Market summary

Easy ground for a small swing in US interest rates ahead of the first day of the FOMC meeting and US retail sales.

Mostly position adjustments before the event, with the BoJ meeting also coming up later in the week.

Tokyo expects liquidity to normalise and focuses on flows in Europe and New York.

Assumed range

Basic scenario around 147.00-149.00

Above, the ground is prone to a return to the 147.90-149.00 area.

Below confirms firmness in the 147.00-146.50 area.

tactics

Thinly dispersed with the range rotation as the axis, checking the reaction in the upper and lower bands.

Ensure size control and early profit-taking before events

Breaks follow only after confirmation of volume.

trigger

The upside is a short-term follow-up with a firming above 147.90 and a test of 149.00.

Downside is a break below 147.00 to watch for a run in the direction of 146.50.

Time zones are European entry and early New York and 21:30 US retail headlines.

override condition

Withdraw the return assumption if the price stays high above 149.00.

Withdraw the push-buy assumption if the price remains below 146.50 all day.

If event-derived turbulence continues to stay outside the assumed zone, move to a wait-and-see approach.

risk event

US retail sales results and initial movements in interest rates

Key figures' statements and press headlines on the first day of the FOMC meeting

Observations related to the BOJ meeting and reports on the operational policy

position management

Maximum size of less than half the normal size and even lighter before indicators.

Consider staged settlement at 147.80-148.20 on the upside and 147.10-146.80 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 149.10 or below 146.40.

checklist

Have the US retail times and assumed reaction paths been organised?

Have you identified changes in board quotes and volume at 147.00 and 147.90?

Have you updated your position and risk tolerance before and after the event?

Market summary

Today's events are awaited ahead of the first day of the FOMC meeting and US August retail sales

Small swings in US interest rates, limited directionality in the dollar and a supportive environment for the euro push.

Assumed range

Assumes 1.1700-1.1820 as the basic scenario.

Allow swings up to 1.1680-1.1850 when expanded.

tactics

Basically, range rotation is used.

Sell on the return when resistance is approaching and buy on the push when support is approaching, with small diversification.

Ensure size control and staged profit-taking before events

trigger

The upside is verified by the consolidation above 1.1785 and the upside above 1.1820.

Downside is below 1.1700 and below 1.1680, noting a spillover of selling pressure.

Time zones are European entry and US retail at 21:30 and initial interest rate movements in early New York.

override condition

The return assumption is invalid if it continues to languish above 1.1820.

If 1.1700 is clearly broken and the daily low is reached, the push-back assumption is invalid.

risk event

US August retail sales results and related headlines.

Sentiment change due to FOMC first-day press coverage and key figures' statements

position management

Size is capped at half the normal size and even lighter before indicators.

Gains were executed in stages at 1.1770-1.1800 and 1.1710-1.1730.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.1825 or below 1.1680.

checklist

Did you confirm the possibility of a break above last week's high around 1.1785 and the volume?

Is the support zone at 1.1700-1.1680 holding?

Have you sorted out the initial path for US retail and interest rates at 21:30?

Market summary

The US dollar is expected to be directionless today with small swings in US interest rates ahead of the first day of the FOMC meeting and US retail

Limited material on the UK side, likely to be flow-driven ahead of the MPC, and focus on where the upward pressure can be confirmed.

Note short-term position adjustments as liquidity is restored on arrival in London and early New York.

Assumed range

The basic assumption is a back-and-forth between around 1.3520-1.3600.

Allow swings up to around 1.3500-1.3635 when expanding

The ground is prone to repetitive upward testing and push formation depending on the time of day

tactics

Small lot diversification by selling back when resistance is approaching and buying at the pushpoint when support is approaching, based on the range rotation.

Avoid chasing high prices and wait until you see a reaction before entering the market.

Before the event, the size is kept low and the gains are made in shallow increments.

trigger

The upside is a consolidation above 1.3600 and a test of 1.3615-1.3635 to check buying continuity.

Downside is below 1.3520 to see if 1.3500 reacts and runs.

Time: London initials and US retail headlines at 21:30 and interest rate initials in early New York.

override condition

The return assumption is invalid if it continues to languish above 1.3635.

If it stays clearly below 1.3500, the push-buy assumption is invalid.

Switch to a wait-and-see approach if the turbulence stays outside the expected zone for a long time.

risk event

Initial impact of US retail sales results and interest rates.

Sentiment change due to FOMC first-day press coverage and key figures' statements

Headlines related to the Bank of England and sudden changes in gilt yields

position management

Open interest is capped at less than half the normal level and held more lightly before an index.

Gains are executed in stages at 1.3580-1.3600 on the upside and 1.3540-1.3525 on the downside.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.3610 or below 1.3490.

checklist

1. whether or not the 3600 can be exceeded and whether or not the workmanship has been checked

Have you grasped the reaction and the thinness of the board in support of 1.3520 and 1.3500?

Have you organised today's indicator times and expected paths of flow change?

