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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Aug National Consumer Price Index (CPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Aug National Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Aug National Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food and energy) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting, policy rate announcement afterwards. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Aug Retail sales (excl. cars) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Aug Retail sales (excl. cars) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Aug Retail sales [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Aug Retail sales [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇨🇦 Canada | ★ | July Retail sales [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇨🇦 Canada | ★ | July Retail sales (excl. cars) [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇯🇵 Japan | Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, regular press conference. |
Today's Outlook.
The market is again lacking a sense of direction after significant buying the previous day. The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its policy rate today, but the market expects it to remain unchanged and without any surprises, it is difficult to get a clear sense of direction. In the US, a cautious stance has been shown after the rate cut, and the US dollar is expected to continue to be aware of its resilience. Also, attention should be paid to rebalancing moves ahead of the weekend today.
The market has been slightly lower the previous day and continues to lack a sense of direction. Technically, the market is aware of the long-term upward direction, but it is necessary to consolidate lower prices. Today's rebalancing ahead of the weekend may also affect the market, so caution is required.
Although the market was significantly lower the day before, the level of the market is at a point where it is more likely to be aware of the pushback. The Bank of England has slowed the pace of quantitative tightening while leaving policy rates unchanged, and markets are focusing on the future of monetary policy. With inflation remaining high and the divergence of internal policy decisions in mind, the technical picture is shaped to confirm the firmness of the downside once the market is aware of the situation. While we are aware of the long-term upward direction, we need to pay attention to the flows from the weekend rebalancing.
Although the market weakened significantly on the previous day, the level of the market is at a point where it is easy to consider buying at the push of the dollar. Weak employment data in Australia continues to be a concern, while in the US, a cautious stance is being shown after the rate cut, providing a backdrop of resilience in the dollar. Technically, the market needs to confirm the firmness of the downside once and carefully assess at what level buying can begin. While keeping the long-term upward direction in mind, attention should also be paid to the impact of the rebalancing ahead of the weekend today.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
Although the Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged, the market perceived the unchanged rate as somewhat dovish, as several Bank of Japan board members insisted on a rate hike, and the yen was predominantly bought in the early stages. In the European markets, dollar buying strengthened and the pair briefly tested the previous day's high level, but failed to break above it clearly, and in the New York session, the buying momentum was not sustained and the pair was pushed back again as the reaction to the US interest rate trend and other materials weakened.
Selling in the European markets continued to dominate, with a gradual test of the downside, and although a slight renewal of the previous day's lows was made in New York, the decline did not continue and the rebound was limited.
Selling of the pound was dominated by a growing awareness of the UK's widening budget deficit, plus the view that high inflation is narrowing the scope for interest rate cuts. Selling pressure intensified in European markets, and the rebound was limited in New York hours as investors became aware of the resilience of the US dollar. In the end, the selling trend remained dominant throughout the day.
During Tokyo hours, the market tested the downward direction, falling below the previous day's low. In the European market, there were temporary buy-backs, but the rebound was short-lived, and by the New York time, selling was again dominant and the market closed at an intraday low.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
Lack of direction after significant buying the day before, and a wait-and-see attitude today ahead of the BoJ meeting
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around 147.50-149.00.
To exit either up or down would require Bank of Japan policy and US indicators.
tactics
Basic policy is to focus on range rotation.
In a downside test, use support around 147.50 as a candidate for a push, and be aware of a return to the 148.80-149.00 area.
trigger
An upside is likely to trigger stop-buying above 149.20.
A downside could be below 147.30, which could increase short-term selling pressure.
Bank of Japan policy announcements and Governor Kuroda's press conference (*assumed key figures' statements on the day) are likely to trigger volatility.
override condition
Range strategies are likely to be invalidated if a clear break above 150.00 is established.
Should also be reviewed if the price falls below 147.00 and the downtrend strengthens.
risk event
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting and Statement, with reference to ETFs and asset sale policies.
US economic indicators released (employment-related, regional Fed indexes, etc.)
Changes in market risk perceptions due to statements by key figures in major countries
position management
Keep position size at half the normal level and prepare for the outcome of the BoJ meeting.
