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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | Reserve Bank of Australia (Central Bank), Summary of Monetary Policy Meetings released. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | Sep Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | Sep Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Sept Unemployment insurance applications |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Sept Unemployment rate |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Aug Unemployment rate (ILO method) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | Oct ZEW Business Confidence Survey (Expectations Index) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | Oct ZEW Business Confidence Survey |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | πΊπΈ America | Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, remarks | |
| important person's statement | π¬π§ United Kingdom | Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Mr Bailey, statement. |
Today's Outlook.
The previous day was a day of adjustment due to the holidays in Japan and the US. Technically, the market has not consolidated to the downside, and it remains to be seen whether it will test the top or bottom of the range as liquidity is restored.
On the previous day, euro selling was preceded by limited participation, but the follow-up was weak and stalled. From a technical point of view, it is difficult to say that the price has consolidated on the downside, and there is a sense of upside weakness even on the return phase. Today, liquidity will be restored after the holidays, and we will see which way the recent range will be tested above and below, and the continuity of price movements will be assessed in the hourly flows.
The previous day saw limited participation due to the US Treasury holiday and a lack of new material on the UK side, with GBPUSD remaining in a small range. From a technical point of view, it is difficult to say that the price has consolidated on the downside, and even on the return phase, there is an awareness of the heaviness on the upside. Liquidity will return today after the holiday break, and attention will be focused on which side to test.
The previous day saw limited participation due to the US Treasury holiday, and AUDUSD ended the day in a narrow range. Technically, the price has not consolidated lower, nor is the upside too heavy, so it will be interesting to see if liquidity returns and the price tests lower again.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
The previous day lacked a sense of direction and continued to move in a small range as US interest rate movements calmed down. The market as a whole was in a wait-and-see mood, waiting for the next clue.
Euro selling prevailed through the European hours, but the pair closed higher in the New York hours on the back of a pause in the rise in US interest rates. The daily line was positive, confirming the resilience of the pair in the 1.15 range.
Selling of the pound was preceded by a sell-off in the pound through European hours following indicators of a slowdown in UK wage growth, but the pair was bought back in New York hours against the backdrop of a pause in the rise in US interest rates, reducing the downward trend. The day was also marked by a lack of directionality, with a sense of firmness on the downside.
The Australian dollar was sold from Tokyo to European hours, but the return was limited in New York as the rise in US interest rates paused and buying returned. The pair was slightly lower in the low 0.65s towards the end of the day, and overall the day continued to see a search for lower prices.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
The upper limit has no line that is likely to be conscious, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be conscious.
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
Liquidity has recovered after the holidays, and US interest rates and headline influences are likely to be reflected in prices.
Trade-related news from China and US interest rate observations will influence the direction of the dollar, with caution in testing the recent range up or down.
A wait-and-see mood is likely to remain in Tokyo, with the focus on flows after Europe's arrival and the reaction in the morning in New York.
Assumed range
151.50-152.50 Front and rear
On the downside, 151.70 to 151.50 is a potential push point; on the upside, 152.40-152.50 is the initial barrier for a return.
The price range could widen depending on events, but the centre of the range is expected to be around 151.90-152.20.
tactics
Basis is range rotation.
Short-term rotation of return selling near the upper limit and push-buying near the lower limit.
Follow thinly only if a break occurs and withdraw promptly if it does not extend.
trigger
Above: stay above 152.50 β room to test around 152.80 on pullback retention
Downwards: break below 151.70 to 151.50 confirming the quality of the run and rebound to 151.50.
Time of day: early European and New York morning, when US interest rates changed unidirectionally at the same time.
override condition
The upside failed to consolidate above 152.50 and reverted back to the return dominance below 152.20 again.
Downside is denied if the price does not continue below 151.50 and recovers 151.90 in a V-shape.
Both breaks with no volume and a poor sense of volume are invalid close.
risk event
Trade-related headlines on trade with China
Key US interest rate-related statements and index headlines.
Flow fluctuations before and after option cut
position management
Size 0.5-0.7 times normal, split execution with slippage avoidance.
Gains are shallow, 15-25p in the range and extend halfway when following a break.
Losses are cut mechanically at 2-3p over the most recent push back.
checklist
Is the direction of US interest rates and the DXY consistent with price movements?
