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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Sep Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | Aug Retail sales [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | Aug Retail sales [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), statement. | |
| important person's statement | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Mr Bailey, statement. | |
| stage absence | - | 🇨🇳 China | - |
News
Japan] The presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was held on 4 April, and Sanae Takaichi was elected.
[France] Prime Minister Lecorgne resigns.
Today's Outlook.
Following Mr Takaichi's victory in the LDP party leadership election, the yen has weakened on expectations of fiscal expansion. The week started with a large window of opportunity, after which the yen continued to sell off predominantly. The first thing to be seen is how far this momentum continues. On the other hand, we are also aware of the possibility of the window being filled, but as there is a gap of over 200 pips, it will be difficult to immediately fill the gap.
The risk of a US government shutdown and weakness in the ISM continue to weigh on the dollar, while rising inflation in the euro area has led to speculation over the ECB's policy stance, with a mix of both factors. The range has been in place for several days and the market is in the process of testing both the upside and downside. A small gap was also seen at the close of the week, and there is a sense of a window-filling move. Overall, the market continues to respond to materials but lacks a clear direction, and the price action continues to be adjustment-oriented.
Weak services and manufacturing PMIs in the UK have led to a cautious outlook for the economy, while in the US, the risk of a government shutdown and weakness in the ISM have restrained the dollar's upside. The market continues to search for a sense of direction amid these mixed materials. The week started with a small window, and the market is aware of the filling of that window. Overall, while reacting to the materials, no clear trend has formed and the market continues to remain calm.
While the RBA's decision not to cut rates is perceived to provide a degree of support, the risk of a government shutdown and weakness in the ISM in the US weigh on the dollar, and materials are mixed. Developments in the Chinese economy and resource prices also continue to be a background factor, but the market has remained in a small range for several days and the market is in a testing phase to see which way it will exit, up or down. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment and wait-and-see attitude.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Hopes for fiscal expansion spread following Mr Takaichi's victory in the LDP party leadership election, and the yen weakened significantly. The yen started to sell off strongly in the Tokyo session, opening a window and rising above the ¥150 level. In the early part of the New York session, the US dollar was bought against the backdrop of US interest rate developments, but ultimately the day ended on a high note, with the market assessing its sustainability going forward.
The euro sold off sharply in European hours due to the instability in French politics, including reports of Prime Minister Lecorne's resignation, but in New York, the dollar was bought against the backdrop of developments in US interest rates, and the pair narrowed its downward trend significantly. The price was able to consolidate lower amid rough price movements.
The price movement remained directionless and limited until the European hours, while the US dollar was bid against the backdrop of US interest rate developments into the New York hours. As a result, the pound dollar tested the upside and ended the day on a higher note.
In Tokyo, the AUD was bought in the Tokyo hours, but selling prevailed in the European hours, while in New York, the AUD rose again as the US dollar was bought against the backdrop of US interest rate developments. The dollar closed higher towards the end of the day, but overall the market remained within a small range, with no major directionality, although the trend changed from one market to another.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
Mr Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election has raised expectations of fiscal expansion, and the yen has weakened.
The week started with a large window of opportunity, and since then the yen has continued to sell off predominantly.
Assumed range
Assumed around 148.50 - 150.50 area.
Although there is a sense of window filling, there is a gap of over 200 pips, and short-term upside testing is predominant.
tactics
Take a push-buy basis and take a step-by-step approach to picking up any downward pressure.
However, follow-up purchases should be made with caution, bearing in mind the possibility of window filling.
trigger
Possibility of accelerated selling of the yen if a clear break above 150.50 is achieved.
A break below 148.50 would increase awareness of window filling.
Political reports in Tokyo hours and US economic indicators in New York hours will be a factor in fluctuations.
override condition
Push-back strategy negated if there is a pronounced move below 148.50 to fill the window
Conversely, if the price settles clearly above 150.50, the return strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
Additional reports and statements by key figures on the Japanese Government's fiscal policy.
Risk of US government shutdown and release of key economic indicators.
