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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | β | Aug Balance of payments and trade balance |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | Aug Industrial production [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | Aug Industrial production [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β β | US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage absence | - | π¨π³ China | - |
Today's Outlook.
The previous day, the yen sold off and, in addition, the dollar bought the yen to its weakest level in seven months. Today, too, the yen is likely to follow this trend and remain at a high level, and we will be in a position to see at what level it will remain high.
The instability of the French political situation has weighed on the euro, which continues to come under selling pressure. By Tokyo time, the pair had already fallen below the previous day's lows and a test of the downside was evident. It remains to be seen whether the selling trend will continue in European hours and beyond, or whether there will be a buy-back at lower levels. In a predominantly euro selling trend, it will be interesting to see at what level the price will stop falling.
Selling pressure on the pound continues, with the pair already testing lower lows from the previous day in Tokyo hours. The selling trend is likely to continue into European hours and the strength of the return may be limited. Overall, the day is likely to be a day in search of lower prices, looking for a pause at any level.
The Australian dollar continues to come under selling pressure, with the pair having already fallen below the previous day's lows in Tokyo hours and testing the downside. Weakness is likely to continue into European hours, and any return movement is likely to be limited. Overall, attention will be focused on the level at which the price will cease to fall as it searches for the lower end of the range.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
From Tokyo to Europe, the yen was sold off and temporarily rose to Β₯153. However, when the Fed's meeting minutes were released late in the evening and the prospect of a rate cut by the end of the year strengthened, dollar selling prevailed and the momentum of the rally was cut. As a result, after testing the Β₯153 level, the pair was sluggish and closed the session with some adjustments.
The pair was in a downtesting trend from Tokyo to Europe, with selling prevailing against the backdrop of French political unrest, and temporarily dipped below the 1.1600 mark in New York, but subsequently rebounded on the back of buying. When the Fed's minutes were released late in the day, the dollar was sold off and the pair closed lower as the prospect of an interest rate cut by the end of the year strengthened. Despite the overall selling, the day also confirmed the resilience of the market at the lows.
The pair was sold during the Tokyo session, but temporarily bounced back during the European session and the pair was able to test the downside again during the New York session, but the downside was reduced as the late night release of the Fed's meeting summary strengthened expectations of a rate cut before the end of the year and dollar sales gained the upper hand. As a result, the market ended the day on a positive note, holding at the lows despite the selling.
The dollar was sold off in the Tokyo timeframe, but it was bought back in the European timeframe, and the downward movement continued in the New York timeframe, but the late night release of the Fed's meeting summary strengthened speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year, and the dollar was sold off. As a result, a positive daily line with a long frame with long beards was formed.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
A situation where the yen has reached its weakest level in seven months due to a combination of yen selling and dollar buying.
The price has settled in the low 150s and remains in a high range.
Assumed range
Around 150.50 - expected to hover around 152.00
The downside is likely to be support conscious around 150.50, while the upside is likely to be 152.00.
tactics
Basic stance is a push-buy priority trend.
Looking to test the upside while picking up short-term adjustments
trigger
A clear break above 151.50 would be considered an upside move.
Adjustment selling may intensify if the price falls below 150.50
Attention should be paid to the time of the release of US economic indicators.
override condition
Scenario negated if the market falls below 150.30 and the downward trend strengthens
Also note a slowdown in momentum in the event of a long upper whisker.
risk event
US CPI and other major economic indicators
Changes in Bank of Japan officials' statements and policy stance
Changes in the supply and demand for the dollar as a result of trends in long-term US interest rates
position management
Smaller than usual size entry and preparation for overheating.
Interest gains are made in steps of 20-40 pips.
Losses are clearly set below 150.30.
checklist
Is support at 150.50 holding?
Is there momentum to break through 151.50?
Will US CPI and interest rate trends change the market trend?
Market summary
Euro selling prevails against a backdrop of French political uncertainty.
A clear downward test of the previous day's lows already in Tokyo time.
