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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | β β | Jul-Sep BOJ Tankan, quarterly large manufacturing sector |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π―π΅ Japan | β | Jul-Sep BOJ Tankan, quarterly outlook for large manufacturing companies |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π―π΅ Japan | β | Jul-Sep BOJ Tankan, Quarterly Large Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions, BOJ Tankan, Quarterly Large Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions, BOJ Tankan, Quarterly Large Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π―π΅ Japan | β | Jul-Sep BOJ Tankan, quarterly outlook for large non-manufacturing firms |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π―π΅ Japan | β | Jul-Sep BOJ Tankan, quarterly capital investment by all industries, large enterprises [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π«π· France | β | Sep Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π©πͺ Germany | β | Sep Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β | Sep Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| π¬π§ United Kingdom | β | Sep Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β β | Sep Consumer price index (HICP, preliminary) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πͺπΊ Europe | β β | Sep Consumer price index (HICP core index, preliminary) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β β | September ADP employment figures [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β | Sep Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| πΊπΈ America | β β | Sept ISM Manufacturing Index. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| stage absence | - | π¨π³ China | - |
News
Partial closure of US government agencies Also halts the release of employment statistics scheduled for 3 October.
Today's Outlook.
The US dollar has been sold against the backdrop of the partial government shutdown in the US, and the USDJPY has also softened somewhat. It remains to be seen how far this momentum will continue. Further caution is required as important economic indicators are scheduled for today and the market swing could widen depending on the results.
The dollar was sold against the backdrop of the partial government shutdown in the US, and EURUSD was also slightly softer. The previous day ended in a range with little sense of direction. Today, important economic indicators are due, and depending on the results, this could be the turning point between a stronger dollar selling trend or maintaining the range, and attention should continue to be paid to the price swings.
The dollar was sold against the backdrop of the partial government shutdown in the US, and GBPUSD was also slightly softer. The market closed the previous day in a directionless range. Important US economic indicators are scheduled for today, and depending on the results, it will be a phase of carefully assessing the market reaction to see whether the range will hold or widen.
The previous day, the Australian dollar was bid up after the Reserve Bank of Australia took a hawkish stance on inflationary pressures. In the US, the dollar was sold against the backdrop of a partial government shutdown. However, important US economic indicators are due to be released today, and depending on the results, the dollar's trend could change again, so more attention should be paid to the swing in price movements.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Dollar selling prevailed in Tokyo amid the ongoing partial government shutdown in the US. The US dollar was further sold off in the early hours of the New York session on the back of weaker-than-expected ADP National Employment Report and weak economic indicators. However, a slightly better-than-expected ISM eased the excessive pessimism, and the market narrowed its decline towards the close.
Dollar selling was led in Tokyo hours as the partial government shutdown continued in the US. In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell below 50 again, leading to euro selling, while in early New York, ADP fell short of expectations and dollar selling strengthened, lifting EURUSD. On the other hand, a slight uptick in the ISM led to dollar buying back and the gains were reduced. In general, the market was shaken by the indicators and remained in a range throughout the day.
Dollar selling was ahead in Tokyo hours as the partial government shutdown continued in the US. In Europe, the UK manufacturing PMI fell below 50 and the Pound was on the upside, while in early New York, the ADP fell short of expectations and the Dollar was sold off, but a slight uptick in the ISM led to a Dollar buy-back and a narrowing of the upside.
In Tokyo, the AUDUSD was sold off in the AUDUSD, but recovered when the partial government shutdown in the US continued and the dollar became more conscious of the dollar's weakness Early in New York, the ADP National Employment Report came in below expectations, weakening the dollar and testing the AUDUSD to the upside. However, a slight uptick in the ISM Manufacturing Index led to a dollar buy-back and a narrowing of the gains. In general, the day's price movements seemed to converge into a range, as the market was often swayed by the strength and weakness of materials.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| price fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| price fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The US dollar is being sold against the backdrop of the US government shutdown, and USDJPY is in a soft phase in the low 147 yen range.
The market is searching for a sense of direction amidst uncertainty, mixed feelings of US interest rate dominance and the prospect of a BoJ interest rate hike.
Important economic indicators are due today, and volatility could increase depending on the results.
Assumed range
The downside is around 147.20 and the upside is around 148.50.
Until the release of the indicators, the range is likely to remain mainly within the range.
Market participants are highly cautious and should be wary of sudden price movements.
tactics
For the time being, range rotation is the basis for a cautious approach until there is a clear sense of direction.
