Market summary

The previous day, the dollar was sold more strongly during the European hour, but the situation was reduced by buying back at the end of the New York session.

The US government shutdown has halted the release of key indicators and the lack of material has led to an adjustment in price movements.

The market is hovering around the ¥147 level, keeping a close eye on the US-Japan interest rate differential and the outcome of the interim budget negotiations.

Assumed range

A small range around 147.20-148.20 is expected.

Directionality is seen as limited, with US long-term interest rates showing signs of settling.

On the upside, weight will be felt around 148.20, while on the downside, support should be seen around 147.20.

tactics

For the time being, the tactic of range rotation is chosen as there is a lack of clear material.

Consider a return sale near the upper limit and a small push to buy near the lower limit.

It is advisable to keep positions light in case of sudden breaks.

trigger

A move above 148.30 would alert the market to the possibility of stronger buying in the short term.

Selling pressure is likely to prevail on a clear break below 147.00.

Watch out for situations where interest rate developments and changes in US Treasury yields in the European hour may trigger a change.

override condition

If the pair continues to stay within the 147.50-148.00 range, the tactic is disabled as it is difficult to find direction.

Assumptions are also broken in the event of large fluctuations due to sudden key figures' statements or interventionist observations.

Switch to a wait-and-see approach once a sudden change is observed that prevents the range from holding.

risk event

Progress in the US government's interim budget negotiations and reports of a prolonged shutdown.

Sharp fluctuations in US Treasury yields and a chain of risk-off in the stock market.

Changes in the strength of interest rate hike expectations as a result of statements by key Bank of Japan officials.

position management

Keep the position size to half the normal size and keep short-term rotation in mind.

Set the profit target at around 20-30 pips and give priority to early profit-taking.

Stop-losses should be placed at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range.

checklist

Does the range between 147.20 and 148.20 remain intact?

Are there any changes in long-term US interest rates or bond market movements?

Have reports of interim budget negotiations affected market sentiment?

Market summary

The day before, the market was range-bound, swinging up and down against the backdrop of US interest rate developments and euro-zone inflation indicators.

Partial closure of US government agencies has prevented the release of key economic indicators, leaving the market short of clues

The rate has remained in the low 1.17s while the focus has been on accelerating inflation in the euro area and the ECB's stance.

Assumed range

Assume a range around 1.1680-1.1780.

The downside is likely to be supported around 1.1680 and the upside around 1.1780.

Likely to continue to move in and out of the range amid lack of clear material.

tactics

For the time being, the basic policy is to rotate in a range, checking levels above and below and taking small steps.

Consider pushing the price near the lower limit and selling back near the upper limit.

Keep positions small and be prepared for sudden breaks.

trigger

Beware of short-term buying acceleration on a clear break above 1.1800.

Assume that selling pressure could increase if the pair breaks below 1.1660.

Movements in economic indicators and US Treasury yields are likely to trigger changes in European time

override condition

If the range between 1.1680 and 1.1780 continues to hold, the effectiveness of the tactic will diminish.

Assumptions are also invalidated in the event of sudden fluctuations due to unexpected key figures' statements or intervention observations.

If price movements converge without a clear sense of direction in the short-term leg, wait and see.

risk event

Reports of progress in talks over the US government's interim budget and the prolonged shutdown.

Revised Eurozone consumer prices and statements by ECB officials.

News on US employment-related statistics and interest rate developments.

position management

Position size should be half the normal size to limit risk.

Aim for a profit margin of 20-30 pips and prioritise secure earnings.

Stop-losses are set at a level 10-15 pips outside the range plus

checklist

Is the 1.1680-1.1780 range holding?

Are there any changes in US interest rate trends or government bond yields?

Are there any ECB officials' statements or Eurozone inflation-related news?

Market summary

The previous day, no major indicators were released due to the US government shutdown, which restrained the dollar's upside.

On the UK side, BoE members have been positive about cutting interest rates, and there is mixed speculation over the policy stance.

The index rose slightly, oscillating up and down, and remained in the low 1.34s.

Assumed range

Assume a range around 1.3420-1.3520.

The focus will be on whether the downside is supported by the 1.3420 area.

The upside is likely to be aware of resistance around 1.3520.

tactics

In the short term, trading is based on range rotation, with a view to finding the right balance between up and down.

Consider buying on the downside near the lower limit and selling on the upside near the upper limit.

Maintain light positions due to lack of new material

trigger

Assume a stronger buying trend above 1.3530.

A break below 1.3400 could tilt towards a sell-off.

Movements in UK economic indicators and US Treasury yields are likely to be triggered in the European hour.

override condition

Tactics are unlikely to be established if the market remains within the 1.3420 - 1.3520 range throughout the day.

Review tactics in the event of sudden changes in sudden news, such as statements by key BOE officials.

If the direction is not clear in the short term and the volume is thin, take a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

Reports on negotiations over the US government's interim budget and the prolonged shutdown.

UK economic indicators and additional statements by BOE members.