Market summary

The swing in US interest rates is likely to be limited today as we await the first day of FOMC and US retail events.

New material on the Australian side is scarce, with Chinese indices and resource markets the main cues.

Hard to see clear resistance and priority will be given to confirming where the upward pressure is coming from.

Assumed range

Assume a basic scenario of around 0.6600-0.6700

Above, we will confirm the strength of the return in the 0.6660-0.6700 area.

Below, inspect the reaction at the 0.6600 to 0.6580 support zone.

tactics

With range rotation as the axis, we pick up small amounts on the pushes and take staged profits on the returns.

Breaks are followed to a limited extent after confirming the volume.

Before the event, the policy will be to keep the size down and not go too deep into retention.

trigger

The upside will be tested by establishing above 0.6700 and testing 0.6715 to see if it can be followed.

A break below 0.6580 will alert the market to a further run.

The time frames will focus on the first European and the first US retail at 21:30 and the first interest rate at the beginning of the New York session.

override condition

If it continues to stay above 0.6700, the return assumption will be invalidated.

If the price remains clearly below 0.6580, the push-back assumption is invalid.

Switch to a wait-and-see approach if there is a sudden change at the same time as the indicator and it stays outside the expected band for a longer period of time

risk event

US retail sales surprises and the resulting reaction of US interest rates.

Relevant headlines and key figures' statements on the first day of the FOMC

High-frequency data and resource market fluctuations in China.

position management

Open interest is capped at no more than half the normal level and even lower before an index.

Interest rates are executed in stages at 0.6660-0.6690 and 0.6610-0.6590.

Losses are mechanically executed above 0.6715 or below 0.6575.

checklist

0.6700 Confirmation of whether or not to go above 0.6700 and the workmanship?

Has the maintenance of the support zone at 0.6600-0.6580 been assessed?

Have the initial routes for today's index times and interest rates been organised?

review

In Tokyo, the yen started the day on a downwards trend, while in Europe, after a wait-and-see approach to US indicators, the US dollar turned to the upside in New York as expectations of a rate cut prevailed despite a rise in retail sales.

summary

Even though the indicator itself is strong, the persistence of the idea of lower interest rates limits the sustainability of dollar buying.

Positional adjustments ahead of the event led to a test up and down, but ultimately back within the range.

Today's price movements

Tokyo is pushing downwards towards below 147.00 and the return is slow.

Europe is waiting for indicators, with a lack of direction and a small back-and-forth.

In New York, dollar buying did not last for a moment immediately after the retail upturn, but the downward pressure resumed and the pullback converged around 147.00.

Background and materials

US August retail sales beat expectations, but interest rates remain heavy on the upside as rate cut speculation is more prevalent.

Speculation ahead of the FOMC meeting and waiting for headlines influence flows, with short-term muscle rotation the main focus.

Intermittent yen-buying speculation in view of the BOJ meeting later in the week.

Technical memorandum (short term)

Resistance is 147.50 to 148.00 Support is 147.00 to 146.50.

Momentum is closer to neutral and returns are likely to be restrained in stages, with the lows structured to be bought back in.

Technical note (mid-term).

Holding at 146.50-148.50 continues, awaiting break

Increased stagnation near moving averages and a slight contraction in price range

impression

Focus on the quality of price movements and follow them sparingly in situations where the direction of the fundamentals is difficult to see.

Until the event passes, check the assumptions of the scenario frequently and stand still in the event of abnormal price movements.

trade observations

The basic principle is range rotation, size is controlled, gains are shallow and losses are mechanically executed.

Sudden changes should only be considered in the first instance and delayed reversals should be avoided.

checklist

Has the heaviness of the 147.50 upside and the strength of support at 147.00 been confirmed by the actual price?

Have we got a grasp of the initial movement of US interest rates and the speed at which they are transmitted to the exchange rate?

Have the event times and position sizes for the next working day been rechecked?

review

Euro buys in Europe ahead of FOMC meeting, US retail sales up, but dollar buying does not continue as rate cut speculation prevails, and the euro closes higher in New York.

summary

Pre-event positional adjustments and small swings in interest rates led to a sense of direction with a strong euro bias, but also a sense of overheating.

While the push was shallow and the upward test continued, there was a noticeable lack of growth towards the end of the day.

Today's price movements

Early in Europe, once above the previous day's highs, the market was pushed to profit.

Dollar buying immediately after US retail but does not last, falls back and the euro rises again.

The closing phase of the market converged on the highs and the close maintained a firm level.

Background and materials

US August retail sales up, but US dollar index heavy as expectations of easing and lower interest rates by the end of the year prevail.

ECB's data-dependent stance and lack of additional material, flow-driven tone

Risk appetite for geopolitics and higher equities supports the euro via cross

Technical memorandum (short term)

Resistance is in the vicinity of 1.1850-1.1880, with the focus on whether or not the upward breakout is established.

Support is at 1.1800 to 1.1780, confirming the shallowness of the push.

Short-term momentum is upwards, but note the increase in the upper shadow

Technical note (mid-term).

