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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Aug New orders in manufacturing [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Aug New orders in manufacturing [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage absence | - | 🇨🇳 China | - |
Today's Outlook.
Following the election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, expectations of fiscal expansion have spread and the yen continues to come under pressure. The yen continues to hover above the 150 yen level, a psychological milestone, and it is easy to be aware of the need to test the upside. We are in a phase of assessing how far the short-term momentum can be sustained.
The market was pushed lower on the previous day against the backdrop of political unrest in France, but a buy-back was made towards the end of the day, leaving the market with a lower whisker on the daily chart. This move has led some to believe that the downside has consolidated, but it is not enough to be certain and the market remains volatile. The initial sense of direction will be watched today to see whether the market will test the downside again or whether it will confirm the underlying support and test the upside.
The previous day continued to be directionless. Today will be another day of searching for short-term direction without any major material.
The previous day was a day without a sense of direction, with the market changing the flow from one market to the next, but remaining within a small range. Today is also likely to be a day of searching for short-term direction without any major material.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) strengthened expectations of fiscal expansion and the yen continued to weaken, keeping the dollar at the 150 yen level.
Assumed range
Assumed around 149.50 - 151.00 area.
Continued stagnation at levels above psychological milestones and awareness of up-and-down testing
tactics
Focus on entry near support on a push-buy basis.
On the other hand, be cautious when chasing higher prices and prioritise gains at the upper end of the range.
trigger
A clear breach of 151.00 could reignite selling pressure on the yen.
A break below 149.50 will lead to a breakdown of the push-back strategy
Tokyo time: key government officials' statements European time and New York time: focus on US economic indicators
override condition
Push-back strategy negated if range lower boundary falls well below 149.50
Conversely, if the price breaks through 151.00 and becomes entrenched, it will be difficult to establish a return strategy.
risk event
Possible foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese authorities and related statements.
Risk of US government agency closure and congressional-related reports.
Announcements of major US economic indicators and interest rate trends.
position management
Position sizes should be about half the normal size to prepare for increased volatility.
Prioritise short-term profits with a profit margin of 30-50 pips.
Stop-losses are set when a clear break below support or resistance.
checklist
Confirmation of the degree to which the 150 yen level has been established.
Watch the statements and intervention stance of the Japanese authorities.
Inspect US economic indicators to see if they continue to be a factor in buying the dollar.
Market summary
The downside was seen against the backdrop of political unrest in France, but it was bought back by the close, leaving a lower whisker on the daily chart and confirming the underlying support, albeit unsteadily.
Assumed range
Assumed around 1.1660 - 1.1740 area.
Both a test of the downside and upside are possible, and the initial direction is noteworthy
tactics
Based on range rotation, consider pushing near support and selling back near resistance.
Respond flexibly to short-term movements and prioritise gains.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1740 would strengthen the upside test.
A break below 1.1660 could shift the trend to test the downside again.
Indicators and key figures in the European time and US economic indicators in the New York time are likely to be material.
override condition
If the price falls significantly below 1.1660 and the daily lows continue, the push-back strategy is negated.
Conversely, if 1.1740 is clearly breached and established, it will be difficult to establish a return strategy.
risk event
Additional reports on French politics and widening political risks.
New Eurozone inflation-related data published.
Risk of US government agency closure and key economic indicators released.
position management
Keep position sizes smaller than usual and be prepared for rough price movements.
Aim for a profit margin of 20-40 pips and focus on short-term profit-taking.
Losses are taken when a break below support or a break through resistance is clearly identified.
checklist
Check that the range between 1.1660 and 1.1740 is maintained
Watch the impact of developments in French politics on the euro.
Inspect US interest rates and US economic indicators to see if they influence the direction of the dollar.
Market summary
The previous day continued to be directionless, with limited up and down movement.
Lack of major material today, and a day of searching for short-term direction is expected.
Reactions to US interest rate developments and UK economic indicators may lead to local price movements
Assumed range
Assumed range centred around the 1.3380-1.3480 area.
Lower prices are likely to be aware around 1.3380, while higher prices are likely to be restrained around 1.3480.
Conscious of coming and going within a narrow price range in the short term
tactics
Focus on range rotation as the current situation lacks a clear direction
Consider push-buying at lower prices, combined with return selling at higher prices.
Aiming for small gains and avoiding unreasonable positions.
trigger
The focus on the upside is whether the 1.3500 is clearly crossed.
A downside is noted if a break below 1.3360 is confirmed.
UK economic indicators in the European time zone and US interest rate developments in the New York time zone could be turning points.
override condition
Return selling tactic may be negated above 1.3520.
Conversely, push-back tactics are less likely to work below 1.3340.
Check for a change in direction at the daily close.
risk event
UK economic indicators (related to construction and services)
Press reports on US interest rates and the risk of government shutdowns.
Sudden fluctuations due to statements by key figures in major countries
position management
Maintain a small position size due to range assumptions.
Aim for small gains of 20-30 pips.
Tight stop-losses based on recent highs and lows.
checklist
Trade with an awareness of the 1.3380-1.3480 range.
Check the release times of UK and US economic indicators.
Keep positions light in case of sudden news or statements by key figures.
Market summary
On the previous day, the trend changed from market to market, with buying leading in Tokyo, selling in Europe and buying of the dollar in New York.
However, overall, the market remained in a small range around 0.6600 and lacked a sense of direction.
Today, too, there is a lack of significant new material, and the phase is likely to be a search for short-term direction.
Assumed range
Assumed range centred around 0.6580-0.6640.
Likely to be aware of the downside near 0.6580 and the upside near 0.6640.
Large trends are unlikely to emerge and mainly small movements are expected.
tactics
In the short term, range rotation is the basic tactic.
Image of repeated push-buying on the way down and return selling on the way up.
Avoid large positions and aim for small gains.
trigger
An upside is if there is a clear move above 0.6650.
Downside is if a break below 0.6570 is confirmed.
Flows in the European time zone and US interest rate developments in the New York time zone are key.
override condition
Return strategy may be negated above 0.6660.
Conversely, below 0.6560, a push-buy strategy is less likely to work.
Watch for signs of range rejection at the daily close position.
risk event
Release of economic indicators relevant to Australia and China.
US interest rate-related reports and risk of government agency closures.
Sudden material from statements by key national figures
position management
Maintain light positions due to range centres.
Execute interest gains early, around 15-25 pips.
Tight stop-losses based on recent highs and lows
checklist
Respond with an awareness of the 0.6580-0.6640 range.
Check developments in US interest rates and news related to the Chinese economy.
Keep positions light in case of sudden events.
FX Diary.