
risk event
US retail sales and statements by Fed officials.
Australian employment figures and RBA-related comments.
Resource currency selling due to Chinese economic indicators and risk aversion
position management
Size per position adjusted by less than half the normal size.
Set a profit target of 20-30 pips and a stop-loss target based on the most recent high/low price.
Avoid bias in one direction and ensure gradual closing of positions.
checklist
Check for changes in Australian indicators and RBA outlook
Understand US interest rate trends and the flow of the US dollar index.
Risk sentiment in the Chinese market and resource prices are closely monitored.
AI postcards: today's market
review
Sold in Tokyo and recovered in Europe, but selling again prevailed in New York, and the firmness of the downside was not yet confirmed, with the focus on the reaction at 151.00.
summary
An environment in which the authorities' censorship and the swing in US interest rates simultaneously restrain the upside and downside.
Intervention warnings and real demand flows limit the rush, but the sense of direction is still poor.
Short-term, the Β₯151 level continues to be attacked and defended, with a strong range tone as we wait for materials.
Today's price movements
Early Tokyo session was a test of the 151.20 break below with a return sell-off ahead.
In Europe, buy-backs were made and the price recovered to around 151.60.
In New York, the market was again dominated by selling and pushed back to around 151.00.
Background and materials
US dollar up and down due to sluggish US interest rate growth and speculation on key figures' statements.
Continued vigilance on the Japanese authorities' statement headlines
Flows linked to the strength and weakness of the stock market are also affected.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Upside is 151.90-152.00 for return resistance.
Downside candidates are 151.00 and 150.50.
Short-term indicators are in neutral territory, with little bias in momentum.
Technical note (mid-term).
Maintains a range of 150.00-152.70
An upward exit requires a firm establishment accompanied by volume
On the downside, a psychological milestone of 150.00 is in mind.
impression
Price range limited due to a climate of increased forbearance and participation.
Waiting for a reaction rather than expecting a break predominates in trading
trade observations
Based on range rotation, aiming for a rebound around 151.00 and a slower return between 151.90 and 152.00.
Breaks follow in stages with reduced size; retrogression is promptly retreated.
checklist
151.00 and 151.90-152.00 boards and reactions
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Presence or absence of statements by the authorities or suggestions of intervention and the degree to which the market has factored them in
review
The ECB's wait-and-see attitude and the sluggish growth of US interest rates were noticed, and after a period of buying in Tokyo and Europe, the market was pushed back to a higher level in the second half of the New York session.
summary
A lull in dollar strength supports the euro, but the upside is yet to be confirmed.
In the short term, the pair is expected to continue to hold at 1.1580-1.1660 and inspect the reaction at the upside resistance.
The development is susceptible to time-of-day flows due to a waiting list of events.
Today's price movements
Asian hours remain firm in the aftermath of the previous day's buying
After entering Europe, the upside is heavy as we await indicators and test the push.
Buying back in New York against the backdrop of a lull in interest rates, and the market remained high at the end of the day.
Background and materials
ECB continues to be data-dependent, with limited incorporation of additional measures
Swings in US interest rates and the dollar index define the upper and lower limits of the euro.
Changes in sentiment in equities and credit affect short-term flows
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.1630-1.1660 is the resistance zone for the return, and if it is established above, check for more room to return.
1.1580 - 1.1600 is the target for a push, note that a breakdown will accelerate the downward push.
Short-term momentum is close to neutral, wary of pre/post-index blips.
Technical note (mid-term).
Continued search for direction within the 1.1550-1.1700 range
Moving averages are in sideways territory and trend dominance is limited.
Return pressure and push-back demand are competing in the higher leg of the market.
impression
Mainly technical-driven traffic amidst a wait for materials
Aiming for a break requires supporting volume, and it is safe to follow in stages.
Short-term focus on time of day and liquidity rather than level-headedness
trade observations
Basis is based on range rotation, with push-buying at the bottom and return selling at the top.
