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| Hours. | country | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous results | Forecast. | Result. | Difference between results and expectations | Post-announcement rate fluctuations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | European Central Bank (ECB) policy rates |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI) [m/m]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index) [MoM]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI core index) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | New unemployment insurance applications for the previous week |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Number of people receiving unemployment insurance continuation for the previous week |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | Aug Consumer Price Index (CPI) [y/y]. |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Aug Monthly financial balance |
graphical representation
Graph data could not be retrieved.
Displays a graph of rate fluctuations following the release of an index.
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Indicators of high importance have been selected. Not all indicators are listed.
Dignitaries' statements/closed
| Type. | Hours. | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| important person's statement | 🇪🇺 Europe | Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), regular press conference |
Today's Outlook.
With the release of the US inflation indicator, the strength of interest rate cut speculation is widely expected to determine the direction of the dollar. Another important indicator is due today, and aggressive price movements are unlikely to be expected until then.
In the European area, investor confidence is shown to be declining, while the ECB maintains its stance of keeping interest rates unchanged for the time being, with President Lagarde's comments drawing attention to the direction of monetary policy. In the US, interest rate cuts are being considered ahead of the price index, and the composition of the US dollar's movement is influencing the euro. Ahead of today's policy event, active trading is likely to remain in abeyance and a wait-and-see attitude is likely to continue.
The previous day, GBPUSD showed firmness while testing the downside. With the release of PPI and CPI in the US today, the strength of interest rate cut speculation is likely to influence the direction of the US dollar. The market is expected to take a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the key indicators today, making it difficult to get a sense of direction.
The previous day, the AUD/USD rallied to around 0.66 and reached a temporary high, but was pushed back by daily resistance. Today, the market is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of another important US index.
Hints for tomorrow as seen in retrospect
In the US, an increase in unemployment insurance claims was confirmed, raising awareness of the weakness in the labour market, while inflation indicators remained subdued and the market continued to speculate on a rate cut.USDJPY was bought during European hours and tested Pivot R2, but US indicators released in the New York hours led to dollar selling. The USDJPY closed slightly lower than the previous day's low as selling prevailed.
The ECB left its policy rate unchanged and President Lagarde stressed that the decision would depend on the data, indicating a cautious stance on the timing of additional rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US PPI came in lower than expected, which raised awareness of the possibility of a rate cut and restrained the US dollar's upward movement. The price action remained modest and wait-and-see until the European market, but the release of the indicators in the New York hour led to stronger dollar selling and EURUSD closed slightly higher than the previous day's high.
The US dollar's upside was weighed down by weaker-than-expected US PPI and sustained rate cut speculation; GBPUSD fell below the previous day's low in European hours, but after the release of the index in New York, dollar selling prevailed and the pair renewed the previous day's high. As a result, the pair renewed both the previous day's lows and highs, making it a day of large swings.
In the US, PPI came in lower than expected, which helped to limit the US dollar's upside, creating a buying environment for the AUDUSD. The price movement remained modest until European hours, but following the release of the indicators in New York, dollar selling took over and AUDUSD significantly renewed the previous day's highs. The pair also rose with substance on a daily basis and closed in a form that broke through resistance at the daily level.
market information
| classification | Tokyo | London. | New York. |
|
session (Daylight Savings Time). |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* The PonTan chart paints the background according to the market session above.
AI's move: how to attack today?
Market summary
A phase in which the strength of interest rate cut speculation is in the spotlight ahead of the release of US inflation indicators.
The US dollar remained directionless against the backdrop of the BOJ's interest rate hike speculation and Japanese political uncertainty.
The previous day was dominated by range trading in the low to mid ¥147s, with no clear breakthroughs seen.
Assumed range
Around 146.80 - around 147.80.
The upside is 147.75-148.00 and the downside is a support zone at 146.30-146.50.
Be prepared for changes in key indicators, keeping in mind that the range will remain within the range.
tactics
The basic situation assumes range rotation.
In a move to test the downside, consider pushing the price in the low ¥146s.
When approaching the upside, a return sale should be factored in, and an awareness of taking profits in small increments is necessary.
trigger
A break above 147.80 could strengthen short-term buying momentum.
A break below 146.30 requires caution against weakness.
