Market summary

Today's events are awaited ahead of the FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference

An environment where the initial US interest rates are the biggest factor and the price range is likely to be reduced until the announcement.

Mainly flow-driven traffic inside a holding pattern after the August jobs report.

Assumed range

Assumed basic scenario around 146.50-148.50.

Allow swing to 146.00-149.00 when expanding

Inspect quality of reaction at 147.00 and 148.00 milestones.

tactics

With range rotation as the axis, support zones are picked up in small lots and resistance zones are dispersed with return sales.

Size control and shallow profit-taking before events

Breaks are followed to a limited extent after confirmation of establishment and avoid chasing highs and lows.

trigger

The upside is to consolidate above 147.80 and test 148.00 to see if a short-term follow-through is possible.

Downside is below 147.00, confirming a run in the direction of 146.50 and the depth of the buyback.

Time of day is immediately after the initial European response and the statement release and press conference headlines

override condition

The return assumption is invalid if it continues to languish above 148.50.

If it continues to languish below 146.50, the push-buy assumption is invalid.

Shift to wait-and-see if event-derived sudden changes stay outside the expected zone for a longer period of time

risk event

FOMC Statement and Dot Implications and Initial Movements in Interest Rates

Degree of hawkishness and balance sheet references in Chairman Powell's press conference.

Headlines on US indices and news on supply and demand for government bonds

position management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and held more lightly immediately before the announcement.

Gains were executed in stages at 147.70-148.00 on the upper side and 147.10-146.80 on the lower side.

Losses are mechanically executed above 148.60 or below 146.40.

checklist

Have you identified changes in board quotes and volume around 147.00 and 147.80?

Have you sorted out the main points of the statement and press conference and the initial path of US interest rates?

Have you updated your permissible losses and open interest size before and after the event?

Market summary

Today's events are awaited ahead of the FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference

Initial US interest rate moves and dot indications are likely to influence the direction of the dollar at this stage

EURUSD remains at a four-year high and the focus is on continued upward movement.

Assumed range

The basic assumption is that the traffic will be around 1.1820-1.1920.

Allow swings up to around 1.1800-1.1950 during expansion.

Be aware of short-term excesses in time zones and headlines

tactics

The basic principle is to adopt a range rotation, with a slight preference for push-buying.

When resistance is approached, sell on the return and diversify small lots.

Ensure size control and staged profit-taking before events

trigger

The upside is 1.1900 established and above 1.1920, confirming the possibility of a 1.1950 test.

Downside is below 1.1840 to inspect the run to 1.1820 and the depth of the buyback.

Time frames are European initial reaction and interest rate initial reaction immediately after the release of the statement and the press conference

override condition

1. the return assumption is invalid if the market continues to languish above 1950

The push-back assumption is invalid if the price remains clearly below 1.1820.

Switch to a wait-and-see approach if the turbulence stays outside the expected zone for a long time.

risk event

FOMC Statement and Dot's suggested revisions and nuances of the press conference

Modulation of risk appetite due to US bond auctions and sudden changes in equities

Sudden outbursts of key figures' statements and geopolitical headlines

position management

Open interest is capped at no more than half the normal level and further reduced just before the announcement.

Gains are executed in stages at 1.1880-1.1900 on the upside and 1.1860-1.1840 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.1955 or below 1.1815.

checklist

Have you checked whether the 1.1900-1.1920 can be exceeded or not and the workmanship?

Have you grasped the strength of the push around 1.1820 and the thickness of the buy board?

Have the key points of the statement and press conference and the initial US interest rate transmission channels been sorted out?

Market summary

The biggest factor today is the initial move in US interest rates ahead of the FOMC and Powell's press conference.

Relatively cautious flows expected for the pound ahead of the UK MPC the day after

Pre-event wait-and-see attitude is likely to intensify and direction is headline-dependent

Assumed range

Assumed basic scenario around 1.3550-1.3680.

Above confirms the quality of the return around 1.3635-1.3680.

Below, inspect the reaction at the 1.3550 to 1.3520 support zone.

tactics

Tactics are based on range rotation and a neutral stance.

Sell back in resistance zones and buy on the downside in support zones, with small dispersions.

Keep positions light, refraining from new ones just before the event.

trigger

The upside is tested by staying above 1.3680 and testing 1.3700 to see if it can be followed or not.

Downside is below 1.3550, confirming a run in the direction of 1.3520 and the depth of the buyback.

The time frames focus on the initial European reaction and the initial interest rate reaction immediately after the release of the statement and the press conference.

override condition

The return assumption is invalid if it continues to languish above 1.3700.

If the price remains clearly below 1.3520, the push-back assumption is invalid.

If the turbulence stays outside the expected zone for a long period of time, move to a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

FOMC statement and dot indications and nuances of Powell's press conference

Initial changes in risk appetite in US interest rates and equities

UK MPC-related headlines and government bond supply and demand on the following day.

position management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and adjusted more lightly before the announcement.

