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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★★ | July Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | July Industrial production [month-on-month]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Jul Industrial production [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Jul Manufacturing production index [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Sept University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, preliminary |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook.
In the US, an increase in unemployment insurance claims and a calming of inflation indicators have continued to raise awareness of the prospect of interest rate cuts. The USD/JPY pair ended the day slightly off the previous day's lows as dollar selling prevailed following the release of the previous day's indicators. Today, while keeping in mind the possibility of another test of lower prices, attention should also be paid to the impact of position adjustments and rebalancing due to weekend factors.
The US CPI came in line with expectations and maintained expectations of a rate cut, which restrained the dollar's upside, while the ECB left rates unchanged and President Lagarde stressed that her decision would depend on the data, which provided support for the euro. The Eurodollar remained in a wait-and-see attitude during European hours, but the release of indicators in New York led to dollar selling and the pair ended the day slightly above the previous day's highs. Today, the market will be looking for the right time to push back, while also paying attention to the impact of flows due to the weekend rebalancing.
In the US, a rise in unemployment insurance claims and weak PPI were confirmed, limiting the dollar's upside. The pound dollar remained wait-and-see during European hours, but following the release of indicators in New York, dollar selling gained the upper hand and ended the day at the previous day's highs. Today, while being aware of the timing of push-backs, attention should also be paid to the impact of flows due to the weekend rebalancing.
The US PPI came in below expectations and the dollar's upside was restrained by lingering interest rate cut speculation. The AUD/USD was slightly lower until European hours, but dollar selling intensified following the release of indicators in New York, and the pair closed at the previous day's highs. No clear resistance was found even on a daily basis, and while exploring the upside, we need to be aware of opportunities for push-backs, while also paying attention to the impact of the weekend rebalancing.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In European hours, the yen was predominantly bought following a fall in US long-term interest rates and reports that Takaichi was leading in the LDP presidential election. Dollar selling then intensified through New York hours. The market swung up and down as rebalancing flows ahead of the weekend also overlapped. As a result, the day ended with a lack of a sense of direction.
EURUSD tested the previous day's highs in European hours, but the US long-term interest rates fell again, leading to dollar selling and heavy upside. The day was also marked by ups and downs due to rebalancing demand ahead of the weekend.
The GBPUSD briefly tested the upside during European hours, but the US long-term interest rate fell again and the US dollar sold off, weighing on the upside. The market swung up and down. As a result, the day was marked by a lack of direction and a strong sense of adjustment in view of the weekend.
AUDUSD saw a test of the previous day's highs in European hours, but the US long-term interest rates fell again and dollar selling strengthened, weighing on the upside. The day was marked by a strong weekend adjustment.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
US unemployment insurance claims rise, raising awareness of labour market weakness
Inflation indicators remain subdued and the prospect of interest rate cuts continues to be a concern.
USDJPY slightly off its lows as dollar sales were dominated by the previous day's indicators.
Assumed range
Assume price movements around 146.80-148.00.
The downside is likely to be around 146.80 and the upside around 148.00.
Expect amplitude within a range, taking into account fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on selling on the return.
Use short-term returns to build positions in stages.
If the low continues, prioritise gains and refrain from following.
trigger
If the pair breaks above 147.90, opportunities for a return to the market may be limited.
A clear break below 146.80 would likely accelerate selling.
Note that volatility increases during the time of US indicators and key figures' statements.
override condition
A return strategy is likely to be negated if 147.90 is exceeded at the close.
Selling interest also recedes if the line remains clearly above the short-term moving average.
Scenario needs to be revised in the event of sudden yen selling materials.
risk event
US CPI and other inflation-related indicators are due to be released.
Beware of the impact of position adjustments due to weekend rebalancing.
Geopolitical risks and statements by monetary authorities are also temporary sources of volatility.
position management
Keep position sizes to 50-70% of normal.
Interest rate is set at around 146.80-147.00 before
Stop-losses are managed on the basis of 147.90 or above.
checklist
Have you checked the schedule for the release of key US indicators?
Are you aware of the nearest support at 146.80 and resistance at 148.00?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place to anticipate fluctuations due to weekend factors?
