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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πͺπΊ Europe | β β | European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Minutes |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | πΊπΈ America | Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, remarks |
Today's Outlook.
On the previous day, the yen continued to sell off throughout Tokyo and European hours, briefly testing 153 yen, but the dollar's gains were reduced by New York hours as dollar selling gained momentum due to growing expectations of a rate cut following the Fed's meeting summary. However, the yen selling trend itself has not broken down significantly, and it is easy to be aware of the offensive and defence in the high zone. Today will be a phase to confirm the initial trend, whether there will be a move to test the Β₯153 level again or whether the price will consolidate around the Β₯152 level.
On the previous day, the euro was sold predominantly from Tokyo to Europe against the backdrop of instability in French politics, and temporarily fell below 1.1600 in New York hours. The pair subsequently narrowed the gap due to dollar selling in response to the US interest rate trend, and closed with a downside whisker. Today, the 1.1600 level is once again in focus, and it will be interesting to see whether the pair will try to break below it or confirm a rebound. Overall, it will be a day to assess the firmness of the downside while selling pressure remains.
On the previous day, selling was ahead from Tokyo hours and there was a stronger test to the downside in European hours, but in New York, the downside was reduced due to dollar selling following the Fed's meeting summary. Today, while selling pressure on the pound remains a concern, the market will be looking to see if there is a buy-back on the downside.
On the previous day, selling was ahead in Tokyo hours and weakening was seen in Europe, but by New York hours, a rebound at lower prices prevailed, partly due to dollar selling following the Fed's meeting summary. As a result, the pair formed a positive daily line with a long lower whisker and the presence of a buy-back at the lows is being recognised. Today, attention will be focused on whether the level around 0.6500 can be maintained or whether the pair will test the downside again.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In European hours, the pair was bid up to the previous day's highs, but was pushed back to the upside at levels above 153 yen, with the US dollar temporarily testing the upside on the back of renewed buying pressure on US interest rates in New York, but failed to break through the milestone clearly. Nevertheless, the pair remained in a high price range and remained resilient towards the end of the session.
In European hours, euro selling intensified against the backdrop of French political unrest, leading to a test of the downside, while by New York time, US interest rate developments led to dollar buying, widening the decline and slightly renewing the target level for selling, closing at a lower level.
The pair was directionless during the Tokyo hours, but the pound was predominantly sold during the European hours, testing the downside, and by the New York hours, the pair fell in one fell swoop as the US dollar accelerated against the backdrop of the US interest rate trend. As a result, the price slightly renewed the line that had been the target of the sell-off and closed at a lower level at the end of the day.
The pair was seen to test the upside temporarily as buyers gained the upper hand through the Tokyo hours, but was pushed to the downside by dollar buying in the European hours. However, there was also some push-buying at lower levels and the pair tested the upside again during the New York hours. However, the US interest rate trend subsequently led to dollar buying, and the pair hit the previous day's low. The pair closed the session holding the lows towards the end of the day.
market information
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
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| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
Today's line of attack
β Lower limit of range
The upper limit has no line that is likely to be conscious, so round numbers, etc., are likely to be conscious.
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
β upper range limit
β‘Lower limit of range
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day, the yen continued to sell off, and at one point tested Β₯153, but in New York, the dollar was sold off as the Fed's meeting summary strengthened speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year.
Although the final rise in the value of the yen was reduced, it remained at a high level and the yen's selling trend has not broken down significantly.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 152.00 - 153.50
Downwards, the focus is on support at the Β₯152 level, while upwards, the focus is on a move to test the Β₯153 level.
tactics
A phase in which it is easy to be aware of a push-buyer-oriented stance as the market continues to attack and defend in the high price range.
A forward stance that confirms the underlying trend is more effective than a reverse stance that takes advantage of short-term adjustment phases
trigger
A clear break above 153.00 could be material confirmation of stronger buying pressure
Conversely, a break below 152.00 should be watched as a sign of gains or a wider adjustment.
Note the time of day when US interest rate trends and the results of US economic indicators are likely to give a sense of direction.
override condition
If the downside accelerates below 151.80, the push-back scenario is likely to be negated.
