Market summary

Limited US indicators and material calms down after the passage of the August PCE.

On the Japanese side, the authorities are likely to be aware of excessive volatility checks and the BoJ's stance.

The 150.00 level is likely to act as an upside pressure and the mid-149 level is being confirmed.

Assumed range

Assumed range is around 149.20-150.20

The upside is expected to be in the vicinity of 150.00-150.20, where a return to the market is likely.

Downside remains to be pushed to 149.20-149.40, but beware of running on the break.

tactics

Basic priority is given to range rotation.

Lean back before 150.00 and consider buying at 149.30.

Reduce size and wait for headlines during times of low dominance.

trigger

150.20 Switch to short-term forward tension on a break above 150.20 and follow with limited risk.

149.20 Switch back to sell on a clear break below 149.20 Focus on post-London time zone.

The ability to confirm the unidirectional movement of US interest rates and the synchronisation of the US dollar index.

override condition

After a break above 150.20, it immediately fell back below 150.00 and was accompanied by volume.

Rapid rebound with a fake below 149.20 and a V-shaped return to above 149.80.

A phase of reduced liquidity, including widening spreads, due to increased speculation of intervention.

risk event

Headlines of key figures' statements and authorities' messages

US interest rate trends and related market volatility expansion

Sudden risk on/off due to US government-related and geopolitical news

position management

Approximate risk per transaction 0.5-1.0% of account balance.

Interest is set at 8-15p within the range and reduced immediately in the event of a reversal.

Losses are placed outside the recent high and low and withdrawn immediately if the trigger fails.

checklist

Thickness and number of hits in the vicinity of 150.00

Confirmation of directional match between US interest rates and the USD index.

Flow changes after Tokyo mid-market and early London

Market summary

Adjustment tone with a slow return after a sharp drop on 25th

Trading is mixed in front of recent lows and confirmation of lower prices is a priority.

US indicators limited, focus on inflation expectations and interest rate trends

Not consolidating below, direction awaits European and US time.

Assumed range

1.1700-1.1780 Front and rear

The upside is assumed to be around 1.1760-1.1780, where a return sale is likely to take place.

Downside remains to be pushed to around 1.1700-1.1680.

Keep in mind that the amplitude of the swing will increase depending on events

tactics

Basic priority is given to range rotation.

Returns are likely to be structured from selling around 1.1760.

Push is around 1.1700, consider buying in small lots after confirmation of rebound.

Notebooks are also an option during times of low dominance.

trigger

1.1780 Switch to short-term forward tension on a break above 1.1780

1.1700 Switch back to selling at a clear break

Confirmation of increased volume and synchronised markets after London's arrival.

override condition

After a break above, the volume deteriorated with a swift fall back below 1.1750.

V-shaped negative shape with a rapid return to above 1.1730 after the downside

Spread widening continues due to headline factors

risk event

European inflation-related bulletins and key figures' statements.

Unidirectional movements in US interest rates and the dollar index.

Geopolitical and government-related sudden news.

position management

Approximate risk per transaction 0.5-1.0% of account balance.

8-15p for a profit margin, with staggered profit-taking if growth slows.

Stop-losses are outside the recent high and low or ATR x 1.0-1.5.

Gradual reduction of lot size in case of consecutive losses.

checklist

Directional match between the dollar index and US interest rates

Whether the highs and lows have been renewed since the early London departure

Thickness of the board and number of hits

Market summary

After falling sharply on 25 May, the previous day's price movements were only adjustive against the backdrop of a lack of direction in the US dollar and mixed UK interest rate expectations.

It cannot be said to have consolidated lower prices and continues to be in a phase of searching for direction.

The outlook for monetary policy in the US and the UK is mixed, and it remains difficult to see a clear underlying tone.

Assumed range

The price is expected to hover around 1.3050-1.3250.

The immediate line of attack is around 1.3150.