Attempt to push the price down on approaching lower prices, but prioritise early gains.
There remains an awareness of a return to the upside test, with a flexible response in both directions.
trigger
A break above 148.50 to watch out for short-term upside.
A clear break below 147.20 could tilt the yen in favour of the yen.
US economic indicators due to be released tonight are expected to be a major turning point.
override condition
If there is a significant deviation from the expected range, the strategy will be reverted to a blank sheet of paper.
Initial assumptions are also invalid in the event of sudden changes due to sudden fundamental factors.
Disturbances in price movements due to reduced market liquidity can also be a factor clouding judgement.
risk event
US key economic indicators released.
Prolonged US Congressional budget talks and government shutdowns.
Statements by BOJ members and changes in their policy stance.
position management
Entry sizes should be kept to a more restrained level than normal.
Profit taking should be done in small increments of 20-30 pips.
Losses are placed outside the expected range to limit risk.
checklist
Watch for a downside move around 147.20.
Be aware of upside resistance around 148.50.
Check the risk of short-term volatility due to the results of US economic indicators.
Market summary
EURUSD is slightly softer as the dollar is being sold against the backdrop of the US government shutdown.
The previous day lacked a sense of direction and ended in a range around the low to mid 1.17s.
Markets are adopting a wait-and-see attitude while awaiting the results of indicators
Assumed range
Assume a downside of around 1.1680 and an upside of around 1.1820.
Fluctuations are likely to be mainly within a range until the release of an index.
Price ranges are relatively limited and trading is likely to remain range-bound
tactics
Basis is mainly range rotation and consider short-term trading in the upper and lower bounds.
Respond with a small push to attract to the downside and a small return to sell on the upside close to the downside.
Keep positions light and limit risk until there is a sense of direction.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1820 could strengthen buying momentum in the short term.
A break below 1.1680 is likely to lead to a euro sell-off rather than a yen buy-off.
The results of the US economic indicators scheduled for tonight will be a turning point.
override condition
Review the strategy if a significant deviation from the expected range is identified.
Invalid if spike-like price movements immediately after the release of an indicator destroy confidence in the range.
Initial assumptions do not work even when volatility increases rapidly due to sudden news.
risk event
US economic indicators released
Deterioration in market sentiment due to prolonged government shutdown
Surprising fluctuations in ECB officials' statements and euro area economic indicators.
position management
Position size is usually handled in a less restrictive manner.
The profit margin is adjusted flexibly in increments of around 20 pips.
Set stop-losses outside the expected range to limit losses.
checklist
Watch for a downside move around 1.1680.
Confirmation of upside resistance around 1.1820.
Be aware of the risk of continued dollar selling due to the results of US economic indicators
Market summary
The GBPUSD has also been slightly softer as the US government shutdown has led to dollar selling.
The previous day closed in a directionless range around the low to mid 1.34s.
Markets are waiting for the next clue ahead of the release of US economic indicators.
Assumed range
Assume a downside of around 1.3370 and an upside of around 1.3550.
The focus tends to be on the back-and-forth within a range, and it is difficult to get a clear sense of direction.
As the market continues to attack and defend at the upper and lower bounds, attention should be paid to short-term swings.
tactics
The basic principle is based on range rotation, with trading based on reactions at the upper and lower bounds.
Attract to the downside and try to push the price down, but be aware of early gains.
Consider returning to the market on the upside and confirm a reversal before taking action.
trigger
A break above 1.3550 would likely strengthen short-term buy-backs.
Selling pressure is likely to prevail if the pair breaks below 1.3370
Sudden fluctuations may occur during the release of US economic indicators.
override condition
If there is a significant deviation from the expected range, the initial tactics are reviewed.
Also invalid in case of a sudden spike after an indicator release that breaks the confidence of the range.
Assumptions are also missed in the event of sudden changes due to geopolitical risks or sudden key figures' statements.
risk event
US key economic indicators released.
Prolonged government shutdown and budget talks
Impact on the pound of UK economic indicators and statements by Central Bank officials.
position management
Position sizes should be more conservative than usual.
The profit target is based on 20-30 pips, and is taken in small increments.
Losses are placed outside the expected range, limiting risk.
checklist
Watch for downside support around 1.3370
Confirmation of upside resistance around 1.3550.
Be aware of the risk of volatility due to the results of US economic indicators
Market summary
The Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance on inflationary pressures has led to a strong bid for the Australian dollar.
