Charts are automatically displayed as soon as the currency market opens for the relevant day and the necessary data has been obtained.
Please wait a moment for the display.
| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Aug Retail sales [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
|||||
| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | Aug Industrial production [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
|||||
| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Sept New York Fed Manufacturing Index |
graphical representation
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
|
Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), statement. | |
| stage absence | - | 🇯🇵 Japan | - |
Today's Outlook.
On 15 September 2025, USDJPY continues to be vulnerable to interest rate cut expectations after last week's weaker US unemployment insurance claims and PPI. A fall in long-term US interest rates also restrained the US dollar's upside, and a predominantly yen-buying trend is being considered. Meanwhile, developments in the LDP presidential election are also a factor of interest for the yen, and with the Japanese holiday and rebalancing flows at the start of the week, a sense of direction is expected to be difficult to find. On the chart, the focus is likely to be on support at the recent lows and near the return highs.
EURUSD was underpinned by a cautious view on additional interest rate cuts, as the ECB left rates unchanged and President Lagarde indicated that it would depend on data. Meanwhile, in the US, weak PPI and unemployment insurance claims data raised awareness of the possibility of a rate cut, and lower long-term US interest rates also weighed on the dollar. The previous weekend, after temporarily testing the highs during the European session, the price swung up and down through the New York session and closed with a lack of directional movement. Today, the market will want to be aware of the recent high levels and the firmness of the push, while paying attention to rebalancing and adjustment flows at the end of the week.
In GBPUSD, weaker US PPI and unemployment insurance claims data have raised awareness of the possibility of a rate cut, and combined with lower US long-term interest rates, the dollar's upside is likely to be restrained. On the UK side, there is a lack of significant material, and the pound alone continues to find it difficult to gain a sense of direction. At the end of the previous week, the pound temporarily tested a downside in European hours, but swung up and down through New York hours and closed with little sense of direction. Today, the market should be aware of recent highs and firmness to the downside, while also being wary of the impact of rebalancing and flows at the end of the week.
Last weekend's weaker-than-expected US PPI, together with a rise in unemployment insurance claims, raised awareness of the possibility of a rate cut, restraining the dollar's upside. New material from Australia is scarce, with China-related indicators and resource prices continuing to provide clues. The previous day gave the impression of testing the downside from European to New York hours and ending with an adjustment from start to finish. It is difficult to see clear resistance on a daily basis, and while push-back awareness remains, attention should be paid to flows and rebalancing trends at the end of the week.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In addition to the Japanese holiday, new material was limited due to speculation ahead of the US FOMC and BoJ meetings during the week. The swing in US interest rates was also small and the market was generally waiting for the headlines. Trading was range-bound, with a gradual upward move, and the market continued to bounce back and forth within the 11-day downward wave, with no sense of direction.
With the FOMC meeting due later in the week, the swing in US interest rates was small and the EURUSD was conscious of the heaviness of the upside. In the European hour, the pair was bid up to the previous day's highs, but after entering New York, the upward momentum slowed due to a lack of material, and the pair failed to reach last week's highs.
During the European hour, the market was bought and reached the previous day's high; after entering New York, follow-on buying was thin and the market was sluggish. On the daily timeframe, the pair exceeded the most recent resistance, but the establishment was unconfirmed, and the phase was a search for upside weight.
Ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week, the US interest rate swing was small and the AUDUSD was heavy on the upside, while new material on the Australian side was scarce, with Chinese indices and resource markets providing clues. Buying was ahead from Asia to Europe, but the previous day's highs were not reached, and there were noticeable signs of a pullback. The pair was still pushing shallowly and remained firm around the upper 0.66s, and although it remained sluggish in the early part of the New York session, it finally broke slightly above the previous day's highs in the latter part of the session.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
Weak US unemployment insurance claims and PPI data have raised awareness of the possibility of interest rate cuts, and a decline in long-term US interest rates is restraining the US dollar's upside.
Reports of the LDP presidential election may impact the yen market, with the Japanese holiday and the start of the week's flow adding to the lack of direction.
Assumed range
Assumed to be centred around 147.20-148.20.
The downside is likely to confirm support around 147.00, while the upside is likely to be a return high around 148.50.
tactics
Basic stance is to sell back
A test of the lows is expected, so priority is given to entry on the return phase, while also paying attention to short-term pushback adjustments.
trigger
Downward test likely to intensify below 147.00
A break above 148.50 would require a review of the return selling strategy.
