Market summary

The election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) strengthened expectations of fiscal expansion and the yen continued to weaken, keeping the dollar at the 150 yen level.

Assumed range

Assumed around 149.50 - 151.00 area.

Continued stagnation at levels above psychological milestones and awareness of up-and-down testing

tactics

Focus on entry near support on a push-buy basis.

On the other hand, be cautious when chasing higher prices and prioritise gains at the upper end of the range.

trigger

A clear breach of 151.00 could reignite selling pressure on the yen.

A break below 149.50 will lead to a breakdown of the push-back strategy

Tokyo time: key government officials' statements European time and New York time: focus on US economic indicators

override condition

Push-back strategy negated if range lower boundary falls well below 149.50

Conversely, if the price breaks through 151.00 and becomes entrenched, it will be difficult to establish a return strategy.

risk event

Possible foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese authorities and related statements.

Risk of US government agency closure and congressional-related reports.

Announcements of major US economic indicators and interest rate trends.

position management

Position sizes should be about half the normal size to prepare for increased volatility.

Prioritise short-term profits with a profit margin of 30-50 pips.

Stop-losses are set when a clear break below support or resistance.

checklist

Confirmation of the degree to which the 150 yen level has been established.

Watch the statements and intervention stance of the Japanese authorities.

Inspect US economic indicators to see if they continue to be a factor in buying the dollar.

Market summary

The downside was seen against the backdrop of political unrest in France, but it was bought back by the close, leaving a lower whisker on the daily chart and confirming the underlying support, albeit unsteadily.

Assumed range

Assumed around 1.1660 - 1.1740 area.

Both a test of the downside and upside are possible, and the initial direction is noteworthy

tactics

Based on range rotation, consider pushing near support and selling back near resistance.

Respond flexibly to short-term movements and prioritise gains.

trigger

A clear break above 1.1740 would strengthen the upside test.

A break below 1.1660 could shift the trend to test the downside again.

Indicators and key figures in the European time and US economic indicators in the New York time are likely to be material.

override condition

If the price falls significantly below 1.1660 and the daily lows continue, the push-back strategy is negated.

Conversely, if 1.1740 is clearly breached and established, it will be difficult to establish a return strategy.

risk event

Additional reports on French politics and widening political risks.

New Eurozone inflation-related data published.

Risk of US government agency closure and key economic indicators released.

position management

Keep position sizes smaller than usual and be prepared for rough price movements.

Aim for a profit margin of 20-40 pips and focus on short-term profit-taking.

Losses are taken when a break below support or a break through resistance is clearly identified.

checklist

Check that the range between 1.1660 and 1.1740 is maintained

Watch the impact of developments in French politics on the euro.

Inspect US interest rates and US economic indicators to see if they influence the direction of the dollar.

Market summary

The previous day continued to be directionless, with limited up and down movement.

Lack of major material today, and a day of searching for short-term direction is expected.

Reactions to US interest rate developments and UK economic indicators may lead to local price movements

Assumed range

Assumed range centred around the 1.3380-1.3480 area.

Lower prices are likely to be aware around 1.3380, while higher prices are likely to be restrained around 1.3480.

Conscious of coming and going within a narrow price range in the short term

tactics

Focus on range rotation as the current situation lacks a clear direction

Consider push-buying at lower prices, combined with return selling at higher prices.

Aiming for small gains and avoiding unreasonable positions.

trigger

The focus on the upside is whether the 1.3500 is clearly crossed.

A downside is noted if a break below 1.3360 is confirmed.

UK economic indicators in the European time zone and US interest rate developments in the New York time zone could be turning points.

override condition

Return selling tactic may be negated above 1.3520.

Conversely, push-back tactics are less likely to work below 1.3340.

Check for a change in direction at the daily close.

risk event

UK economic indicators (related to construction and services)

Press reports on US interest rates and the risk of government shutdowns.

Sudden fluctuations due to statements by key figures in major countries

position management

Maintain a small position size due to range assumptions.

Aim for small gains of 20-30 pips.

Tight stop-losses based on recent highs and lows.

checklist

Trade with an awareness of the 1.3380-1.3480 range.

Check the release times of UK and US economic indicators.

Keep positions light in case of sudden news or statements by key figures.

Market summary

On the previous day, the trend changed from market to market, with buying leading in Tokyo, selling in Europe and buying of the dollar in New York.

However, overall, the market remained in a small range around 0.6600 and lacked a sense of direction.

Today, too, there is a lack of significant new material, and the phase is likely to be a search for short-term direction.

Assumed range

Assumed range centred around 0.6580-0.6640.

Likely to be aware of the downside near 0.6580 and the upside near 0.6640.