Thickness of the board at 152.40-152.50 and 151.70-151.50 and difficulty in passing contracts.
Whether or not the volatility expanded on entering Europe and in the morning in New York, and whether or not the news occurred at the same time.
Market summary
Liquidity is likely to recover after the holidays, and the previous day's euro sell-off stalled with little follow-through, so the direction is likely to be range-bound again.
Assumed range
1.1550-1.1700 Front and rear
The centre is assumed to be around 1.1600-1.1660.
Wary of downside around 1.1520 and upside around 1.1720 in case of expansion.
tactics
Basis is range rotation.
Sell back when the upper limit is approached and buy when the lower limit is approached, in small divisions.
Follow the break thinly and withdraw promptly if it does not extend.
trigger
Exit above 1.1670 retention and pullback retention above 1.1670.
Downside confirmation of a run below 1.1550 and weak returns.
Time of day: early European and New York morning volatility expansion phase.
override condition
Above failed above 1.1670 and returned to a return to the upper boundary below 1.1620.
Downside is denied by a recovery below 1.1550 that does not last and a recovery to the 1.1600 level.
Breaks that are not accompanied by a volume are invalid close.
risk event
Headlines on European business confidence and key figures' statements
US interest rate-related indicators and statements.
Sudden changes in trade-related news
position management
Size 0.5-0.7 times normal to prevent slippage.
Gains are 15-25p in the range, with break following half-extended.
Losses are mechanically executed 2-3p outside the most recent push back.
checklist
Is the direction of US interest rates and the DXY consistent with price movements?
Has there been an increase in the difficulty of passing boards and executions in the vicinity of 1.1670 and 1.1550?
Are there any simultaneous news and volatility expansion in early Europe and in the morning in New York?
Market summary
Liquidity is easily restored after the holidays, and the previous day was a small range and lacked a sense of direction.
Relatively strong influence of US interest rates and trade headlines with China, limited UK-side material.
Assumed range
1.3320-1.3365 Front and rear
The centre is assumed to be in the vicinity of 1.3335-1.3355.
tactics
Basis is range rotation.
Execute return selling near the upper limit and push-buying near the lower limit in small divisions.
trigger
Upside is a stay above 1.3365 and pullback retention.
Downside is a run below 1.3320 and confirmation of a weak return.
Time of day: early European and New York morning volatility expansion phase.
override condition
Above failed above 1.3365 and returned to a return to a return advantage below 1.3340.
Below 1.3320 no sustained break below 1.3350 recovery to negate downside.
risk event
US interest rate-related headlines and statements by key figures.
Surprises in European indicators.
Sudden changes in trade-related news
position management
Size 0.5-0.7 times normal to prevent slippage.
Gains are 15-25p in the range, break-following extends half way.
Losses are mechanically executed 2-3p outside the most recent push back.
checklist
Is the direction of US interest rates and the DXY consistent with price movements?
Are board thickness and execution delays intensifying around 1.3365 and 1.3320?
Are there any simultaneous news and volatility expansion in early Europe and in the morning in New York?
Market summary
Room for expansion from the previous day's narrow price movements as liquidity is easily restored after the holidays.
Insufficient consolidation on the downside, but also inconclusive and range-bound
Note the simultaneity of RBA minutes and China-related headlines with US interest rates.
Assumed range
0.6465-0.6530 Front and rear
Broadly speaking, around 0.6450-0.6560
Assumes a centre of 0.6485-0.6515
tactics
Basis is range rotation.
Attempt to push the lower limit closer to the lower limit in small divisions
When the upper limit is approached, return sales are prioritised and gains are shallow.
trigger
Exit above 0.6530 retention and pull-back retention
Continued growth is considered to follow above 0.6560
Downside is a run below 0.6465 and confirmation of a weak return.
override condition
Failure to ride 0.6530 to the upside and a break below 0.6510 would return to a return to the upper side.
Downward direction: failure to break below 0.6465 and recovery to the 0.6500 level would negate the downward pressure.
Breaks with poor volume and time period support are invalid close.
risk event
RBA minutes and key figures' statements
Chinese economy and resource market headlines.
US interest rate-related indicators and statements.
position management
Size 0.5-0.7 times normal to prevent slippage.
Interest is executed in stages within a range of 15-25p.
