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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | July Machinery orders [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | July Machinery orders [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | Aug New jobs |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | Aug Unemployment rate |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★★ | Bank of England (BoE, British Central Bank) interest rate announcement |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★★ | Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Agenda |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | New unemployment insurance applications for the previous week |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Number of people receiving unemployment insurance continuation for the previous week |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July Investment in US securities (excluding short-term bonds) |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July Investment in US securities |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), statement. |
Today's Outlook.
The previous day's FOMC meeting has run its course, and on the material side, the Fed's post-rate cut guidance continues to be the focus of attention. While fluctuations in long-term US interest rates and the prospect of a narrowing interest rate differential weigh on the dollar, it is difficult to see any significant sense of direction ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy rate announcement the following day. On the previous day, dollar selling temporarily intensified and fell below the August lows, but subsequently bought back in and left a lower whisker. As a result, the market has remained within a range and is continuing to struggle.
The dollar continued the trend of a temporary sell-off after the previous day's FOMC meeting, but was subsequently pushed back from its highs by buyers; while the Fed's rate cut announcement was factored into the market, the statement showed caution in its future policy operations, providing support for the dollar. In the euro area, there are signs of slowing inflation and improving business confidence, but the impact on monetary policy is widely seen as limited. As a result, the pair formed a long shadow line with a long upper whisker from the highs, and there is a conscious possibility that the pair may enter an adjustment phase.
Dollar selling following the previous day's FOMC meeting has run its course, and the content of the guidance is still seen as a supportive factor for the dollar following the Fed's rate cut announcement. The Bank of England's policy rate announcement is due today, and it is widely expected that the BoE will remain cautious about rate cuts. On the material side, it is difficult to get a sense of direction due to a mixture of dollar buying pressure and factors for a stronger pound. The previous day's long shadowy line with a long upper whisker has made the market wary of a short-term adjustment phase.
Dollar selling following the FOMC rate cut announcement the previous day has run its course, and the subsequent buying back has dampened the upward momentum. On the previous day, the pair fell back after testing the 0.6700 area and formed a shadow line with long upper whiskers, raising awareness of the possibility that the pair may enter an adjustment phase once it has come off its highs.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
While the US Federal Reserve remained cautious after the rate cut, the yen was sold against the backdrop of weak indicators such as Japanese machinery orders. In the European market, the yen continued to hover around 147 yen, but the momentum of dollar buying increased during the New York session and temporarily hit the 148 yen level. Thereafter, the upward movement slowed down and the pair closed at the high end of the range. Overall, the day was dominated by a stronger US dollar and weaker yen, as investors became aware of the difference in policy stances between the US and Japan.
The euro was predominantly bought through the European hours, but the dollar was clearly stronger in the New York hours. At the end of the day, the dollar closed around 1.1789, only slightly lower than the previous day. Overall, it was a day of mixed policy stances and strong and weak economic indicators, and a day of searching for a sense of direction.
The market showed resilience towards European hours. The Bank of England's decision to leave policy rates unchanged raised concerns about the impact on markets, but the announcement of a slowdown in quantitative austerity failed to change the direction and limited the materiality view; in the New York hours, the Pound was forced lower by the strength of US economic indicators and a stronger US Dollar buying trend. The pair closed at around 1.3555 at the end of the day, a slightly larger decline than the previous day and a significant depreciation from the highs.
The session started amid a labour market weakness after an unexpected decline in the Australian jobs report. The Australian dollar was sold during the Tokyo session, but was bought during the European session and rallied, while the dollar was bought during the New York session. As a result, the Australian dollar was pushed lower and closed the day lower than the previous day.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
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session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
Price movements following the previous day's FOMC meeting have run their course, and the situation remains range-bound due to the Fed's post-rate cut guidance and wait-and-see ahead of the BoJ meeting.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 146.20-147.80.