Large trends are unlikely to emerge and mainly small movements are expected.

tactics

In the short term, range rotation is the basic tactic.

Image of repeated push-buying on the way down and return selling on the way up.

Avoid large positions and aim for small gains.

trigger

An upside is if there is a clear move above 0.6650.

Downside is if a break below 0.6570 is confirmed.

Flows in the European time zone and US interest rate developments in the New York time zone are key.

override condition

Return strategy may be negated above 0.6660.

Conversely, below 0.6560, a push-buy strategy is less likely to work.

Watch for signs of range rejection at the daily close position.

risk event

Release of economic indicators relevant to Australia and China.

US interest rate-related reports and risk of government agency closures.

Sudden material from statements by key national figures

position management

Maintain light positions due to range centres.

Execute interest gains early, around 15-25 pips.

Tight stop-losses based on recent highs and lows

checklist

Respond with an awareness of the 0.6580-0.6640 range.

Check developments in US interest rates and news related to the Chinese economy.

Keep positions light in case of sudden events.

review

After continuing to hover around the ¥150 level during the Tokyo time, the yen was sold predominantly during the European time, and during the New York time, the yen was sold against the backdrop of rising US interest rates, breaking through the August highs and closing at a higher level.

summary

The weakening of the yen was a trend supported by political factors and rising US interest rates.

Crossing the milestone has moved the market to test the sustainability of short-term price movements.

The market is entering a phase of searching for new upside potential.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours were dominated by firings in the 150.20-150.80 area.

The yen was sold predominantly through the European hours, rising to a level of 151.00.

During the New York session, the dollar was bought against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates, reaching around 151.50 at one point.

Background and materials

The election of Mr Takaichi as LDP president and expectations of fiscal expansion were a factor in selling the yen.

In the US, rising long-term interest rates supported dollar buying.

No particular risk aversion materialised and the market was dominated by trading with an awareness of the weakening of the yen.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The latest rise has clearly broken through 151.00 and the August high.

Short-term moving averages are supporting lower prices and buying pressure is being maintained.

The RSI is at a high level and there is a sense of short-term overheating in the market.

Technical note (mid-term).

The uptrend is continuing on a daily basis, with the lows being made

Weekly trend shows signs of strengthening as it crosses above long-term resistance

On the other hand, it is approaching the upper Bollinger band limit and the possibility of an adjustment remains.

impression

A combination of political factors and US interest rates solidified the yen's weakness on the day.

Short-term price movements showed strength, but caution must be exercised against overheating.

Markets are entering a phase where they are waiting for the next material, and will carefully check the sustainability of the movement

trade observations

The push-buy stance was effective, but new entrants needed to be cautious when crossing milestones

In short-term trading, gains at higher prices are effective, and follow-on buying is risky.

There was room for strategic entry, checking for range cut-offs.

checklist

To check sustainability after breaking through 151.00.

Keep a close watch on US interest rate developments for continued support.

Prepare for the risk of short-term adjustments due to overheating.

review

The euro was sold off in Tokyo and accelerated in Europe, with a brief buying back in New York, but was sold off again towards the end of the day, but the fall did not continue and trading ended.

summary

Overall weakness as concerns over French politics continue to weigh on the euro

On the other hand, the downward momentum was slowed by buying back in New York, leaving a small return at the end of the day.

The general trend of selling the euro continued, but there were times when it was difficult to push through.

Today's price movements

Downward pressure strengthened below the 1.10 level in Tokyo hours.

Selling accelerated into the European hour, testing the late 1.09 level.

In the New York session, a temporary buy-back was made, bringing the rate back to the low 1.10s, but it was sold off again towards the close.

Background and materials

Continued uncertainty over the French political situation undermined the euro's investment appeal.

US interest rate developments continued to provide support for the dollar and the relative weakness of the euro

Weak European economic indicators were also a factor reinforcing the euro sell-off.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The price continued to attack and defy the 1.10 mark, which was perceived as a psychological milestone.

Support confirmed once near the previous day's low, but rebound limited.

Short-term moving averages maintain a downwards trend, indicating upside potential

Technical note (mid-term).

Daily trend of cutting highs continues and the return phase tends to remain limited.

On a weekly basis, the adjustment from the 1.12 level is continuing and the 1.09 area is a candidate for medium-term support.

The long-term trend remains in favour of the dollar

impression

Euro selling due to political factors continues, but not to a sharp fall, and markets remain cautious.

The impression is that the situation remained in a certain equilibrium with buy-backs while testing lower prices.