Losses are mechanically executed at 2-3p over the most recent push back.
checklist
Is the direction of DXY and US interest rates consistent with prices?
Is there an increase in board thickness or difficulty in getting through to execute around 0.6530 and 0.6465?
Are there any simultaneous news and volatility expansion in early Europe and in the morning in New York?
AI postcards: today's market
review
With US interest rates showing signs of settling down, the market lacked a sense of direction and remained in a small range in the low Β₯152s.
summary
The previous day, the market continued to be inconclusive both up and down amidst a lack of materials.
Trading was limited by a combination of US interest rate cut speculation and the Bank of Japan's cautious stance.
Overall, the mood was strongly wait-and-see, with participants maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.
Today's price movements
Quiet price action in Tokyo hours in the first half of 152 yen.
The European hour was also lacklustre, with no major reactions seen through to the New York hour.
Continued directionless trading throughout the day, with trading dominated by short-term sources
Background and materials
Expectations of a US interest rate cut and slowing inflation restrain the dollar's upside.
On the other hand, momentum in the direction of the yen's appreciation is also limited, as the Bank of Japan's monetary policy modifications have receded.
Geopolitical factors and reports on US-China relations had limited impact on the exchange rate.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 152.70 is perceived as upside resistance and stalls without breaking out.
Around 151.80-152.00 acts as support, with limited downward pressure.
Short-term moving averages are moving sideways and lack a clear sense of direction.
Technical note (mid-term).
Daily trend shows a lull in the uptrend and an adjustment phase for overheating.
The area above 153.00 has bounced back multiple times and is considered strong resistance.
Medium-term support is near 151.00, and the underlying tone is likely to hold until the pair breaks below here.
impression
A day in which the overall market lacked momentum and a clear decline in liquidity was evident.
No active trading was seen, mainly due to position adjustments ahead of the event.
Market sentiment is somewhat cautious and ready to wait for the next US economic indicators.
trade observations
Short-term rotation is the main focus in the narrow price range, making it difficult to aim for a breakout.
Many participants, except for those who were mainly scalpers, refrained from entering the market.
Environment in which it is effective to avoid taking unreasonable positions and to respond at the upper and lower end of the range.
checklist
Check US long-term interest rates and the US dollar index.
Check for BOJ-related reports and statements on currency intervention.
Recap of this week's schedule of US economic indicators
review
The euro was sold predominantly through the European hour, but was bought back in the New York hour against the backdrop of a pause in the rise in US interest rates and closed on a positive note.
summary
The previous day, the dollar strengthened in the early part of the day, but adjusted in the second half of the day and the euro moved lower.
Materials are scarce and the day will depend on US interest rates and position adjustments.
Directionality was limited, but the firmness in the low 1.15s was recognised.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: small movement, hovering around 1.1570.
After a downward push to around 1.1550 in the European hour, the pair closed at 1.1590s in the New York hour due to stronger buying back in the New York hour.
Despite a temporary sell-off, the euro was supported by the calm in US interest rates
Background and materials
A lull in US interest rate rises and an adjustment in the dollar index worked to sell dollars.
Concerns over the European economic slowdown and the ECB's cautious monetary stance still restrain upside.
Geopolitical risks are limited and the overall trend is technically driven
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.1550 acts as short-term support, with upside resistance around 1.1600
Short-term moving averages are flat and volatility is declining
RSI hovering around the neutral zone and showing no clear direction
Technical note (mid-term).
The market remained within the range of 1.1500-1.1700 and lack of direction continues.
Medium-term trend is slightly downwards, but the momentum of the low is slowing down
Weekly support area is maintained and is in the holding formation phase.
impression
A noticeable trend towards short-term trading amidst a lack of materials
Interest rate differentials between Europe and the US are narrowing, and the all-encompassing momentum of dollar buying is receding.
The following US economic indicators and statements from ECB officials may provide direction
trade observations
The market is effective in pushing within a narrow range and cutting back on returns
Reaction was slow during the day, with liquidity key in the European and US time zones
A day when short-term rotation is more suitable than trend-following
checklist
Check trends in long-term US interest rates and the dollar index.