Long-term interest rate trends affecting the US-Japan interest rate differential
position management
Keep position size lower than usual and consider window filling risk
Gains are determined in steps of 30-50 pips.
Set stop-losses when support is broken or resistance is breached, and be prepared for unexpected movements.
checklist
Check that the range remains within the 148.50 - 150.50 range.
Watch the progress of window filling.
Inspect the impact of fiscal policy and US indicators on the exchange rate.
Market summary
The risk of a US government shutdown and weakness in the ISM weigh on the dollar, while rising inflation in the euro area creates speculation about ECB policy, and the range remains directionless.
Assumed range
Assuming price movements around 1.1700 - 1.1800
Unable to get out of either up or down, and still struggling for several days.
tactics
In the short term, based on range rotation, push-buy near support and sell back near resistance.
Priority is given to short-term gains until a move out is made.
trigger
The upside is focused on a clear crossing of 1.1800.
The downside is a level below 1.1700.
Eurozone and US economic indicators released in European time are likely to trigger volatility
override condition
A significant break below 1.1700 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if 1.1800 is strongly breached and established, the return strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
Progress on the closure of US government agencies and related media coverage.
Eurozone inflation indicators and statements by ECB officials.
Results of US economic indicators, especially employment-related
position management
Keep position size to half the normal level and be prepared for the reversal risk inherent in a range market.
Take profits in the range of 20 to 40 pips, with early profit-taking in slower price movements.
Stop-losses are set when support and resistance are clearly exceeded, and are flexible enough to avoid being caught in a damascene situation.
checklist
Check that the 1.1700-1.1800 range is maintained
Inspect the impact of US political risks and economic indicators.
Watch the impact of euro-area inflation indicators on ECB policy observations.
Market summary
GBPUSD continues to search for direction as weak UK PMI results remain a concern for the economy, while the risk of a US government shutdown and weakness in the ISM weigh on the dollar.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.3400 to around 1.3500.
We are in the process of exploring a break either up or down, with a window filling at the end of the week.
tactics
Based on range rotation, buy near support and sell near resistance.
Priority is given to short-term price action until a clear breakout is confirmed.
trigger
The focus on the upside is above 1.3500, which is likely to be triggered by indicators in the European time zone and economic releases in the US time zone.
A downside break below 1.3400 is in focus, and an acceleration of window-filling could increase downward pressure.
override condition
If the 1.3500 is clearly breached and established, the return strategy is negated.
Conversely, if it settles well below 1.3400, the push-buy strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
Release of UK economic indicators and statements by BoE officials.
Press coverage of the US government shutdown and progress in negotiations.
Trends in the release of major US economic indicators
position management
Position size should be about half the normal size to prepare for the reversal risk inherent in a range market.
Take profits in 20-40 pips, and consider closing early if price movements are slow.
Set stop-losses when support or resistance is clearly exceeded and be prepared for unexpected price movements.
checklist
Check that the range of 1.3400-1.3500 is maintained
Assessing the progress of the risk of US government agency closures
Inspect the impact of UK economic indicators and BoE statements on the market.
Market summary
The RBA's decision not to cut interest rates is supporting the Australian dollar, while the risk of a government shutdown in the US and weakness in the ISM are weighing on the dollar, and AUDUSD lacks direction amid mixed materials.
Assumed range
Assumed to be in the region of around 0.6580 - 0.6650
The search continues for which way out of the range area that has been in place for several days.
tactics
For the time being, range rotation is the basis, combining push-buying at lower support and return selling at higher resistance.
Until a breakout is confirmed, stick to a short-term price-margin strategy and maintain a profit-taking priority.
trigger
The focus is on whether the upside can be established above 0.6650.
The downside is a warning line below 0.6580, and volatility is likely to intensify with the release of indicators in the European and New York hours.
In particular, news related to resource prices and the Chinese economy could act as triggers.
override condition
If a clear break above 0.6650 is established, the return strategy is negated.
