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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Sept IFO Corporate Business Confidence Index |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug New home sales [annualised number]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug New home sales [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
The US dollar/yen has lacked a sense of direction amid the trend in long-term US interest rates and the Bank of Japan's awareness of additional interest rate hikes, while caution about foreign exchange intervention remains. The previous day, the pair remained in the upper ¥147 to lower ¥148 range, with small movements in a narrow range throughout the day. The market is waiting for statements from US financial officials and upcoming economic indicators. The market is likely to remain conscious of whether the pair will be able to break above the mid-148 yen level or fall below the mid-147 yen level.
The previous day saw the market move in a very narrow range and lacked a sense of direction. With inflation-related indicators and statements from monetary officials in the US in the spotlight, and concerns of an economic slowdown in the eurozone easily becoming a concern, investors were increasingly awaiting economic indicators from the US and Europe, as speculation regarding the pace of ECB rate cuts and the timing of US rate cuts continued to be a source of concern.
The previous day saw only small movements in a very narrow range. The market continued to wait for material amid concerns about high inflation and economic slowdown in the UK, as well as speculation over the timing of a US interest rate cut. In the UK, PMIs and other economic indicators were weak, making it easy to be aware of concerns about the economy. Meanwhile, in the US, inflation-related data and statements from Fed officials are attracting attention and influencing the trend of the US dollar.
The AUDUSD remained in a very narrow range the previous day, with no sense of direction, while the focus was on speculation over the timing of a US interest rate cut and comments from Fed officials, while the outlook for the Australian economy and the RBA's policy stance remained material. Developments in resource prices and the Chinese economy are also likely to influence the AUDUSD, leaving it open to volatility depending on investor risk sentiment.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Buying of the dollar continued against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates, and was further strengthened by better-than-expected US economic indicators. Overall, it was a day in which the US financial environment and the results of the indicators had a major influence on the direction of the market.
Dollar buying continued against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates and was further boosted by better-than-expected US economic indicators. This was compounded by a weak German business confidence index, which also triggered euro selling. Overall, the combination of weak US financial conditions and European indicators weighed on the euro on the day.
The dollar continued to buy against the backdrop of rising long-term US interest rates, and US economic indicators exceeded expectations, which further boosted the dollar's bid. Overall, it was a day in which the market was led by the results of US interest rates and indicators, but was also mixed with a search for room for a return.
The Australian CPI, released in Tokyo time, exceeded expectations, which led to buying and temporarily lifted the Australian dollar to the 0.6620 level. In New York, the Australian dollar was pushed lower as US economic indicators came in above expectations and further strengthened dollar buying. The result was a day at the mercy of materials, with both the previous day's highs and lows.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
The US dollar was in a small range between the high ¥147s and low ¥148s, with a lack of directional movement.
While there is an awareness of rising long-term US interest rates and the Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hike, intervention warnings are restricting the upside.
There is a strong atmosphere of waiting for material, with attention focused on statements by monetary authorities and economic indicators.
Assumed range
Conscious of the range around 147.50 - 148.60.
Both up and down may be temporarily expanded depending on the material.
The current phase is likely to continue to amplify within the range.
tactics
As it is difficult to get a sense of direction, the main response is to be aware of range rotation.
In the short term, combine buy-backs near support and gains at resistance.
It is important not to over-pull positions until there is a major trend.
trigger
A clear break above 148.60 could be a test to the upside.
A break below 147.50 would be considered a further adjustment.
US economic indicators and statements by monetary authorities are likely to be a source of short-term volatility.
override condition
If the range between 147.50 and 148.60 continues to hold, breakout expectations will recede.
Tactics need to be modified if there is no significant movement after the event passes.
Do not assume too much in one direction and be flexible on the assumption that the range will continue.
risk event
US economic indicators released (e.g. housing and PMI).
Changes in the interest rate outlook as a result of statements by Fed officials.
Whether intervention alert statements are made by the Bank of Japan or the Government.
position management
Range strategies reduce position size and are divided into multiple times.
Interest is frequently implemented at a rate of around 0.20-0.30 yen.
