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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | Sept Consumer confidence (preliminary) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Mr Bailey, statement. |
Today's Outlook.
Following the policy rate announcement the previous day, the market lacked new clues after a full cycle. Overall, the market continues to be range-bound and is likely to swing up or down depending on the material.
The previous day saw a limited return, with selling prevailing throughout the day as there was no consolidation to the downside. At present, there is no clear downside and we need to see where support will be found.
The previous day was dominated by selling throughout the day with no underlying consolidations, and returns were limited. At present, no clear support has been identified and it is a phase where we need to carefully assess where lower support will come in.
The previous day was dominated by selling throughout the day with no underlying consolidations, and returns were limited. At present, no clear support has been identified and it is a phase where we need to carefully assess where lower support will come in.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
There was a lack of new material after the previous week's US FOMC meeting, and investors were wary of US interest rates, key Fed officials' statements, and the Bank of Japan's stance and intervention observations. The mood of waiting for risk events continued and it was difficult to get a sense of direction. During Tokyo hours, the pair slightly renewed the previous day's highs, but from European hours, selling prevailed. Returns were limited, and the market was aware of the heaviness of the upside. In the end, the market remained in a very narrow range, with only minor back-and-forth movement.
New material was scarce after the previous week's US FOMC meeting, and there was a sense of a wait for fine-tuning of US interest rates and statements from key Fed officials. In Europe, business confidence indicators and statements from ECB officials supported the euro. Buying came from Europe, and despite a brief push in New York, buying once again prevailed, closing slightly above the previous day's highs.
Despite a lack of new material, sluggish growth in US interest rates restrained the US dollar's upside and supported the pound. Buying came from Europe and was briefly pushed down on entering New York, but was again dominated by buyers. Returns were limited and the pair made small gains to the upside. The buying continued throughout the day and the market closed slightly higher.
The price renewed the previous day's low in Tokyo and tested the downside in Europe and New York, but the selling momentum was weak and the price was pushed back. The market remained directionless, and in the end it was a day of extremely narrow ranges throughout the day.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
After digesting the previous day's policy rate announcement, the market is lacking direction in the absence of new material.
While attention continues to focus on the prospect of a US interest rate cut and statements from Fed officials, the BoJ maintains an accommodative stance.
There remains a sense of caution about currency intervention, and the market remains range-bound as it waits for indicators and statements.
Assumed range
The lower limit is expected to be around 147.20 and the upper limit is expected to be around 148.80.
It may temporarily swing up or down depending on changes in US interest rates and US Treasury yields.
Asian time is likely to see narrow price movements centred around JPY 148.
tactics
The basic principle is based on range rotation, with an eye on buying at the lower ¥147 level and selling back at the upper ¥148 level.
As there is a lack of new material in the short term, a strategy of targeting small price ranges is suitable.
It is safe to keep positions light in view of US economic indicators later in the week.
trigger
The guide to the upside is a clear move above 149.00.
A downside could increase selling pressure below 147.00.
US indicators released between European and New York hours will be a source of short-term volatility.
override condition
If 148.80 is clearly established above, the range assumption will be negated and the pair will move to test the upside.
The range scenario is also broken if the price falls below 147.00 and continues lower.
In the event of a sudden intervention report, the scenario itself is nullified.
risk event
US economic indicators (e.g. housing-related, consumer confidence).
Statement by a senior Fed official.
Foreign exchange-related comments and suggestions of intervention by the Japanese Government and Bank of Japan.
position management
Position size is adjusted to a smaller size based on range tactics.
Take profits as early as 20-30 pips.
Stop-losses are set when the most recent support/resistance is clearly broken.
checklist
Check changes in US interest rates and bond yields.
Check what Bank of Japan and government officials have said.
Risk management in preparation for the release of US economic indicators in the NY time.
Market summary
Selling was dominated throughout the day, with no signs of a firming down the previous day.
Continued awareness of the prospect of a US interest rate cut and statements by Fed officials
ECB's additional easing is receding, and the difference in policy stance is affecting the market.
Assumed range
The lower limit is expected to be around 1.1700 and the upper limit around 1.1825.
The area around 1.1730 is in awareness, but no clear support has been established.
In the short term, volatility may increase in response to movements in US interest rates and the dollar index.
tactics
Currently, the main response is based on a return to the market and an awareness of the heaviness of the upside.