On the other hand, if momentum does not continue above 153.50, the upside could slow down.
risk event
US initial unemployment insurance applications
Trends in US Treasury yields
Risk of statements by Japanese authorities on foreign exchange intervention.
position management
Position size is kept lower than usual and adjusted according to the price movement at 152.00-153.00.
Take profits frequently, with a target of 20-30 pips.
Losses are set flexibly when the market falls below 152.00 or when volatility expands rapidly.
checklist
See if support around 152.00 works
Determine whether 153.00 breakthrough is possible and sustainable
Check the strength of US dollar buying and selling due to US economic indicators and interest rate changes.
Market summary
The euro was sold off against the backdrop of French political uncertainty and temporarily fell below 1.1600 during the New York session.
The downward trend was subsequently reduced by dollar selling in response to the US interest rate trend, and the market closed with a lower whisker.
Overall, selling pressure remains, but resilience at the lows was also confirmed.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around the 1.1570-1.1700 area.
Downwards, the focus is on the sustainability of the 1.1600 break.
The upside confirms the strength of the return around 1.1700.
tactics
Short-term return to basics, but also beware of buying back in at the lows.
Consciousness of range rotation if direction is poor.
Flexibility is required to respond sensitively to initial price movements.
trigger
A clear move below 1.1600 would likely increase selling pressure.
A move above 1.1700 would increase the likelihood of a short-term return test.
Fluctuations may intensify with the start of European hours and the release of US economic indicators.
override condition
A sustained rise above 1.1720 would negate the downside scenario.
If the daily close can hold 1.1600, the sell-dominated scenario will weaken.
Switch to a range strategy once price movements are limited due to the absence of material
risk event
Changes in monetary policy stance as a result of statements by key Fed officials
Headlines related to European politics, particularly in France
US initial unemployment insurance claims and other economic indicators released.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.1600 is perceived as short-term downside support.
The area around 1.1650 is a likely return to the market.
Short-term chart shows a footprint with a lower whisker
Technical note (mid-term).
Still on a downward trend on a daily basis
The area around 1.1700 is likely to be perceived as an upper resistance zone on the return.
Focus is on whether the downtrend will bounce back to the downside
impression
It is worth noting that the resilience of the market was demonstrated after the milestone was broken, despite the predominance of selling.
Possibility of continued up/down swings rather than a one-way flow
The market is strongly waiting for materials, and excessive position taking is risky.
trade observations
In the short term, the basic form is to follow a move to test below 1.1600 with a sell-off.
On the other hand, if there are signs of a rebound at the lows, a small buy-back target is also useful.
Overall, it is advisable to keep positions light and limit risk.
checklist
1.1600 milestone to be monitored closely.
To review press headlines related to European politics.
Be prepared for the movement of the dollar before and after the release of US economic indicators.
Market summary
The previous day, pound selling prevailed from Tokyo to Europe and continued to test the downside.
In the New York hour, dollar sales in response to the Fed's meeting summary reduced the decline and lifted the price to a lower level.
Overall, there was an awareness of the firmness of the lower price, even though the selling trend remained.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around the 1.2170-1.2270 area.
Around 1.2200 is considered as support, while 1.2250-1.2270 is a return target.
tactics
Conscious of the basic strategy of mainly selling on the return.
However, be prepared to buy back in the short term if the low price fails.
trigger
Downward momentum is likely to strengthen below 1.2200
A break above 1.2270 could clarify the return trend.
Price movements in European hours will be key to today's direction
override condition
A clear close above 1.2300 would negate the return strategy.
If the strong rebound continues, the low scenario will be temporarily revised.
risk event
Fluctuations in the pound due to the release of UK economic indicators.
US interest rate trends and statements by key figures.
Impact of geopolitical risks and European political instability.
position management
Keep new positions small and increase them after confirming the direction.
The profit margin is chopped at 20-30 pips.
Limit risk by placing stop-losses outside recent highs and lows.
checklist
1.2200 Watch the offensive and defensive
Check price movements in European hours and US interest rate trends.
Know in advance what indicators and key figures are scheduled to say.
Market summary
Despite the previous day's sell-off, the dollar was sold off in the New York hours following the Fed meeting summary, and a rebound at the lower end of the range was noted.
A daily positive coma with long lower whiskers was formed, confirming the presence of a buy-back at the lows.
