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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ America | β | Oct University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, preliminary |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
News
Japan] Komeito leaves the coalition government.
Today's Outlook.
Although the previous day saw multiple push-backs at the JPY 153 high line, the buying momentum had not yet clearly weakened. The possibility of another upward test against the backdrop of firmness can be easily recognised. However, rebalancing flows are likely to be a factor over the weekend, and care must be taken not to be swayed by sudden price movements.
On the previous day, euro selling prevailed against the backdrop of French political uncertainty and US interest rate developments, with the euro falling slightly below the line that had been set as a selling target. There was then a temporary buying back, but the return was limited and the pair continued to move in a lower range. Today, the market is likely to continue to test the downside, but rebalancing flows are also a cautionary factor due to the weekend.
On the previous day, the pound was predominantly sold from the European hour and continued to test the downside as dollar buying also overlapped into the New York hour. As a result, the pair slightly renewed the line targeted for selling and held at the lows. Today, the market is likely to continue to test the downside, but the weekend factor may add to rebalancing flows and erratic price movements should be watched out.
The previous day was a day of volatile price movements with a mix of selling and buying, which confirmed the upward pressure and created the shape of the decline. Today, too, a test of lower prices requires caution, and in addition, the impact of the weekend-specific rebalancing is a phase that requires attention.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In New York, President Trump's comments triggered additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which accelerated the dollar sell-off and the pair closed sharply lower. Overall, the day was marked by uncertainty on both political and trade fronts.
The euro was affected by the rebalancing due to weekend factors, and from European hours to early New York there was a strong sense of adjustment with a lack of direction; in the second half of New York, President Trump's comments raised the prospect of tighter tariffs on Chinese goods, and the dollar was sold off. In response, the euro temporarily strengthened its rebound, recovering the 1.16 level and closing in a firmer position at the high end of the range.
In European hours, the pair continued the previous day's trend and tested the downside. The dollar was sold off sharply in the New York time, following President Trump's tariffs on China.
The Australian dollar was sold off sharply in Tokyo and Europe, falling below 0.6500.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
The upper limit has no line that is likely to be conscious, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be conscious.
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
USDJPY continues to be restrained on the upside at the Β₯153 level, while the buying momentum has not waned and the market is aware of its resilience.
Attempts to break to higher highs have been pushed back, with a breakthrough to the upside and pressure to return to the market.
Assumed range
Around 152.20-153.50
Assuming a range of higher prices, but with the possibility of increased volatility due to rebalancing factors over the weekend.
tactics
Basis is to be aware of push-buying, but also to look at range rotation in the short term.
Flexibility to take small increments of interest is desirable, assuming ups and downs due to sudden flows.
trigger
Short-term buying interest likely to strengthen on a break above 153.30.
A break below 152.20 could increase adjustment and accelerate temporary selling pressure.
Focus on European time flows as a weekend factor.
override condition
A firm step into the Β₯151 level would invalidate the push-back scenario
Directional review also needed if selling pressure at higher prices increases during the New York hour
risk event
US economic indicators (employment-related and inflation-related)
Changes in monetary policy stance as a result of statements by key figures
Weekend position adjustment flows
position management
Enter with smaller lots than usual and be prepared for weekend-specific volatility risks.
Interest gains are made in small increments of around 20-30 pips.
Losses are managed based on milestones such as below 152.00.
checklist
Check whether the Β₯153 level has been breached.
Assumed flows from weekend rebalancing
Always aware of US interest rate developments in NY time
Market summary
The previous day, the euro was sold off against the backdrop of French political uncertainty and US interest rate developments, and the euro was slightly below the line that had been set as the selling target.
There was then a temporary buying back, but the return was limited and the market remained in a lower range.
Conscious of another test of the downside today, but the situation requires attention to flows due to rebalancing over the weekend.
Assumed range
Price movements are expected to be centred around 1.1520 at the lower limit and around 1.1620 at the upper limit.
