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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | Sept Tokyo Metropolitan Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Personal income [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug Personal consumption expenditure (PCE deflator) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug Personal consumption expenditure (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy) [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug Personal consumption expenditure (PCE core deflator, excluding food and energy) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Sept University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, confirmed |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The previous day, strong economic indicators in the US were noticed, and the dollar was predominantly bought amid shaken speculation of a US interest rate cut. Today, new key indicators are due to be released, and speculation on the interest rate outlook is likely to change depending on the results. In addition, rebalancing flows over the weekend may combine with short-term supply and demand swings to influence price movements. Overall, the market is likely to remain in a high price range, and attention should be paid to reactions to materials.
The previous day, US economic indicators exceeded expectations, shaking expectations of a rate cut and buying the dollar, pushing the euro lower. Today, new key indicators are due to be released, and views on interest rate differentials are likely to change depending on the results. In addition, the weekend's rebalancing flows coincide with supply and demand factors, which could lead to temporary fluctuations.
The previous day, strong economic indicators in the US led to dollar buying, which pushed the pound lower against the dollar. The results of the indicators were significantly higher than market expectations, which shook expectations of a rate cut and increased awareness of interest rate differentials. A new key indicator is due today, and depending on the result, dollar buying could be triggered again. In addition, rebalancing flows over the weekend also overlap, making the market susceptible to temporary fluctuations caused by supply and demand factors.
The previous day, the Australian dollar was pushed lower against the US dollar as strong economic indicators in the US were noticed and dollar buying prevailed amid wavering interest rate cut speculation. A new key indicator is due today, and depending on the result, speculation on interest rate differentials is likely to change, requiring caution. In addition, the weekend also coincides with rebalancing flows, and short-term supply and demand fluctuations could affect the market.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
There were no surprises in the US indicators and material was generally limited. The market lacked a sense of direction throughout the day and closed in an adjustment-tinged struggle at the end of the day.
There were no surprises in the market, as the August personal consumption expenditure released in the US came in line with expectations. There was a lack of new material from the eurozone, and overall the day was marked by a strong adjustment.
The impact on the market was limited, as the August personal consumption expenditure released in the US was in line with expectations and hardly a surprise. However, the pound was bought into the market towards the New York time, and ultimately the day showed a slight rise with some adjustments.
In the US, consumer spending in August came in line with expectations and had a limited impact on the market. The market slightly renewed the previous day's lows in European hours, but reversed in New York on the back of a buy-back. As a result, the market remained within a small range with strong adjustment throughout the day.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The previous day, strong economic indicators in the US shook expectations of a rate cut, leading to dollar buying.
Today's phase is a combination of key indicator releases and weekend rebalancing, which requires attention to supply-demand swings.
Overall, it is easy to continue to attack and defend at high levels and the direction of the market is likely to change depending on the material.
Assumed range
The price is expected to remain around 147.80-149.80.
The upside is likely to be aware of the milestone around 150.00.
The downside will be a focus of attention below the 147.50 area.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on push-buying.
However, considering the short-term risk of a sell-back, focus on picking up at the lower price reference.
Return sales will be considered only after confirming that momentum has stalled at the highs.
trigger
A clear break above 150.00 is likely to increase buying pressure.
A break below 147.50 is likely to accelerate the adjustment.
The results of US economic indicators and weekend rebalancing developments are short-term triggers.
override condition
A clear break below 147.00 would negate the push-buy tactic.
The scenario will be revised if the highs do not continue to stay in the highs and the price remains below 148.00.
The assumption also breaks down if liquidity declines rapidly due to changes in supply and demand factors.
risk event
US personal consumption expenditure related indicators.
Revision of the interest rate outlook due to statements by Fed officials.
Month-end and weekend rebalancing flows.
position management
Lots start at half the normal level and increase or decrease is considered after confirming the direction of travel.
Gains are around 149.80 or adjust to confirm momentum after breaking 150.00.
Set stop-losses below 147.40 to avoid stalling.
checklist
Confirmation of possible break above 150.00.
Identifies changes in supply and demand due to weekend rebalancing.