Return phase around 1.1800 has room for consideration of sell entry.
Take profits early after entry due to the absence of support.
trigger
Upward movement may change the trend if 1.1830 is clearly crossed.
A downside is below 1.1700, where selling pressure is likely to increase.
Economic indicators in the European hour and US indicators in the New York hour provide short-term momentum.
override condition
If it consolidates above 1.1830, the return strategy is negated.
The scenario also breaks down if a stable downside formation is confirmed without a test below 1.1700.
Sudden policy statements and interventionist comments invalidate the assumption itself.
risk event
Preliminary Eurozone PMIs and inflation-related indicators.
Fed officials' statements and US housing-related indicators
Comments from government officials suggesting foreign exchange intervention or policy responses.
position management
Position size is adjusted to a smaller size to limit risk.
The profit margin is around 20-30 pips and is fixed earlier.
Stop-losses are set when the expected range is clearly outside the expected range.
checklist
1. watch for the presence of the 1,700 crack.
Check what the ECB and the Fed have said.
Check US interest rate trends and the direction of the dollar index.
Market summary
Selling dominated throughout the day with no downward consolidation on the previous day.
US rate cut speculation and Fed comments underpin the dollar
Conscious of sticky UK inflation and BoE's cautious approach.
Assumed range
Assumed range centred on 1.3450-1.3600.
Below, the target is around 1.3450. Above, the barrier is around 1.3600.
Asian hours are expected to consolidate around 1.3500.
tactics
The basic principle is short-term rotation based on return sales.
Consider light selling on returns around 1.3580-1.3600.
On the downside, buy back thinly on reaction at 1.3460-1.3450.
trigger
Above 1.3610 to the upside, buyers are cautioned against unwinding.
Downside momentum below 1.3450 to be noted.
Indicators in the European hour and interest rate developments in early New York are short-term starting points.
override condition
If the price settles above 1.3610 and continues to rise to a higher level
If the low is not broken below 1.3450 and the low is clear
When policy statements or suggestions of intervention cause sudden changes in liquidity
risk event
UK PMI and employment-related results and fiscal policy headlines.
Fed officials' statements and US housing-related and consumption indicators.
Fluctuations in UK long-term interest rates and deteriorating supply and demand for government bonds.
position management
Transaction size is controlled to 50-70% of normal.
The profit margin is 20-35 pips. Stop-losses are executed by machine when the trigger is exceeded.
Priority is given to hedging existing positions before and after the announcement.
checklist
Attack and defence of 1.3450 and possible break above 1.3610
Direction of UK long-term interest rates and US Treasury yields
Scheduled major indicators and key figures' statements in European time
Market summary
The previous day did not see a firming down and selling was predominant throughout the day, limiting returns.
RBA maintains cautious stance while confirming slowing inflation The US dollar is on relatively firm ground as the US side is expected to cut rates depending on data
The Chinese economy and resource price swings are likely to influence sentiment.
Assumed range
Assumed range centred on 0.6540-0.6680.
Below, the area around 0.6540 is considered as a barrier Above, the area around 0.6680-0.6700 is considered as a barrier.
Asian hours are expected to hover around 0.6600.
tactics
Basically, a short-term, steady response based on range rotation.
Push-buy with reaction at 0.6550-0.6540 and sell back at 0.6680-0.6700.
Keep positions light and avoid one-way chasing before and after events.
trigger
Above 0.6700 to the upside, watch out for accelerated buy-backs.
Downside risk of continued downward pressure below 0.6540 noted.
Australian-related headlines and Chinese indicators Short-term starting point for US interest rate developments in NY time
override condition
If the price settles above 0.6700 and continues to rise higher, the return assumption is broken.
Downward bias recedes if the low is not broken below 0.6540 and the low is clear.
If volatility changes sharply due to unexpected policy statements or suggestions of intervention, the scenario is returned to a clean slate.
risk event
Related to RBA key figures' statements and minutes.
PMI and property news and iron ore prices in China.
US housing indicators and statements by Fed officials.
position management
Transaction size is controlled to 50-70% of normal.
Interest gains are executed in steps of 15 to 30 pips.