Market summary
US CPI in line with expectations, maintaining expectations of a rate cut and limiting the dollar's upside.
ECB keeps rates unchanged, with President Lagarde stressing that the decision will depend on the data.
EURUSD ended the day at the previous day's highs as dollar selling dominated the NY hour.
Assumed range
Assumed range around 1.1660-1.1760
The downside is likely to be around 1.1660 and the upside around 1.1760, a near-term resistance zone.
Assumed to be within a range, taking into account fluctuations caused by weekend flows
tactics
The basic policy is to respond mainly by buying at the push point.
Consider entry only after confirming a rebound at short-term support
Prioritise gains and avoid excessive chasing at higher prices.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1760 is likely to accelerate buying.
A break below 1.1660 could lead to more adjustment in the short term.
Note that volatility increases during the time of US index releases.
override condition
Push-back strategy likely to be negated if 1.1640 is maintained at the close below 1.1640.
Buying interest also recedes if the moving average remains below the moving average.
Assumptions are broken if sudden dollar-buying material emerges.
risk event
Note the continuing market reaction to the US CPI.
Potential for unbalanced flows due to weekend rebalancing to create sudden price movements.
Statements by ECB officials could influence the direction of the euro.
position management
Keep position size to 50-70% of normal.
The interest rate should be set before 1.1740-1.1760.
Losses should be based on a clear cut below 1.1640.
checklist
Have you checked the market reaction after the US CPI?
Are you aware of the nearest support at 1.1660 and resistance at 1.1760?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place to prepare for fluctuations due to weekend factors?
Market summary
US dollar upside restrained by US jobless claims increase and PPI weakness
GBPUSD was little changed in the European hour, but dollar selling strengthened in the New York hour and reached the previous day's highs.
Markets are interested in push-buying, with an awareness of flows due to weekend factors.
Assumed range
Assumes a range centred around 1.3500-1.3600
The downside is likely to be supported around 1.3500 and the upside around 1.3600.
Consideration of the possibility of temporarily increased volatility due to weekend rebalancing
tactics
The basic policy is to develop on the basis of push-buying.
Consider entry in installments while checking short-term support.
Be aware of the need to limit risk by taking quick profits at high prices
trigger
A clear break above 1.3600 is likely to increase buying momentum.
Short-term adjustment likely to proceed once below 1.3500.
Note that volatility increases during the time of the release of major indicators such as the US CPI.
override condition
Push-back strategy likely to be negated if 1.3480 is clearly broken and held at the close
Buying interest also recedes if the line moves below the medium-term moving average.
Assumptions need to be revised in the event of sudden dollar-buying factors.
risk event
US CPI release is the main event influencing the direction of the dollar
Flow bias due to weekend rebalancing causes temporary fluctuations
UK economic indicators and fiscal reports could also move the pound.
position management
Keep position size to 50-70% of normal.
Gains are set between 1.3580 and before 1.3600.
Losses should be clearly below 1.3480.
checklist
Have you checked the time and market forecast for the US CPI release?
Are you aware of the key support 1.3500 and resistance 1.3600?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place in anticipation of weekend flows?
Market summary
US PPI lower than expected, maintaining expectations of a rate cut and restraining the dollar's upward movement.
AUDUSD was small until the European hour, but reached the previous day's highs following the NY hour's indicators.
Even on a daily basis, no clear resistance is in sight and the market is in a phase of searching for a higher price point.
Assumed range
Assume price movements around 0.6590-0.6680.
The downside is likely to be around 0.6600 and the upside around 0.6670, a near-term resistance zone.
Consideration of the possibility of increased volatility even within the range due to rebalancing caused by weekend factors
tactics
Basic policy is to buy at the push
It is useful to enter the market in stages, checking short-term support.
Be aware of limiting risk by taking quick profits after reaching the upper price.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6670 is likely to accelerate buying.
A break below 0.6600 is likely to strengthen the adjustment in the short term.
Beware of increased volatility during the time of the release of major indicators such as the US CPI.
override condition
A push-back strategy is likely to be negated if 0.6580 is maintained at the close below 0.6580.