Assumed range
Around 1.0550 - expected to hover around 1.0650
The downside is likely to be around 1.0550, while the upside is likely to be the resistance zone at 1.0650.
tactics
Basic policy is to mainly sell on the return.
Priority is given to the flow of selling to capture short-term returns.
trigger
Beware of an acceleration to the downside in the event of a clear break below 1.0550.
A break above 1.0650 could strengthen the buyback trend.
Price movements in the European time zone are likely to determine today's direction.
override condition
Sell scenario negated if rise continues above 1.0670
Also, test lower prices but be wary of a rebound if long lower whiskers remain
risk event
New reports on French politics
Eurozone economic indicators, especially related to inflation
Trends in long-term US interest rates and the US dollar index.
position management
Adjust trade size sparingly and be prepared for sudden fluctuations
Interest gains are made in steps of around 20-40 pips.
Stop-loss is set at a clear break above 1.0670.
checklist
Is support for 1.0550 maintained?
Will there be a move to break through the 1.0650 upside resistance?
Will French political news after European hours affect the market?
Market summary
Selling pressure on the pound continues, with a test to the downside below the previous day's low in Tokyo hours.
A selling trend is still in place and the return is limited through European hours.
Assumed range
Around 1.2170 - expected to hover around 1.2300
The downside is likely to be support around 1.2170 and the upside is likely to be 1.2300 as a resistance zone.
tactics
Basic stance is to prioritise a return to the market.
Even if there is a short-term reversal, the policy is to wait until selling pressure is confirmed before launching a stockpile.
trigger
Selling may accelerate if the price falls clearly below 1.2170.
Scenario where a break above 1.2300 would strengthen the buy-back trend.
European hour index releases are likely to be a factor influencing direction.
override condition
If the rise is sustained above 1.2320, the sell scenario is negated.
Also, be wary of a rebound if it tests the downside and leaves a long lower whisker.
risk event
UK economic indicators, especially PMI and employment-related
Key US indicators and long-term interest rate trends.
Statements on UK politics and fiscal policy.
position management
Smaller than usual size, mainly to accommodate sales.
Interest gains are made in steps of 20-40 pips.
Stop-losses are set above 1.2320 to limit risk.
checklist
Will support for 1.2170 be maintained?
Will there be a move to break through resistance at 1.2300?
Will economic indicators and US interest rate trends change direction in European time?
Market summary
The Australian dollar continued to come under selling pressure and tested lower in Tokyo hours, falling below the previous day's lows.
Weakness has been a conscious factor since European hours, and the return has been limited.
Overall, the focus will continue to be on exploring the lower end of the range and identifying the downside level.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 0.6450-0.6550
The downside is likely to be around 0.6450 as support.
The upside is considered to be around 0.6550 as resistance.
tactics
The basic stance is to consider mainly return sales.
Short-term buy-backs seen as limited, with priority given to following the flow.
Build entries with an awareness of the swing within the range.
trigger
Downward pressure is likely to increase below 0.6450
A test to the upside above 0.6550 is conscious.
Price movements after European hours and the release of US indices are volatile factors.
override condition
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6550 and consolidates at a higher level
If the buy-back momentum strengthens in the short term and the sell scenario breaks down
If the form of the rebound is confirmed by the lower price.
risk event
Release of US economic indicators, especially those related to inflation and employment.
Chinese economic indicators and resource prices.
Geopolitical risks and changes in overall financial market sentiment.
position management
Keep entry size to half the normal size.
Focus on small gains of 20-30 pips.
Stop-losses are set at recent highs or upper range limits.
checklist
Check for selling acceleration below 0.6450
Watch for a move above 0.6550
Check trends in US interest rates and the dollar index together.
AI postcards: today's market
review
From Tokyo to Europe, the yen was sold off and temporarily rose to Β₯153, but was sluggish due to dollar selling following the Fed's meeting summary.
summary
Dollar/Yen holds high, but a day of shaky direction due to shifting policy expectations
The market was aware of the prospect of a rate cut before the end of the year, but still confirmed that the yen remains weak in the background.