Losses are mechanically implemented over the trigger to prevent average costs from deteriorating.
checklist
Attack and defence of 0.6540 and possible break above 0.6700
Directionality of Chinese indices and iron ore futures
Trends in US interest rates and the dollar index.
AI postcards: today's market
review
The market lacked new material after the previous week's US FOMC meeting, with Tokyo slightly above the previous day's highs, but a return sell-off prevailed from Europe, and the market generally moved in and out of a narrow range.
summary
Directionality was limited as the Japanese side awaited US interest rates and statements from Fed officials, while the Japanese side was conscious of the BOJ's stance and interventionist views.
The upside was heavy in the low ¥148s, while the downside was in the low ¥147s, looking for a push.
Today's price movements
After a slightly higher Tokyo time, the sell-off was dominated by the entry into Europe.
In the New York hour, the market was not active as we awaited the indicators, and intraday price fluctuations were limited.
Background and materials
Mixed views on the path of interest rate cuts after the FOMC meeting, with the exchange rate linked to small swings in US interest rates.
On the Japanese side, policy unchanged and caution remained on the headlines of the authorities' statements.
Lack of external shocks and a mood of waiting for events contributed to maintaining the range.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Returns were likely around 148.20, with pushback remaining around 147.70.
Short-term moving averages were flat and oscillators were in and out of neutral territory
Technical note (mid-term).
The resistance in the mid-148 yen range was not clearly crossed, and daily attempts to test the upper end of the range were unsuccessful.
The support zone in the mid-147 yen range was maintained and the upside and downside balance remained close to each other.
impression
Positional adjustments were the main focus, and there appeared to be a predominance of spot trades in spite of the material.
The low liquidity ahead of the event also combined to make it difficult to get a price range.
trade observations
The tactic of chopping in small increments around the limit price was more likely to work, and it was safe to set a shallower price range for the reverse.
Losses were limited to outside the recent highs and lows and position sizes were operated in a restrained manner.
checklist
Check the schedule of US interest rates and key figures' statements.
Pay attention to headlines related to statements by authorities and interventions.
Re-examine liquidity in the respective time zones of Asia, Europe and New York.
review
Buying started in Europe and the market was temporarily pushed down in New York, but buying again prevailed and the market closed slightly above the previous day's highs.
summary
Clues are limited after the passage of the FOMC the week before and the mood remains one of waiting for US interest rates and statements from Fed officials
ECB officials' statements and firmness of European indicators are perceived as support for the euro.
The daily price range was relatively small and the ground was difficult to get a sense of direction.
Today's price movements
Push-buying prevailed through the European hour, and the market continued to test the return of the market.
A slight sell-off in the early part of the New York session due to a small rebound in interest rates was followed by a buy-back.
The close remained high and ended slightly above the previous day's high.
Background and materials
US currency reacts to small swings in US interest rates with mixed views on the path of interest rate cuts after the FOMC
Eurozone is aware of officials' statements and business confidence-related headlines as support for the euro.
Aggressive positioning was limited ahead of major events.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.18 was easily recognised as a return guideline and a milestone on the upside.
The push was aware of the 1.17s and was a candidate for short-term support.
Short-term moving averages were flat and oscillators remained in neutral territory traffic.
Technical note (mid-term).
On the daily basis, the situation remains in a range and the direction is still difficult to determine.
Continued to move within the band of recent highs and lows, and volume and consolidation are needed to confirm a break
On a weekly basis, the balance was maintained between return selling and push-buying.
impression
Flow-driven swings were noticeable as we waited for the event, and the rotation of short-term forces was the main focus.
Tone easily changed with or without headlines, and ups and downs were suppressed by the thickness of actual demand.
It was difficult to run in one direction and buy-backs prevailed towards the close.
trade observations
It was a day when a limit-centred, contrarian, short-term rotation was more likely to work.
The operation of taking profits in shallow increments and limiting losses to outside the most recent milestone was effective.
Position sizes were restrained and new ones were cautious around interest rate headlines.
checklist
Check the schedule of major indicators and key figures' statements for the next working day.
Inspect the board situation around 1.18 and the impact of options-related issues.
Reaffirms the strength of the correlation between the hourly swings in US interest rates and the strength of the correlation.
review
Despite a lack of new material, the sluggish growth in US interest rates restrained the dollar's upward movement, which was temporarily pushed down in New York by buying from Europe, but buying once again prevailed and the dollar closed slightly higher.
summary
Positive direction was limited as the market awaited statements from key US figures while being aware of the stickiness of UK inflation and the prospect of BoE remaining unchanged.