Buying interest also recedes if the short-term moving averages continue to fall below the short-term moving averages
Assumptions are broken when events cause sudden dollar buying.
risk event
US CPI releases are key events influencing the direction of the dollar
Flows from weekend rebalancing cause sudden fluctuations
Results of Chinese economic indicators can also be an indirect influencing factor on the Australian dollar.
position management
Keep position size to 50-70% of normal.
The interest rate is set before 0.6660-0.6680.
Losses should be based on a clear cut below 0.6580.
checklist
Have you checked the time of the US CPI release and the market forecast?
Are you aware of the nearest support 0.6600 and resistance 0.6670?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place for weekend flows?
AI postcards: today's market
review
A day of ups and downs, with the yen buying in the European hour and the dollar selling in the New York hour.
summary
The yen is buying as US long-term interest rates fall and domestic political news becomes a factor.
Selling of the dollar accelerated in the New York time against a backdrop of indicators and flows.
Price movements lacked direction, partly due to weekend rebalancing
Today's price movements
The pair was seen pushing lower to around 147.80 in the European hour.
In New York, dollar selling strengthened and temporarily tested the 147.50 area.
Prices continued to swing up and down throughout the day, with limited price fluctuations.
Background and materials
US long-term interest rates fell again, weakening support for the dollar.
Yen buying conscious following reports of the LDP presidential election.
Adjustments and rebalancing ahead of the weekend amplify market swings
Technical memorandum (short term)
Confirmation of recent support around 147.50.
The area around 148.20 is a level where the upside is likely to be perceived as heavy.
Price movements are likely to remain within a range in the short term.
Technical note (mid-term).
Lack of direction on a daily basis, but moving averages are converging
Shape confirms strengthening of the return trend above 148.50.
A level below 146.80 raises medium-term caution to the downside.
impression
The team reacted to the material, but was inconclusive throughout.
Market participants maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to multiple factors, including interest rates and political factors.
Sustained trend formation after the passage of the event needs to be identified.
trade observations
Environment in which a range strategy is considered effective in the short term.
Thoroughly check support and resistance and be aware of small gains.
Careful lot management is important to prepare for irregular price movements due to weekend factors
checklist
Check trends in long-term US interest rates.
Note news headlines related to the LDP presidential election.
Wary of irregular flows due to weekend rebalancing
review
A test of the previous day's highs in the European hour, but a fall in long-term US interest rates led to dollar selling, which swung up and down.
summary
A test of higher prices was seen in the European hour, but the dollar was subsequently sold off.
Weekend factors added to rebalancing demand, resulting in a lack of directional movement.
The situation continued to be unstable towards the end of the game, with ups and downs.
Today's price movements
The previous day's highs were tested at one stage, but dollar selling prevailed as US long-term interest rates fell.
From Europe to the New York time, the dollar remained unidirectional, despite being aware of a weakening trend.
There was a noticeable lack of directional movement due to rebalancing, which also involved supply and demand.
Background and materials
US long-term interest rates fell again, restricting the dollar's upside.
In Europe, no major economic indicators were announced and prices moved amid material difficulties.
Market participants were more likely to adopt an adjustment attitude ahead of the weekend.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the market tested the previous day's high but failed to break it and fell back.
The area around 1.1300 continued to be perceived as resistance to the upside.
The lower price was perceived as support at around 1.1200.
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily trend lacks direction but remains within a range.
In a phase of increasing convergence of moving averages and awareness of energy accumulation.
In the medium term, the range of 1.1200-1.1350 is likely to continue to be the axis of development.
impression
The impression is that US interest rate trends are influencing the direction of the dollar amid a lack of materials.
The euro itself was mainly moving against the dollar, with few factors contributing to its strength or weakness.
The market as a whole was characterised by an increasing adjustment attitude ahead of the weekend.
trade observations
In the short term, the failure of the test of higher prices confirmed the upward pressure.
Trading to take advantage of rebounds and falls within the range appeared to be effective.
A strategy of moderately adjusting position sizes in view of weekend factors is considered safe.
checklist
Check trends in long-term US interest rates.