If the price settles well below 0.6580, the push-back strategy will no longer be viable.
risk event
RBA-related statements and release of Australian economic indicators.
Press coverage of the US government shutdown and progress in negotiations.
Fluctuations in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices
position management
Set position sizes conservatively and be prepared for sudden breaks.
Aim for a profit margin of around 20-40 pips, and prioritise early profit-taking in slow price movements.
Set stop-losses when major support or resistance is clearly below, and be flexible to avoid being caught in a damascene situation.
checklist
Check that the range of 0.6580-0.6650 continues to be maintained
Inspect the impact of the RBA's policy stance and statements on the market.
Watch how US and Chinese indicators affect the price movement of the Australian dollar.
AI postcards: today's market
review
The yen weakened on expectations of fiscal expansion after Mr Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election, and the dollar closed higher, breaking the 150 yen level.
summary
The yen continued to sell off as the yen continued to rise, opening a window from Tokyo time.
The upward test of the dollar was also noted in European hours, while in New York, the dollar was bought on the back of developments in US interest rates.
There was some selling towards the close, but the focus remained on the highs and whether they were sustainable or not.
Today's price movements
The yen was sold off in Tokyo hours, opening a window and rising sharply to over 150.00.
The yen continued to sell off in Europe, testing the 150.30 area.
The dollar was bought early in the New York session and was around 150.40, but there was some adjustment towards the close.
Background and materials
Mr Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership election and expectations of fiscal expansion were factors in the yen's sell-off.
US interest rate developments supported dollar buying, with an awareness of the widening US-Japan interest rate gap.
Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown remained a factor weighing on the dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
150.00 was recognised as a psychological milestone, which was breached by a sharp rise in Tokyo hours.
The area around 150.40 was the day's upside resistance, and the market was sluggish on profit-taking towards the close.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend is now in the phase of exploring the possibility of an upper range breakout, with attention focused on establishing a daily range above 150.00
The situation is clearly above the 200-day moving average, confirming a strong support band in the short to medium term
impression
Political events triggered a sell-off in the yen, which boosted the market, but sustainability remains uncertain.
The move after breaking through the milestone was accompanied by a sense of caution among market participants, and the impression was that active follow-up was limited.
trade observations
In the short term, push-backs worked through the window, but adjustments reduced the price range towards the close.
It was a good day for short-term trading, with many trades prioritising profit-taking ahead of major milestones
checklist
Confirmation of the degree of fixation above 150.00.
Watch for US interest rate developments to support dollar buying.
Inspect the impact of reports of the risk of a government shutdown on the dollar.
review
The euro was sold during the European hour due to the turmoil in the French political situation, but the dollar was bought during the New York hour, reducing its decline.
summary
In the European hour, reports of Prime Minister Lecorne's resignation triggered a sell-off in the euro and the market fell sharply.
The Eurodollar rebounded from its lows in the New York hour as the US interest rate trend helped to buy the dollar.
As a result, the big drop was limited and the pair returned to around 1.1710 by the close.
Today's price movements
The decline started from around 1.1740 and pushed lower to around 1.1660 over the European hour.
The dollar was then bought in the New York time and the eurodollar rebounded to close around 1.1710.
Rough price movements in the short term and a lack of direction continued
Background and materials
Instability in French politics was perceived as a political risk in Europe, triggering euro selling.
Inflation-related comments by ECB officials were a supportive factor, but overall market sentiment was limited.
In the US, the risk of a government shutdown remains, while US interest rate trends supported dollar buying.
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.1740 was identified as the day's upside resistance and could not be breached during European hours.
Around 1.1660 was the day's downside support and the starting point for a rebound over the New York hours.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, the pair continued to attack around 1.1700 and consolidate lower prices
A warning level below 1.1650 is a warning level, while 1.1800 is considered as a medium-term resistance zone.
impression
Political uncertainty in Europe put downward pressure on the euro, but this was offset by US interest rate factors.
As a result, there is no major direction in the rough movement and the market is waiting for material.
trade observations
Return selling worked on the downside in the European hour, but a rebound in the New York hour led to significant profit-taking by short-term sources.