Fiscal headlines remained alarming, while sluggish dollar growth supported the pound.
The market remained in a range during the day and maintained a return trend towards the end of the day.
Today's price movements
The market was dominated by buyers towards the European time, with a notable recovery to the 1.3500 area.
Pushed by a small rebound in interest rates early in the New York session, but the downside was limited and the buyers returned to the market.
The intraday range was generally 1.3450-1.3520 and remained higher at the end of the day.
Background and materials
US interest rates remained in a mood of waiting for clues, with only minor swings in US interest rates after the FOMC passed the previous week.
On the UK side, inflation remained high and the BoE's cautious stance was recognised, and the prospect of significant early easing receded.
Concerns about fiscal and long-term interest rate trends restrained the upside, while real demand buying supported the downside.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.3520 was perceived as resistance to the upside and around 1.3450 as a push point.
1.3500 acted as a short-term pivot and was prone to vertical rotation.
Short-term moving averages were flat and oscillators were mainly in neutral territory.
Technical note (mid-term).
The market continues to hover within a wide range of 1.3400-1.3600 and continues to move back and forth between the upper and lower limits.
The daily return highs have a small cut-off range and have not led to a clear trend formation.
In-range assessment was seen as appropriate unless there was confirmation of an above-range breakout accompanied by an increase in volume
impression
The price movement was slow during the hours when the market was flow-driven and there was a noticeable wait-and-see attitude and waiting for key figures to speak.
While led by buy-backs, it was difficult to run in one direction, which was typical of the pre-event climate.
trade observations
The range rotation centred on the limit price was effective and the operation of chopping profits shallowly worked.
Losses were limited to the outside of the most recent section, such as above 1.3520 and below 1.3450, and size was restrained.
checklist
Reconfirm the times of major US and UK indices and key figures' statements for the next working day.
Check the board and option-related due dates and strikes in the vicinity of 1.3500
Inspect the direction and strength of correlation between UK and US long-term interest rates.
review
After hitting the previous day's low in Tokyo, momentum was weak and the range remained narrow throughout the day, despite some downside testing in Europe and New York.
summary
The Australian dollar lacked direction with US interest rates only slightly swinging past the FOMC the week before and the dollar's strength and weakness unclear.
No positive trend formation was seen as the RBA's cautious stance and the wait to see the Chinese economy and resource prices continued.
The day was dominated by traffic, with a slow return and no sustained rush sales.
Today's price movements
The downward pressure was preceded by a drop below the previous day's low in Tokyo time, but follow-up was limited.
The price range converged around the 0.66 area, with a small return each time the price tested lower in Europe-New York.
Flows intersected at different times of the day, making it difficult to run in one direction.
Background and materials
US interest rates were directionless and the dollar tended to be sluggish ahead of key US figures and indicators.
New material was scarce as the RBA's stance was cautious and it was predominantly waiting for confirmation of Australian indicators.
Headlines related to China and iron ore prices were likely to influence sentiment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 0.6600 was considered as a pivot and the upside was likely to return around 0.6620.
On the downside, the pushback remained around 0.6580, and even if it broke, it was slow to follow and a rebound was easy to enter.
Short-term oscillators remained in neutral territory and trend indicators were flat.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily return highs are cutting down, while a support zone in the low 0.65s is being considered and is highly range-bound.
The direction of the moving averages flattened out and the direction remained uncertain
A clear break judgement required an established closing price base and accompanying volume.
impression
The combination of material difficulties and waiting for events made it difficult to get a price range, and the headlines were noticeably shaken up by small swings.
The impression was that intermittent arbitrage and real demand flows held back the ups and downs and prevented trend formation.
trade observations
It was easy to function in a reverse-oriented range rotation, and an operation in which gains were chopped shallowly was effective.
Stops were limited to the outside of the most recent swing and size was restricted to 50-70% of normal.
Break targeting was entered by clarifying the conditions in advance and focusing on the time of day and liquidity.
checklist
Hourly swings in US interest rates and the direction of the dollar index.
Schedule of RBA key figures and Australian indices
China-related headlines and iron ore futures
FX Diary.