The profit target is set at 20-40 pips and the stop-loss is set 10-20 pips outside the recent high and low.
After the announcement, adjust positions flexibly according to price movements to limit risk.
checklist
Confirmation of support holding around 147.50.
Be aware of upside resistance around 149.00.
Be prepared for a change in tone in statements and statements after the BoJ meeting.
Market summary
The previous day was slightly weaker and remained directionless, with the Eurodollar continuing to search for a range
Assumed range
Assume price movements around 1.1750-1.1850.
On the downside, support around 1.1750 will be considered, and on the upside, the resistance zone will be around 1.1850.
tactics
The basic policy is to buy at the push point and carefully consider entry while confirming the support zone.
Take a flexible approach to prepare for short-term price movements, based on weekend rebalancing factors
trigger
The upside is above 1.1860, where buying momentum is likely to strengthen.
A downside below 1.1740 is likely to attract short-term selling pressure.
Volatile factors in the release of indicators and statements by key figures in European and US time
override condition
A clear break below 1.1700 is likely to negate the push-back strategy.
Even if the rise above 1.1900 is established, the range assumption is broken and should be reviewed.
risk event
Eurozone consumer confidence and business confidence-related indicators.
US employment, regional economic indicators and other factors influencing the strength or weakness of the dollar
Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing
position management
Position sizes should be more conservative than usual and prepared for sudden fluctuations.
The profit target is 20-40 pips and the stop-loss is 10-20 pips outside the recent high and low.
Cautious about holding positions in view of weekend factors
checklist
To see if the support around 1.1750 can hold.
Keep a close watch on the ability to break through resistance around 1.1850.
Assessing the impact of weekend rebalancing on flows.
Market summary
Although the market fell sharply on the previous day, it is easy to be aware of the pushback in terms of levels, and the focus in the short term is on confirming the lower price.
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 1.3500-1.3650
The downside is likely to be around 1.3500 and the upside around 1.3650.
tactics
The basic policy is to prioritise buying at the pushpoint, while taking small profit-taking steps if the momentum of the return is slow.
A short-term price action is desirable, based on fluctuations caused by weekend factors.
trigger
A clear break above 1.3660 would likely lead to an acceleration of buybacks.
A break below 1.3490 would increase downside pressure and a break below support would need to be confirmed.
Key figures' statements and US index releases in the European hour are likely to trigger volatility
override condition
Push-back strategies are likely to be negated if the downward trend takes hold with a clear break below 1.3450
Conversely, if the rise above 1.3700 is sustained, the range strategy should also be reviewed.
risk event
Additional reports on Bank of England officials' statements and monetary policy.
Publication of UK inflation-related data and business confidence indicators.
Dollar-driven price movements due to the results of US economic indicators
position management
Keep position size to half the normal level and prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations.
Set gains in steps of 20-40 pips and stop-losses outside the recent lows and highs.
Consider weekend rebalancing and be cautious with carried positions
checklist
1.3500 to ensure that support is maintained around 3,500.
Watch for a break through the upside resistance around 1.3650.
Assessing the impact of weekend rebalancing on flows.
Market summary
The market continues to search for lower prices after the previous day's sharp decline, and the environment is conducive to considering push-buying from a level perspective.
Weak Australian employment data weighs, while the US side remains cautious after the rate cut and is aware of the dollar's resilience
Short-term swings are likely to occur due to flows caused by weekend factors, and beware of uneven volatility at different times of the day.
Assumed range
Assumed to hover around 0.6580-0.6680
The downside is likely to be aware of defensive buying around 0.6600, while the upside is likely to see a return at 0.6660-0.6680.
A break with new material and volume is needed to exit the range.
tactics
Basis is to buy on the push, prioritising profit-taking on shallow returns and emphasising rotation.
Split entry after confirming a downside in the 0.6600-0.6620 band, size suppression before the indicator.
Use short-term sell-backs when there is a clear upward stall, and avoid one-sided selling.
trigger
The upside is likely to be above 0.6680, where accelerated buy-backs are likely to be perceived.
Downside is below 0.6580, where stop selling is likely to spill over.
