Market summary

On the previous day, the market reached a high in Tokyo time, but the push was shallow as selling prevailed from Europe.

Today's environment is likely to continue to be led by overseas developments amid limited liquidity with Japan closed for the day.

The prospect of a US interest rate cut, the BOJ's policy stance and uncertainty over the party leadership election continue to be material considerations.

Assumed range

The price is expected to hover around 146.70-148.20.

The upside is likely to be aware of the 148.20 area as a resistance zone.

On the downside, the area around 146.70 is considered as support.

tactics

Range rotation is the basis in situations where liquidity is likely to be reduced.

In the short term, the company will respond in small increments, keeping an eye on the direction of the overseas hours.

Avoid building an unreasonable position and check the range of adjustment before starting to work.

trigger

Note that a clear break above 148.20 could test further higher.

A break below 146.70 is likely to tilt the trend in favour of the yen.

The timing of US PMIs and statements by key Fed officials may intensify volatility.

override condition

A strong rise above 148.50 would negate the upper limit of the assumed range.

If the decline below 146.40 continues, the downside assumption will have to be revised.

A tactical review is also necessary if the holding is prolonged and direction is extremely poor.

risk event

Key economic indicators such as the US services PMI and durable goods orders.

Suggestions of a revision of the monetary policy stance through statements by key Fed officials.

Reports related to the Japanese party elections and speculation on currency intervention.

position management

Prioritise risk management by keeping position size at half the normal level.

Gains are chopped in small increments of 10-20 pips.

Losses should be set only at levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Confirm price leadership in European and US time due to the holiday in Japan.

Always check the release times of US economic indicators and the market reaction.

Organise and respond to resistance and support levels in advance.

Market summary

The previous day was dominated by buying and the euro held up, but it has not consolidated to the downside and remains unstable.

In the US, speculation over the timing of interest rate cuts continues to make it difficult to determine the direction of the dollar.

ECB maintains status quo, while European consumer confidence is likely to remain weak

Assumed range

Assume price movements mainly around 1.1640-1.1800

The upside is likely to be aware of the 1.1800 area as a resistance zone.

The downside is identified as a support zone around 1.1640.

tactics

Short-term range rotation is the basis of the range rotation.

Prioritise gains in line with small price movements between 1.1700 and 1.1700.

Refrain from building an unreasonable position due to lack of directional clarity.

trigger

A clear break above 1.1800 would likely lead to a stronger buy-back trend.

A break below 1.1640 would likely lead to further euro selling.

Attention will be paid to the release times of the US PMIs and durable goods orders.

override condition

Reject the upper range assumption if the strong rise above 1.1820 continues.

If the decline below 1.1620 continues, the downside assumption will need to be revised.

Tactics also need to be reviewed in cases of prolonged holding and extremely low volume.

risk event

US economic indicator releases and statements by Fed officials.

Data on consumption trends in the euro area and statements by ECB officials.

Press coverage of US tariff policy and risk-averse market reactions.

position management

Position size should be kept to half the normal size and handled with caution.

The profit margin is chopped in small increments of 15-25 pips.

Stop-losses are set only at levels outside the expected range.

checklist

1.Check whether the price holding between 1.1700 will continue.

Always check the time of day and market reaction to the release of US economic indicators.

Organise and respond to levels of upside resistance and downside support in advance.

Market summary

The previous day was dominated by buying, and the pound recovered, but it has not consolidated to the downside and remains unstable.

High inflation and rising public borrowing in the UK are market concerns.

Speculation over the timing of US interest rate cuts and statements from Fed officials are influencing the direction of the dollar.

Assumed range

The basic scenario is for a transition around 1.3350-1.3600.

The upside is considered as a resistance zone around 1.3600-1.3670.

The downside is noted as a support zone around 1.3350.

tactics

Based on range rotation as it is difficult to establish a sense of direction.

Consider returning to the market near the resistance zone and buying at the support zone.

Be prepared to switch policies flexibly in case of a range exit

trigger

A clear break above 1.3670 would likely strengthen the buyback.

A break below 1.3350 would tend to tilt the trend in favour of selling.

US economic indicators and UK-related policy announcements are likely to attract attention

override condition

Reject the upper range assumption if the rise above 1.3700 continues.