1.1600 is easily recognised as a psychological milestone and is likely to be the focus of offensive and defensive action.
On the downside, an important juncture is whether the 1.1550 break is tested.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on return sales, which is considered to be a valid development.
In phases of short-term buy-backs, be cautious and watch for reactions in the resistance zone.
Do not follow a sudden rebound and check for a weak return
trigger
Downwards, one trigger is likely to be a break below 1.1550.
The upside is considered a signal for a rebound if the price continues to move above 1.1620.
Fluctuations tend to be concentrated in flows entering European hours and in the early part of the New York hours, so they need to be watched closely.
override condition
A clear break above 1.1650 could make it harder for a return strategy to work
Steady above 1.1620 on a closing basis suggests that the downside test scenario is invalidated.
Assumptions of short-term selling dominance are negated in situations where sudden news flows cause a sudden spike.
risk event
In addition to the release of US economic indicators, the remarks of Fed officials will be of interest.
European political news is likely to remain a factor in euro selling.
Rebalancing flows due to weekend factors may cause sudden fluctuations
position management
Keep position sizes modest and take into account the uncertainty of weekend factors
Set profit targets in small increments on the downside and avoid excessive pulling.
Losses should be taken earlier on a clear break above 1.1650 or other clear upside.
checklist
Check for a break below 1.1550
Observe the strength of the attack and defence around 1.1600.
Wary of sudden flows due to weekend rebalancing
Market summary
Selling of the pound has been predominant, and the situation is continuing to look for a lower price due to a combination of dollar buying.
The previous day, the line was considered a sell target and closed slightly above the line, holding at the low end of the range.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around the 1.2550-1.2700 area.
On the downside, the environment is conscious of a break below 1.2550, while on the upside, the return is likely to be restrained in front of 1.2700.
tactics
Tactics based on return sales are effective, assuming a predominantly selling trend.
However, buy-backs are likely to occur at lower prices, and a cautious response is required to follow the lows.
trigger
A clear break below 1.2550 would increase the likelihood of accelerated selling.
Conversely, a return phase is more likely to be perceived if a level above 1.2700 is achieved.
override condition
A clear break above 1.2700 and a negation of the low price area would invalidate the downside scenario.
Assumptions need to be adjusted in the event of a rapid build-up of dollar selling pressure
risk event
Irregular price movements due to weekend position adjustments and rebalancing flows
Accelerated buying and selling of the dollar due to US interest rate-related statements and index releases
Possible sudden impact of UK economic indicators and political reports.
position management
New entries are more modest in size than usual.
Interest gains are made in stages, with the lower price around 1.2550.
Stop-losses are placed above 1.2700 to clearly control risk.
checklist
Check for a clear break below 1.2550.
Check that there are no sudden flows in due to rebalancing.
Check the impact of US interest rate developments and the results of UK indicators on a continuous basis.
Market summary
The previous day saw volatile price movements with a mix of selling and buying, with the market finally confirming the heaviness of the upside and leaning towards the downside.
The Australian dollar continues to move at a lower level, with price movements indicating a weak return against the US dollar.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 0.6460-0.6540.
While a test of the downside is likely to be conscious, a return to the mid 0.6500s is the upside guide in a rebound phase.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on a return to the market, a phase that is likely to be prioritised.
Tactics based on the assumption of dollar buying pressure as a whole are effective, while taking into account the possibility of buying back in the lower range
trigger
Downward movement may accelerate if the price breaks clearly below 0.6460.
If the pair breaks above 0.6540, buy-backs will prevail in the short term, with a view to around 0.6570.
override condition
A clear break above 0.6550 and an established positive daily line would negate the downside scenario.
Selling tactics should also be reviewed when a strong rebound is entered after a new low.
risk event
Fluctuations in the dollar due to the release of US economic indicators (CPI and employment-related data).
Chinese economic announcements and resource market fluctuations affect the Australian dollar.