The release of key inflation indicators such as the US CPI and PPI are likely to trigger.
override condition
If a clear break above 148.00 is established, the range strategy is negated.
Conversely, the tactic should also be modified if the pair settles well below 146.00.
Reset scenarios in the event of unexpected policy statements or interventionist measures.
risk event
US CPI and PPI results.
Media reports and key figures' statements on the BOJ's policy outlook.
Political developments in Japan and the resulting change in monetary policy stance.
position management
Assume in-range trading and keep position sizes lower than usual.
Take profits in the range of 20-40 pips, and be sure to take profits without being greedy.
Stop-losses should be placed outside the expected range to avoid excessive unrealised losses.
checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release time and forecast?
Are the levels of key support and resistance known?
Are position sizes and stop-loss lines set in advance?
Market summary
Investor confidence in Europe declines, leading to a situation of uncertainty about the economic outlook.
ECB poised to keep interest rates unchanged, with markets watching Lagarde's remarks
In the US, the strength of interest rate cut speculation is influencing the direction of the euro ahead of the price index.
Assumed range
Around 1.1590 - around 1.1780
The upside is considered to be 1.1775-1.1800, while the downside is the support zone at 1.1590-1.1620.
Basic scenario is to stay within the range, but be prepared for a break after the event
tactics
Scenes where range rotation is the basic tactic for the time being.
Consider push-buying in the low 1.1600s and sell back around 1.1770.
Focus on short-term trading and take profits in small increments to prepare for sharp fluctuations after an event.
trigger
If the market closes above 1.1780, the buyback may strengthen.
Beware of a move downwards if below 1.1590.
US CPI and PPI results and ECB President's comments likely to be key triggers
override condition
Range strategy invalidated if 1.1800 is clearly established above
Conversely, if the price falls significantly below 1.1550 and settles downwards, a review of tactics is also required.
Reset scenarios in the event of unexpected key figures or monetary policy changes.
risk event
ECB President Lagarde's press conference after the ECB Governing Council meeting
Publication of US CPI and PPI.
Release of investor confidence and economic indicators in the European area.
position management
Position sizes adjusted sparingly for small increments within the range
Aim for a profit margin of around 20-40 pips to ensure that you build up your earnings.
Stop-losses are set outside the range to limit risk in the event of sudden changes.
checklist
Have you checked the time and expected value of the US CPI release?
Are key support and resistance levels known?
Are position sizes and stop-loss lines set in advance?
Market summary
Inflation remains high in the UK, a situation that is likely to push back the start of BoE rate cuts.
In the US, with the PPI and CPI ahead, the strength of interest rate cut speculation is likely to influence the direction of the US dollar.
The previous day, the pound dollar tested the downside, but showed firmness in the low 1.34s
Assumed range
Around 1.3430 - around 1.3600
The upside is considered to be 1.3600 and the downside is the support zone at 1.3420-1.3450.
Situations where trading within a range is assumed to be likely to continue.
tactics
The basic idea is to assume a range rotation and mainly trade using the upper and lower levels.
Consider push-buying at around 1.3450 and return to the market at 1.3580-1.3600.
Take small gains from a short-term perspective and prepare for a sense of direction after the event.
trigger
A clear break above 1.3600 could strengthen the buyback.
Downward pressure is conscious if 1.3420 is broken below.
US PPI and CPI releases expected to be the main triggers.
override condition
Range strategy invalidated if it settles above 1.3620
Assumptions also need to be revised in case of a large drop below 1.3400 and fixation.
Review tactics in the event of unexpected events, such as surprise statements by policymakers
risk event
US PPI and CPI results.
UK inflation-related indicators and retail sales trends.
Press coverage of statements and policy stances of BoE officials
position management
Keep position sizes modest and limit risk until the event passes.
Aim for a profit margin of 20-40 pips, with priority given to accumulation.
Set stop-losses outside the expected range and avoid large reversals.
checklist
Have you checked the US PPI and CPI release times and market forecasts?
Are key support and resistance levels known?
Are position sizes and stop-loss lines set in advance?
Market summary
Australia reports improved business activity, while consumer sentiment weakens
In the US, with the PPI and CPI ahead, the strength of interest rate cut speculation is influencing the overall dollar situation.