Gains were executed in stages at 1.3630-1.3660 on the upside and 1.3570-1.3540 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.3710 or below 1.3515.

checklist

Has the residence time and volume in the upper band of 1.3635-1.3680 been confirmed?

Have you identified the thickness of the boards and contracts in the support zone from 1.3550 to 1.3520?

Have the size and withdrawal criteria been updated by event time and assumed scenario?

Market summary

Today's events are awaited ahead of the FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference

An environment where initial US interest rate moves and the nuances of the statement are likely to influence the direction of the dollar.

Lack of new material on the Australian side, with resource market conditions and China-related headlines providing clues.

Assumed range

The basic assumption is a back-and-forth between around 0.6620-0.6705.

Allow swings up to around 0.6600-0.6720 when expanding

The centre is assessed at around 0.6660, with a residence time above and below.

tactics

Tactics are based on range rotation, buying at the pushpoint and selling on the way back in small portions.

Hold back on new positions just before the event and keep positions light.

After an index, initial follow-up is limited to a short period of time and policy is updated depending on whether or not it has taken hold.

trigger

The upside is a 0.6700 fix and 0.6710 test to see if it can be followed.

Downside is below 0.6620 to inspect the run in the direction of 0.6600 and the depth of the buyback.

The time frames focus on the initial European reaction and the initial interest rate reaction immediately after the release of the statement and the press conference.

override condition

The return assumption is invalid if it continues to stay above 0.6715.

If the price remains clearly below 0.6600, the push-back assumption is invalid.

If the turbulence stays outside the expected zone for a long period of time, move to a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

FOMC Statement and Dot Implications and the nuances of Chairman Powell's press conference

Initial changes in US interest rates and equities and the impact of US bond supply and demand.

Headline risk in resource prices and China-related indicators.

position management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and adjusted more lightly just before the announcement.

Gains are executed in stages at 0.6690-0.6700 on the upper side and 0.6630-0.6615 on the lower side.

Losses are mechanically executed above 0.6715 or below 0.6595.

checklist

Did it confirm the upside reaction and dwell time around 0.6700?

Did you inspect the depth of the buyback at the 0.6620 to 0.6600 support zone?

Updated size and withdrawal criteria by event time and scenario?

review

The wait-and-see approach continued before the FOMC meeting, with a temporary decline after the policy rate announcement, but the market closed on a positive note due to buying back.

summary

The market lacked a sense of direction in the early stages and was pushed down to the mid-145 yen range at times.

Despite lingering uncertainty about the outlook for US interest rates, the prevailing trend towards the end of the day was to support the lower end of the market.

The daily line formed a long positive line with a long lower whisker, which made the market aware of its short-term resilience.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours saw small movements, mainly in the low ¥146 range.

The pair fell sharply to around 145.50 following the policy rate announcement in the New York time, but then rallied back to around 147.00.

The closing price settled in the low ¥146 range, swinging up and down but maintaining the lower price.

Background and materials

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, raising awareness that the rate-cutting cycle is set to continue.

The statement indicated employment and growth risks, and the dovish message triggered dollar selling.

On the Japanese side, the BOJ has not indicated any major policy changes, despite some weakness in economic indicators.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The 145.50 area was identified as recent support.

The immediate resistance level was around 147.00, and it was noted whether it would be breached or not.

The market was seen below the 20- and 50-day moving averages, but a rebound led to a short-term return.

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily trend continues to test the lower limit of the ascending wedge shape.

The area around the 100-day moving average is a medium-term downside guide.

The RSI showed a slight pick-up from oversold territory, suggesting an adjustmental return.

impression

The market reaction to the decision to cut interest rates was limited to a temporary dollar sell-off, with impressive buying strength.

The direction of monetary policy still weighs on the dollar, but it is unclear whether the yen will continue to come under pressure.

The size of the price range highlights the importance of position management during event risk.

trade observations

Push-buying with an eye on support and pre-event position reduction were effective.

It is commendable that the company was able to utilise the lower end of the range without being upset by the temporary plunge.

However, it was difficult to make profit-taking decisions during a sharp rebound, and the choice between extending or defending margins was a challenge.

checklist

Reconfirm the support level around 145.50.

To verify the strength of resistance around 147.00.

Watch how the market reacts to the pace of the Fed's future rate cuts.

review

The daily line was a shadow with a long upper whisker after the policy rate announcement amid a wait-and-see attitude before the FOMC meeting, but the rate rose briefly and then fell sharply.

summary

The market was waiting for the event, with small movements around 1.1800 in the early part of the session.

Euro buying strengthened following the Fed's decision to cut rates, rising to around 1.1875.

The level was then pushed down by dollar buy-backs.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours were in a range between 1.1800 and 1.1800.

The rate rose sharply after the interest rate announcement in the New York time, hitting around 1.1875, but the upside was not extended.

The price fell back at the end of the day, falling below 1.1800 and closing the day in a negative line.