Weekend rebalancing for sudden flows
position management
Entry size is kept at 50-70% of normal to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations.
It is reasonable to set a profit target around 0.6470 and a loss target above 0.6550.
Limit position holding periods to short periods and liquidate quickly after the event has passed.
checklist
Confirmation of the upward weighting with 0.6500 as the axis.
Determine whether the decline will accelerate starting from the 0.6460 breach.
Beware of sudden flows due to weekend rebalancing
AI postcards: today's market
review
The yen was predominantly bought in the European hour, and the dollar fell sharply in the New York hour as selling accelerated.
summary
Risk-averse buying of the yen due to a combination of reports of Komei's withdrawal from the coalition and US tariff hints against China.
The dollar was soft, with the yen temporarily falling below Β₯153.
Markets were sensitive to political factors, with notable risk event-driven movements
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours were small and lacked a sense of direction.
Reports of the coalition leaving in the European hour have strengthened the yen, with a temporary test to the downside.
Dollar selling accelerated in the New York hour following President Trump's comments on China, which led to lower
Background and materials
In addition to political uncertainty in Japan, comments over US trade policy cooled market sentiment.
Developments led by geopolitical and political risks rather than US interest rate trends
Positional adjustments ahead of the weekend also increased dollar selling pressure.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Stop selling was triggered when the market fell below support near 153.00.
In the return phase, the area around 152.80-153.00 is likely to be considered as resistance.
In the short term, the range remains at the lower end of the range with increased volatility
Technical note (mid-term).
Temporary adjustment phase in an uptrend on a daily basis
Focus is on whether the 20-day moving average (in the low 152s) can be maintained.
A break below 152.00 would also raise awareness of the possibility of a medium-term momentum shift.
impression
Continued over-sensitivity to policy-related news.
A phase that is more influenced by short-term risk flows than fundamentals.
It will be interesting to see whether the impact of the statements and media coverage calms down somewhat over the next week or so.
trade observations
Many sudden changes due to news headlines required a cautious response.
The predominant trend was to sell on the return rather than chase the upside.
A day when small settlements with a focus on risk rewards are effective
checklist
Are you aware of the temporary risk of buying the yen due to political reports?
Are you checking the impact of US political factors such as tariff statements against China?
Are risk management practices in place for weekend position adjustment flows?
review
After rebalancing adjustments, the euro rebounded and closed higher following US comments
summary
The market continued to lack direction in a flow-driven market ahead of the weekend
Dollar selling prevailed in the second half of the New York hour, triggered by President Trump's comments suggesting tariffs against China.
The euro recovered to the 1.16 level, showing a short-term lull to the downside
Today's price movements
European hours are mainly adjustment-oriented against the backdrop of weekend rebalancing.
The range remained in a narrow range of 1.1550-1.1580 until early New York.
Dollar selling accelerated in the wake of the comments towards the second half of the New York session, temporarily rising to around 1.1620.
Background and materials
President Trump's suggestion of tougher tariffs on China weighed on market sentiment.
Risk-off trend temporarily turning into dollar sell-off
Lack of new economic indicator clues on the European side, led by US factors
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.1550 is perceived as support and the downside is limited
1.1620-1.1650 is an upper resistance zone that cannot be broken out of.
The 5-day moving average (around 1.1590) is the immediate turning point
Technical note (mid-term).
Daily return phase in a declining trend
Focus is on whether the 20-day line (around 1.1670) can be broken above.
Medium-term downside retest risk resurfaces if it falls below 1.1500.
impression
Material-driven movements are evident, with little impression of fundamental consistency.
Prone to short-term volatility due to political and trade statements
US CPI and other indicators are likely to be a factor in determining direction over the next week or so.
trade observations
Price movements were often reactive to news, despite a lack of direction.
Impression that short-term pushback against 1.1550 was effective.
It was reasonable to avoid unreasonable entries in thin trading conditions due to the weekend factor.
checklist
Are you aware of dollar fluctuations due to US trade-related statements?