Losses are thorough when there is a clear break below support or resistance.
checklist
Check the linkage between long-term US interest rates and the dollar/yen.
Follow the BOJ's stance and intervention-related statements.
To understand the time and market reaction to the release of key economic indicators.
Market summary
Eurodollar in a very narrow range from the high $1.18s to just before $1.19
Continued awareness of speculation about the pace of ECB rate cuts and the timing of US rate cuts
The direction of the market remained directionless due to a wait-and-see attitude towards economic indicators in the US and Europe.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.1780-1.1920.
Phase where material is needed for a clear break either up or down.
In the short term, reactions are likely to be mainly within a range.
tactics
Appropriate response based on range rotation in view of lack of direction.
Conscious of push-buying near support and return selling near resistance
Emphasis on not pursuing positions too deeply until strong material is available.
trigger
Conscious of a test to the upside if the 1.1920 is clearly exceeded
Beware of further adjustment if below 1.1780.
US inflation-related indicators and statements by Fed officials are short-term volatility factors.
override condition
Break expectations recede if the range between 1.1780 and 1.1920 continues to hold
Need to modify the scenario if there is no sense of direction after the event.
Avoid bias in one direction and be flexible to stay within the range
risk event
Release of US inflation-related indicators and consumer confidence indices.
Statements by ECB Governing Council members and indications on the policy outlook.
Concerns about global economic slowdown and tariff-related reports from the US and Europe.
position management
Position sizes are kept low and spread over several times.
Interest rates are frequently implemented, with a target of around 0.0020-0.0030.
Losses are strictly at clear breaks above and below the range.
checklist
Check the release times of key economic indicators in the US and Europe.
Understanding the tone of ECB and Fed key figures' statements.
To check how the market values the levels of 1.1780 and 1.1920.
Market summary
The pound dollar is in a narrow range in the mid-$1.34s to low $1.35s.
Environment materially affected by high UK inflation and concerns about economic slowdown.
In the US, inflation-related data and statements by Fed officials are in the spotlight and lack direction.
Assumed range
Price movement assumed to be around 1.3450-1.3550
Both up and down need new material to get a clear direction.
Phase likely to remain within a range of reactions in the short term.
tactics
A response based on range rotation is appropriate in view of the lack of direction.
Choose to push back near support and sell back at resistance.
Do not hold a position for long until a major trend has formed
trigger
Conscious of a test to the upside if 1.3550 is clearly exceeded.
Beware of an adjustmental move if below 1.3450.
US inflation-related indicators and UK economic indicators are likely to be short-term triggers.
override condition
If the range between 1.3450 and 1.3550 lasts longer, break expectations recede
Revised scenario if movement is limited after the release of the indicator.
Responding on the basis of continued range continuity, without bias towards one directional expectation.
risk event
US inflation-related indicators and employment figures.
Release of UK PMI and other economic data.
Market reaction to policy statements by Fed and BoE officials.
position management
Keep position sizes small and spread over several times.
Interest rates are frequently implemented, with a target of around 0.0020-0.0030.
Losses are thorough when there is a clear break above or below the range.
checklist
Check the schedule for the release of key economic indicators in the US and the UK.
Understanding the tone of statements by BoE and Fed officials.
To check the market reaction at the levels of 1.3450 and 1.3550.
Market summary
AUD/USD in a very narrow range around the 0.6600 level
Speculation over the timing of US interest rate cuts and statements by Fed officials are a key focus.
The Australian economy and the RBA's policy stance, as well as resource prices and developments in the Chinese economy, are also aspects to be considered.
Assumed range
Range assumed to be around 0.6580-0.6630
Both up and down, break is limited in the absence of new material.
The situation is likely to continue to move in and out of this range in the short term
tactics
A range-rotation-oriented response is effective in view of the lack of directional awareness.
Consider buying on the push near support and selling on the return near resistance.
Priority is given to short-term settlement until a major trend occurs.
trigger
Conscious of a short-term test to the upside if above 0.6630.
Beware of further adjustment if below 0.6580.
US inflation indicators and Australian economic data are likely to trigger volatility.
override condition
Break expectations recede if the range between 0.6580 and 0.6630 continues to hold
Need to modify tactics if there is little movement after the release of an index.