Today's price movements
The yen continued to sell off from Tokyo time to Europe, testing the Β₯153 level.
The market was pushed down by profit-taking in the early part of the New York session, but was then supported to the downside by buy-backs.
Dollar selling prevailed after the release of the Fed's minutes, with a stronger adjustment towards the end of the day.
Background and materials
On the Japanese side, there was little speculation about additional monetary policy, and the yen sold off against the backdrop of interest rate differentials.
In the US, dollar buying was mixed on the back of rising long-term interest rates and the prospect of a rate cut that emerged from the Fed's meeting summary.
Political factors and geopolitical risks were limited, with market focus on the monetary policy outlook
Technical memorandum (short term)
Maintains an upward trend on a daily basis, but is aware of the heaviness of the upside near 153.00.
On the hourly timeframe, the upward wave paused and a push was seen to test the confirmation of the push.
The 150.80-151.20 area is perceived as short-term support.
Technical note (mid-term).
The weekly price has reached a seven-month high and is still within an uptrend.
The 152.50-153.00 area acts as an important resistance zone, and price movements after a breakthrough will be watched closely.
In the medium term, the first half of Β₯150 is a support band, limiting downside risk.
impression
The tug-of-war between interest rate differentials and policy outlook became even clearer, and short-term direction remained difficult to read.
On the other hand, the trend of a weaker yen has not been broken, and the situation can be said to be prone to sudden fluctuations depending on the material.
trade observations
There was a risk in following the buy at higher prices, and it was important to carefully assess the push.
A day of position management was required, as contrarian selling should be limited to a limited price range target.
As a result, the development tested both the up and down sides of the market, and was a phase where price management should be prioritised over direction.
checklist
Whether the resistance zone around 153.00 can be broken above
Can support around 150.80-151.20 be maintained?
Will we continue to pay attention to US interest rate developments and the Fed's changing stance?
review
Selling dominated from Tokyo to Europe, with a test of 1.1600 in New York, but the pair rebounded and closed lower on dollar selling after the Fed meeting summary.
summary
French political unrest continued to weigh on the euro, which continued to seek lower prices
On the other hand, buy-back demand was also seen at the lows, confirming a certain resilience.
Overall, the day was dominated by selling, but the decline was not one-sided and included adjustments.
Today's price movements
Selling continued from Tokyo to European hours, with a clear downward trend.
The pair briefly dipped below the 1.1600 area early in the New York session, but subsequently rebounded from the downside.
The market turned to a more favourable dollar sell-off towards the end of the day, and closed on a downward trend.
Background and materials
Political unrest in France remained a risk factor for the market.
US interest rate developments and the Fed minutes encouraged dollar selling and supported the eurodollar.
Economic indicators in the European area lacked major surprises, with political factors and US monetary policy the main factors overall.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.1600 was considered as a downside guideline and a rebound came in after the interruption.
In the short term, the price movement was unstable, with a test of the downside but interrupted by a return.
Scattered rebounds with lower whiskers on the 5- and 15-minute timeframes, despite the predominance of selling.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily downward trend continues and the return phase remains limited.
The pair is aware of upside resistance towards the 1.1700 level, a shape that is likely to be the starting point for a return to the market.
The weekly price has remained in the recent low range, and the phase of directional assessment is continuing.
impression
Although the day was dominated by selling, the resilience of the market at the lows could not be ignored.
Market sentiment remains tilted towards selling the euro, but the situation remains easily swayed by US dollar material.
It is felt that caution is needed on short-term swings ahead of event risk
trade observations
The focus was on the attack around 1.1600, and the rebound after the interruption was a reminder of the importance of risk management.
Short-term trades were established both to follow the downside and to target a rebound, but the environment was not conducive to carry-over.