Background and materials

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, widening the view that the rate-cutting cycle will continue

The statement triggered dollar selling due to awareness of employment and growth risks.

On the other hand, strong US retail sales restrained speculation of a wider rate cut.

Technical memorandum (short term)

1.1875 was a strong resistance as a recent high.

1.1779-1.1800 is considered as short-term support.

Failed to break above the moving average and became aware of pressure to return to the market

Technical note (mid-term).

The daily line formed a shadow line with an upper whisker, confirming the upward pressure around 1.1900.

In the medium term, the range from the low 1.1700s continues.

The RSI fell slightly from its highs and showed increasing signs of adjustment.

impression

The impression remained that the euro buying on the rate cut announcement was temporary and that the dollar buying back was predominant.

Upward and downward swings indicate the strength of uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.

The importance of short-term position management against event risk was reiterated.

trade observations

The day was a test of profit-taking decisions during a short-term sharp rise in the market.

New purchases at high prices were likely to be caught in a sell-off and caution was required.

There were many occasions when selling back to the market using lower support was relatively effective.

checklist

To reconfirm the high level of 1.1875.

Verify the maintenance of support for 1.1779-1.1800.

Keep a close watch on market reaction to the pace of Fed rate cuts

review

A wait-and-see before the FOMC meeting, the rate briefly rose after the policy rate announcement, but fell back, and the daily line was a shadow with a long upper whisker.

summary

The price remained slightly above around 1.3600 in the early part of the session.

The announcement of the interest rate cut strengthened the pound's buying power, which rose to around 1.3670.

The level was then pushed down by dollar buy-backs.

Today's price movements

Tokyo hours were calm between 1.3600 and 1.3600.

The rate rose to around 1.3670 after the announcement of the rate cut in New York time.

The price fell back rapidly at the end of the day, falling below 1.3600 at times.

Background and materials

Fed cuts policy rate by 25 bp as markets look for continued rate cuts

The statement's references to employment and growth risks led to dollar selling.

Meanwhile, UK inflation remained high and BoE rate cut speculation was receding.

Technical memorandum (short term)

1.3575 acted as recent support.

1.3670 became an upside resistance and failed to break through.

Failed to break above the short-term moving average, resulting in the form of a reactionary fall.

Technical note (mid-term).

1.3500 is considered as a medium-term downside guideline.

A strong resistance zone around 1.3700 is restricting the market's upward movement.

RSI fell from its highs and showed an adjustment colour.

impression

Price movements in response to policy events did not continue in one direction and were back and forth

Interest rate policy in both the US and the UK remained the focus of the market

The sharp rebound was followed by a sell-off, reminding us once again of the roughness of price movements during event risk.

trade observations

Difficult to judge gains during the surge phase immediately after the event

Short-term stop-loss management was effective in avoiding high prices.

Short-term trading using support levels worked relatively well.

checklist

Confirmation that support around 1.3575 will hold.

Keep a close watch on whether the resistance zone between 1.3670 and 1.3700 can be breached.

Tracking changes in the Fed's and BoE's monetary policy outlook.

review

Small movements ahead of the FOMC meeting continued, but rose after the policy rate announcement and then fell back sharply, leaving the daily line in a long shadow with a long upper whisker.

summary

The market remained around 0.6670 in the early stages with a lack of direction due to a wait-and-see attitude.

The dollar was sold off following the Fed's rate cut and rose to around 0.6700.

The dollar then began to fall back as dollar buy-backs prevailed.

Today's price movements

Tokyo time was range-bound around 0.6670.

The rate rose to around 0.6700 following the policy rate announcement in New York time.

The dollar was pushed back to around 0.6650 at the end of the day.

Background and materials

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, raising awareness of the prospect of continued rate cuts

The statement mentioned risks to the economy and employment, triggering a temporary sell-off in the dollar.

Meanwhile, concerns about Australian employment figures did not sustain Australian dollar buying.

Technical memorandum (short term)

0.6700 was identified as the latest resistance.

0.6650 was a candidate for support and was tested towards the end of the day.

Failure to break above the short-term moving average provided the backdrop for the fall.

Technical note (mid-term).

On the daily basis, a shadow line with an upper whisker formed, confirming the heaviness of the upside.

The area around 0.6600 is a medium-term downside indicator.

RSI fell from its highs and showed an adjustment colour.

impression

Australian dollar buying following the rate cut was temporary and lacked staying power.

Uncertainty over US monetary policy is affecting the overall dollar market.

The up-and-down swing was typical of developments during event risk.

trade observations

Difficulty in making profit-taking decisions during sharp rises required a flexible response.

Short-term trading using support levels has shown some effectiveness.

The return strategy worked during the sell-back phase.

checklist

Reaffirming resistance in the vicinity of 0.6700.

To verify the strength of the support at 0.6650-0.6600.

Keep a close eye on the Australian employment figures and the Fed's rate cut outlook.