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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Agenda |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Apr-Jun Quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP, finalised) [y/y annual rate]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Apr-Jun quarterly GDP personal consumption, finalised [annualised y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Apr-Jun Quarterly core PCE, finalised [y/y, p.a.]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Durable goods orders [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Durable goods orders, excluding transport equipment [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | New unemployment insurance applications for the previous week |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Number of people receiving unemployment insurance continuation for the previous week |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Sales of used homes [annualised number]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Sales of used homes [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
While some members of the BoJ mentioned future interest rate hikes and the Bank of Japan's policy of reducing ETFs, dollar buying prevailed amid shaky US interest rate cut speculation, and the psychological milestone of close to 149 yen was also noted. The previous day, dollar buying prevailed throughout the day, and it remains to be seen whether this trend can be sustained.
The previous day, dollar buying prevailed throughout the day and it remains to be seen to what extent this trend will be sustained. Technically, the market appears to have consolidated lower prices, and it can be said that this is a phase where buying at the pushpoint is being considered.
GBPUSD was conscious of the cautious stance of BoE officials on interest rate cuts as a supportive factor. On the US side, comments from Fed officials shook expectations of an interest rate cut, and the trend continued to favour the dollar. Relative interest rate differentials and the strength of economic indicators continued to influence the direction of the market. Dollar buying prevailed throughout the day before, and it remains to be seen to what extent this trend will be sustained.
AUDUSD was supported by better-than-expected CPI in Australia, which raised awareness of concerns about persistent inflation, which reduced expectations of a rate cut by the RBA and supported the Australian dollar. On the other hand, on the US side, comments from a senior Fed official shook the rate cut speculation and continued the trend of a predominant dollar buy. Technically, the pair was conscious of the 0.6580 area as support to the downside, and it appears that the pair has consolidated below the 0.6580 area, which gives the pair room for a rebound. Dollar buying prevailed on the previous day, and it remains to be seen how far this momentum will continue.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Although adjustments continued until European hours, US economic indicators came in higher than expected, and market expectations of a rate cut receded somewhat. As a result, dollar buying gained the upper hand and the yen was sold off. After the release of the indexes, the yen was even able to break out of the range following the shock of the August jobs report, as it reached the upper ¥149 range.
The currency continued to adjust and move in small movements until European hours, when economic indicators released in the US exceeded expectations and the US dollar was bought by the US dollar as the prospect of an interest rate cut receded. This led to a quick sell-off in the euro, pushing it down to levels in the low to mid 1.17s. Although there were some upside tests during the day, gains were limited and the dollar closed sharply lower, with a clear trend towards a stronger US dollar against the backdrop of rising US interest rates.
Selling was predominant from the European markets and the market hit a new low on the previous day. In addition, economic indicators released in the US exceeded expectations, and the US dollar was bought in a big way as the prospect of an interest rate cut receded. This led to a rapid sell-off in the pound, which traded significantly lower.
The pair continued to adjust around 0.6600 until European hours, when better-than-expected economic indicators released in the US led to a retreat in market expectations of a rate cut. This led to a sharp increase in dollar buying, and the Australian dollar began to sell off. By the end of the day, the Australian dollar was pushed down to around 0.6530, and closed sharply lower, falling sharply from the intraday highs.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The situation is such that the US dollar remains predominantly bought, and the yen approaches 149 yen, as US interest rate cut speculation wavers despite the BoJ commissioner's mention of an interest rate hike and ETF reduction policy being communicated.
Dollar buying prevailed throughout the day and the immediate focus is on the intersection of US monetary policy developments and domestic policy uncertainty.
Assumed range
Assume price movements around 147.80-149.50.
The 149 yen level is perceived as an upside resistance and the lower 147 yen level is the lower boundary.
tactics
The basic stance is one of range rotation.
Flexible use of push-buying at the ¥148 level and return selling at the ¥149 level.
trigger
Buybacks may accelerate above 149.50.