If a break below 1.3300 is confirmed, the assumption of downside support needs to be revised.

Assumptions are less accurate when market participation declines and volume falls to an extreme level

risk event

Publication of UK inflation-related statistics and financial position.

Key indicators such as the US services PMI and durable goods orders.

Changes in policy stance as a result of statements by Fed and BoE officials

position management

Respond cautiously with less position size than usual.

The profit margin is chopped in small increments of 15-25 pips.

Losses are set to a limited extent at levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Always check the release schedule of key economic indicators

Organise resistance and support levels in advance.

Prepare a plan for what to do if you go off range.

Market summary

The previous day was in a very narrow range and lacked a sense of direction

Inflation has calmed somewhat in Australia, while the labour market lacks momentum.

In the US, speculation over the timing of interest rate cuts continues to make it difficult to determine the direction of the dollar.

Assumed range

Assume a basic trend of around 0.6530-0.6700

The upside is likely to be aware of the 0.6700 area as a resistance zone.

The downside is noted as a support zone around 0.6530.

tactics

Based on range rotation until a sense of direction is given.

Consider returning to the market at upside resistance and push to the market at downside support.

If a break is confirmed, take a progressive, go-with-the-flow attitude.

trigger

A clear break above 0.6700 would likely lead to a stronger buy-back movement.

Selling pressure is likely to prevail if the price falls below 0.6530

US economic indicators and Australia-related news may trigger volatility

override condition

Continued strong rally above 0.6720 would negate the upper range assumption.

If a fall below 0.6500 is confirmed, the downside assumption needs to be revised.

Tactics are less accurate when volume is extremely low and price movements are scarce.

risk event

Release of key indicators such as the US services PMI and durable goods orders.

Changes in monetary policy stance as a result of statements by Fed officials

Impact of changes in Chinese economic trends and commodity prices

position management

Position sizes should be kept smaller than usual and handled with caution.

The profit margin is chopped in small increments of 15-25 pips.

Stop-losses are set only at levels outside the expected range.

checklist

Organise the upper and lower range levels in advance.

Always check the time of day for the release of US economic indicators.

Take care not to miss the impact of related news from Australia and China.

review

Selling in Europe was preceded by a temporary recovery in New York, but sold off again in the second half of the day, resulting in a strong range feeling throughout the day.

summary

The market is likely to be sluggish before 148 yen, and a return sale is likely to be made.

Buying inserts in the second half of ¥147 and the downward pressure is slow.

Strongly wait-and-see attitude awaiting events, break awaits confirmation

Today's price movements

Softening in early Europe due to predominant dollar selling.

Temporary rebound due to buying back after entering New York.

In the second half of New York, the highs stalled again on the upside.

Background and materials

US interest rates are moving higher on the back of weaker US PMI readings.

Aggressive dollar buying limited as Fed officials convey cautious stance

Domestic awareness is likely to remain wary of interventionism.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Strong awareness of return around 148.00.

Underlying support awareness remains around 147.50.

5-minute to 1-hourly legs are a mixture of return selling and push-buying.

Technical note (mid-term).

Daily range continues with limited direction.

Conscious of the reaction around the 4-hour EMA as a milestone.

Cautious on the upside until confirmation of consolidation above 148.20.

impression

Impression of many short-lived price movements due to material and technical conflicts.

Before an event, positions tend to be lighter and more likely to be whiskers.

Focus on reaction speed while keeping price expectations low.

trade observations

Impression that switching between short-term return and push-buy is more likely to work than waiting for a break

Be aware of spreads and slippage before and after indicators and limit the number of entries.

Interest rates are set shallowly to limit the risk of unexecuted contracts.

checklist

Reconfirmation of Tokyo CPI and US PCE times and forecasts

Observe volume and whiskers at 148.00 and 147.50

Pre-news inspection of execution methods and limit placement.

review

The PMI has been trading in a narrow back-and-forth around 1.18, factoring in the mixed Eurozone PMI and weaker US PMI.

summary

Materials are offset by the dollar's upside weakness and the euro's sluggish growth.

A wait-and-see approach prevails ahead of US inflation indicators later in the week.

Limited directionality and mainly short waves in and out.

Today's price movements

Tokyo opened slightly higher than the previous day's highs.