Watch for a revised interest rate outlook following the release of US indicators.
Market summary
The previous day, US economic indicators exceeded expectations and the euro was pushed lower as dollar buying prevailed.
Markets are sensitive to changes in the interest rate differential outlook ahead of a new key indicator today
Short-term swings need to be watched with the added impact of flows due to weekend rebalancing.
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 1.1650-1.1750
The downside is likely to be around 1.1650 as support.
The focus on the upside is to test resistance above 1.1750 to around 1.1780.
tactics
The basic policy is to sell on the return
Avoid easy following in strong rebound phases and identify milestones.
Short-term upside is used as room for position adjustment.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1780 would temporarily curb the return strategy.
Downward momentum is likely to strengthen if the pair breaks below 1.1650.
Results of US indicators and European time flows will be the short-term turning points.
override condition
If established above 1.1800, the return strategy is negated.
If 1.1700 cannot be maintained and is established downwards, it is necessary to reassess the assumption of further weakness.
Scenarios are also invalid in the event of a major abrupt change due to supply and demand factors.
risk event
US statistics related to personal consumption expenditure.
Preliminary European consumer confidence and PMI figures.
Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing
position management
Position sizes should be carefully adjusted, with a maximum of half the normal size.
Gains should be around 1.1660 to ensure short-term downside.
Stop-losses are set above 1.1785 and risk management is strictly enforced.
checklist
Confirmation of possible downside of 1.1650
Watch for a move above 1.1780.
Understand changes in the outlook for interest rate differentials following the release of US indices
Market summary
The previous day, the pound was pushed lower as strong economic indicators in the US were noticed and the dollar was bought.
Interest rate differentials have strengthened the preference for the dollar as the prospect of interest rate cuts wavers.
Today's new key indicators and weekend rebalancing combine to create a phase where short-term swings need to be watched carefully.
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 1.3320-1.3420.
The upside is likely to be around 1.3450.
The downside will be a level below 1.3300 to test the acceleration of the adjustment.
tactics
The basic principle is to focus on return sales.
A short-term rebound will respond by confirming a stall at higher resistance.
Push-buying should be a limited response after downside support is clear.
trigger
Selling strategies need to be curbed if a clear break above 1.3450 is achieved.
A break below 1.3300 is likely to increase downward pressure.
US indicators and European hourly flows will determine the short-term direction of the day.
override condition
If 1.3480 is breached and established, return selling tactics are negated.
Assumed range needs to be revised if 1.3320 cannot be held steady
The scenario also breaks down if the dollar is overbought due to sudden risk aversion flows.
risk event
US statistics related to personal consumption expenditure.
UK economic indicators and statements from Central Bank officials.
Supply and demand fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing
position management
Lots should be carefully managed, starting with half the standard lot size.
The profit margin should be around 1.3330 to ensure profits, even if they are small.
Stop-losses should be set above 1.3460 to avoid increased risk.
checklist
See if the 1.3300 break is tested
Watch for a break above 1.3450
Understand changes in the outlook for interest rate differentials following the release of US indices
Market summary
The Australian dollar was pushed lower the day before as strong US economic indicators led to dollar buying.
Increased awareness of interest rate differentials amid wavering interest rate cut speculation
Today's new key indicators and weekend rebalancing combine to make the phase more volatile due to supply and demand factors.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around the 0.6550-0.6650 area.
The upside is likely to be around 0.6670.
The lower level below 0.6530 will test the acceleration of the adjustment
tactics
Basic policy is to prioritise return sales.
During the rebound phase, respond by checking for stalls at higher resistance.
Push-buying will be considered on a limited basis after support is confirmed.
trigger
If a clear break above 0.6670, return selling tactics need to be curbed.
A break below 0.6530 is likely to increase downward pressure.
Results of US indicators and rebalancing flows will be the day's turning point.
override condition
If it breaks through 0.6700 and consolidates, the return scenario is negated.
If 0.6550 cannot be maintained and falls below, the tactic will be modified as downside risk will increase.
Scenarios are also invalid in the event of a rapid decline in liquidity.
risk event
US statistics related to personal consumption expenditure.