The environment is still difficult to tilt in one direction and is likely to swing depending on the direction of the material.

trade observations

The strategy of riding the dominant short-term selling trend was effective, but the buyback in the New York time forced some adjustments

The market was geared towards short-term trading, with repeated trading attacks and defensive moves around the 1.10 milestone.

Carrying over required careful position management as it was difficult to establish a sense of direction.

checklist

Check for media coverage of key political risks

Observe support holding around 1.10

US interest rate trends and the US dollar index will be closely monitored together.

review

Selling of the pound began in Tokyo and accelerated in the European hour, but the pound was temporarily bought back in the New York hour, but sold off again towards the end of the day, ending near the previous day's low.

summary

The day started with a strong selling trend, which was interspersed with buy-backs, but also with an awareness of the strength of the dollar

Selling momentum weakened towards the end of the day and the market traded in a lower range, ending the day lacking a sense of direction.

Overall, the day was marked by a continued search for lower prices while reacting to materials.

Today's price movements

The Tokyo session was preceded by selling, with the pair falling to around the low 1.29s.

The decline accelerated into the European hour, with the previous day's low in sight.

In New York, there was a temporary buy-back, but the dollar once again gained the upper hand and the level was reduced.

Background and materials

Weak indicators in the UK services and manufacturing sectors have increased uncertainty about the economic outlook.

In the US, rising long-term interest rates were perceived as a factor in buying the dollar, restraining the return of the pound.

The mood of risk aversion across Europe was also affected, with the general strength of the US dollar in currencies.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around 1.2900 was perceived as temporary support.

In the return phase, the upside is around 1.2950, with return selling prevailing in the short term.

On the downside, the previous day's low remained a level of interest

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily trend continues to test the previous day's lows, and it remains to be seen whether the lower whiskers will remain.

The 4-hourly trend continues to explore the lower boundary of the range, with no clear sign of a downside

In the medium term, the 1.2800 level is considered as the next important support zone.

impression

The day was dominated by selling, but there were signs of a bottoming out towards the close.

Markets have been volatile between concerns about the UK economy and US interest rate trends.

Future economic indicators and interest rate trends need to be monitored in order to find a sense of direction

trade observations

In the short term, there were many occasions when the return sale worked effectively.

However, given the buy-back seen in the New York time, there remains a risk of a sell-only approach.

It was a situation where the trader was required to stick to trading in small price increments.

checklist

Check results of UK economic indicators.

Tracking developments in long-term US interest rates and the US dollar index

Watch closely whether the support zone around 1.2900 is maintained.

review

After testing the previous day's high in Tokyo time, the market stalled, and from Europe onwards, selling dominated, closing near the previous day's low.

summary

Lack of new material from Australia, and the overall development continued to be driven by external factors.

The Australian dollar was pushed back towards the end of the day as the US interest rate trend swung in favour of the dollar.

Finally, the market landed in a lower range and ended the day with limited direction.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time temporarily rose to around 0.6640, testing the previous day's high.

Selling pressure increased and the pair tested below 0.6600 by the European hour.

A temporary buy-back was seen in the New York hours, but the pair was sold off again towards the end of the day and landed near 0.6580.

Background and materials

There were no new indicators relevant to the Australian economy and limited news related to the Chinese economy.

In the US, the trend of a predominant dollar buying spilled over into the Australian dollar, as people became aware of the rise in long-term interest rates.

Overall, the situation was easily swayed by external factors as market participants searched for clues.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around 0.6640 was perceived as recent upside resistance.

Lower support has formed around 0.6580 and the short-term range is becoming clearer

Intraday highs and lows were limited to around 60 pips, with volatility remaining at low levels

Technical note (mid-term).

On the daily basis, the previous day's upper shadow and today's lower shadow appear in contrast, with a series of candlesticks lacking a sense of direction.

Moving averages continue to trend sideways and lack trendiness

Conscious of the possibility of continued up/down testing within the wider range of 0.6550-0.6700.

impression

Lack of material on the Australian side has focused market attention on US interest rates and external factors.

The impression is that even if there are some short-term swings up and down, the ability to break out of the range is lacking.

The market is in a strong mood of waiting for the next material, and it is easy to say that the situation is likely to continue to hold.

trade observations

While upside movement was limited, the downside remained firm and caution was required for both shorts and longs.

Short-term scalping focused on push-back and return sales in narrow price ranges

It was easy to be aware of rotational strategies such as aiming for a rebound at the lower end of the range or selling at the upper end.

checklist

Are developments in long-term US interest rates influencing the overall direction of the dollar?

Will small movements in the Chinese economy and resource prices spill over to the Australian dollar?

Which way out of the 0.6550-0.6640 range will be the focus of short-term decisions?