There is scope for range expansion if the range is exited either up or down.

tactics

In the short term, be aware of the need to return to the market, but also look for room to buy back in after confirming the lower price.

A cautious stance is advisable until a clear break above 1.3150.

Focus on short-term rotation within a range, assuming an adjustment phase.

trigger

To the upside, a break above 1.3250 is a good guide for a buy-back.

The downward trend is likely to be dominated by selling below 1.3050.

US economic indicators and key figures' statements could be short-term triggers.

override condition

A clear break above 1.3300 would negate the return scenario.

The assumption of a downward dominance will be broken if the daily trend to higher highs continues.

If a sudden change in sentiment occurs, the scenario needs to be revised.

risk event

US economic indicators (consumption-related and price indicators) influence the dollar in general.

Statements from BoE officials and UK inflation-related data will be of interest.

The market reaction to developments in US interest rates requires vigilance.

position management

Position sizes should be more modest than usual.

The profit margin should be 20-30 pips and taken in small increments on the assumption of an adjustmental move.

Losses should be dealt with by setting a shallow stop-loss based on the most recent high and low prices.

checklist

Direction should be confirmed on the basis of the 1.3150 attack.

Keep track of the times of US economic indicators and key figures' statements.

Do not carry over positions when risk events occur.

Market summary

After falling sharply on 25 May, the previous day was limited to a narrow range of adjustments against the backdrop of lack of direction in the US dollar and concerns about the Chinese economy.

While there is a sense of downside heaviness, a short-term test of a return is also in the pipeline.

Strong support for the Australian dollar alone is scarce and the situation remains susceptible to external factors.

Assumed range

Assume price movements around 0.6550-0.6700.

The area around 0.6650 is considered as the immediate line of attack.

There is room for range expansion if it can be pulled out either up or down.

tactics

Basically, be aware of return sales, but focus on detailed gains in short-term return phases.

Maintain a sell-dominant stance until a clear break above 0.6650.

It is advisable to take a short-term orientation, focusing on rotational trading within a range.

trigger

To the upside, buy-back pressure is likely to strengthen if the pair breaks above 0.6700.

On the downside, the downward trend strengthens below 0.6550.

US economic indicators and key figures' statements could trigger a short-term change in direction.

override condition

A clear break above 0.6720 would negate the return scenario.

If the daily highs continue to rise, the assumption of a downward dominance will be broken.

A rapid improvement in overall market risk appetite would also require a review of the scenario

risk event

US economic indicators (related to consumer spending and prices) influence the overall dollar

News on Chinese economic indicators and economic trends are likely to have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.

RBA officials' comments could create short-term movement in the Australian dollar.

position management

Keep position sizes small and limit risk based on the assumption of an adjustment phase.

The basic response is to take profits in increments of 20 to 30 pips.

Set stop-losses based on recent highs and lows and avoid going too deep.

checklist

To see if the 0.6650 attack continues.

Keeping track of the time of US economic indicators and China-related news.

Do not carry over positions when risk events occur.

review

The yen strengthened on the back of comments made by a Bank of Japan advisory board member, and the decline was not interrupted by a pushback, and the 25-day rise was eliminated.

summary

An event-driven day, with a combination of key figures and sluggish US interest rate growth

Selling spilled over from below the previous day's highs and lows, and returns remained limited.

The end of the day was marked by intra-day lows, and the short term was marked by weakness.

Today's price movements

The upward pressure was confirmed in Tokyo time and the downward pressure strengthened on entering Europe.

The return was slow in early New York, and the flow continued after a retest of the previous day's lows.

The price range was wider than the previous day, with notable reactions around PP and S1.

Background and materials

Remarks by BOJ deliberation committee members provided clues in the direction of the yen

Sluggish US interest rate growth and slightly risk-averse sentiment restrained the dollar's upside.

There was an aspect of real demand flows approaching the end of the month that amplified the ups and downs.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Longer below PP, return was limited to a short waveform

Heavy returns to the previous day's lows and PPs prevented a break above them on many occasions.

