Market summary

The previous day, the dollar was sold off sharply, falling to the high ¥146 range, and attention is focused on whether the downward trend will continue today.

While there is awareness of US interest rate trends and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk of a US government agency closure is a cause for concern.

The supply-demand imbalance caused by month-end rebalancing could lead to temporary fluctuations and requires vigilance.

Assumed range

Price movements around the 146.20-147.80 area are to be considered.

The downside is expected to be around 146.00, while the upside is expected to test 148.00.

The possibility of a range transition rather than a major trend shift should be assumed.

tactics

In the short term, the basic stance may be to return to the market.

A return may be tested to around 147.50, from where a reaction will be confirmed.

The willingness to buy at the pushpoint remains, so do not be overly biased in one direction and take a cautious approach.

trigger

To the upside, the focus will be on following a clear break above 148.00.

On the downside, a break below 146.00 could lead to a stronger search for lower prices.

Reports on US employment-related indicators and the risk of a US government shutdown will influence price movements.

override condition

A steady move above 148.50 to consolidate would negate the return strategy.

Conversely, a significant break below 146.00 would result in a search for new lows, requiring a rethink of tactics.

If the expected range is deviated significantly, the standing position is reset.

risk event

Availability of media reports related to the risk of a US government shutdown.

Results of key US economic indicators, in particular employment-related statistics and inflation indicators.

Comments and observational articles on the BoJ's policy stance.

position management

Keep size lower than normal and avoid holding excessive positions before and after the event.

Interest is taken in increments of 20-40 pips to ensure a reliable profit.

Losses should be clearly set at milestones such as above 148.50 and below 145.80.

checklist

Check the balance between US interest rate trends and BOJ rate hike expectations.

Be aware of the impact of month-end rebalancing on supply and demand flows.

Sensitive to reports of the risk of a US government shutdown.

Market summary

Today, Lagarde's remarks and a series of German indicators provide clues to the interest rate outlook.

The tug-of-war between upside restraint and buy-backs is likely to continue due to mixed speculation on US interest rates and US indices.

Note that month-end rebalancing flows may increase short-time swings

Assumed range

Assumed to test up and down around 1.1600-1.1800.

The upside is likely to be around 1.1760-1.1800 as a guide to the return.

The downside is to watch for a reaction in the vicinity of 1.1640-1.1600.

tactics

For the time being, switch between push-buying and return selling in small increments based on range rotation.

Prepare for widening spreads and sudden changes by limiting open interest before and after events.

Avoid following momentum reliance by interspersing breaks with re-return checks.

trigger

Consider room for a push test above 1.1800 and confirm initial European time.

1.1600 Clear break to watch for downward pressure and inspect for continuity after NY entry.

Immediately after Lagarde's statement and the German index, observe whether there is a reversal after the spike.

override condition

Range assumptions are revised if the trend continues to be significantly above the assumed range

Tactics need to be restructured if 1.1820 fixation or 1.1580 break fixation is confirmed.

Return to square once the basis is broken by a temporary indicator-derived whisker.

risk event

Governor Lagarde's remarks and key German indicators.

US interest rate-related headlines and major US indices.

Intermittent flows around month-end rebalancing and London FIX

position management

Less size than usual, entries are spread out and average opening price is considered.

Priority is given to the preservation of unrealised profits by taking profits in 15-35 pips increments in stages.

Losses are placed outside the milestones and re-entry is time-staggered.

checklist

Tone of Governor Lagarde's remarks and the direction of surprises in German indicators.

US interest rates by time zone and changes in flows from European time to New York

Timing and degree of convergence of price movements as the impact of month-end rebalancing fades

Market summary

The previous day's close was marked by a slow return to the market due to a sense of weakness on the upside, and today we need to carefully check whether there are signs of a reversal.

Mixture of US interest rate developments, BoE stance and speculation on UK wages and PMIs, with a strong wait for materials

Note that month-end rebalancing flows may create a temporary supply-demand bias.

Assumed range

Assumed around 1.3380-1.3560

The lower boundary is around 1.3400 and the upper boundary is 1.3520-1.3560, which is the resistance guideline.

Tokyo is likely to be swing-limited, with a focus on direction in European hours.

tactics

Prioritise range rotation for the time being, switching between return selling and push-buying in the short term.

Limit open interest before and after indices to prepare for spreads and sudden fluctuations

Avoid forcing a reversal if a one-way flow of month-end factors is observed.

trigger

A break above 1.3560 will retract the view of return dominance and consider room for a push test.