The previous day, the Australian dollar was briefly higher at around 0.66, but fell back at daily resistance
Assumed range
Around 0.6550 - around 0.6640
The upper boundary is 0.6625-0.6640 and the lower boundary is the 0.6550-0.6570 support zone.
Range based, but be prepared for movement after the index release.
tactics
For the time being, the scene is mainly range rotation.
Consider push-buying around 0.6560 and sell back around 0.6630.
Focus on small gains and be flexible to changes in direction after an index release
trigger
If a clear break above 0.6640, upward momentum will be noted.
Downward pressure may intensify if 0.6550 is breached
US PPI and CPI expected to be key triggers
override condition
If the range strategy is established above 0.6660, the range strategy is disabled.
Conversely, a tactical correction is also necessary if the value falls well below 0.6530 and becomes entrenched.
Review scenarios in the event of sudden keynote statements or policy changes.
risk event
US PPI and CPI results.
Trends in Australian consumer inflation expectations.
Fluctuations in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices.
position management
Moderate position size and limit risk before events.
Aim for gains of 15 to 30 pips, with priority given to short-term accumulation.
Losses are placed outside the expected range to limit losses in the event of sudden fluctuations.
checklist
Have you checked the US PPI and CPI release times and forecasts?
Are you aware of the schedule of Australian and China-related indicators?
Have position sizes and stop-loss settings been set in advance?
AI postcards: today's market
review
USDJPY slightly off the previous day's lows on US dollar selling following the US index.
summary
Rise in US unemployment insurance claims signalled weakness in the labour market
Inflation indicators remained subdued, and the market remained on the lookout for interest rate cuts
USDJPY tested the upside in the European hour, but stalled and hit a low in the NY hour.
Today's price movements
The pair was bought during European hours and rose to around 147.90.
Tried Pivot R2 but it did not lead to a move above 148.00
Dollar sales strengthened in response to US indicators during the New York hour, falling to around 147.20.
Background and materials
A rise in US unemployment insurance claims was a factor in the US dollar sell-off.
US inflation indicators settled down and did not reduce the prospect of a rate cut.
On the Japanese side, speculation about policy changes was limited, and the yen's buying was influenced by US indicators.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 148.00 was strongly perceived as upside resistance.
Short-term support around 147.20 and temporarily halted to the downside.
RSI below neutral zone, indicating short-term selling pressure
Technical note (mid-term).
The range between 147.00 and 148.50 is still in place.
A negative daily line was formed, confirming the upward pressure.
The 200-day moving average remains a medium-term indicator
impression
Changes in the US labour market have had a significant impact on the direction of the dollar.
Inflation is calming down, leading to persistent interest rate cut speculation.
It is felt that the environment continues to be prone to swinging up and down depending on the material
trade observations
The strategy of responding to the European hour's upside test by selling was effective.
Short-term selling positions worked during the accelerated dollar selling phase in the New York time.
Needed to respond flexibly to sudden changes following index releases while avoiding high prices
checklist
Have you checked the schedule for the release of the US CPI and employment-related indicators?
Are you aware of Pivot and key support and resistance levels?
Are stop-loss settings and position sizes adjusted in advance?
review
EURUSD hit the previous day's highs as the ECB remained unchanged and US PPI weakness led to dollar selling.
summary
ECB leaves policy rates unchanged, with President Lagarde emphasising her reliance on data
Cautiousness about additional rate cuts was a supportive factor for the euro
US PPI came in lower than expected, restraining the dollar's upward movement.
Today's price movements
The European market continued to move slightly around 1.1700
When the US indices were released in the New York time, dollar sales strengthened and began to rise.
It eventually closed at the 1.1730 level, slightly above the previous day's highs.
Background and materials
The ECB did not rush to cut interest rates further and maintained monetary policy flexibility
In the US, PPI results came in below market expectations, supporting expectations of a rate cut.
Concerns about geopolitical risks and trade frictions in the background, which affected investor sentiment.
Technical memorandum (short term)
1.1700 was identified as short-term support.
The area around 1.1740 was seen as an upside resistance, and the trend after the breakthrough was closely watched.
RSI moved up from neutral territory, suggesting buying pressure
Technical note (mid-term).
The daily rise with substance was confirmed, increasing the upside potential.
The focus was on whether the 1.1650-1.1750 range could be broken above.
The slope of the moving average has stabilised and acted as medium-term support
impression
ECB and US index results coincided with a short-term trend of predominant dollar selling.