Entering Europe and early New York, watch for increased volume before and after the release of US indices.
override condition
Withdraw the push-back scenario if the price falls clearly below 0.6550 and the decline is entrenched.
Reassess range assumption and re-evaluate upside scenario if the price is established above the 0.6700 level.
If a long whisker appears at the first shot of an indicator, consider the signal unreliable and refrain from following it.
risk event
Headlines related to Australia and China, and sudden changes in resource prices.
Data on US employment, housing, regional Fed indexes and other data that influence demand for dollars.
Bias in flows due to weekend rebalancing and option cuts
position management
Position size half the normal size, further reduced just before the event
Profit taking is executed in steps of 20-40 pips, with stop-losses 10-20 pips outside the recent high and low.
Always place a stop loss in case of sudden changes immediately after an announcement and manage on the assumption that slippage will occur.
checklist
Confirmation of continued buying support around 0.6600.
To confirm the strength of the return pressure at 0.6660-0.6680.
Do not get caught in the one-way bias caused by weekend flows.
AI postcards: today's market
review
The yen was bought in response to the BOJ's decision to leave the yen unchanged, but the dollar was bought in Europe and tested higher, before stalling in New York.
summary
In the early stages, the yen was pushed into the low 147 yen range by yen buyers.
The dollar was bought back into the market and tested the yen 148 area towards the end of the European hour.
In New York, the market was unable to break through the upper levels and was pushed back again, resulting in a lack of direction.
Today's price movements
The high was around 148.28 and the low around 147.19, with an intraday amplitude of around 1 yen.
The yen was predominantly strong in Tokyo, the dollar was bought in Europe, and then stalled in New York.
The closing price returned to the 147.90s, close to the opening price, leaving the impression of a back-and-forth market.
Background and materials
The BoJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%, but it was noted that two board members argued for a rate hike.
The market perceived the deferral as somewhat dovish and temporarily tilted towards buying the yen.
Interest in US interest rate levels and economic indicators also persisted, supporting the resilience of the dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 147.20 acted as downside support and held the recent lows.
The area around 148.20-148.30 was an upside resistance and could not be clearly broken out.
Price movements were range-bound during the day, with limited short-term direction.
Technical note (mid-term).
The range between the high ¥146s and low ¥148s continues, with a medium-term holding in mind.
On a daily basis, the area around the 20-day moving average is considered as support, making it difficult to establish a sense of direction.
The ongoing battle at the high end of the market, which has been ongoing since late August, continues, and there is a wait-and-see attitude towards materials.
impression
The market reaction immediately after the policy event was calm and no major trends developed.
The presence of negative votes made them aware of a future change of stance, but did not lead to an immediate change of direction.
The dollar continues to hold its ground against the US-Japan interest rate differential and the policy outlook.
trade observations
There were some short-term ups and downs tests, but the price movements were difficult, eventually converging into a range.
Neither the highs nor the lows were followed by digging lows, and there were many phases for scalping.
The impression is that contrarianism, utilising support and resistance, worked better than aiming for a clear break.
checklist
Can support around 147.20 be maintained?
Is a break above 148.30 possible?
Continued focus on US interest rate developments and the BOJ's policy stance.
review
Selling was dominated in Europe, with a slight drop to the previous day's low in New York, but the decline did not continue and the rebound was limited.
summary
The euro was sold in the early stages and the dollar's strength prevailed.
Temporarily fell below the previous day's low, but the fall did not accelerate and stalled.
The end of the day was marked by a return to a range and a lack of direction.
Today's price movements
The high was around 1.1790 and the low around 1.1729.
Selling intensified in the European markets, with an awareness of downward pressure.
It fell below the previous day's low in the New York hour, but subsequently recovered to close at 1.1740.
Background and materials
Strong US economic indicators supported the dollar.
In Europe, fiscal and political uncertainty weighed on the euro.
Markets remain aware of the differences between the Fed's and ECB's policy stances
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.1730 worked as a downside support.
Failed to break through the upside resistance around 1.1790.
The price range during the day was mainly range trading within a 60-70 pips range.
Technical note (mid-term).