Changes in US employment-related indicators and interest rate trends.

position management

Position size should be half the normal size to limit risk.

Set the profit margin at 20-30 pips and build up profits in small increments.

Stop-losses are placed at a level 10-15 pips outside the range plus

checklist

Does the range between 1.3420 and 1.3520 hold?

No significant changes in US interest rates or government bond yields

Do you check for the presence of statements from BoE key figures and news related to the UK economy?

Market summary

The previous day swung up and down, but the final daily line was a crosshair with no substance.

Lack of material for the dollar with no major economic indicators released due to the partial closure of US government agencies

On the Australian side, a narrowing of the trade surplus has been observed, and fluctuations in resource prices have also affected the market price.

Assumed range

Assume a small range centred around 0.6460-0.6540

Lower prices are likely to confirm support around 0.6460, while higher prices are likely to be weighed down around 0.6540.

Likely to continue to move in and out of the range amid material difficulties

tactics

For the time being, range rotation is the basis for short-term responses at the upper and lower levels.

Consider buying at the lower limit and selling back at the upper limit

Keep positions light and prioritise preparedness for sudden breaks.

trigger

Assume that a break above 0.6560 could strengthen short-term buying momentum.

Selling is likely to prevail on a break below 0.6440.

Australian economic indicators in Asian time and interest rate developments in Europe and the US could be a trigger.

override condition

If the range continues to fall within the 0.6460-0.6540 range, the clear tactical effect diminishes.

Assumptions are broken if there is a sudden change in the comments of key figures in Australia or the US.

Prioritise a wait-and-see approach once in a phase where there is a lack of direction and volume declines on a short-term basis.

risk event

Australian trade balance and statements from RBA officials.

Discussions over the US government's interim budget and concerns about a prolonged shutdown.

US employment-related statistics and bond market trends.

position management

Limit risk by keeping position size to half the normal level.

Aim for a profit margin of 20-30 pips and be aware of the need to settle earnings early.

Stop-losses are placed at a level 10-15 pips outside the range to prepare for unforeseen fluctuations.

checklist

Is the range of 0.6460-0.6540 maintained?

Are there any new developments in Australian economic indicators or resource prices?

Any change in the political situation in the US or interest rate-related news

review

The dollar was sold off and pushed lower in the European hour, but was bought back in the New York hour, reducing the downward trend.

summary

Partial closure of US government agencies led to a lack of market cues as index releases were postponed.

A mixed day of dollar selling and buying back, with limited direction.

The daily chart showed a small substance and a downward whisker, indicating an adjustmental movement.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours remained around 147.50 and there was no significant movement.

The dollar fell to around 147.20 in European hours, with dollar sales prevailing.

The pair bought back in the New York hours and returned to around 147.80.

Background and materials

Difficulties in the US government's interim budget talks have raised fears of a prolonged shutdown.

No major economic indicators were released and investors focused on interest rate trends and key figures' statements.

New material was limited, although there was awareness of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.

Technical memorandum (short term)

On the hourly time frame, the range between 147.20 and 147.80 was conscious and swung up and down.

The RSI was neutral at around 50, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.

Short-term moving averages were flat and no clear trend was identified.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily showed the presence of a push with a small entity and a lower whisker.

Bollinger bands continue to hover around the 20-day moving average and are contracting

In the medium term, the 147.00-148.50 price range is considered as the main range.

impression

Lack of key materials led to a wait-and-see attitude in the market and limited price movements.

Feels a need to be careful of sudden moves in the face of lingering policy-related uncertainties

A range-conscious response seems appropriate in situations where it is difficult to get a sense of direction

trade observations

For short-term traders, the market was aiming for a traffic between 147.20 and 147.80.

The tactic of accumulating small price gaps rather than expecting a breakout matched

Aggressive positions were difficult to take due to a wait-and-see attitude for new material.

checklist

Is the range between 147.20 and 147.80 still holding?

Is there any progress in the US government's interim budget negotiations or reports of a prolonged shutdown?

Has there been any change in the US-Japan interest rate differential or US Treasury yields?

review

In the European hour, the euro was bid ahead, but after entering New York, the dollar was bid lower, but by the end of the day, the dollar was bought back and the decline was narrowed.

summary

Partial closure of US government agencies meant that no major indicators were released and markets were short of material.

Awareness of Eurozone inflation indicators and ECB stance but lacked decisiveness

As a result, the market was directionless and settled in the low 1.17s.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time was a wait-and-see attitude with small movements around 1.1730.

The euro was bought in European hours, temporarily rising to around 1.1770.

In the New York session, the dollar was bid up and tested the 1.1700 level, but returned to the 1.1720 level towards the end of the session.

Background and materials

With no indicators released due to the US government shutdown, investors focused on interest rates and key figures' statements.

Eurozone inflation rises to the low 2% range, providing an insight into the ECB's stance

In the US, the trend in US dollar interest rates affected the market as the prospect of interest rate cuts smouldered.

Technical memorandum (short term)

On the hourly timeframe, there were repeated ups and downs in the 1.1700-1.1780 range.