Strong impression of position liquidation as a result of dollar selling towards the end of the day.
checklist
Check for attack and resilience in the vicinity of 1.1600
Reassessing the impact of the Fed minutes on dollar material
Examining the continuity of European political risks on euro selling.
review
Selling in Tokyo hours was preceded by a brief buying back in Europe, but the market tested the downside again in New York and closed lower due to dollar selling following the Fed's meeting summary.
summary
Overall, the day was dominated by pound selling.
However, adjustments were made by selling dollars at the lows, and the downward movement was confirmed by the close rather than a full-scale decline.
Pound weakness remains, but resilience was also seen at milestones
Today's price movements
Tokyo time was marked by selling and testing the downwards direction.
Temporary buy-backs during European hours led to a short-lived downside
The decline was limited by dollar sales following the minutes of the meeting, although it tested the downward direction again towards the New York time.
Background and materials
New material from the UK was scarce and no single supportive factor for the pound was seen.
In the US, the release of the Fed minutes triggered dollar selling on speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year.
The overall market was susceptible to dollar-led price movements.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.1600 was identified as a downside milestone.
Despite continued short-term selling dominance, a rebound in the New York hour saw a move to the lower end of the market.
The return phase was limited and the upside remained heavy.
Technical note (mid-term).
Returns continue to be restrained in the daily downtrend
The area around 1.1700 is likely to be considered as a return control point.
The medium-term sell-bias for the pound is maintained, and the direction is likely to depend on the dollar.
impression
Pound sterling remains weak and heavily influenced by the dollar amid material difficulties
The agenda provided short-term support, but has yet to change the underlying trend.
The phase can be described as one of continued caution to the downside.
trade observations
Even in a predominantly selling trend, follow-on entries had to be made with caution, as a rebound was possible at the lows.
A short-term rebound was a possibility if the downward movement around 1.1600 could be confirmed.
Overall, a return stance prevailed, but management had to take into account a rebound triggered by the prospect of a rate cut.
checklist
Find out how the prospect of a rate cut in the Fed minutes affected the dollar sell-off
Review whether the downside support around 1.1600 has been effective
Reflect on both the point of return and the short-term rebound and use this in your next strategy
review
In the Tokyo time, selling was ahead, but in the European time, buying returned and the lower price was recovered, and in the New York time, the dollar was sold predominantly in response to the Fed's meeting summary without any movement, and a positive frame line was formed.
summary
A mix of selling and buying back was seen between Tokyo and European hours.
New York hours lacked notable movement, with the flow changing following the late night Fed meeting summary.
Ultimately, the day ended on a positive note with lower and upper whiskers, and lacked a sense of direction
Today's price movements
Selling pressure in the first half of the day, but rebounded in the European hour and showed resilience.
The New York hour was stalemated, with a wait-and-see mood prevailing until the Fed minutes were released.
The Australian dollar recovered after the announcement, with dollar sales prevailing.
Background and materials
Markets closely watched the Fed's monetary policy outlook and reacted sensitively to the minutes
Increased speculation of a rate cut before the end of the year prompted dollar sales.
Materials on the Australian side were scarce, and the overall situation was swung by US factors.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The daily line is a coma positive line with long whiskers, making it difficult to see the short-term direction of the market.
Lower prices were supported near the previous day's lows, but upside was also limited.
In the short term, a rebound from the lower end of the range has been confirmed.
Technical note (mid-term).
In the medium term, the market continues to move within a range and no clear trend has formed.
Continued attack and defence around moving averages, direction-seeking phase.
A situation where both downside support and upside resistance are easily perceived.
impression
The flow was led by US monetary policy throughout, and the Australian dollar itself had little material of its own.
Price movements have been limited and the phase remains directionally difficult.
Participants were often happy or sad at the dollar-side news.
trade observations
There were certain opportunities for short-term trading across the buy-back from the sell-back.
However, the NY hour was not very active and unreasonable entries were risky.
The day was dominated by positional adjustments to the event.
checklist
Check market reaction to the Fed's policy outlook.
Clear understanding of the lower and upper range levels
Check availability and impact of Australian economic indicators.
FX Diary.