Selling is dominated by a break below 147.80.
Be alert for further volatility during the release of US economic indicators.
override condition
A clear break below 147.50 would negate the upside test scenario.
Conversely, if 150.00 is breached, range tactics may be invalidated and a new phase may be initiated.
risk event
Release of US GDP and PCE deflator.
Bank of Japan-related statements and the outlook for upcoming policy.
Geopolitical risks and sharp fluctuations in stock markets.
position management
Keep the position size to half the normal size.
The profit margin is set at 30-50 pips.
Ensure that losses are taken as early as possible, with a target of 20-30 pips.
checklist
Check US interest rate trends and the degree of revision in interest rate cut expectations.
To understand the market reaction to the BoJ's policy stance and statements by key figures.
Carefully observe reactions at key technical levels.
Market summary
The Eurodollar is in a mixed materials situation, with a decline in German business confidence weighing on the Eurozone PMI, but also a pick-up in the Eurozone PMI.
Dollar buying prevailed amid shaky US interest rate cut speculation, testing below 1.1750.
Assumed range
Assume price movements around 1.1700-1.1850.
The 1.1750 area will continue to be a resistance zone, with the 1.1700s on the downside and the 1.1850s on the upside.
tactics
Basically adopts a stance based on range rotation.
A flexible response is required, considering a push-buy at the 1.1700 level and a return to the 1.1850 area.
trigger
Scenario where buy-backs are likely to strengthen above 1.1860.
Selling pressure may increase below 1.1700
Beware of fluctuations during the release times of US economic indicators and European related statistics.
override condition
A clear break below 1.1670 would negate the range strategy.
Conversely, if 1.1900 is breached, it will be necessary to assume a new upturn.
risk event
US PCE deflator and employment-related indicators.
Eurozone inflation indicators and statements by ECB officials.
Geopolitical risks and sudden stock market fluctuations
position management
Position size is controlled to half the normal size.
Aim for a profit margin of 30-50 pips.
Ensure that losses are taken early, at 20-30 pips.
checklist
To identify changes in US interest rate trends and the prospect of interest rate cuts.
To understand the market reaction to key eurozone indicators and ECB statements.
Careful observation of price movements at the technical levels 1.1700 and 1.1850.
Market summary
The pound dollar is weighed down by falling UK PMIs and fiscal concerns, while BoE officials' cautious stance on interest rate cuts is seen as a supportive factor.
In the US, cautious comments from Fed officials shook expectations of an interest rate cut and the dollar continued to buy predominantly.
Assumed range
Assume price movements around 1.3400-1.3550.
The focus is on the attack and defence around the 1.3450 area, with downside support and upside resistance in mind.
tactics
Adopt a flexible stance based on range rotation
Combine push-backs at the lower end of the range and return sales at the upper end of the range.
trigger
A break above 1.3560 could strengthen the buyback.
A break below 1.3400 would increase selling pressure.
Be alert to volatility during the release of US economic indicators and UK-related statistics.
override condition
A clear drop below 1.3380 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if 1.3600 is breached, range tactics may be invalidated and a new phase may be initiated.
risk event
Publication of UK GDP and inflation-related indicators.
Release of the US PCE deflator and employment statistics.
Renewed concern about the UK fiscal situation and the government bond market.
position management
Keep the position size to half the normal size.
Priority is given to securing solid profits with a profit target of 30-50 pips.
Ensure that losses are taken as early as possible, with a target of 20-30 pips.
checklist
Confirming the statements of key BOE officials and the change in their cautious stance on interest rate cuts.
To understand the market reaction to statements by Fed officials and US interest rate developments.
Careful observation of price movements at the main technical levels 1.3400 and 1.3550
Market summary
Australian CPI exceeded expectations, raising awareness of concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations of an RBA rate cut.
In the US, comments by Fed officials shook expectations of a rate cut and continued the trend of predominant dollar buying.
Assumed range
Assuming a price movement of around 0.6550-0.6680.
