Market summary

Partial closure of US government agencies postpones jobs report, but ISM is scheduled and cues are limited

No novelty in BOJ Governor's remarks, but disappointing yen sell-off in mind.

The previous day failed to break lower and signs of double-bottom formation on the 4-hourly timeframe, indicating a firmness to the downside.

Assumed range

Assumed to be centred around 147.20-148.70.

Upside is a likely return zone around 148.50-148.70.

The downside is around 147.20-147.30 to see if there is a push.

tactics

Combined range rotation with a focus on push-buying

Pick up in instalments near the lower limit and take a partial profit when approaching the upper limit.

When accelerating upwards, follow-up is small and limited to the short term.

trigger

Watch out for buying momentum to strengthen on a break above 148.30.

Short-term bullish scenario likely to recede and tilt towards a return to selling advantage at a break below 147.20.

Watch out for changes in US Treasury yields and around the time of the ISM announcement in NY.

override condition

Break expectations dampened if the pair continues to stay in the middle of 147.70-148.20.

Assumption withdrawn if the volume is clearly below the double-bottom right shoulder.

Switch to wait-and-see if volume declines and price contraction progresses

risk event

Headlines on US interim budget negotiations and the extension of the government shutdown

Sharp change in US Treasury yields and a risk-off shift in the stock market.

Additional statements by BOJ officials and reports referring to the exchange rate.

position management

Position sizes capped at half the normal size and further reduced before events

Interest gains are executed in steps of 20 to 30 pips.

Stop-losses are set at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range.

checklist

Check successively for a break above 148.30 or below 147.20

ISM results and US interest rates confirm directional match

Check for BOJ-related headlines and statements by key figures

Market summary

US government shutdown delays jobs report, but ISM on schedule and focus on materials

The previous day was a coma with long up and down whiskers, with firmness on the downside and heaviness on the upside at the same time.

The price continues to hover in the low 1.17s amid a lack of direction.

Assumed range

Assuming traffic in the vicinity of 1.1680-1.1780.

The downside is likely to be around 1.1680 as support.

Strong resistance on the upside around 1.1780-1.1800.

tactics

Combination of push-buying and return selling based on range rotation.

In the short term, buy near 1.1700 and sell near 1.1780.

When a break occurs, follow-up should be small and short-term only.

trigger

Short-term upward trend is likely to strengthen with a break above 1.1800

A downward test below 1.1680 is likely to be conscious

ISM results scheduled for NY hour may influence direction

override condition

Suspend the scenario if the market continues to stagnate at 1.1720-1.1760 and lacks direction.

Refrain from making trend decisions when there is a series of coma legs with long up and down beards.

Range contraction with declining volume sets back break expectations

risk event

US government shutdown-related reports and progress in interim budget talks.

US economic indicators, including ISM announcements, and statements by key figures.

Price-related data and comments from ECB officials in the European area.

position management

Sizes start at half the normal size and reduce further before the event.

Profit-taking is executed in installments of 20-30 pips.

Stop-losses are set at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range.

checklist

Ensure that the 1.1680-1.1780 range is maintained.

To check the trend in US interest rates after the ISM announcement.

Check for reactions to ECB-related comments and indicators.

Market summary

A phase where persistence on the downside and heaviness on the upside coexist in a small entity with long whiskers above and below.

Partial closure of US government agencies postpones jobs report, but ISM on schedule and high profile

The BoE Governor is also scheduled to speak today, and speculation over policy stance is likely to be a concern.

Assumed range

Assumed to come and go around 1.3420-1.3520

Confirmation of a downside reaction around 1.3420.

Note that the upside is likely to stagnate around 1.3520.

tactics

Based on range rotation, consider pushing at the lower end and selling back at the upper end.

Lighten open interest before and after events and take profits when the price range is reduced.

When a break occurs, follow in small increments and withdraw quickly when the break stalls.

trigger

Watch out for buy-dominant flows above 1.3530.

Increased preparedness for a downside retest at below 1.3400.

Direction confirmed by BOE Governor's statement in the European hour and ISM in the New York hour.

override condition

Tactical effectiveness reduced if the mullet shrinks due to continued stagnation in the middle of 1.3460-1.3490.

Formation of a series of upper beards that stalls the upward movement.

Signal not established due to low volume and lack of response after the index.

risk event

Press coverage of US interim budget negotiations and the extension of the government shutdown.

Surprises from BOE key figures and UK macro indicators.