Continued awareness of the 1.1200-1.1350 range.
Be aware of the risk of fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing.
review
The European hour briefly tested the upside, but dollar selling strengthened against the backdrop of lower US long-term interest rates, and the New York hour swung up and down on the index and weekend rebalancing.
summary
A day with a lack of direction, with a strong sense of adjustment with the weekend in mind.
A wide range of movements were observed, from an upward test in the European hour to a decline and rebound in the New York hour.
Closing at both highs and lows, but with unsustainable transition.
Today's price movements
In European hours, the previous day's trend was followed by a temporary upward movement
The upside remained heavy due to another fall in US interest rates and selling pressure on the dollar.
In the New York hour, indicators and rebalancing demand were intertwined, leading to a swing in the market.
Background and materials
US long-term interest rates fell again, weighing on the dollar
US economic indicators fell short of market expectations, which helped to support the dollar sell-off.
Demand for rebalancing towards the weekend shook the market as flows.
Technical memorandum (short term)
Short-term leg showed a sharp drop after a test of the upside and a rebound around the support line
Returns after the lows were limited and remained within a short-term range
Indicators show no signs of overheating and search for equilibrium in the swing range
Technical note (mid-term).
Both highs and lows on a daily basis, reflecting a lack of direction.
The move was unbalanced, with weight at the upper end of the range and firmness at the lower end of the range coexisting.
Weekly trend still shows no significant trend and remains sideways
impression
Interest rate trends and rebalancing effects combined, with a mix of fundamentals and flows.
While there were noticeable swings up and down, in the end it was difficult to get a sense of direction.
The environment is likely to continue to be one of waiting for materials.
trade observations
Flexibility was needed to see through the upward trend early and capture short-term reversals.
Returns after the lows were limited, making the decision to switch between gains and losses important.
The strategy of not carrying over positions in a strongly adjusting market and sticking to intraday rotation appeared to be effective.
checklist
Check US long-term interest rates and the reaction of the dollar.
Understanding the flow impact of weekend rebalancing
Be aware of the lower and upper levels of the range in the short term
review
The dollar tested the previous day's highs in the European hour, but a fall in long-term US interest rates strengthened the dollar sell-off, and in the New York hour it swung up and down on indicators and weekend rebalancing.
summary
The Australian dollar only temporarily tested the upside as lower US interest rates weighed on the dollar.
The New York time was unstable, with large swings up and down, due to indicators and rebalancing demand.
Overall, there was a lack of direction and the trend remained strongly adjustment-oriented.
Today's price movements
The European hour was marked by the previous day's highs, but then the market was seen to be sluggish.
Another fall in US interest rates strengthened dollar sales, while the Australian dollar's gains were limited.
The New York time was marked by up and down swings, with the addition of weekend factors.
Background and materials
US long-term interest rates fell again, adding to the selling pressure on the dollar.
US economic indicators fell short of market expectations, supporting dollar sales
Flows from weekend rebalancing additionally amplified market volatility.
Technical memorandum (short term)
In the short term, the movement was directionless, with a push back after testing the previous day's highs
There were some downside stops near the support line, but resilience was limited.
The market continued to move up and down within a range and was dominated by rotational trading by short-term sources.
Technical note (mid-term).
Tested highs on a daily basis but were pushed back at the close, with a sense of upside
No clear signs of a trend, still within a range
No sustained direction was identified due to strong noise from adjustments ahead of the weekend.
impression
The aspect of the market differed between the European and New York hours, strongly influenced by short-term fundamental factors.
Flow factors, such as rebalancing demand, were involved, and there was a difficult mix of real demand and speculation.
The market as a whole showed a strong wait-and-see attitude in anticipation of the week ahead.
trade observations
A conscious response to the risk of a pushback was required, rather than following against a test of the upside.
A strategy of reducing position size was felt to be effective, assuming a swing in the weekend factor
The short-term priority was to make profitable decisions, and flexible decisions were needed to avoid sticking to a direction.
checklist
Check US long-term interest rates.
Awareness of flow through weekend rebalancing
Identify the upper and lower levels of the daily range
FX Diary.