Europe continues to come and go as it waits for indicators, and the price range gradually reduces.

Converging within a range while buying back in the second half of the New York

Background and materials

Eurozone PMIs generally mixed, with Germany stronger and France weaker.

US PMI slowed from the previous month, weighing on the dollar's upside ahead of interest rates.

Key figures' statements are notably cautious and active follow-up is limited.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Above is a return awareness at 1.1820-1.1840.

Below, awareness of pushback around 1.1780.

Mixed rebound and stall around short-term EMA

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily trend continues to hold, with a box colour of 1.18±.

Momentum near neutral after adjustment from September highs.

impression

Initial reaction immediately after the index is unlikely to continue and likely to revert to traffic

Thin time frames tend to have whiskers and price chasing is more difficult.

trade observations

Impression that in-range contrarianism and shallow gains are more likely to work than waiting for a break

Limit lot size and frequency before and after events to avoid slippage.

Limit prices ensure room to withstand widening spreads.

checklist

Reconfirm times and forecasts for major indicators such as US PCE

Watch for ticks at 1.1820 and 1.1780.

Pre-inspect the execution method and order placement.

review

The downward pressure immediately after the index was limited and remained around 1.35 throughout the day, while factoring in the slowdown in the UK PMI and weakness in the US PMI.

summary

Materials were offsetting each other ahead of interest rates and there was little sense of direction.

Many short waves followed by position adjustments before the event.

Today's price movements

Selling in Europe after UK PMIs temporarily pushed downwards.

Buying back in New York, but the upside is sluggish and there is a small round trip.

Background and materials

UK PMI slowed month-on-month, raising awareness of speculation of a slowdown in growth.

US PMIs also weakened, triggering a return of the dollar to the upside.

Technical memorandum (short term)

4-hour EMA catches up with price, with a mix of return selling and push-buying.

Above, sell awareness in the low 1.35s Below, buy awareness in the low 1.34s

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily trend is range centred with holding continuing.

Medium-term trend still in discernment phase after adjustment from September highs

impression

The initial reaction immediately after the index was difficult to follow and reversal was quick.

Thin volume times tend to produce whiskers and are more difficult to follow.

trade observations

The impression is that it is easier to function in reverse in a range and with shallow gains than to wait for a break.

Prepare for slippage by limiting lot size and frequency before and after indicators.

checklist

Reconfirmation of release times and forecasts of key indicators

Observe the reaction of the 1.35 large and the second half of 1.34 on the ticks.

Check spreads and execution methods before entry.

review

Weakness in the US PMI and a slowdown in the Australian PMI were factored in for a small bounce between 0.6580-0.6620.

summary

Materials are offset by the dollar's upside potential and Australia's sluggish growth.

Strong wait-and-see attitude ahead of the event, with limited price volatility.

Direction awaits discernment, mainly short waves.

Today's price movements

Buying entered after the European entry and lifted it to around the 4-hour EMA.

Upside slows as sellers return to the market towards New York.

Finally, the price closed around 0.6600 and continued to move slightly.

Background and materials

US PMI slowed from the previous month and US interest rates are coming to a head.

Australian PMI shows slowdown in manufacturing and services, restraining growth of the Australian dollar.

Improved Eurozone PMIs and country differences neutralise risk tolerance

Technical memorandum (short term)

The upside is around 0.6620 for a return to the market.

Below, awareness of pushback around 0.6580.

5-minute to 1-hour legs tend to continue to come and go around the EMA.

Technical note (mid-term).

Box consciousness at 0.658-0.666 continues

The trend is slowing down as the 20-day line continues to be attacked in the vicinity of the 20-day line.

Momentum neutral after adjustment from September highs

impression

Impression that one direction is difficult to follow immediately after an indicator and reversal is quick.

Thinly-liquid times of day are more likely to produce whiskers and are more difficult to follow.

trade observations

Impression that in-range contrarianism and shallow gains are more likely to work than aiming for a break

Prepare for slippage by keeping lots and frequency low before and after events.

Limit prices should be margined to a position that can withstand widening spreads.

checklist

Confirmation of the attack and volume at 0.6620 and 0.6580.

Recheck times and forecast values of key indicators.

Check the execution method and slippage settings in advance.