Continued testing of the upper limit of the 1.1700-1.1900 range

While the trend is firm with the trend remaining above the moving average group, the ability to settle in after a break is an issue.

impression

The dynamics of interest rates and easing expectations make it difficult to extend dollar purchases even if indicators are strong.

The longer the market waits for headlines, the more priority is given to checking the quality of price movements and volume.

trade observations

Basically range rotation and limited tracking on the upper side after confirming a stay above 1.1850.

On the downside, the reaction at 1.1800 is seen and the shallow bite priority size is managed up to half the normal size.

checklist

Whether the above 1.1850-1.1880 breakout is possible or not and whether the volume has been confirmed.

Did the 1.1800 to 1.1780 support zone verify the strength of the push?

Have the times of the next events and the expected reaction paths been organised?

review

Despite limited material ahead of the FOMC and UK MPC meetings, buying was strong from Tokyo, and even with the US retail upbeat, rate cut speculation prevailed and New York closed higher.

summary

Upside of the dollar is heavy and the pound continues to test the upside with a shallow push.

Growth slows towards the end of the day and converges into a range, with a sense of overheating.

Pre-event position adjustment is the main driver of price movements and short-term is flow-driven.

Today's price movements

Tokyo consolidates before 1.36 and moves up to the 1.36s on entry into Europe.

US retail immediately afterwards, dollar buying was temporarily unsustainable and maintained the 1.36 level.

The second half of the New York session ended with a narrowing of the highs and traffic around the 1.36s.

Background and materials

US August retail sales exceeded expectations, but US interest rates have limited upside due to the prevailing view of easing before the end of the year.

Relative support on the UK side due to unchanged forecasts and QT slowdown speculation.

Risk appetite, including higher stock prices, underpinning the pound via cross

Technical memorandum (short term)

Resistance is 1.3600 to 1.3635 to 1.3680 Support is 1.3550 to 1.3520.

Judgment on the upside is confirmed on the basis of the establishment above 1.3635 and the shallowness of the push.

Momentum is neutral upwards, but note the increase in the upper shadow.

Technical note (mid-term).

Continued holding in the 1.3470-1.3680 band, direction is likely to be left to the passage of events.

Sustaining 1.3550 is a divergence to confirm the underlying tone and a break below is a sign of re-confirmation of the lower range boundary.

impression

Strong indicators make it difficult to continue buying the dollar, and the price range is highly flow-dependent.

Focus on the quality of the reaction, avoiding unreasonable break-following in the headline-waiting phase.

trade observations

Basis is range rotation and size is controlled to less than half of normal.

Gains are executed in stages at 1.3600-1.3630 on the upper side and 1.3560-1.3540 on the lower side.

Losses are mechanically executed above 1.3685 or below 1.3520.

checklist

Did the actual price confirm whether or not the 1.3635 can be exceeded and the volume?

Has the support zone at 1.3520-1.3550 verified the strength of the push?

Have the next day's event times and initial US interest rate transmission channels been sorted out?

review

With the FOMC meeting on the horizon, US retail sales were up, but expectations of a rate cut won't keep the dollar from buying, and the Australian dollar rallied at the end of the day to close slightly higher than the previous day's highs.

summary

Upside test continues amid pre-event wait-and-see, with a slight fall in US interest rates providing support.

The market was flow-driven due to a lack of new material related to resource markets and China.

It was a day of limited value but shallow pushback.

Today's price movements

From Tokyo to Europe, the market tested the upper 0.66s but remained sluggish.

Immediately after US retail, dollar buying did not continue for a time and reverted to the traffic.

Bought back in late New York and closed slightly above the previous day's high.

Background and materials

US interest rates remain heavy on the upside as the FOMC meeting is expected to ease the following day.

US retail upbeat but no shift in sentiment, but risk appetite remains firm

Headlines on the Australian side are limited, with the main cues being the interest rate differential with the US and developments in equity commodities.

Technical memorandum (short term)

The upside is focused on a reaction around 0.6700 and whether or not it can be established even if it breaks through.

The downside confirms the strength of the push in the 0.6600 to 0.6580 band.

Short-term momentum is neutral upwards, note increase/decrease in whiskers

Technical note (mid-term).

Continued testing of the upper limit of the 0.6600-0.6700 range

After a break above the range, I would like to evaluate based on the shallowness of the return and the volume.

impression

Even with strong indicators, the dynamics of interest rates and easing expectations continue to make it difficult to continue buying the dollar.

In the headline-waiting phase, price retention and volume bias should be prioritised in the decision-making process.

trade observations

Basis is range rotation, dispersed sparingly in size.

Gains are made in progressively shallower increments and losses are made mechanically at prior levels.

Avoid chasing highs and wait to see the strength of the pushback before participating.

checklist

Have you checked the quality of the dwell time around 0.6700 and the quality of the upside?

Did you inspect the depth of the buyback at the 0.6600 to 0.6580 support zone?

Have the next day's event times and initial US interest rate transmission channels been sorted out?