The impression is that positional adjustments prevailed at the end of the day, with many moves avoiding carry-over.
checklist
Check if price movements stabilise around 1.1700
Watch the impact of developments in French politics on the euro.
Inspect how US interest rate trends and political risks affect the dollar.
review
European hours were directionless, but the pound dollar closed higher as dollar buying strengthened in the New York hours.
summary
Price volatility was limited from Tokyo to Europe due to material difficulties.
In the New York time, the pound was pushed down as the US dollar was bought against the backdrop of US interest rate developments.
The final trading session ended on a high note, with no movement out of the short-term range.
Today's price movements
The price remained in the vicinity of 1.3430-1.3450, with no major movements, and repeated small ups and downs in each time zone.
After the early New York session, the dollar was supported by dollar buying and rose to the 1.3480 level, where it remained until the close.
The daily range was narrow and no major directional changes were made.
Background and materials
UK construction PMI and composite PMI weakened, curbing growth expectations.
In the US, the risk of a government shutdown remained, while rising interest rates provided support for dollar buying.
No clear trend was formed due to a mixture of political factors and economic indicators.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.3430 acted as support for the day and supported lower prices.
1.3480 became an upside resistance and was tested multiple times before the close, but could not break through.
Range rotation was an effective phase in short-term trading.
Technical note (mid-term).
The area around 1.3400 was recognised as medium-term support, limiting downside potential.
The area around 1.3500 is still perceived by the market as strong resistance
The situation is still under attack at the upper and lower limits of the medium-term range
impression
US interest rate factors were a notable buyer of the dollar, while economic indicators on the pound side showed weakness.
Overall, however, prices remained limited and market participants remained in search of a larger sense of direction.
trade observations
Short-term trade focused on range strategies that utilised narrow price ranges.
The European hour was quieter and trading was more effective in line with the movement in the NY hour.
There was a marked preference for profit-taking and a lot of avoidance of carry-overs.
checklist
Check that the range between 1.3430 and 1.3480 is maintained
Watch for US interest rate trends to continue to support dollar buying.
Inspect how weakness in UK economic indicators will affect the pound.
review
Tokyo time was led by buying, but European time was dominated by selling, and in New York time the dollar bounced back to close higher.
summary
No major material was seen on the Australian side and the market was mainly driven by external factors.
Selling was predominant in the European hours and the market tested the downside, but was supported by dollar buying in the New York hours.
Ultimately, the range remained within a range with no major directional changes, although the highs remained in the range
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session was dominated by buying, rising to around 0.6610.
The market was pushed back to around 0.6600 in the European hour and selling increased.
In New York, the dollar was bought in response to the US interest rate trend and rebounded to around 0.6620.
Background and materials
A day of material shortages with no new economic indicators released from Australia.
In the US, the risk of a government shutdown and weak economic indicators remained a concern.
Resource prices and economic developments in China were noted as factors supporting market sentiment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
0.6600 acted as support and underpinned the downside
The 0.6620 area was the day's upside resistance and did not break
A narrow but clear attack and defence of support and resistance emerged
Technical note (mid-term).
The range between 0.6580 and 0.6650 continues, making it difficult to find direction in the medium term.
Moving averages show a sideways trend and no clear trend can be identified.
In the medium term, the area above 0.6700 remains a strong resistance zone.
impression
The Australian dollar lacked unique material and was limited to swings in the US factor.
Market participants were waiting for major events, with limited major trading.
There was a noticeable trend to prioritise gains in short-term price movements.
trade observations
Push-buying was effective in the Tokyo time, but profit-taking proceeded with a sell-off in the European time.
The rebound in New York was mainly due to short-term muscle buy-backs, with limited sustainability.
Overall, the day was dominated by short-term trading with an awareness of range rotation.
checklist
Check whether support for 0.6600 remains in force
Watch for US interest rate trends to continue to support dollar buying.
Inspect new economic indicators from Australia and China for their impact on the market.
FX Diary.