Check European business indicators and ECB statement schedule
Watch for volume and reaction to price movements between 1.1550 and 1.1600.
review
Selling of the pound in the European hour, following a slowdown in UK wage growth indicators, was followed by a buy-back in the New York hour, which reduced the downward trend.
summary
The previous day was dominated by short-term price movements in response to the index results amid limited material.
Concerns about a UK economic slowdown continued to limit upside, but a lull in US interest rate rises also slowed dollar buying.
Overall, the day remained within a range and lacked a sense of direction.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: small movements around 1.3330.
The pair fell to around 1.3300 over European hours, testing the downside in the short term.
The price movement was slightly calmer towards the end of the day, with a buy-back in the New York time and a close in the 1.3340s.
Background and materials
A slowdown in UK wage figures was the main reason for the sell-off in the pound.
US interest rate developments support the dollar, while risk-averse dollar buying is limited
Speculation about the timing of the BoE's interest rate cut and concerns about the economic slowdown remained a concern.
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.3300 is considered as a downside support, with 1.3380-1.3400 as a return target.
Short-term moving averages are flat and momentum is in neutral territory
Volatility is trending downwards, with continued adjustments within the range
Technical note (mid-term).
The range of 1.3200-1.3450 is maintained, with a firmer tone in the medium term.
Medium-term trend is downwards, but the momentum of the low is weakening
A long lower-bearded candlestick appears on a daily basis, suggesting short-term firmness to the downside.
impression
Even after a lull in the pound sell-off, aggressive buy-backs failed to materialise, giving the impression of a lack of direction.
Trading volumes are limited as markets await the next US economic indicators and statements from BoE officials.
Range-focused trading is likely to continue for the time being, while risk factors are assessed
trade observations
Short-term rotation is effective in the market, with push-buying on the downside and return selling on the upside.
Lack of movement and a day that called for a conservative response rather than a breakthrough attempt.
For short-term positions, it is safe to take a shallow stop position and be prepared for adjustments within the range.
checklist
Check the results of UK economic indicators (employment and prices) and market reaction.
Tracking US long-term interest rates and the US dollar index
Watch for reports on statements by BoE officials and the outlook for the next meeting.
review
The Australian dollar was sold from Tokyo to the European time, but bought back in the New York time, following a lull in the rise in US interest rates, and eventually weakened slightly to the low 0.65s.
summary
Uncertainty in US-China relations and risk aversion restrained the Australian dollar's upward movement.
Australian dollar weakens against the dollar as RBA remains cautious
The situation calmed down somewhat in the New York hours, but the overall downward movement continued.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time hovered around 0.6550, pushing lower against a backdrop of softness in Asian equities.
Test below 0.6500 in European hours, but some buying support was seen on the downside
The pair made a small rebound in the New York hours after a lull in the dollar's strength, but the return was limited and the pair closed at around 0.6520 at the end of the day.
Background and materials
Fears of renewed trade friction between the US and China have intensified the mood of risk aversion, triggering a sell-off in the Australian dollar.
RBA meeting minutes showed no rush to cut interest rates further, but concerns about an economic slowdown were raised.
A pause in the rise in US interest rates and the sluggish growth of the dollar contributed to the downside.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 0.6480-0.6500 level is considered as short-term support.
Around 0.6550 is the upper resistance zone for the return and lacks momentum to the upside.
Short-term moving averages remain flat and continue to test the lower end of the range
Technical note (mid-term).
The market remains in a range of 0.6400-0.6650 and lacks direction in the medium term.
Medium-term moving averages are moderately downwards and a shift to an upward trend has not been confirmed
The weekly line is a shadow with a lower whisker, and a certain amount of buying demand remains at the lower end of the range.
impression
A mix of risk aversion and interest rate factors made it difficult to get a sense of direction for the Australian dollar.
Limited Australian dollar-driven movement as markets are keen to assess US interest rate developments
Technical signs of a lower price, but upside pressure still remains.
trade observations
In the short term, a push below 0.65 and a return around 0.6550 are useful for rotation.
Market suitable for day trading with limited price range rather than aiming for a break.
It is safe to keep positions light and be prepared for news-driven volatility risks.
checklist
Confirmation of statements by RBA officials and the outlook for the next meeting.
Tracking US interest rates and the US dollar index
Watch the impact of Chinese economic indicators and stock price movements on the Australian dollar.
FX Diary.