The lower price is expected to be aware of the level of the August low, while the upper price is expected to be a resistance zone in the upper 147 yen range.
tactics
Basic policy of range rotation in the absence of a sense of direction
Be flexible, combining push-buying at approaching lows and return selling at higher prices.
trigger
A clear break above 147.80 would be the phase to be aware of a test to the upside.
A break below 146.20 could strengthen the downward bias.
Developments in US economic indicators and long-term US interest rates will also be watched as short-term triggers.
override condition
Range assumption is negated if the decline accelerates well below 146.20
Conversely, a clear break above 148.00 is considered a breakthrough of the upper resistance zone.
risk event
BOJ policy rate announcement and Governor's press conference
US economic indicators (e.g. new unemployment insurance claims, housing-related data)
Fluctuations in long-term US interest rates and stock markets.
position management
Position size should be half of normal to prepare for event risk.
Prioritise small gains of around 20-30 pips and focus on securing reliable profits within the range.
Set stop-losses based on levels outside the expected range and ensure risk limitation.
checklist
To see if support around 146.20 holds.
Keep a close watch on whether the resistance zone around 147.80 can be breached.
Assessing the impact of the BoJ meeting and US interest rate developments on market sentiment.
Market summary
Eurodollar temporarily rose after the previous day's FOMC meeting, but fell back due to dollar buy-backs, and the situation entered an adjustment phase from the highs.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.1760-1.1875.
Support on the downside near 1.1760 and resistance on the upside near 1.1875-1.1900.
tactics
In the short term, use push-buy and sell back based on range rotation.
Be prepared for volatile price movements due to the passage of events and keep positions light.
trigger
Be aware that a clear break above 1.1900 could accelerate the upside test.
A break below 1.1760 would lead to more adjustment and increased selling pressure.
US economic indicators and Eurozone data will influence short-term direction.
override condition
Range assumption is negated if the price continues to fall below 1.1760
Conversely, if the 1.1900 level is clearly breached, the end of the adjustment phase is deemed to be over.
risk event
Consumer price index (CPI) and business confidence index in the euro area.
US data on new unemployment insurance claims and housing-related data.
Statements and guidance changes by key central bank officials
position management
Position size should be kept to half the standard to prepare for event risk.
Profit taking should be in small increments of 20-30 pips to ensure profitability.
Losses are clearly set based on levels outside the expected range.
checklist
Ensure that 1.1760 support can be maintained.
Keep a close watch on whether the resistance zone between 1.1875 and 1.1900 can be breached.
Assessing the impact of US and European index releases on the dollar and the euro.
Market summary
Sterling lacks direction as post-FOMC dollar sell-off runs its course and post-rate cut guidance provides support for the dollar
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.3580-1.3680.
Support on the downside near 1.3580 and resistance on the upside near 1.3660-1.3680.
tactics
In the short term, range rotation is the basis for a mix of push-buying and return selling.
Maintain light position sizes in view of event risk.
trigger
A clear break above 1.3680 would be a conscious test of the upward direction.
A break below 1.3580 could intensify the adjustment phase.
BoE policy rate announcement and statement content will determine short-term direction
override condition
Range assumption is negated if the price continues to fall below 1.3580.
Conversely, a break above 1.3700 is considered the end of the short-term adjustment phase.
risk event
Bank of England policy rate announcement and Governor's statement
US economic indicators (e.g. new unemployment insurance claims and housing-related data)
Interest rate differentials and stock market trends that influence market sentiment.
position management
Keep positions to half the normal level and be prepared for sudden price movements.
Focus on small gains of around 20-30 pips to ensure profitability.
Clearly set stop-losses at levels outside the expected range to limit risk.
checklist
Check to see if support around 1.3580 holds.
Keep a close watch on whether the resistance zone between 1.3660 and 1.3680 can be breached.
To assess market reactions and US interest rate developments following the BoE announcement.
Market summary
Dollar sales following the FOMC rate cut announcement have run their course, and the Australian dollar's gains have been restrained by buying back and falling back from its highs.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 0.6630-0.6700.