Assumed range
Assumed price movement around 0.6470-0.6560
Buy-back pressure at the lower end, and a likely return at the upper end.
tactics
Basic stance is to keep range rotation in mind.
In the short term, a tactic of buying on the downside, while giving priority to gains on the return, is effective.
trigger
Downward test may accelerate if the price falls clearly below 0.6500
A break above 0.6560 would confirm a short-term return phase.
Focus on US index releases and resource price trends in Asian time.
override condition
A clear break above 0.6600 is likely to negate the downside scenario.
Even if there is a downside test, the view of continued extreme downside is restrained as long as 0.6450 is not broken.
risk event
Statements by Fed officials and US economic indicators.
China's economic-related data and resource price fluctuations.
Sudden market volatility due to geopolitical risks
position management
Smaller entry size to cope with volatility
Interest rates are set around 0.6530-0.6550.
Risk management based on losses below 0.6450
checklist
To check the response around 0.6500.
Determine the impact of resource prices and China-related indicators.
Keep a close watch on US interest rate developments and Fed-related news.
AI postcards: today's market
review
Although the previous day's highs were renewed in the European hour, they were pushed back to the upside above Β₯153, and in the New York hour, buying pressure increased again but could not break through and the highs were maintained and closed.
summary
Today's feature is that the JPY153 level milestone was conscious of and failed to be breached while the upward trend continued.
Overall, while maintaining high prices, there was a cautious approach to the upside.
While the trend of buying the dollar remained strong, the movement included an adjustment rather than an all-out sell-off of the yen.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time lacked a sense of direction, with the market continuing to struggle in the low 152 yen range.
Buying intensified in the European hour, reaching the previous day's highs, but was pushed back at Β₯153.
Buying again during the New York hour against the backdrop of rising US interest rates, and a test to the upside, but failed to break through.
Background and materials
Rising long-term US interest rates underpinned dollar buying, leading to a buy-back in New York hours.
On the other hand, the continued awareness of the prospect of interest rate cuts following the Fed's meeting summary is unlikely to lead to aggressive dollar buying.
Markets are oscillating between the direction of US monetary policy and caution about the level of the yen's depreciation.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 152.80 is considered a short-term push level.
Focus is on whether the resistance zone around 153.20 can be clearly broken through.
The daily shape of the market remains high with an upper whisker.
Technical note (mid-term).
The uptrend from the 150 yen level remains intact.
Above 153.50, there could be more room for upside, but currently the upside is noticeably heavy.
On the other hand, a move below Β₯152 could lead to a stronger adjustment.
impression
Although the upward trend continues, there are indications of a lack of material to break through the milestone.
Markets continue to react strongly to US interest rates and the Fed's policy stance, and remain susceptible to external factors
The general trend is upwards, but short-term adjustment risks need to be borne in mind
trade observations
The strategy of picking up the pushback is effective, but profit-taking moves should also be considered near milestones
Avoid large positions; multiple entries and closures are safer
Reversing at high prices needs to be judged carefully.
checklist
See if the underlying support works around 152.80.
Watch for a break through the 153.20-153.50 resistance zone.
Tracking the impact of US interest rate trends and Fed-related statements on the dollar-yen
review
Euro selling strengthened in the European hour and dollar buying accelerated in the New York hour, with a slight renewal of the selling target level.
summary
French political uncertainty weighed on the euro, leading to declines from European time onwards.
The decline was temporarily accelerated in the New York time as the US dollar was bought against the backdrop of US interest rate developments.
Eventually, after the final round of selling, the market narrowed down slightly and pulled back to a lower level, albeit at a lower price.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours were directionless and hovered around 1.1600.
Euro selling prevailed in the European hour, with the pair falling below 1.1600 at times.
The dollar was bought in the New York time, recording a decline that renewed the level targeted for the sell-off.
Background and materials
Continued political unrest in France weighed on the euro.
US interest rate developments supported dollar buying and were a factor in the decline in New York
The Fed minutes reinforced expectations of a rate cut, and the dollar was sold off at the end of the day to the downside.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Tests below 1.1600 but limited downside
Towards the end of the day, a lower whisker formed, leaving room for a short-term rebound.
The situation is likely to be more conscious of holding at recent lows
Technical note (mid-term).