The area around 0.6580 is expected to be considered as a downside support and the area before 0.6700 as an upside resistance.
tactics
A basic stance of buying at pushpoints is effective.
Consider buying in small lots as long as 0.6580 can be maintained and consider short-term gains on the upside.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6700 could accelerate the buyback.
Selling pressure will increase if the price falls below 0.6550.
Be alert to volatility during the release of Australian economic indicators and key US data.
override condition
A clear drop below 0.6520 would negate the push-back strategy.
Conversely, if 0.6720 is breached, range tactics will be disabled and a new phase should be envisaged.
risk event
Australian employment figures and retail sales releases.
Publication of the US PCE deflator and employment-related indicators.
Changes in risk aversion due to resource prices and geopolitical factors
position management
Position size is restrained to half the normal size.
Assume a profit margin of 30-40 pips.
Ensure that losses are taken early, based on 20-30 pips.
checklist
Confirming Australian inflation trends and the RBA's policy stance.
Understanding the degree of market incorporation into US monetary policy.
Observe the reaction at the technical levels of 0.6580 and 0.6700.
AI postcards: today's market
review
The adjustment continued until European hours, but US indicators strengthened dollar buying and the dollar rose to the upper ¥149 level.
summary
The US dollar gained the upper hand as strong economic indicators in the USA led to a slight retreat in interest rate cut speculation.
The yen sold off and moved above the range following the August jobs shock.
The market continued to closely monitor developments in US interest rates.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours continued to see small movements around the ¥148 level.
An adjustment phase continued into the European hours, but buying strengthened quickly after the US indices.
The end of the day saw the price remain high in the 149 yen range.
Background and materials
US economic indicators exceeded expectations and led to a retreat in interest rate cut speculation.
Rising long-term US interest rates provided support for the dollar.
The lack of change in Japanese monetary policy also encouraged yen selling.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 148.50 area was recognised as a push and provided short-term support.
149.50-149.80 was noted as upside resistance.
The short-term moving averages were up, indicating a predominantly buying trend.
Technical note (mid-term).
The market broke through the upper limit of the range since August and tested the medium-term upside potential.
On the daily basis, the pair moved above 149.00 and was aware of the milestone 150.00.
On the other hand, it should be noted that this is also a level at which the yen is likely to be bought back.
impression
The strength of US indicators was a major factor in the day's market movements.
Markets remain sensitive to the direction of US monetary policy and interest rate differentials.
The yen continued to depend on the external environment as it lacked its own support.
trade observations
During the post-index surge phase, there was a push to buy.
Volatility increased amid a mix of short-term profit-taking and new buying.
Stop orders on the upside of a range break above the range helped to support the rise.
checklist
Whether the resistance zone of 149.50-150.00 can be breached.
US interest rate trends and what the Fed has to say.
Renewed pressure on the yen due to risk-off factors.
review
The European hour was an adjustment phase, but the euro closed sharply lower as US indicators strengthened the dollar.
summary
US economic indicators exceeded expectations and interest rate cut speculation has receded.
The euro tested its upside potential at times, but the momentum did not last.
The dollar's strength prevailed at the end of the day and the downward trend was clear.
Today's price movements
The pair moved in small movements around the 1.17 level until European hours.
After the release of the US index, dollar buying quickly intensified and fell below the first half of 1.17.
The level remained at a lower level in the last stages of trading.
Background and materials
The US GDP revision and other key indicators have strongly reduced the prospect of a rate cut.
Rising long-term US interest rates supported the dollar.
Economic concerns in the eurozone and energy price volatility weighed on the euro.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The support line near 1.1720 was broken down and downward pressure became conscious.
The upside was restricted as a return level around 1.1800.
The short-term moving average was pointing downwards, indicating a strengthening trend in the dollar.
Technical note (mid-term).
The area around 1.1650 was closely watched as the next downside target.
The area around 1.1870 is perceived as medium-term upside resistance.