Support on the downside near 0.6630 and resistance on the upside near 0.6700.
tactics
In the short term, a flexible combination of push-buy and sell-back based on range rotation.
Cautious on the upside in view of the shadow line at the highs, focusing on a rebound at the lows.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6700 would make the market aware of a phase where buying pressure would prevail.
A break below 0.6630 could increase the adjustment tone and increase downward pressure.
Australian employment-related data and US economic indicators will determine short-term direction.
override condition
Range assumption is negated if the price continues to fall below 0.6630
Conversely, if it settles above 0.6720, the adjustment phase is considered to be over.
risk event
Australian employment statistics and consumption-related indicators.
US data on new unemployment insurance claims and housing-related data.
Statements by Fed officials and sudden changes in market sentiment
position management
Keep position size to half the normal level and prepare for event risk.
The profit margin should be around 20 to 30 pips to ensure a small and steady build-up of earnings.
Losses are set outside the expected range to clearly limit risk.
checklist
Ensure that support for 0.6630 is maintained.
Watch for a breakthrough of the 0.6700-0.6720 resistance zone.
Assessing the impact of Australian indices and US interest rate trends on the market.
AI postcards: today's market
review
The yen was sold off against a backdrop of weak Japanese indicators and a cautious attitude even after the US interest rate cut, rising to the ¥148 level in New York.
summary
During the day, the dollar continued to hover in the low 147 yen range, but dollar buying strengthened towards the New York time, temporarily showing the 148 yen level.
Thereafter, the upward movement calmed down and the trading session ended with a struggle for higher prices.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time began with a small range between 147 yen.
In the European market, the pair hovered around 147.20 yen, lacking a sense of direction.
In the New York time, dollar buying prevailed, with the pair rising to around ¥148.20.
Background and materials
Although the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, its subsequent stance was perceived as cautious.
Weak economic indicators, such as Japanese machinery orders, tilted investment sentiment in the direction of a sell-off in the yen.
The dollar as a whole remained firm against major currencies, which also supported the dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around JPY 147.00 was perceived as support and was a factor in the downside.
On the upside, the area around 147.80-148.20 yen acted as a resistance zone.
Technical note (mid-term).
Medium-term support is located around 146.50 yen, and if not broken, the pair is likely to be aware of the firmness of the downside.
If the JPY148 level is firmly exceeded, the JPY148.50 area will be the next guide.
impression
Differences in the monetary policy stance of the US and Japan continue to be the main driver of market movements.
Although there may be occasions for adjustment depending on US data, the policy gap is likely to remain in place for the time being.
trade observations
In the short term, buying was predominant, with the lower 147 yen range as a push point.
On the other hand, there was a lot of profit-taking at the 148 yen level, confirming the heavy upward pressure.
Despite the price range, there is an impression that the attack was settled at the top and bottom of the range.
checklist
Ensure support is maintained around 147.00.
Watch for a break through the upside resistance around JPY 148.20.
Be prepared for sudden fluctuations associated with US indicators or statements by the Bank of Japan.
review
The euro was predominantly bought in the European hour, but the dollar strengthened in the New York hour and was slightly lower at around 1.1789.
summary
The pair was in the 1.18s in the early stages of the session, but the upside was limited and the buying trend in Europe did not last long.
In the New York time, the dollar was bought more strongly and pushed back to the 1.1750 area.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours saw small movements around just 1.18.
The euro was bought in European hours and hit 1.1849.
In the New York session, the pair fell to 1.1751 on the back of dollar buying, but settled around 1.1789 at the close.
Background and materials
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but its subsequent cautious stance was a supportive factor for the dollar.
Some US economic indicators exceeded expectations, providing a cue for dollar buying.
In Europe, inflation slowed and business confidence improved, but the impact on monetary policy was considered limited.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Around 1.1790 acted as support, confirming that the price stopped falling at the end of the day.
The area around 1.1850 is considered as a guide to the upside.
Technical note (mid-term).
A clear break below 1.1740 could increase adjustment pressure.