Do not raise expectations too much in one direction and continue to assume range continuation
risk event
Release of US inflation-related indicators and employment-related data.
Australian CPI, PMI and other key economic indicators.
Economic trends in China and changes in resource prices.
position management
Position sizes are kept down and small increments are available.
Interest rates are set at around 0.0020-0.0030.
Losses are thorough when there is a clear break above or below the range.
checklist
Check the release times of key economic indicators in the US and Australia.
Follow what Fed and RBA officials say.
To understand the market reaction at the levels of 0.6580 and 0.6630.
AI postcards: today's market
review
The dollar was predominantly bought on the back of rising long-term US interest rates and positive results from US indicators, temporarily rising to the upper ¥148 level and closing at a higher level.
summary
Tokyo time was dominated by price movements in the mid-147 yen range, lacking a sense of direction.
From European hours onwards, dollar buying strengthened against the backdrop of rising US interest rates and higher stock prices, with the dollar rising to the mid-148 yen level.
The NY time was pushed back to the upside due to sluggish growth in US interest rates.
Today's price movements
The Tokyo market continued to trade in a small range around 147.60.
From European hours, the dollar was bought in tandem with rising US interest rates and rose to around 148.50.
In the New York time, there was a sell-back due to the headway in interest rates, which pushed the market slightly lower from the highs at times.
Background and materials
The rise in the US 10-year bond yield was the main factor supporting the dollar/yen.
US new home sales and other indicators exceeded expectations, increasing dollar buying pressure.
The cautious attitude of Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, has also led to a slight retreat in interest rate cut speculation.
Technical memorandum (short term)
On the upside, the area around 148.50 was perceived as resistance.
On the downside, the support zone was 147.00-147.50, which was supported by buying support.
In the short term, the phase continued to be dominated by range-bound trading.
Technical note (mid-term).
A wider daily range has formed from the low ¥147s to mid ¥148s.
The 200-day moving average is perceived as support to the downside and the medium-term direction is not clear.
Unless there is a major break, the ups and downs may continue in the near term, with interest rate developments as a factor.
impression
It was a day in which statements on US monetary policy and changes in interest rates were directly reflected in the dollar-yen.
The combination of indicator results and interest rates influenced the price movement, which was typically material-driven.
The impact of stock prices and risk appetite also played a role in the direction of the market.
trade observations
Short-term traders were aware of a return to the 148.50 area, and there was some profit-taking.
Push-backs from the ¥147 level remained effective and responses were mainly within a range.
It was difficult to determine the direction of the market, and there was a noticeable avoidance of excessive positions.
checklist
Check US interest rates and bond market trends.
Keep a close watch on future US economic indicators and statements by Fed officials.
Determine the reaction within the 147.00-148.50 range.
review
The euro was pushed lower as the US long-term interest rates rose and US indicators showed strong results, leading to dollar buying.
summary
Rising US interest rates supported the dollar, pushing the eurodollar downwards from around 1.1820.
Weak results in the German business confidence index increased selling pressure on the euro.
The higher-than-expected US economic indicators reinforced the strengthening of the dollar and weighed on the euro.
Today's price movements
The pair was seen testing the 1.1820 area in the early stages of the session.
Selling was dominated by the release of the business confidence index in European hours.
The rate fell below 1.1800 towards the New York time against the backdrop of US interest rate developments.
Background and materials
US 10-year bond yields rose and continued to buy the dollar.
US new home sales and other indicators exceeded expectations, supporting the strengthening of the dollar.
A weak German IFO business sentiment index triggered euro selling.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.1820 was perceived as an upside resistance.
The downside was around 1.1790-1.1800.
In the short term, the range remained within the range linked to interest rate trends.
Technical note (mid-term).
The range boundary strength was confirmed by the failure to exceed 1.1850.
The area around 1.1750 is noted as medium-term support.
The environment remains directionless and interest rates and economic indicators are likely to determine the flow of interest rates.
impression
Whilst the US financial environment has been directing the overall market direction, weak European indicators have overlapped.