The medium-term selling trend continues, but the firmness of the market around 1.1600 is also confirmed
The daily shape was accompanied by a lower whisker, indicating a certain degree of downside resilience
Developments in European political risks will be important in determining medium-term direction
impression
Selling momentum continued, but did not move significantly below the milestone.
Political risks and US monetary policy speculation make it difficult to see the direction of price movements
Overall, the development can be said to be balanced, with weakness but still room for a short-term rebound.
trade observations
The market continued to test the downside, but a rebound was easy to enter around 1.1600.
While the return was limited, it was not a sell-only trend, and adjustments were confirmed at the pushpoint.
Strategies are likely to differ depending on how they perceive price movements at the lows.
checklist
Whether the level below 1.1600 can be clearly passed
Strength of the impact of French political unrest on the market.
Directionality of the US dollar due to changes in the Fed rate cut scenario.
review
Selling of the pound strengthened in the European hour and fell quickly in the New York hour due to accelerated dollar buying.
summary
Tokyo time continued to lack a sense of direction.
Selling became more prevalent from the European time onwards and the market began to test the downside
Dollar buying accelerated and the decline was extended into the New York time.
Today's price movements
Selling pressure increased in the European hour, with a move to test the milestone.
In New York, the dollar was predominantly bought against the backdrop of US interest rate developments.
Slightly renewed target line for selling and closed lower.
Background and materials
There were no significant economic indicators released from the UK side and the situation was materially difficult.
In the US, interest rate cut speculation increased after the release of the Fed's minutes.
As a result, the market development was noticeably dollar-driven.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.2600 was identified as temporary support.
The upside was restrained around 1.2700, with the return to the market functioning.
The short-term downward trend continued.
Technical note (mid-term).
Weak candlestick formed on a daily basis with a lower whisker
Likely to be aware of upside weakness unless a clear break above 1.2800 is achieved.
The downtrend trend is maintained in the medium term.
impression
The pound remained weak on the return and led by the dollar
Limited resilience at the lows, confirming a supply-demand bias.
Markets were sensitive to the dollar factor despite material difficulties.
trade observations
The predominant trend was to respond to short-term return phases with selling.
After the milestone line was renewed, there was scattered selling in an attempt to increase the price range.
Towards the end of the day, there was a sense that prices were consolidating at the lows.
checklist
Check whether support is maintained around 1.2600
Determine the strength of the upside resistance at the 1.2700 level.
Watch US interest rate developments and changes in the dollar index.
review
Although buying was strong in Tokyo time, the market was pushed back in European time, and a temporary test to the upside in New York time, eventually closing at the previous day's low and closing at a lower level.
summary
The Australian dollar was temporarily bought back, but the direction of direction was perceived to be downwards due to increased pressure on the dollar.
As a result, highs were limited and the day was marked by lower prices
Today's price movements
There was a move to test around 0.6500 in Tokyo hours.
Selling pressure intensified in European hours, with an awareness of the need to seek lower prices.
A temporary rebound was interspersed with a brief rebound in the New York hours, but eventually the trend strengthened to the downside.
Background and materials
There were no significant economic indicators on the Australian side and material was limited.
The main reason for the decline was the predominant buying of the dollar against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates.
Speculation ahead of the Fed minutes also affected the market.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 0.6500 is considered as a guide to the upside.
On the downside, temporary support was found around 0.6450.
A clear trend of predominant return selling in the short term.
Technical note (mid-term).
Although accompanied by a daily downside whisker, the overall trend remains at the low end of the range
Unless a clear recovery of 0.6550 is achieved, the return is likely to be perceived as limited.
The medium-term downside target is likely to be around 0.6400.
impression
The Australian dollar had a buying phase, but was pushed back into a trend led by US interest rate trends.
Market participants were more inclined to sell back, giving the impression that movement was restricted in the absence of clear material.
The Australian dollar lacked strength on its own and was easily swayed by dollar-led developments.
trade observations
In the short term, it was difficult to push for a rebound, and selling on the return was more advantageous
Buying is unlikely to be aggressive in a situation where the price cannot clearly exceed 0.6500
Selling positions continued to be the predominant driver of the day, as the price remained low towards the end of the day.
checklist
Continue to monitor developments in US interest rates.
Be aware of upside resistance around 0.6500.
Keep an eye on the support zone around 0.6450-0.6400.
FX Diary.