Above the 1.1900 area, it is easy to be aware of the strengthening of the upward trend again.
impression
Differences in policy stance between the US and Europe continue to influence currency direction.
The environment remains difficult to form trends due to the mix of material strengths and weaknesses
trade observations
The strategy of chasing European hour buying was easily pushed by New York hour dollar buying.
Short-term return opportunities were identified, while there was also push-back activity at support
Overall, it was an effective situation for trading in and out of the range.
checklist
Confirmation that support in the vicinity of 1.1790 is maintained.
Be aware of upside resistance around 1.1850.
Be prepared for sudden fluctuations caused by US economic indicators and statements by key figures.
review
The dollar showed resilience in the European hour, but was bought by the dollar in the New York hour and fell to around 1.3555 at the end of the day.
summary
The Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged, but the impact was limited.
The announcement of a slowdown in quantitative austerity also limited the materiality of the announcement, and the overall trend was dollar-driven.
Today's price movements
Tokyo hours continued to see small movements around 1.3620.
In the European hours, the price rose to around 1.3660 in line with euro buying, but the upside was heavy.
Dollar buying strengthened against the backdrop of strong US economic indicators in the New York time, pushing the dollar down to the 1.3530 level.
Background and materials
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, in line with market expectations
The decision to slow down the annual scale of quantitative austerity from £100 billion to £70 billion.
In the US, indicators were resilient, reinforcing the trend to buy back the dollar.
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.3530-1.3540 acted as support.
The upside was a resistance zone around 1.3660, restraining the rise from European hours onwards.
Technical note (mid-term).
Medium-term adjustment pressure is likely to increase if the 1.3500 level is perceived to be below 1.3500.
A move above 1.3700 would reaffirm the continuation of the uptrend.
impression
UK policy changes lacked direction; rather, US material dominated the market.
Differences in inflation and growth prospects were highlighted between the US and UK and reflected in differences in currency trends
trade observations
The rise in European hours was easily perceived as an opportunity for a return sale.
In New York, the dollar was strongly bought, and buyers looking for a push were unlikely to be rewarded.
In the short term, selling from the upper end of the range prevailed.
checklist
Ensure that support is maintained around 1.3530.
Be aware of upside resistance around 1.3660.
Prepare for volatility due to differences in policy stance between the UK and the US.
review
The Australian dollar started the day softer on the back of weak employment data and briefly recovered in Europe, but closed lower in New York on the back of dollar buying.
summary
Weak labour market data was materialised by an unexpected decline in the Australian employment figures.
Cautiousness in the US after the interest rate cut, with dollar buying trend prevailing.
Today's price movements
Tokyo time tested below 0.6650 following the release of the statistics.
In European hours, the pair was bought back and lifted to around 0.6660.
In New York, the dollar was bought on the back of strong US indicators and was pushed lower to 0.6607.
Background and materials
Australia's August employment figures showed an unexpected decline of 5,400 jobs, with a significant fall in full-time employment.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, but the weakness was reinforced by a decline in the labour participation rate
In the US, the 'risk management' nature of the rate cut continued to be emphasised even after the rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to additional easing
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 0.6600-0.6610 area became a conscious support.
The upside was a resistance zone around 0.6660, which held back the return in the European hours.
Technical note (mid-term).
A clear break below 0.6580 is likely to lead to a conscious downward adjustment pressure.
A move above 0.6700 would confirm a rebound trend.
impression
Weak employment data limited the Australian dollar's upside, but the decline was also strengthened by a combination of dollar buying back from the US side of the market.
In addition to the stance of policy authorities, short-term supply and demand fluctuations are influencing market direction.
trade observations
Returns in European hours were easily recognised as a selling point, with a short-term return dominance.
Strong dollar buying in the New York time, with only limited push-buying attempts.
Some buying back near support, confirming the firmness of the downside
checklist
Ensure that support around 0.6600 can be maintained.
Be aware of return pressure around 0.6660.
Prepare for the risk of volatility associated with the release of Australian and US economic indicators.
FX Diary.