Possible short-term triggers from US indicators in the NY hour and flows in the European hour
override condition
A clear break above 148.50 and consolidation at the highs would break the return scenario.
Assumptions need to be revised in case reports of Japanese political factors accelerate the selling of the yen.
risk event
US Federal Reserve Bank of New York Manufacturing Index and other economic indicators.
Press flow related to the LDP presidential election
Changes in supply and demand due to rebalancing at the end of the week
position management
Adjust entry by 1/3 to 1/2 the size of the smaller entry.
Interest is set in steps of 20-30 pips.
Losses are executed when a clear confirmation above 148.50 is made.
checklist
Check trends in long-term US interest rates and risk assets.
Watching the impact of media coverage of the LDP presidential election on the yen market.
Responding to short-term flows by rebalancing at the end of the week
Market summary
The ECB left its policy rate unchanged, with President Lagarde supporting the euro with a cautious stance, depending on the data.
Weak PPI and unemployment insurance claims in the US have led to speculation of interest rate cuts, weighing on the US dollar as US long-term interest rates fall.
The previous weekend saw a temporary test of the highs in the European hour, but the market swung up and down in the New York hour and closed with a lack of direction.
Assumed range
The downside is around 1.1580 and the upside is around 1.1750.
Must remain within a range and be prepared for a break either up or down.
A phase that simultaneously confirms the heaviness of the highs and the firmness of the pushes.
tactics
Basis is to assume range rotation, with short-term push-buying and return selling.
Prefer profit-taking before 1.1700, and buy consciousness when testing lower support.
Flexible response to sudden changes, avoiding impossible positions.
trigger
The upside is a turning point for a clear break above 1.1750.
A downside is below 1.1580, watch out for a range breakdown.
Short-term triggers are economic indicators in the US time and flows in early Europe.
override condition
If the pair settles well above 1.1750, the return policy is rejected.
Conversely, a clear daily pullback below 1.1580 would invalidate the push-buy policy.
Be wary of the point at which the range assumption is broken by either a new high or low.
risk event
US trends in the New York Fed manufacturing index and pre-FOMC statements.
Eurozone price-related indicators and key figures' statements.
Rebalancing flows and sudden geopolitical news specific to the beginning of the week.
position management
Position size is restrained to half the normal size.
The target for gains is around 1.1700 and for losses is below 1.1580 and above 1.1760.
Limit risk while following short-term price movements.
checklist
Did you see a reaction in the vicinity of 1.1700?
Has the maintenance of support around 1.1580 been verified?
Did they adjust their positions before the release of indicators or statements by key figures?
Market summary
Weak PPI and unemployment insurance claims in the US raised awareness of the possibility of interest rate cuts, and lower US long-term interest rates also weighed on the dollar.
On the UK side, there is a lack of new material, and the pound alone is unlikely to give a sense of direction.
The previous weekend, after a downward push in the European hour, the New York hour swung up and down and closed with a lack of direction.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 1.3520 and the upside around 1.3600.
In the short term, the main focus is on the back-and-forth between support and resistance.
Range of price movement is somewhat more limited and waiting for a break
tactics
Basis is to be aware of range rotation, with push-buying near support and return selling near resistance.
Prioritise early gains if testing highs is slow.
A small, chopping battle strategy is effective until there is a sense of direction.
trigger
The focus is on whether the upside is clearly established above 1.3600.
A downside below 1.3520 is likely to signal a range breakdown.
Flows in early European hours and US economic indicators in New York are key in the short term.
override condition
If established above 1.3600, the return policy is negated.
Pushback is invalid in a development below 1.3520 and daily lows.
If the range assumption is rejected, the strategy is switched to match the direction of the break.
risk event
US Federal Reserve Bank of New York manufacturing index and US housing-related indicators.
Press coverage of statements by UK dignitaries and fiscal matters.
Rebalancing flows specific to the beginning of the week
position management
Position size is controlled to half the normal size.
Gains are based on gains around 1.3580 and losses below 1.3520 and above 1.3610.
Focus on short-term trading and avoid holding for long periods of time.
checklist
Is support around 1.3520 holding?
1.3600 Whether the possibility of a breakthrough was confirmed in the European and New York timeframes?
Have you adjusted your position before risk events?
Market summary
In the US, PPI came in lower than expected, and together with a rise in unemployment insurance claims, this, along with increased expectations of a rate cut, restrained the US dollar's upside.