The RSI was neutral at around 50 and short-term momentum was limited.

Short-term moving averages were sideways, suggesting a rotation within the range.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily shape was directionless with small entities and up and down whiskers.

The 20-day moving average remained almost flat and trendless

1.1680 - 1.1780 as the main range is the line of medium-term awareness.

impression

With a lack of materials, the exchange rate remained within a range of amplitudes and showed no significant direction.

The absence of policy-related and economic indicators gives the impression that market participants were less active.

Volatility is considered to have been limited and trading was mainly range-bound.

trade observations

Push-backs around 1.1700 and returns around 1.1780 were more likely to be considered.

Short-term trading-oriented tactics were suitable due to a lack of clear material.

The situation was such that new material was awaited to determine the medium- and long-term direction.

checklist

Confirmation that the range of 1.1700-1.1780 is maintained.

Focus on ECB key figures and Eurozone indicators.

To check the reaction of the dollar to reports of US interest rates and tentative budget negotiations.

review

In the European hour, the pound was bid ahead, but after entering New York, the dollar was bid lower, but by the end of the day, the pound was bought back and the decline was narrowed.

summary

Markets lacked clues as major indicators were missed due to the partial closure of US government agencies.

The UK side was aware of the BoE's interest rate cuts and speculation over monetary policy

Overall, the market swung up and down amid material difficulties, but directionality was limited.

Today's price movements

The Tokyo session ended with small movements around 1.3470.

The pound temporarily gained ground in the European hours, rising to around 1.3520, with the pound temporarily in favour of the buyers.

In the New York time, the dollar was more bidish and tested the 1.3440 level, but returned to the 1.3480 level by the end of the day.

Background and materials

Interest rate headlines attracted attention as scheduled economic indicators were not released due to the US government shutdown.

On the UK side, BoE members' statements made us aware of their positive attitude towards interest rate cuts.

Lack of risk events kept market participants from moving.

Technical memorandum (short term)

On the hourly timeframe, the range between 1.3440 and 1.3520 was conscious and the ups and downs continued to come and go.

The RSI remained around 50 and there was no clear sign of overheating.

Short-term moving averages were flat, indicating a trendless situation

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily shape showed hesitation with small substance and up and down whiskers.

The 20-day moving average was flat and medium-term direction was scarce.

The price range of 1.3400-1.3550 was identified as the main range.

impression

Limited new material in both the US and the UK has reduced the aggressiveness of market participants.

There were some reactions to interest rate developments and key figures' statements, but they were not sustained.

The impression is that the ground has continued to go through a series of short-term, adjustment-like comings and goings.

trade observations

Short-term traders were aware of a push at 1.3440 and a return at 1.3520.

Lack of material to take a medium- to long-term position made it difficult to make a decision.

Small rotations within the range were a realistic tactic.

checklist

Does the range between 1.3440 and 1.3520 continue to be maintained?

Keep an eye on BoE member statements and UK indicators.

Check the impact of US interim budget negotiations and US interest rate trends.

review

The Australian dollar was bought in the early part of Europe, but fell in the second half of Europe as the dollar became more expensive, and the decline was reduced by buying back towards the end of the New York session.

summary

A day of material shortages as major indicators were put on hold due to the partial closure of US government agencies

Limited upside due to awareness of Australia's shrinking trade balance and resource price swings.

Price movements were mainly back and forth in a range, with limited sense of direction.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time continued to move slightly around 0.6500

The rate was bought in early Europe and rose to around 0.6530.

After the second half of the European session, the dollar was bought more strongly, falling to around 0.6470 and returning to the 0.6500 level in the second half of the New York session.

Background and materials

US interest rate developments and reports on the interim budget were headline market factors.

In Australia, a narrowing trade surplus was reported, raising awareness of the slowdown in external demand.

Intraday fluctuations in resource prices affected short-term flows in the Australian dollar.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The range between 0.6460 and 0.6540 was noticed and reversals were noticeable above and below the 0.6460-0.6540 range.

The RSI remained neutral at around 50 and momentum was scarce.

Short-term moving averages were flat, indicating a range return.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily chart showed a wait-and-see mood with a small-substance crosshair-like pattern.

Bollinger bands contracted slightly as they remained near the 20-day moving average

0.6440 and 0.6560 were identified as near-term divergence levels.

impression

Only sensitivity to interest rates and headlines amid material difficulties was high for the day.

Flows reacting to range reversal points rather than breaks were predominant.

Volume was limited and the impression was that the follow-up would only be short-lived.

trade observations

The push-buy rotation worked when the lower limit was approached and the return rotation worked when the upper limit was approached.

The operation was suitable for prioritising small gains, with breakthrough expectations suppressed.

It was safe to assume half the normal size and be prepared for sudden changes.

checklist

Ensure that the range of 0.6460-0.6540 is maintained.

To confirm the directional match between US interest rate headlines and resource prices.

Check for changes in the schedule of Australian indicators and key figures' statements.