The daily trend of decline prevailed, confirming the weakness of the return.
impression
It was a day in which US indicators had a major influence on the direction of the market.
The euro lacked its own support and became more dependent on the external environment.
Markets continue to keep a close eye on US monetary policy and interest rate differentials.
trade observations
Short-term selling prevailed during the post-index plunge.
There was some scattered buying for a return, but it was pushed back.
Participants were inclined towards short-term trading, with an emphasis on risk management.
checklist
Whether support at 1.1650 can be maintained.
US interest rate trends and what Fed officials have said.
Impact of economic indicators and inflation-related data in the euro area.
review
Selling was dominated by European markets and the pound closed significantly weaker as the US dollar was bought after the US indices.
summary
The pound was restrained on the upside by concerns over the UK's fiscal management and bond supply and demand.
US economic indicators exceeded expectations, increasing pressure on the dollar.
As a result, the pound fell below the previous day's low and the downward trend was clear.
Today's price movements
Selling intensified over the European hour and fell below 1.34.
The decline accelerated after the release of the US index and fell to the low 1.33s.
The market remained at a low level at the end of the day and closed significantly lower.
Background and materials
There was widespread caution about the UK's fiscal risks and the supply and demand for government bonds.
Key indicators such as US GDP were a strong factor in buying the dollar.
The trend in favour of the dollar was supported by the prospect of a widening interest rate differential.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The pair fell below support around 1.3400, raising awareness of short-term downside potential.
The return level around 1.3460 restricted the upside.
The short-term moving average was downwards, indicating a downward trend.
Technical note (mid-term).
The area around 1.3300 was noted as a medium-term support level.
The 1.3550-1.3600 area was identified as a resistance zone in the return phase.
On a daily basis, a downward trend prevailed, confirming the weakness of the return.
impression
It was a day of material material from Europe to the US, which led to a sell-off of the pound.
The strength of US indicators influenced the overall currency market and accentuated the strengthening trend of the dollar.
The UK was notably vulnerable against the dollar due to a lack of independent support.
trade observations
Short-term selling prevailed on the downside after the index.
Some attempts to return to the market were made, but the upside was heavy.
The decline was driven by selling accompanied by position adjustments.
checklist
Whether 1.3300 support can be maintained
US interest rate trends and what Fed officials have said
UK fiscal policy and government bond market trends.
review
The Australian dollar continued to adjust around 0.6600 during the European session, but the US index strengthened dollar buying and the Australian dollar closed sharply lower.
summary
US economic indicators exceeded expectations and interest rate cut speculation has receded.
The Australian dollar was sold off as the dollar buying trend strengthened.
The price fell from the intraday highs and lost value to around 0.6530 at the end of the day.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo session continued with a small movement between 0.6600 and 0.6600.
The adjustment continued into the European hour, with limited sense of direction.
It fell sharply after the US index and was pushed down to the 0.6520 level.
Background and materials
US GDP revisions and other indicators exceeded expectations and supported the strengthening of the dollar.
Rising long-term US interest rates supported dollar buying.
Australian inflation indicators showed strength but were pushed into a dollar-led trend.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 0.6600 was identified as a return level.
The area around 0.6530 was noted as a downside area.
The short-term moving average was downwards, indicating a downward trend.
Technical note (mid-term).
The area around 0.6500 was watched as the next level of support.
The area around 0.6670 is considered a resistance zone for the return.
A downward trend prevailed on a daily basis, confirming the weakness of the return.
impression
The strength of the US indicators had an impact on the overall currency markets on the day.
The Australian dollar lacked its own support and followed the dollar-led movement.
Resource prices and developments in the Chinese economy also continued to be influential factors.
trade observations
Short-term selling prevailed during the post-index plunge.
There were some attempts to push the market, but the upside was limited.
Increased volatility and awareness of the importance of risk management.
checklist
Whether 0.6500 support can be maintained
US interest rate trends and what the Fed has to say
Impact of Australian inflation indicators and resource prices.
FX Diary.