Downward pressure likely to increase below 1.3400, focus on 1.3380

European indicators and the time of key figures' statements are likely to be the starting point for a break.

override condition

Range assumptions revised if the range continues to stabilise at 1.3600

1.3360 Reconsider tactics as a clear break below 1.3360 will strengthen the downside bias if it takes hold.

Refrain from following a false break without volume.

risk event

UK high-frequency indicators and key figures' statements.

US interest rate-related headlines and major US indices.

Intermittent flows associated with month-end rebalancing

position management

Based on split entries and distributed gains, with a smaller size than usual.

Gains are made in 20-40 pips increments in stages.

Stop-losses are set outside of milestones such as above 1.3560 and below 1.3360.

checklist

Is there any bias in the initial flows in the European hours and after the entry into New York?

Has the interaction between UK indicators and the US interest rate outlook changed direction?

Have you misjudged when the impact of the month-end rebalancing will fade?

Market summary

Today's Reserve Bank of Australia policy rate announcement is scheduled to draw attention to the interest rate stance.

Uncertainty over the risk of a US government shutdown is likely to influence the movement of the dollar.

Month-end rebalancing flows may increase temporary swings

Assumed range

Expected to hover around 0.6560-0.6660

Resistance zone to the upside is around 0.6640-0.6660.

The downside reaction should be in the region of 0.6560-0.6580.

tactics

For the time being, prioritise range rotation and buy on the downside and sell on the upside in small increments.

Hold down open interest before and after policy decisions to prepare for sudden changes.

It is advisable to refrain from following the announcement until the post-announcement process is clear.

trigger

Consideration of room to push above 0.6660 and confirm continuity for European hours.

Downward pressure likely to increase below 0.6560 and focus on reaction in NY hours.

Initial movements immediately after the Australian policy rate announcement are likely to trigger trend formation

override condition

Need to revise the return assumption if the price continues to stabilise in the 0.6680 level.

Review the push-buy strategy if the 0.6540 breakdown is established.

Once out of the expected range, return to square and re-establish standing position.

risk event

Reserve Bank of Australia policy rate announcement and statement

Risk of US government agency closures and related headlines.

Major US economic indicators and interest rate-related news.

position management

Split entry with less size than usual and awareness of average opening price.

Profit taking is carried out in 15-30 pips increments in stages to build up earnings.

Set stop-losses outside the milestones and prepare for the possibility of a false start.

checklist

Tone and initial direction of the statement following the Australian policy rate announcement

Press coverage and market reaction to the risk of a US government shutdown.

Time and intensity at which the impact of month-end rebalancing becomes apparent.

review

In Tokyo, the dollar sold off and was pushed lower, while in Europe, the return of the dollar remained sluggish, and after entering New York, the dollar continued to test its lows.

summary

The day was prone to brief swings in US interest rates and BOJ observations, combined with month-end rebalancing.

Returns were limited and convergence to the 148.00 area was noticeable, with direction depending on materials.

Today's price movements

The downward trend was set in Tokyo, with a continued slowdown in Europe and a renewed test of the downside in New York.

The reaction was heavy around 148.40-148.50 on the upside and 147.50-147.80 on the downside.

Background and materials

The outlook for US interest rates and speculation about the risk of a US government shutdown influenced the direction of the dollar.

The Bank of Japan's rate hike speculation and headlines of key figures' statements intermittently shook flows.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The waveform continued to move upwards on the return phase, and in the short term it was easy to be aware of a return to the market.

148.20-148.50 was a resistance zone and 147.80-147.50 was monitored as a potential push zone

Technical note (mid-term).

On a daily basis, the 147.00-147.50 zone was considered a candidate for support with a divergence of returns around 149.00.

The medium term continued to be prone to swinging up and down on materials, based on the assumption of a return to within the range.

impression

A wait-and-see attitude in front of the milestone was felt to be more effective than chasing in one direction.

Spread widening and whiskers required attention during times of thinning liquidity.

trade observations

The open interest was small and dispersed, and the operation of switching between selling on the return and buying at the pushpoint in the short term worked.

A conservative setting was appropriate, with gains stacked in small increments and losses placed outside the milestones.

checklist

US interest rate headlines and the direction of bond futures

Impact of pre- and post-London FIX and month-end rebalancing

Time and price widening of key figures and major US indices

review

Tokyo and Europe were ahead of the buyers, but were pushed down at the previous day's highs and failed to break above the New York highs, so the range continued.

summary

Lagarde's comments and speculation on German indicators shook interest rate observations and direction is awaiting material

Month-end rebalancing flows amplify short-term swings, with limited price volatility.

Difficult terrain for both upside and downside growth due to awareness of option milestones

Today's price movements

Upside is likely to stall around 1.1760-1.1800, with a slower return.

Lower prices are bouncing back to the downside around 1.1710-1.1700.