Lack of new material from Australia, with Chinese economic indicators and resource prices continuing to provide clues.
The previous day tested a downward push from European to New York hours and ended with a strong overall adjustment.
Assumed range
The downside is expected to be around 0.6580 and the upside around 0.6700.
Watch out for directionless movements, as the focus is likely to be on attacking and defending within a range.
The focus is on whether the price can be extended upwards while confirming the firmness of the lower price.
tactics
The basic principle is to buy at the push, with an emphasis on reactions at support levels.
Prioritise gains on the upside at 0.6660-0.6700 and be aware of short-term rotation.
Take it easy and control position size in case of sudden changes.
trigger
Buying interest may increase if a clear break above 0.6700 can be established.
Downward awareness is likely to increase below 0.6580.
European hour flows and US economic indicators in the NY hour are likely to be short-term movers.
override condition
Return scenario invalidated if the price breaks well above 0.6700 and is established on a daily basis.
Conversely, a break below 0.6580 and a new daily low would negate the push-back policy.
A clear breakthrough of support or resistance either above or below would break the range assumption.
risk event
Release of the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York manufacturing index and housing-related indicators.
Key economic indicators such as industrial production and retail sales in China
Rebalancing and resource market fluctuations specific to the beginning of the week
position management
Position size should be carefully handled at half the normal size.
The profit margin should be around 0.6660 and the loss margin should be below 0.6580 and above 0.6710.
Stick to short-term trading and keep positions light before and after events.
checklist
Have you checked that support for 0.6580 is maintained?
Did you confirm in the European and New York hours whether or not 0.6700 was breached?
Have you adjusted your position before risk events?
AI postcards: today's market
review
The market remained in a narrow range with limited material ahead of the US FOMC and BOJ meetings during the week, in addition to the Japanese holidays, and continued to move in and out of the 11-day downward wave while gradually cutting the upside.
summary
Strong wait-and-see attitude to events, small swings in US interest rates and limited directional movement in the US dollar.
The price range was noticeably reduced during the day due to a mixture of push-buying and return selling.
Today's price movements
The yen remains centred around the 147 yen level, although it is slowly slipping from the mid-147 yen level at the beginning of the day
The return from Europe to New York was slow and the upper end of the range was not clearly exceeded.
Background and materials
Flows were thin due to the Japan holiday, and position adjustments prevailed ahead of the US FOMC and BOJ meetings during the week.
Lack of new material on key indicators and continued to wait for headlines
Technical memorandum (short term)
Continued inside the 11-day downwave, with the return being held back in stages.
The upper part of the phase confirms the heaviness in the upper 147 yen range and the lower part of the phase confirms the persistence in the lower 147 yen range.
Technical note (mid-term).
The medium-term trend is neutral as the market continues to hold between the high ¥146s and low ¥149s.
The ground continues to be prone to increasing price stagnation as we wait for a break.
impression
Maintain a standstill attitude in the event of a move outside the assumed scenario, as there is a high risk of unreasonable pre-event following.
Prioritising short-term gains and increasing the frequency of information updates are considered effective.
trade observations
Basically, range rotation, reduced size, shallow gains and mechanically executed stop-losses.
Keep positions light before indicators and wait and see rather than follow in the event of sudden changes.
checklist
Did they reconfirm the support in the first half of the 147 yen range and the heaviness of the second half of the range, respectively?
Are you aware of the time and content of US interest rates and related headlines?
Have you reviewed your position size and risk tolerance before and after the event?
review
The previous day's high was reached by buying during the European hour, but after entering New York, it was sluggish and failed to reach last week's high.
summary
Small swing in US interest rates ahead of the week's FOMC meeting, with limited direction in the euro due to a mix of push-backs and sell-backs.
The headline-waiting phase continued, with short-term price trends narrowing.
Today's price movements
Early in Europe, the market was dominated by buyers and tested the 1.1750 area at times, but it did not last and stalled.
The highs slowed down as the pair bounced between 1.1710-1.1740 over New York.
Background and materials
The US dollar is struggling to the upside on the back of weak US PPI and unemployment insurance claims, with interest rate cut speculation in mind.
ECB maintained its data-dependent stance and the euro's push is likely to be underpinned, while new material was limited.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Support is 1.1700 to around 1.1680, resistance is 1.1750 to 1.1780.
RSI is in neutral territory and needs volume and confirmation of consecutive positive lines to break above.