A downward push with whiskers followed, accompanied by an expansion of the Bollinger +/- 2σ

Technical note (mid-term).

The 4-hour leg was lined up with a predominant return after falling below the short-to-medium-term EMA

The daily price cut and the low price renewal are now in awareness and the lower end of the range has moved to attack the lower end of the range

Weekly substance continued to contract, and the direction of direction appeared to be close to waiting for indicators.

impression

Impression of fast initial reaction to material and advance position adjustment.

Time of day and liquidity bias rather than levels affected the results.

Early profit-taking appeared to be more effective than deep profit-taking towards the end of the day.

trade observations

Break-following was limited to the initial response, followed by a short-term rotation waiting for the return, which worked.

Shallow interest settings were successful, and early withdrawal was safe in the event of a retrograde trend.

Entry plan worked in line with indicators and key dates.

checklist

To identify changes in the position of the PP and the previous day's high and low.

Simultaneous monitoring of US interest rates and stock futures to understand the tilt of the ground.

Limit position sizes around the time of keynote statements and indicators.

review

Buying continued from Tokyo to London and New York, but was held back by heavy profit-taking near the New York highs.

summary

A day of mixed US interest rate growth and strong and weak European indicators made it difficult to get a sense of direction for the dollar.

The market was a battle between return selling and push-buying amidst a lingering awareness of the 25-day high, and closed slightly back at the end of the day.

The mood was strongly wait-and-see for events, and in the short term it was easier to assume a traffic pattern than a price widening.

Today's price movements

Tokyo started the day above the previous day's closing price, with a gradual buy-back in the early stages.

Buying accelerated in London and tested the previous day's highs, but the upside was limited near the highs in early New York

The market fell back temporarily due to profit-taking and selling back at the highs, and then recovered slightly after a round of downward pressure.

Background and materials

A pause in the rise in US interest rates and a revised outlook for the US economy have dampened dollar buying.

Mixed strength and weakness in prices and business confidence in the euro area, and the factoring in of the ECB stance also made it difficult to set direction.

Risk appetite was not overly biased, with equity futures and credit movements limiting the amplitude of exchange rate movements.

Technical memorandum (short term)

There was a noticeable back-and-forth stalling around R1 after a break above PP and a return in the direction of PP again.

Failed to confirm substance above the previous day's high and failed to confirm the continuity of the upward movement.

Bollinger expanded slightly, but the stay outside ±2σ was short and the pushback was fast.

Technical note (mid-term).

The 4-hourly trend remained above the short-to-medium-term EMA bundle, but the momentum of the highs slowed down.

On the daily basis, the substance shrank slightly and became close to a coma, making the upper end of the range heavier.

At the weekly level, the range centre was unable to break out of the range, and the direction of the market remained in a wait-and-see mode pending events.

impression

The upward momentum slowed down in New York, giving the impression that price movements were influenced by differences in time zones and liquidity.

New followers were less likely to extend at higher prices, and short-term rotation during the pushback phase was more likely to work.

The price range was moderate and it was more important to identify reaction points than to follow extreme trends.

trade observations

The break was limited to the initial move, and quick profit-taking was effective once the stall was confirmed at R1 or the previous day's high.

The push was to wait for a reaction near the PP and for the candlestick substance to be confirmed, and to ensure a withdrawal at shallow retrogression.

Size was kept below normal and further reduced before and after the event to limit risk.

checklist

Does the position of the PP and the previous day's high and low not indicate a buying advantage or traffic?

Reconfirm the time of US indicators and key figures' statements, and whether you are able to lighten your position immediately before and after.

Whether the relationship between the whiskers and the substance around the R1 and round numbers is enough to determine whether stalling or continued growth is possible.

review

Bought from Tokyo to London and New York, but failed to extend near the New York highs and closed slightly back after a pushback.

summary

A day of mixed US interest rate growth and BoE stance observations made it difficult to find direction.