Mostly back and forth in the 1.17s from Europe to New York

Background and materials

ECB's forward-looking stance is strongly tinged with data-dependent and the rate cut outlook is not fixed.

Speculation on US interest rates and US indicators swings the direction of the dollar intraday.

Noise increase in rebalancing and headlines before and after London FIX

Technical memorandum (short term)

Short-term convergence with a mix of lower highs and higher lows

Reactions around the 5-20 EMA band are more frequent and momentum is difficult to generate.

Confirmation of re-return after a break is useful.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily range is watched for a milestone attack on the assumption that the range of 1.1680-1.1850 will be maintained.

Distance from 200-day line is small and direction depends on indicators

Weekly upside resistance before 1.19 weighs.

impression

On days when events and flows overlap, time of day habits are more important than level guesses.

Passive waiting before a milestone is more likely to work than forced following.

trade observations

Open interest is divided into small lots to set average opening prices and prioritise short-term gains.

Immediately after a spike, there is a high risk of retrograde movement and entry should be held back until reconfirmation.

Losses are placed outside the milestone and rebuilt on the return of a dummy.

checklist

Tone of Governor Lagarde's remarks and the direction of surprises in German indicators.

Flow bias and price widening before and after the London FIX

US interest rate headlines and continuity in early New York

review

Limited sense of direction amidst month-end rebalancing-oriented flows, with notable swings around the London FIX

summary

Mood of waiting for material continued as UK indicators and US interest rate expectations were mixed.

While the return was slow and the upside heavy, the ground was easy to buy back in at the pushpoint.

Today's price movements

Tokyo was range-bound with a wait-and-see approach and a return test in Europe, but upside was limited.

After entering New York, the price range converged at the end of the day after a series of small comings and goings.

During the day, the market was mainly stagnant in the low 1.34s to around 1.35.

Background and materials

US interest rate headlines and BoE stance observations shook short-term flows.

Month-end rebalancing was more likely to induce unidirectional flows before and after the FIX.

UK GDP and PMI assessments were divided and the environment was difficult to grow both upwards and downwards.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Returns are likely to slow down around 1.3520-1.3560

The area around 1.3440-1.3400 is prone to buy-backs.

The short term was a convergence of highs and lows with ups and downs.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily range continues to search for direction within the 1.34-1.36 range.

Limited sustainability of the break due to many reactions around the moving average band.

I need volume and time of day support for an upside pass.

impression

I'd rather focus on time habits and milestones backwards and forwards than on level guesses.

Spikes before and after FIX should be handled with caution, including reversals.

trade observations

The open interest should be divided into small lots to set the average opening price and prioritise small incremental gains.

When retrograding, cut losses outside the milestone without hesitation and assume a rebuild.

Immediately after the event, it is advisable to refrain from following the event until confirmation of a re-return.

checklist

Flow bias and price widening before and after the London FIX

US interest rate headlines and continuity in early New York

Change in tone and market reaction to UK indicators and key figures' statements.

review

The RBA remained unchanged but mentioned upside risks to inflation and the buying trend continued.

summary

A hawkish interpretation of the statement supported the Australian dollar and limited short-term pushback was likely.

Speculation on US interest rates and the risk of a US government shutdown was prone to swings in the remaining time frames.

Today's price movements

The market was slowly rising in early Asia and continued to test the highs after entering Europe.

There were many occasions before and after the index, with temporary spikes to the upside.

Achievement and slower growth towards New York, but mainly at higher prices.

Background and materials

The RBA's 'unchanged + inflation caution' has curbed early easing speculation.

US interest rate outlook and shutdown-related headlines swayed the direction of the dollar.

Month-end rebalancing and flow bias around the London FIX created short swings.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The price continued to attack around 0.6600 and was easy to buy back at the push point.

While maintaining the highs on the upside, the upside lacked momentum.

The downward push was shallow and the rebound was quick above the short-term moving average band.

Technical note (mid-term).

The wide range view of 0.6400-0.6700 was mainly maintained and the traffic was mainly at the milestone.

Divergence from the 200-day line was limited and trend judgement awaits material

The weekly trend suggested a holding pattern with a combination of return and buy-back pressure.

impression

Immediately after the event, an emphasis on confirming the re-return after the spike was felt to be effective.

Priority should be given to time of day and liquidity changes rather than level guesses.

trade observations

The operation of diversifying open positions, ensuring small lots and adjusting the average open price has worked.

Gains were accumulated in small divisions and losses were fixed outside the milestone.

Once back to square one when retrograde, the scenario was re-examined.

checklist

Reinterpretation of RBA statement and change in tone of key figures' statements.

US interest rate headlines and continuity in early New York

Bias of month-end flows before and after the London FIX and whether or not the price range is widening