In the US, AUDUSD hovered around the 0.66 level as the dollar sold off against the backdrop of the partial government shutdown.
Markets are awaiting the release of US economic indicators to find out the next direction.
Assumed range
Assume a downside of around 0.6550 and an upside of around 0.6700.
Price movements tend to remain within a range before the release of an index.
Market participants focus on upper and lower milestones
tactics
The basic principle is based on range rotation, with short-term push-buying and return selling interwoven.
Attempt to push back in small lots after confirming a rebound near the lower price.
Prioritise gains when approaching the upside, and consider selling back after confirming a sell-back.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6700 would likely strengthen the buyback trend.
Selling pressure likely to prevail if below 0.6550
Sudden fluctuations may occur during the time of the release of US economic indicators
override condition
If there is a significant deviation from the expected range, the original tactic is reverted to a blank sheet of paper.
Also invalid if support or resistance ceases to function due to a sudden spike after the release of an economic indicator.
Assumptions are also missed when sudden news reduces liquidity and disrupts price movements.
risk event
US key economic indicators released.
Impact of the prolonged government shutdown on market sentiment.
Spillovers to the Australian dollar from Chinese economic indicators and resource price developments
position management
Position sizes should be restrained and adjusted to avoid excessive risk.
Interest gains are made in stages of around 20 pips.
Losses are placed outside the range to limit losses.
checklist
Watch for support around 0.6550
Check resistance around 0.6700.
Be aware of the risk of sudden changes during the release time of US economic indicators
AI postcards: today's market
review
Dollar selling started in Tokyo due to the partial US government shutdown and continued in Europe, while in New York, after being pushed lower by a weak ADP, it bounced back lower on the back of an upward swing in the ISM.
summary
Uncertainty weighed on the dollar's upside and the yen was predominant for much of the time.
Indicators were mixed in terms of strength and weakness, and it was difficult to see a clear trend.
The short-term remained range-focused as the market awaited events.
Today's price movements
Mainly in and out of the high Β₯146s to low Β₯148s
Tokyo is dominated by return sales, Europe is cutting highs, while in the second half of New York, the downside is reduced by buying back in the second half.
At the close, the market was struggling around 147 yen.
Background and materials
US government shutdown raised awareness of risk of statistical delays and policy uncertainty.
ADP weak, with interest rate cut expectations in mind, and ISM slightly higher.
The Bank of Japan's hawkish observation and a mix of strong and weak domestic indicators were perceived as supportive factors for the yen.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is around 148.20 and the downside around 146.60.
5-minute to hourly MAs are less inclined, with a mixture of return selling and push-buying.
Beware of damascene breaks before and after the index.
Technical note (mid-term).
150.00 is easily recognised as a psychological milestone.
Around 147.00 is the most recent support zone to check the reaction.
Room for confirmation of a return trend above 148.50; note the risk of continued adjustment below 146.50.
impression
A material-driven but short-term dominated day with little sense of direction.
Headlines and spikes during periods of low liquidity need attention.
trade observations
Range assumption, shallow gains, unrealised profits are secured in a short time.
Stops adjusted tighter immediately before the index, with new ones held back.
Reversals at the upper and lower limits focus on reaction confirmation and accompanying volume.
checklist
Reaction to potential push at 146.60-147.00
Return pressure at 148.20-148.50.
Check timetable for US economic indicators and key figures' statements.
review
US government agencies partially shut down, dollar selling ahead, but Eurozone PMI below 50 restrains upside, New York in a back-and-forth range on ADP weakness and ISM slight uptick.
summary
Materials were mixed, with a mix of strength and weakness, making it a difficult day for direction.
Weakness in the dollar and uncertainty about business confidence in the eurozone made it difficult to follow the market up or down.
Short-term mood was strongly wait-and-see for events, and the trend remained range-focused
Today's price movements
The range generally remained in the 1.171-1.178 range.
Tokyo turned around on the back of dollar sales, while in Europe, the head was held back by PMIs.
NY up on ADP, buyers pared gains after ISM
Background and materials
The dollar was easily weighed down by uncertainty due to the partial shutdown of US government agencies.
ADP was lower than expected and there were periods of predominant dollar selling.
Slight uptick in ISM, curbing the extreme tilt towards a weaker dollar.
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs fell below 50 again, weighing on the euro's upside.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside should be in the high 1.178s to around 1.1800 and the downside around 1.171.