Were temporary price movements due to weekend flows and rebalancing expected?
Are you aware of position adjustments ahead of next week's US CPI release?
review
Tested lower in Europe, then turned to sell dollars in New York and closed on the rebound.
summary
The European hour saw a continuation of the previous day's trend, with selling
In New York, the pound rebounded in response to President Trump's comments, with dollar sales prevailing.
The market closed the day recovering from the lows at the end of the day due to a combination of adjustment moves ahead of the weekend.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time is slightly moving in a range around 1.2520-1.2540.
Selling intensified towards the beginning of the European session and temporarily fell below 1.2500.
In the New York session, the tariff comments accelerated the dollar sell-off and the price rose to around 1.2570 and closed at around 1.2570.
Background and materials
Selling of the pound prevails in European hours as concerns over the UK economic slowdown continue to weigh.
President Trump's comments on tougher tariffs on Chinese goods weakened the dollar across the board.
Aspects of weekend rebalancing flows that destabilised the market
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.2500 acts as a temporary support.
1.2570-1.2580 is the upper limit of the return, and in the short term, a range is forming.
Hovering around the 5-day moving average (around 1.2560)
Technical note (mid-term).
Signs of a lull in the downward trend on a daily basis
The medium-term focus is on whether the 20-day line (around 1.2650) can be broken above.
If the price falls below 1.2450, the possibility of another downside is strengthened.
impression
Overall, the development is more influenced by external factors than by the pound alone.
Positional adjustments were noticeable due to US statements and weekend factors.
Impression of limited price volatility but maintained volatility
trade observations
Short-term buying on the back of 1.2500 worked, but returns were limited.
A day of many news-driven developments, making technical decisions difficult.
Based on the weekend factors, it was the right phase to avoid building an unreasonable position.
checklist
Are you aware of the impact of the US administration's statements and tariff policies towards China?
1.2500 was recognised as short-term support?
Do you anticipate the risk of price movements after rebalancing towards the end of the week?
review
Trump's comments have led to increased risk aversion and selling of the Australian dollar.
summary
Tokyo and European hours remained directionless, partly due to the weekend rebalancing
Risk-off mood prevailed over the New York hour following President Trump's suggested tariffs on China.
The Australian dollar fell under dollar buying pressure and remained at a low level in the final stages of the day.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time: small movements around 0.6520-0.6540.
European hours were slightly more dollar-driven, falling to around 0.6500.
In the New York hours, the Australian dollar was sold more strongly following the tariff comments, temporarily falling to around 0.6470.
Returns were slow towards the close, closing at the 0.6480 level.
Background and materials
Adjustment flows due to rebalancing ahead of the weekend dominate the market
President Trump's suggested tariffs on Chinese products have increased risk aversion.
The combination of rising US interest rates and the dollar's strengthening pressure prevailed.
Technical memorandum (short term)
A break below 0.6500 broke short-term support.
0.6530-0.6540 is considered to be a return guideline.
RSI approaching short-term oversold levels, with room for adjustment
Technical note (mid-term).
The downtrend is continuing on a daily basis.
Return limited unless a clear break above 0.6550 is achieved.
On a weekly basis, the area around 0.6450 is the next lower price point to be considered.
impression
A day of news-driven reactions amid reduced liquidity due to weekend factors
Market reaction to the tariff remarks against China was swift, reflecting risk-averse sensitive ground.
Market may remain sensitive to political and trade-related statements in the coming week and beyond
trade observations
Selling below 0.6500 worked, but a cautious approach to the downside was required
Short-term traders' immediate response to event headlines is a key development.
Reversal under rising volatility is risky and requires clear confirmation of a turnaround.
checklist
Was the 0.6500 break recognised as a short-term support break?
Did they anticipate the risk of weekend-specific price movements due to rebalancing?
Did you factor in the risk of tariff-related statements against China into your trading plan?
FX Diary.