Technical note (mid-term).
The trend remains stagnant in the 1.1600-1.1820 band and the trend is neutral.
Remains above the moving average, but lacks decisiveness and remains tinged with waiting for events.
impression
Avoid unreasonable pursuit and prioritise checking price movements within the expected range.
More frequent information updates and inspection of scenario assumptions until the event passes.
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, size is controlled, gains are shallow and losses are mechanically executed.
Keep positions light before indicators, and in the event of a sudden change, prioritise calm over following.
checklist
Has the existence of a clear upper break above 1.1750 been confirmed?
Is the support zone at 1.1700-1.1680 holding?
Do you know the time and content of US indicators and key figures' statements?
review
The European hour was marked by buying and the previous day's high was renewed, but after entering New York, following was thin and sluggish, and a break above daily resistance was not confirmed as established.
summary
US interest rate swings are small and the dollar's upside is heavy ahead of the week's FOMC and UK Central Bank meetings, while new material on the UK side is scarce and direction is limited.
A mix of buying and selling on the return, with the short-term confirming both upside and push-back firmness at the same time.
Today's price movements
Buying dominated in early London, testing the 1.3580 level, but stalled thereafter.
After entering New York, the pair converged at 1.3550-1.3600 and did not continue to track higher, closing just ahead of the major highs.
Background and materials
Weakness in US PPI and unemployment insurance claims restrained the US dollar's upside on expectations of a rate cut.
Change in the Bank of England's stance is hard to see, with gilt trends and flows the main short-term drivers.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Resistance is at 1.3600 to 1.3635 Support is at 1.3520 to 1.3500, confirming the reaction.
Momentum is closer to neutral and requires consecutive positives and shallow pushes to continue to the upside
Technical note (mid-term).
The range colour prevails in the medium term as it continues to stagnate in the 1.3470-1.3635 band.
The market continues to hover around the moving average and the direction is still dependent on events
impression
Inspect the quality of price movements within the expected band without forcibly chasing a break before the event.
Prioritise profit-taking and avoid going too deep in situations where upside momentum is slow.
trade observations
Basically, it is a range rotation and the size is controlled, with gains around 1.3580 and losses mechanically below 1.3520 and above 1.3610.
Keep positions light before and after indicators and only consider a forward initial move in case of sudden changes.
checklist
Whether the possibility of a clear break above 1.3600 was confirmed by actual prices and volume?
Have you verified whether the 1.3520 support is maintained and whether it runs after the break?
Have the times of today's indicators and key figures been identified and managed in conjunction with the most recent flows?
review
The US interest rate swing was small ahead of the week's FOMC meeting, and there was a lack of new material on the Australian side.
summary
The external environment is likely to limit the dollar's upside, while the lack of Australian-specific material limits the direction of the dollar.
The push was shallow and the day reaffirmed firmness in the low 0.66s, with a tinge of waiting for a break
Today's price movements
Asia - A phase of buying dominance in Europe, but a return to the previous day's highs and temporary upward pressure.
Stalled in the first half of the New York session, but finished the second half slightly above the previous day's highs and in the centre of the 0.66 range.
Background and materials
Weakness in US PPI and unemployment insurance claims supports interest rate cut speculation and restrains the dollar's upside.
Limited new material from Australia, with Chinese indices and resource market conditions the main cues.
Positional adjustments and flows were relatively high before the event.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Support is 0.6580 to 0.6600 and resistance is 0.6660 to 0.6700, confirming the reaction.
Momentum is closer to neutral and upside requires confirmation of consecutive positives and shallowness of the push
Technical note (mid-term).
The medium-term trend is neutral as it continues to stay in the 0.6520-0.6700 band.
Composition above moving averages but lacking decisiveness and awaiting passage of events
impression
The less headlines there are, the more effective it is to assess the quality of price movements and avoid following them unreasonably.
If the stall continues at a high level, you want to stop and inspect the scenario assumptions.
trade observations
Basis is range rotation, size is controlled, profit-taking priority at 0.6660-0.6700, loss-taking below 0.6580 is mechanically executed.
Keep positions light before indicators and limit to initial forward movement only in case of sudden changes.
checklist
Did you confirm the possibility of a break above 0.6700 and the establishment of a break above 0.6700 in actual and volume terms?
Have you verified whether the 0.6580 support is maintained and whether there is a run after the break?
Have you organised the time and content of today's US indicators and related headlines?
FX Diary.