The situation confirmed that the euro is likely to come under increasing pressure to return to the market.
Markets were sensitive to US interest rate developments, and the day was punctuated by up and down movements.
trade observations
The phase of the market was likely to be conscious of a return to the 1.1820 area.
Short-term trading was dominated by the attack and defence between 1.1800 and 1.1800.
It was difficult to find a major direction and many trades prioritised profit-taking.
checklist
Check US interest rates and bond market movements.
Weakness in European economic indicators should be monitored closely.
Determine the reaction in the 1.1790-1.1820 range.
review
The pound was pushed lower as the US long-term interest rate rose and US indicators exceeded expectations, leading to dollar buying, but some buying back in the New York market.
summary
The US dollar was bought early on due to awareness of the strength of the US financial environment.
The pound was also hit by a combination of cautious views on the UK economy.
In the New York hour, there was a buying back trend and the market closed slightly lower.
Today's price movements
The London session saw a slow decline from around 1.3520 to around 1.3450.
The dollar continued to strengthen against the backdrop of rising US interest rates.
In the New York market, short-term buy-backs led to some downside.
Background and materials
The rise in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note triggered dollar buying.
US economic indicators exceeded expectations, supporting the dollar's dominance.
Concerns about UK business confidence were also a factor limiting the upward movement of the pound.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.3520 was perceived as an upside resistance.
The trading attack was concentrated around the 1.3450 area, with a lower price point.
In the short term, the swing remained within a range.
Technical note (mid-term).
The pair failed to break above 1.3600, reaffirming its upside potential.
The area around 1.3400 is considered as medium-term support.
The convergence of moving averages continued and the directional trend remained lacklustre.
impression
US interest rates and indicator results were the driving factors in the market.
There was a lack of clarity on the UK side and the situation remained easily swayed by US factors.
It was a day of mixed buying and selling pressure and a lack of direction.
trade observations
The pair was aware of a return to the 1.3520 area, and short-term sellers increased their hands.
Some push-back around 1.3450 confirmed the hardness of the downside.
In the short term, most trading was centred on gains and reversals.
checklist
Continuously monitor US interest rate trends and economic indicators.
Consider trading strategies based on the 1.3450-1.3520 range.
The impact of UK economic indicators and key figures' statements should be closely monitored.
review
The Australian dollar was bid up by the strong Australian CPI result, but the US dollar was bid up by higher US interest rates and positive results from US indicators, and both the previous day's highs and lows were reached.
summary
In Tokyo hours, the Australian dollar was bought in response to Australian indices.
Dollar buying strengthened in European hours on the back of higher US long-term interest rates.
The Australian dollar was pushed lower in the New York hour, driven by an uptick in US indicators.
Today's price movements
It rose to the 0.6620 level in Tokyo hours.
In European time, the dollar was predominantly bought and reversed downwards.
In the NY session, the pair was pushed down to around 0.6580 following the US index.
Background and materials
The Australian CPI exceeded expectations, which has put off speculation of an interest rate cut.
Rising long-term US interest rates provided support for dollar buying.
US new home sales and other economic indicators exceeded expectations, strengthening demand for the dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 0.6620 was perceived as an upside resistance.
The lower boundary was seen around 0.6575, with a short-term attack and defence.
Volatility increased as the previous day's range was extended both up and down.
Technical note (mid-term).
0.6700 is considered as medium-term resistance.
The area around 0.6500 was considered a support zone and a confirmation of the firmness of the market.
Convergence of moving averages continues, with a lack of direction.
impression
The strength of Australian indicators provided temporary support, but US factors took the lead.
The dollar-led development meant that the Australian dollar's return was likely to be limited on the day.
Markets reacted strongly to US interest rates and US indicators, with the Australian factor in relative retreat.
trade observations
A return to the 0.6620 area was noted in the short term.
There were some push-backs around 0.6580.
As the market lacked a sense of direction, short-term trading and profit-taking were noticeable.
checklist
Continue to monitor the results of Australian economic indicators.
Keep a close watch on US interest rates and the US dollar index.
To identify reactions within the range of 0.6575-0.6620.
FX Diary.