Risk-off due to sudden changes in US interest rates and stock markets

position management

Size starts at half the normal size and reduces further just before the event.

Interest rate targets are executed in steps of 20-30 pips.

Stop-losses are set at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range

checklist

Sequentially check whether the 1.3420-1.3520 range is maintained or broken

Confirmation of the direction of US and UK interest rates after the BoE Governor's statement and the ISM.

Check continuity of key personnel headlines and flows

Market summary

The previous day was led by Australian dollar selling against a backdrop of volatile US interest rates and resource prices, but a return was seen on the downside

Assumed range

Assumed range centred around 0.6460-0.6540.

The upside is likely to be contained around 0.6525-0.6540, while the downside is likely to be supported around 0.6460.

tactics

A form of taking small steps while switching between buying on the push side and selling on the return side based on a range rotation is effective.

Aim to buy near the lower limit and consider partial gains or selling back when approaching the upper limit

When a break occurs, take a cautious, small-lot approach to following the break.

trigger

Conscious of the possibility of a swing towards a buy-dominant direction if 0.6545 is exceeded.

A break below 0.6455 would increase caution about a downside retest.

The ISM announcement in the NY hour could trigger a change in direction.

override condition

Range assumptions are more likely to break down if the cage remains within 0.6480-0.6520.

The appearance of a series of legs with long up and down whiskers makes directional judgement unstable.

Consider changing tactics if volume declines and range contraction continue.

risk event

Reports of progress in US government interim budget talks and extension of the shutdown.

Fluctuations in ISM releases and US interest rate-related indicators

Sharp fluctuations in Australian trade indicators and resource prices.

position management

Position size is set at half the normal amount to ensure resistance to unforeseen fluctuations

The profit target is 20-30 pips for staged execution.

Stop-losses are carefully set at a level 10-15 pips outside the range plus

checklist

Ensure that the range of 0.6460-0.6540 is maintained.

Watch the ISM results together with the direction of US interest rates.

To check reactions to changes in Australian indices, resource prices and interest rate differentials.

review

In Tokyo hours, the yen sold off in response to the Bank of Japan Governor's comments, but there was little movement from European hours onwards, and in New York, the dollar sold off due to weakness in the ISM, but the directionality of the market was limited.

summary

The day's price movements were responsive to the material but did not lead to a major trend, and the overall trend remained within a range.

Market participants were holding back on new positions ahead of the weekend, while assessing the impact of the US indicators.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo hours, the yen sold off from around 147.80, but the rally was unsustainable and stalled.

In the New York hours, the ISM indicator was weak and pushed lower to around 147.30, but the pair subsequently bounced back.

Background and materials

The Bank of Japan Governor's comments were perceived as a factor in selling the yen, but there was no significant change in policy stance and it lacked staying power.

The US ISM results came in below expectations, which was a temporary selling factor for the dollar.

Concerns about the risk of a US government shutdown also affected market sentiment and was a factor limiting the dollar's upside.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around 147.80 was identified as an upside level.

The area around 147.30 acted as support to the downside, confirming the range formation in the short term.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily range remains at 147.00-148.00.

The market continues to hold in line with moving averages and there is no clear medium-term trend.

impression

Although there were some temporary reactions to events, no strong directional movement was generated.

There were several materials, but the impression is that none of them were able to form a continuous trend.

trade observations

In the short term, trading in response to material was effective, but the environment was difficult to follow and extend.

It was a day when the focus was more likely to be on reverse and small price action within a range.

checklist

Confirmation of limited and unsustainable yen selling after BOJ governor's remarks.

Conscious that the weakness in the US ISM was only a temporary dollar selling point

Confirmation that the range between 147.30 and 147.80 is the short-term guide.

review

In the European hour, the euro was bought in response to the Eurozone PMI results, and in the New York hour, the US dollar was sold due to weakness in the US ISM, but overall the direction was not set.

summary

Some eurozone economic indicators fell short of expectations, but the euro was supported by a strong services sector, which underpinned the euro.

The dollar was temporarily sold off in response to the US index results, but the market did not form a clear trend and remained in a range.

Today's price movements

The euro was bought around the 1.1700 level in European hours, rising to around 1.1730.

The dollar was temporarily sold off during the New York session on the back of weakness in the ISM and the price rose to around 1.1750 but failed to sustain and stalled.

Background and materials

Eurozone PMIs were lower than expected, but the resilience of the services sector was perceived and temporarily induced euro buying.