The dominant buying trend stalled in New York, with gains and returns prevailing at the highs.

The end of the day was marked by a push and a recovery after a round of downward pressure.

Today's price movements

Tokyo maintained above the previous day's closing price, with a gradual buy-back progressing.

Momentum gained momentum in London and a test of the 25-day high and the 1.3200 area was conscious.

New York was back down on the upside at the highs, followed by a small return.

Background and materials

A pause in the rise in US interest rates and a wait-and-see attitude towards US economic indicators dampened dollar buying.

UK inflation trends and the outlook for the BoE restrained GBP buying.

There was an aspect of real demand flows approaching the end of the month that amplified the ups and downs.

Technical memorandum (short term)

There was a noticeable traffic that started on PP, stalled around R1 and then reverted back to the PP direction once it was in place.

Failed to confirm substance above the previous day's high, and failed to confirm a continuation to the upside

The momentum of higher prices was limited while remaining above the short-term EMA

Technical note (mid-term).

The 4-hourly remained in the vicinity of the short- and medium-term EMA bundle, with little momentum bias.

The daily substance contracted slightly and the upper end of the range became heavier.

The weekly trend was around the central region and the direction was awaiting events.

impression

It was a day when differences in liquidity between time zones could easily affect performance.

Following highs was harder to extend, and quick gains based on reaction points were effective.

It worked better to build on the assumption of repetition of traffic rather than continuity of breaks.

trade observations

Tests of high prices were limited to the initial response, and once the stall was confirmed, profits were secured in the short term.

The push was entered by waiting for a reaction around the PP and the confirmation of the candle substance.

Size was kept to a minimum before and after the event, and a shallow and thorough withdrawal when the event was retrograde.

checklist

Does the position of the PP and the previous day's high and low not indicate a buying advantage or traffic?

Is the relationship between the whiskers and the substance at the 25-day high and around 1.3200 being assessed to see if it stalls or continues to grow?

Are you able to lighten your positions around the time of US indicators and BoE-related statements?

review

Bidding started in Tokyo and continued in London with a shallow push, and closed higher in New York with a higher price.

summary

The Australian dollar remained resilient as the dollar was weighed down by sluggish US interest rate growth and supported by resource prices.

The momentum of the follow-through slowed at the highs, and it was a day of repeated up-tests with pushes in between.

Clear trend acceleration remained limited, with a tinge of waiting for events

Today's price movements

Buying back above PP in Tokyo was preceded by a buyback.

London resurfaced from a push around 0.6650 and tested R1.

After breaking around 0.6700 in New York, the price closed at a higher level.

Background and materials

A pause in US interest rate rises and a wait for indicators restrained the dollar's upside.

China-related headlines and resource prices were factors in the volatility of the Australian dollar.

The RBA's neutral leaning stance continued to be observed and was easily swayed by external factors.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Longer on PP, with a noticeable reaction around R1

The push was shallow and the turnaround was fast, holding above the short-term EMA

Bollinger widened slightly and moved more along the upper band

Technical note (mid-term).

The 4-hourly has repositioned itself above the EMA bundle, approaching a push-buy dominant alignment.

The daily range was set to test the upper limit of the 0.6550-0.6700 range.

Momentum bias was not excessive while the highs continued to rise.

impression

Liquidity differences between time zones were likely to affect performance on the day.

Following at higher prices was less likely to increase margins, and rotation at reaction points was more effective.

Prioritising risk management over expectations before and after an event

trade observations

The break was limited to an initial thin entry and a quick gain once the stretch was confirmed.

The push was picked up in small increments, waiting for a reaction around PP and 0.6650.

Retrogression was shallow and withdrawn, and size was kept below normal.

checklist

To check the time spent between PP and R1 and the strength of the regression.

Reconfirming the time of US indicators and China-related headlines.

Observe the relationship between the whiskers and the substance at the push at 0.6650 and around 0.6700.