5-minute to 1-hour MAs are flat and breakdowns are damascene.
Spikes immediately after the indicator should be considered for entry, waiting for a return after a round of spikes.
Technical note (mid-term).
Room for confirmation of a return trend at above 1.1800, and a continuation of the adjustment is likely to be seen at below 1.1700.
The slope of the 50-day and 200-day lines is limited and should be range-bound for the time being
1.1850-1.1900 is a return pressure zone and 1.1650-1.1700 confirms push-back behaviour.
impression
It was a day of multiple materials acting simultaneously, with a lot of room for discretion.
Price range but lacked sustainability, and the manoeuvrability of gains made the difference between success and failure.
trade observations
The basic idea is to use range rotation, waiting for a reaction near the upper and lower limits and ticking small bits.
New positions should be kept low before and after indicators, and existing positions should be kept at a short distance from stops and gains.
Forward movement should be considered after attracting a break above 1.1800 and a break below 1.1700.
checklist
With pushing behaviour and volume at 1.1700-1.1710
Sustained upside reaction and break of the 1.178s to 1.1800s
Check timetable for US indicators and key figures and whether spreads are widening
review
Partial shutdown of US government agencies leads to dollar sell-off in Tokyo, UK PMI below 50 in Europe, NY rises on ADP weakness but sluggish on ISM upswing.
summary
Limited direction due to a mix of weak dollar factors and weak UK business confidence.
There were many times when it was difficult to follow the ground both up and down, and people tended to look away.
Short-term, the mood is strongly range-centred as we wait for the event.
Today's price movements
Generally forming a traffic circle between 1.3440 and 1.3530
Returns dominate in Tokyo, with Europe cutting higher.
NY up after ADP, but buyers pushed back after ISM, reducing gains.
Background and materials
Partial US government shutdown weighs on the US dollar as policy uncertainty is perceived.
ADP falls short of expectations, creating a stronger selling phase for the dollar
Slight uptick in ISM curbs tilt towards extreme dollar weakness
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is around 1.3520-1.3550, which is a candidate for a return sale.
The initial indication of the downside is around 1.3370-1.3400 for a push.
Short-term MAs are flat and breakouts must be damascene.
Technical note (mid-term).
Above 1.3600 is a return pressure zone, 1.3300-1.3350 is a zone of thick supply and demand.
The slope of the 50-day and 200-day lines is limited and range consciousness is appropriate for the time being.
impression
Multiple factors act simultaneously and the outlook is short-term dominated.
Many unsustainable price movements tested the manoeuvrability of gains.
trade observations
The basic idea is to use range rotation to check the reaction of the upper and lower limits and chop them in small pieces.
Hold back on new orders and keep stops tight immediately before the index.
checklist
With pushing behaviour and volume around 1.3400
Sustained upside reaction and break above 1.3520-1.3550
Timetable of US indicators and key figures and whether spreads are widening
review
Tokyo sells Australian dollar ahead, but rallies as US government agencies are aware of dollar sales due to partial US government shutdown, while New York is sluggish with ISM slightly higher after ADP weak to the upside.
summary
Materials are mixed in terms of strength and limited in terms of direction.
Short-term, the mood is strongly range-centred as we wait for the event.
Today's price movements
Generally bounces back and forth in a narrow range of 0.6590-0.6629
Tokyo recovered from a small move around 0.6600, with a mixed reaction in New York after the index.
Background and materials
Dollar weighed down by awareness of policy uncertainty due to partial US government shutdown
ADP falls short of expectations, causing a period of predominant dollar selling.
ISM manufacturing slightly higher, curbing excessive dollar weakness.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The upside is around 0.6630-0.6650, which is a candidate for a return to the market.
The downside confirms the pushing behaviour around 0.6590-0.6600.
Technical note (mid-term).
Range perception of 0.6550-0.6700 as a baseline.
Room for confirmation of a return trend above 0.6700; note the risk of continued adjustment below 0.6550.
impression
Headline-dependent and discretionary ground for questioning.
Price range but lack of continuity and mobility of gains is important.
trade observations
The basic idea is to use range rotation, wait for the upper and lower limits to react and chop in small increments.
Limit new orders before and after the index and adjust stops tightly.
checklist
With push reaction and volume around 0.6590
Sustained return pressure and break of 0.6630-0.6650
Timetable of US indicators and key figures and whether spreads are widening
FX Diary.