The 1.1700-1.1800 range is in awareness.
Continued to hover around the 20-day moving average with little sense of direction
Medium-term upside remains after the return highs since August have not been exceeded.
impression
Both the European hour sell-off and the NY hour test of the downside lacked momentum.
Movements in response to materials were limited and did not lead to major trend formation.
The eurodollar remains in a holding pattern.
trade observations
Forward movement aimed at the previous day's low did not continue and the price range was limited.
The main focus was on targeting small gains on the reverse side of the market.
Impression that short-term price-taking worked better than waiting for a break
checklist
Will support for 1.1730 be maintained?
Availability of resistance breakthrough above 1.1790
Continued focus on US interest rate developments and ECB policy outlook
review
Selling started in Europe, hitting the previous day's low, and selling continued to dominate until late in New York.
summary
Selling of the pound prevailed due to awareness of the widening UK budget deficit and high inflation.
The downside accelerated in the European hour and the rebound was limited in New York.
It failed to recover until the end of the day and closed at a low point.
Today's price movements
The high was around 1.3559 and the low around 1.3462.
Selling in the European markets continued to test the downwards direction as selling intensified.
The dollar was also perceived to be firm in New York and closed around 1.3470.
Background and materials
Increased government borrowing in the UK has increased fiscal uncertainty.
Inflation remained high at 3.8%, narrowing the scope for interest rate cuts.
Markets were aware that the Bank of England was cautious about cutting interest rates further
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 1.3460 level was temporarily perceived as a downside support.
Failed to break through due to the upside being restrained at around 1.3550.
A downward bias prevailed during the day.
Technical note (mid-term).
The range is between 1.3450 and 1.3600.
Medium-term upside remains below the 50-day moving average
The adjustment phase starting from the August highs is continuing.
impression
A day of easy selling for the pound, with awareness of UK-specific material
The rebound phase, combined with the strength of the dollar, was short and limited.
There was a lack of direction as the market continued to test the lower limit of the holding.
trade observations
It was a day when selling to break the previous day's low worked.
Short-term buying was not extended due to the predominant strategy of selling returns.
Price differentials were generated, but trend continuity was poor and it was important to identify gains.
checklist
Can the lower price near 1.3460 be maintained?
Can resistance above 1.3550 be broken?
Focus on UK fiscal developments and changes in BoE policy stance
review
The price fell below the previous day's low in Tokyo and recovered briefly in Europe, but sold off again in New York and closed at a new low.
summary
Weak Australian employment figures and concerns about the Chinese economy weighed in.
There was a small buy-back in the European hour, but not enough to change the flow.
In New York, selling remained dominant at the end of the day, partly due to the dollar's firmness.
Today's price movements
The high was around 0.6621 and the low around 0.6585.
A downward test of the previous day's lows was seen during the Tokyo time
The market closed around 0.6590 at the end of the day and fell on an intraday basis.
Background and materials
Australian employment figures were lower than expected, a negative factor for the Australian dollar.
US interest rate outlook supported the dollar and weakened the Australian dollar relative to the US dollar.
Concerns over slowing Chinese demand weighed on the Australian currency, which is a resource-exporting country.
Technical memorandum (short term)
0.6580-0.6590 was identified as short-term downside support.
The rebound was restrained with the area around 0.6620 acting as an upside resistance.
Downward pressure continued in the short term
Technical note (mid-term).
The range of 0.6550-0.6650 is in awareness.
The adjustment trend continued below the 20-day moving average.
Notable upward pressure as a result of failure to exceed the return highs since July
impression
The Australian dollar remained susceptible to selling in a straightforward reaction in line with the material.
There was a temporary buy-back, but it was not sustainable.
A weak day for the Australian dollar, with support on the US dollar side.
trade observations
Moves to target the previous day's lows were more likely to work.
Return strategies prevailed and short-term buying had limited margins.
Intraday volatility was not great and short-term contrarianism was difficult.
checklist
Will the downside around 0.6580 be maintained?
Can the market break through the upside resistance above 0.6620?
Focus on Australian economic indicators and the impact of China-related developments.
FX Diary.