Above, wait for consolidation above 1.1660 and follow in a small way Below, wait for a return below 1.1580.
Reduce size immediately before the event and prepare for initial fakes.
checklist
Thickness and reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1630-1.1660
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Tone of ECB key figures' statements and headlines on key indicators
review
The dollar's strength paused due to sluggish US interest rate growth, while the UK's slowdown in wage growth and the BoE's cautious stance were noted, leading to buying from Tokyo to Europe and a push back to the highs in New York.
summary
Funders have a mixed bag of weak and strong material, with direction still limited.
Short-term phase to verify the quality of the return and stall point, with the upper price not yet confirmed.
Time-of-day flows and pre- and post-index blurring affect the price range
Today's price movements
Asia starts firm, testing the upside on entry into Europe
Pushed down once in early New York, but bought back up after a lull in US interest rates
The pullback was maintained at the high end of the range, and the attack and defence around the upper end of the range continued.
Background and materials
While interest rate cut speculation is smoldering due to slowing wage growth in the UK, there are residual views of a prolonged period of unchanged interest rates.
Swings in US interest rates and stock market risk tolerance define the ups and downs of the pound.
The ground continues to be sensitive to key figures' statements and high-frequency data.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upper resistance zone is 1.3400-1.3450.
The downside is 1.3330-1.3350 is a candidate for a push.
Momentum is close to neutral and requires continuous leg support to break out.
Technical note (mid-term).
Direction seeking within the range of 1.3300-1.3480
Moving averages are in sideways territory and trend dominance is limited.
Return pressure and push-back demand are competing in the higher legs.
impression
Mainly technical-driven traffic while awaiting materials
Focus on time of day and changes in liquidity rather than a sense of level
Note that in times of sudden change, the tendency is to lean towards news-driven
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, with push-buying at the bottom and return selling at the top
Follow-up is gradual, with initial movement restrained in size.
Quickly withdraw and start over on a fake break.
checklist
Board and reaction at 1.3330 and 1.3400-1.3450
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
BoE key figures' statements and whether or not there are any surprises in UK indicators
review
The Australian dollar was supported by a pause in the dollar's strength due to sluggish US interest rates, and after a buying spree in Tokyo Europe, the Australian dollar closed lower in New York with a push in between.
summary
Funders have limited direction due to a combination of weakness on the Australian side and a lull in US interest rates.
Short-term is a back-and-forth phase around the 0.6480-0.6520 centre to test the quality of the return and the thickness of the pushback.
The ground is susceptible to time zone factors while awaiting events.
Today's price movements
Asia holds firm in the aftermath of the previous day's buying
Tested higher in Europe but failed to extend, pushed once in early New York.
The end of the day was marked by a buy-back and ended back to around 0.65
Background and materials
Weak Australian employment and the RBA's cautious approach limit upside.
Sluggish US interest rate growth leads to a pause in dollar strength, supporting the Australian dollar.
Fluctuations in Chinese indices and resource prices influence sentiment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is resistance at 0.6520, which, if exceeded, inspects the return margin at 0.6550.
Downside candidates are 0.6500 and 0.6480.
Oscillators are in neutral territory and momentum is close
Technical note (mid-term).
Direction-seeking within a wide range of 0.6400-0.6700
Moving averages are flat and trend dominance is limited.
Return pressure and push-back demand are competing in the higher legs.
impression
I want to focus on rotation, checking the reaction rather than expecting a break.
Effective size management without being swayed by news-driven initial responses.
Short-term focus on time of day and liquidity rather than levels
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, with push-back at the bottom and return at the top
Follow-up is split into smaller pieces and initial retrogression is quickly withdrawn.
Hold back newcomers before and after the event and wait for a more reliable pattern.
checklist
Thickness and reaction at 0.6480 and 0.6520
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index.
Tone of RBA-related headlines and Chinese indicators
FX Diary.