Impact of the release of Chinese economic indicators on resource prices.
Flow fluctuations associated with weekend rebalancing
position management
Start with half the standard lot and consider increasing or decreasing it after confirming the direction of travel.
Gains should be around 0.6560 to ensure short-term downside.
Stop-losses are set above 0.6680 to avoid increased risk.
checklist
Check for a move to test below 0.6530
Watch for a breach of 0.6670
Understand changes in the outlook for interest rate differentials following the release of US indices
AI postcards: today's market
review
US personal consumption expenditure in August was within expectations and lacked surprises, and the day's trade was ultimately within a small range due to a lack of direction.
summary
US consumption-related indicators showed strength, but in line with market expectations, with limited reaction.
The dollar continued to settle around the mid-149 yen range, as it did not provide enough material to influence speculation on monetary policy.
Positional adjustments prevailed ahead of the weekend, with overall price movements remaining quiet.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session started around 149.70 and attempted a small rise, but was sluggish.
In the European markets, the market temporarily moved up to around 149.90, but the upside was confirmed.
The pair was pushed down to around 149.40 over the New York hours and finally closed at around 149.50.
Background and materials
US personal consumption expenditure results remained strong but in line with market expectations and had limited impact.
The prospect of a rate cut on US monetary policy receded slightly, but not enough to generate new direction.
There were no high-profile economic indicators or policy statements from the Japanese side, and there was only a sense of caution about currency intervention.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 149.40 was recognised as support and no downside was seen.
The upside was restrained by the psychological milestone of 150.00, and the market ended up trading in a range.
In the short term, continued firings around the mid-149 yen range were confirmed.
Technical note (mid-term).
On a daily basis, 150.00 continues to be considered as resistance.
148.80-149.00 is likely to act as a medium-term support zone.
The direction has not solidified and the trend is still holding and no clear trend has formed.
impression
Market participants were reactive to US indices, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing as they did not actively move their positions.
While caution about currency intervention supported the market, the upside remained heavy, linked to US interest rate trends.
Price movements are limited ahead of the week's events and there is a strong sense that the market is waiting for the next material.
trade observations
There were small swings up and down, but lacked clear direction and entry opportunities were limited.
There was room for short-term trading to aim for small gains, but a cautious approach was required to carry over.
Overall, there was an impression that the movement was mainly in line with the weekend position consolidation.
checklist
Watch for a break above 150.00
Confirmation that support around 149.40 is maintained.
Prepare for key US indicators later in the week
review
The market did not react as expected to the US announcement of consumer spending in August, and there were no significant developments from the Eurozone, making for a generally adjustment-oriented day.
summary
US indicators were generally within expectations and did not provide enough of a factor to give momentum to dollar buying
With a dearth of economic announcements in the eurozone, price movements were limited as investors were inclined to wait for the next event.
As a result, the Eurodollar remained range-bound and calm, hovering around 1.1700.
Today's price movements
Tokyo opened at around 1.1670, with only minor movement in the early part of the session.
A test of 1.1700 was seen in the European market, but did not lead to a significant extension.
The pair pushed lower to the 1.1660s over the New York hours before recovering and closing at around 1.1700 at the end of the day.
Background and materials
US personal consumption expenditure in August was in line with expectations and provided reassurance to the market, but had limited impact.
The revised US GDP figure, while firm, was within prior expectations and did not provide a new factor for dollar buying.
No new policy statements or key statistics from the eurozone and lack of market-moving material
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.1660-1.1670 was identified as short-term support.
1.1700 was a psychological milestone, confirming the upward pressure.
During the day, the market continued to move within a small range around this level.
Technical note (mid-term).
The area around 1.1600 is in focus as a medium-term downside support zone.
The area around 1.1750 is likely to be perceived as the next upside resistance.
Lack of direction in the medium term and still holding tone
impression
There is an impression that the overall market remained quiet due to a lack of reaction to US indicators.
Lack of material in the euro area limited trading opportunities and participants were less active.