The underlying tone of the euro was underpinned, but remained unstable, with the direction changing depending on the material
Market participants remained focused on event risk
trade observations
European markets were not very dynamic, and many occasions were not suitable for short-term trading.
Immediate response was required to sudden price movements after the release of the NY time index.
Earlier decisions to take profit or cut losses were effective in managing risk.
checklist
Have you checked the time and expected value of the US CPI release?
Are you aware of recent support and resistance?
Are position sizes and stop-loss levels set in advance?
review
Weak US PPI led to dollar selling, with GBPUSD hitting both the previous day's low and high.
summary
US PPI came in lower than expected, and the US dollar's upside was restrained by the prospect of a rate cut.
Inflation and fiscal risks remained a concern in the UK, as early interest rate cuts were receding.
GBPUSD expanded both above and below the previous day's range, with the price range widening.
Today's price movements
The price temporarily fell below 1.3450 in European hours and hit the previous day's low.
Dollar sales strengthened and rose to around 1.3600 following the release of the index in the New York time.
As a result, the previous day's highs were also renewed and the movement swung up and down
Background and materials
US PPI results were lower than expected, prompting dollar sales.
In the UK, uncertainty over when the BoE will start cutting interest rates and inflation fears underpinned the pound.
Market participants moved to make short-term adjustments ahead of the US CPI release.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The area around 1.3450 was perceived as support to the downside.
Upside resistance around 1.3600, suggesting room for a short-term pullback.
RSI tilted from neutral to slightly stronger direction
Technical note (mid-term).
The 1.3420-1.3600 range remains in place.
The previous day's highs on a daily basis have opened up more room for higher prices.
Moving averages provide underlying support, but sustainability remains to be determined
impression
The market environment continues to move significantly depending on US indicators.
GBPUSD was noticeably searching for direction while testing the break above and below.
Many traders ended up waiting for the event and reacting in the short term.
trade observations
Selling was effective during the downside test in the European hour.
Buying back in the New York time, short-term profit-taking decisions were required.
The importance of position sizing was reaffirmed as the price range widened.
checklist
Have you checked the time and market forecast for the US CPI release?
Are key support and resistance levels known?
Are position sizes and stop-loss lines set in advance?
review
Weak US PPI led to a sell-off in the dollar, with AUDUSD hitting a new high well above the previous day's highs.
summary
US inflation indicators fell short of expectations, weighing on the US dollar's upside, as the prospect of a rate cut became more conscious.
The Australian dollar was easy to buy against a backdrop of rising domestic inflation expectations and other factors.
Australian dollar buying accelerated after the release of the index in New York time and maintained an upward trend towards the end of the day.
Today's price movements
Small movements continued around 0.6620 until European hours.
The release of the index in the New York hour triggered a strong sell-off in the dollar, which rose above 0.6660.
The closing price remained in the 0.6660 level and closed with a rise in substance.
Background and materials
US PPI came in lower than expected, weighing on the dollar on stronger interest rate cut speculation.
Rising consumer inflation expectations in Australia provided support for the Australian dollar
Demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset has receded as the global mood of risk appetite has strengthened.
Technical memorandum (short term)
The 0.6620 area acted as recent support.
The pair clearly broke above 0.6660, and the short-term upside potential is now being recognised.
RSI shifted from neutral to slightly stronger direction
Technical note (mid-term).
The rise with substance was confirmed on a daily basis, which led to a breakthrough of resistance.
In the medium term, the focus is on whether the range of 0.6550-0.6670 can be broken above.
Moving averages also provide support, increasing the stability of the underlying tone
impression
The environment continues to be prone to changes in the movement of the dollar depending on the results of US indicators.
In addition to domestic factors, the Australian dollar is structured to be sensitive to the outlook for US monetary policy.
Short-term price movements were led by dollar selling, but we need to assess whether there is continuity.
trade observations
The response to limit position size during the event waiting phase was felt to be effective.
Buying near support and taking profits after reaching resistance worked effectively.
Early settlement decisions contributed to risk management when volatility increased after index releases.
checklist
Have you checked the scheduled release of the US CPI and the market forecast?
Are you aware of recent support and resistance?
Are position sizes and stop-loss levels set in advance?
FX Diary.