Weak US ISM results prompted dollar selling, but the overall market trend remained cautious due to the risk of a government shutdown

Uncertainty over the Fed's policy operations was also a concern, with limited dollar movement.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around 1.1700 acted as a downside support and triggered a rebound

The area around 1.1750 was perceived as an upside resistance and was not broken through.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily range of 1.1700-1.1800 remains in awareness.

In the medium term, the moving averages are moving sideways and no clear trend has formed

impression

Although there were some reactions to the material, overall, the market remained directionless and in a holding pattern.

Market participants focused on economic indicators in Europe and the US, but were reluctant to make aggressive moves due to weekend factors.

trade observations

Trading in line with indicators was effective in the short term, but the price range to follow was limited.

The environment tended to be mainly contrarian and short-term gains based on the assumption of a range.

checklist

Eurozone PMI falls short of expectations but confirms resilience in the services sector

Weakness in the US ISM was a selling point for the dollar, but of limited sustainability

The price movement between 1.1700 and 1.1750 was considered as the range of the day.

review

Buying was ahead in the European hour, but stalled when the UK PMI fell short of expectations, and the US dollar was sold in the New York hour due to weakness in the US ISM, but remained in a range.

summary

The day's price movements responded to European and US indicators, but no sustainable trend was formed

The price movements remained in a range and market participants were less aggressive ahead of the weekend.

Today's price movements

European hours saw a rise to around 1.3480, but the PMI was sluggish on the downside.

Weakness in the ISM during the New York session led to dollar selling to around 1.3430 at one point, but it has since bounced back.

Background and materials

UK PMI below expectations, with concerns over slowing economic momentum restricting the pound's upside.

Weakness in the US ISM was a factor in the dollar sell-off, but the market was also aware of the risk of a government shutdown and Fed policy uncertainty, which limited movement.

Overall, the environment was difficult to create a sense of direction, with materials cancelling each other out.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The 1.3425-1.3430 area was perceived as support to the downside and was a factor in the downside.

The area around 1.3480 acted as an upside resistance and a short-term limit to the return

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily range of 1.3400-1.3500 continues, suggesting a directionless holding.

Moving averages are moving sideways and no clear trend signals have been identified.

impression

There were some temporary reactions to European and US indicators, but overall the market remained quiet and range-bound.

The impression was that the market was strongly waiting for a new trigger and the mood was one of restraint.

trade observations

In the short term, small trades using indicators were effective, but it was difficult to follow the price range.

It can be said to be a day when trading with a focus on contrarianism and short-term gains was suitable.

checklist

Confirmation that the downbeat UK PMI has restrained the upward movement of the pound.

Recognition that the dollar sell-off due to US ISM weakness was temporary and over

Sort out that the range between 1.3430 and 1.3480 was the main price level of the day.

review

The Australian side lacked material and remained slightly lower throughout the day, while in New York, weakness in the US ISM led to a temporary dollar sell-off, but the directionality was limited.

summary

From Tokyo to Europe, the market remained calm around 0.6600 with no significant movements.

A weaker ISM in the New York hour sold off the dollar and lifted the Australian dollar, but the momentum did not last long.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours remained in a narrow range around 0.6600

The ISM rallied to around 0.6615 in the NY hour on weakness in the ISM, but then fell back and converged again around 0.6600.

Background and materials

There was no specific new material on the Australian side and limited factors to give direction to the market.

On the US side, weakness in the ISM triggered dollar selling, but the flow did not continue due to lingering uncertainties, including the risk of a government shutdown.

There was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market as a whole, and price movements were limited.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The area around 0.6585 acted as a downside support and a guide to a short-term rebound.

The area around 0.6615 was perceived as an upside resistance and was not broken through.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily range remains within the 0.6580-0.6630 range.

Moving averages are flat and no clear trend has been identified in the medium term

impression

A lack of material on the Australian side and weak indicators on the US side intermingled, restricting movement in one direction.

There were some short-term reactions in the market, but the impression remained of a strong adjustment ahead of the weekend.

trade observations

In the short term, it was possible to trade in line with the dollar sell-off following the ISM, but it was difficult to follow.

Overall, it was a day when a range strategy with a focus on contrarianism and small gains was effective.

checklist

There was no significant new material on the Australian side and the market lacked direction.

US ISM weakness triggered but did not sustain temporary dollar selling

The range of 0.6580-0.6630 was identified as the main trading range for the day