Markets are increasingly waiting for the next major US index and ECB-related announcements.
trade observations
There was a lack of clear direction and the market was limited to short-term price-taking.
Trading was focused on confirming support and resistance.
The day was marked by holding adjustments, partly due to weekend factors.
checklist
See if you can get above 1.1700
Watch for support at 1.1660 level to be maintained
Ensure preparedness for next week's key US indicators and ECB-related announcements
review
US personal consumption expenditure in August was in line with expectations and the reaction was limited, but the pound was bought and closed slightly higher towards the end of the New York hour.
summary
US indicators showed strength but fell within market expectations and there were no surprises.
No significant material from the UK side and monetary policy uncertainty continued to weigh.
The pound was bought more strongly over the New York hours and closed at around 1.3400.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours opened around 1.3340 and repeated small ups and downs.
In the European market, the price temporarily pushed lower to around 1.3330.
The pair rebounded to around 1.3410 and closed at around 1.3400 as buyers returned to the market over the New York time.
Background and materials
US consumer spending was in line with expectations and had a limited effect on boosting the dollar.
The upward revision of the US GDP revision was supportive of the dollar, but had limited impact on the pound sterling.
There was no new material on monetary policy or public finances from the UK side, and markets watched developments in the US side closely.
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.3330 was recognised as support and supported the downside.
The upside was perceived as a resistance zone between 1.3410 and 1.3420.
During the day, the market bounced back and forth within a range of 1.3340-1.3410.
Technical note (mid-term).
The area around 1.3300 is noted as a medium-term downside support zone.
The area around 1.3450 is considered as the next candidate for resistance.
Lack of direction in the medium term and remaining range-bound
impression
US indicators were in line with expectations and a wait-and-see mood prevailed across the market.
Pound buying in the New York time was more of an adjustment against the backdrop of a lull in the dollar.
Amid material difficulties, markets remain poised for the next event
trade observations
Lack of movement in the early stages of the market made it unsuitable for short-term trading.
There was room for short-term buy entry during the rebound phase in the NY time.
Overall, direction was weak and active trading was restrained due to weekend factors.
checklist
Confirmation of maintaining support for 1.3330.
Watch for a break through resistance around 1.3420.
Prepare for next week's US index and BoE-related announcements
review
The market reaction was limited as US personal consumption expenditure in August was in line with expectations and the market closed in a slight range with a slight break from the previous day's lows in the European hour, followed by a buy-back in the New York hour.
summary
There were no surprises in US indicators and limited dollar-buying opportunities.
There were no new announcements from the Australian side and the market was short of clues.
As a result, the day was directionless, centred around 0.6540.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session opened around 0.6545 and remained in a narrow range.
In the European market, it pushed down to around 0.6520 and hit the previous day's low.
It reversed in the New York hours and recovered the 0.6540 level to close at 0.6540.
Background and materials
US consumer spending was within expectations and had little impact on the market.
The US GDP revision, while firm, had already been factored in, limiting any new movement.
From the Australian side, there was a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the RBA meeting, with no notable developments in monetary policy or economic indicators.
Technical memorandum (short term)
0.6520 acted as support and helped the short-term downside
The upside resistance was around 0.6550 and could not be clearly broken out.
In the short term, they converged within the range of 0.6520-0.6550.
Technical note (mid-term).
The area around 0.6500 is considered as a medium-term downside support zone.
0.6600 is a barrier to the upside as a medium-term resistance level.
In the medium term, the range-bound trend continues and a lack of direction is evident.
impression
Lack of material on the Australian side meant that the market's attention was focused on the US index, but the results were within expectations.
The downward pressure in the European hour was temporary and buying back in the New York hour restored overall stability.
Strong price movements remained adjustment-oriented amidst the next RBA meeting and major US indices.
trade observations
The development was confined to a narrow price range and was not suitable for major trend following.
The main focus was on short-term push-buying and return selling to take small price gaps.
The strategy of waiting for the next event without forcing a position due to material difficulties was advantageous.
checklist
Confirmation that support at 0.6520 is maintained.
Watch closely whether 0.6550 is breached
Prepare for RBA meetings and key US indicators
FX Diary.